OSCAR
RACE 2008
commentary
by Nathaniel R
Approximately
days until Oscar Nomination are announced
precursors:
CRITICS GROUPS: DC * LAFCA * NYFCC * Boston * NYFCO * AWFJ * Chicago * SEFCA *
St. Louis * Florida * San Diego * Phoenix * Las Vegas * Dallas * Houston * Austin *
Toronto * Utah * Detroit * AAFCA * WFCC * Oklahoma * Kansas * OFCS * NSFC
ORGANIZATIONS & GUILDS: Indie Spirit * NBR * Satellites * BFCA * Golden Globes *
AFI * SAG * PGA * WGA * DGA * BAFTA
FINAL
Original Screenplay Predictions
-January 15th |
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| January 15th WGA Nods have to be taken seriously and they've gone with Burn After Reading, Milk, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, The Visitor and The Wrestler. But, as is the case with all guilds, they have far more members (by the thousands and thousands) than the corresponding Oscar writer's branch. So a 5/5 match in such a crowded Original Screenplay year (many films have been honored already by various organizations) seems unlikely. The major snubs seem to be WALL•E and Rachel Getting Married. But will those snubs remain with Oscar? I can't quite let Rachel Getting Married go here since it did get critical and precursor attention and it seems like the the type of well regarded indie that gets in with an acting nod. But maybe not. Nevertheless I'm saying it stays in. Maybe WALL•E doesn't due to that brilliant first 40 silent minutes. Perhaps the writers equate no dialogue with no writing? Or maybe it does. The main problem with WALL•E getting any traction has been that it has so frequently been ineligible at the precursors. The system is set up to cause trouble for animated films. But let's say it sneaks in and I was right last month with my predicted lineup. This is such a deep category this year. Did Happy-Go-Lucky, which won 2 of the 3 most visible / respected critics awards convince the AMPAS writer's branch? Did the Globes convince them to take a look at In Bruges? Did the early screeners and early precursor buzz help Frozen River win a small pocket of #1 fans? Basically I think the category is still nine deep. It'll take #1 fans to get any of them into the shortlist. Discuss
on the blog |
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Milk Dustin Lance Black never nominated prev: 1,1,3,4,3,3,4,4,4,4 |
Vicky
Cristina Barcelona Woody Allen 14 noms / 2 wins prev: 3,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,5 |
The
Visitor Thomas McCarthy
(never nominated) prev: 6,5,4,3,4,4,5,6,--,--(Satellite winner, San
Diego winner, WGA) |
WALL•E Andrew Stanton 2 nominations prev: 5,4,6,7,7,7,6,7,7,9 |
Rachel
Getting Married Jenny Lumet never nominated prev: 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,5,5,3 |
| nominations:
Indie Spirit, OFCS, WGA, BAFTA wins: SEFCA, San Francisco, Dallas, Boston |
nominations:
WGA wins: -- |
nominations:
WGA wins: Satellite, San Diego |
nominations: OFCS wins: Chicago, AWFJ |
nominations:
BFCA, Satellite, Indie Spirit (first screenplay), Chicago wins: NYFCC, DC, Toronto, Utah, WFCC |
| Selling
point: Undeniably moving story. A strong Best Picture contender. |
Selling
point: Oscar's most beloved screenwriter, his second biggest hit in
recent years and it has a viable acting contender |
Selling
point: A small but moving gem that is definitely in the mix for Best Actor. Cross category support helps you keep buzz. |
Selling
point: A great writer/director, an optimistic film and everyone knows
it's a classic even if they're foolishly not nominating it for Best
Picture |
Selling
point: Dramedies do well here. The good ones are zingy. Strong critical response and a passionate fanbase |
Other
Possibilities |
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| 6
The
Wrestler Robert
D Siegel never nominated prev: 9,10,5,5,8,10,--,--,
--,-- (WGA, OFCS nominee, Kansas winner) 7 Happy-Go-Lucky Mike Leigh 3 nominations (LAFCA & NSFC winner) prev: 4,7,7,6,5,5,3,1,1,2 8 Burn After Reading Coen Bros (3 noms / 2 wins) (BAFTA and WGA Nominee) prev: --,--, 11,12,12,12, 8,9, 10,11 9 In Bruges Martin McDonaugh prev: 8,9,15,15,15,13,12,10, --,-- (BAFTA, Chicago & OFCS nominee, Phoenix winner) |
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Other
Screenplays That Have Managed "Best" Citations |
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| Changeling
-J Michael Straczynski (BAFTA nominee) |
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prediction
history |
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September
& October 12th: Happy-Go-Lucky, Milk, Rachel
Getting Married, Vicky Cristina Barcelona,
The Visitor falling out: Baby Mama Michael McCullers prev: 19, * The Edge of Love Sharman Macdonald prev: 15,15 * Fireflies in the Garden Dennis Lee prev: 19, 18 * The Young Victoria Julian Fellowes (1 nom / 1 win) prev: 14,14, 12,10 * Lakeview Terrace David Loughery & Howard Korder prev: 19,19, 20, 20 * Two Lovers James Gray & Ric Menello prev: 17,17, 17,14 * Hamlet 2 Pam Brady & Andrew Fleming prev: 20,15, 16,13 * Crossing Over Wayne Kramer prev: 16, 20, 18,17 * Skin Helen Crawley and Anthony Fabian prev: 10,12, 14,16 * Che Peter Buchman prev: 11,11,11,9,6 * Waltz With Bashir prev: 15,18,18,13, Seven Pounds Grant Nieporte prev: 13,14,15,13, 11,12 Gran Torino(NBR WINNER) Nick Shenk (never nom'ed) prev: 9,9,6,--,--,--,--,-- Australia (SATELLITE nominee) Lurhmann, Harwood, Beatty and Flanagan prev: 10,8,9,8,9,8,6, 7Last Chance Harvey Joel Hopkins prev: 12,13,--,--,---,---,--,-- I've Loved You So Long prev: 13,10,10,--,--,--,--,-- Changeling J Michael Straczynski (never nominated) prev: 14,14,14,6,7,3,3,8 Burn After Reading Coen Bros (3 noms / 2 wins) prev: 11,12,12,12, 8,9, 10,11 Jan 4th Happy-Go-Lucky wins the NSFC. My goodness but this category runs deep. The Writer's Guild nominations will be interesting as much for their inclusions as their snubs Dec 15th The Globes and most of the precursors are only voting Adapted Screenplays in their "best" lists this year so they're of little help to us. We go by simple buzz and the films themselves Nov
22nd Like Best Actress I see this
as a six film race for five slots. I've left WALL•E
out but maybe that's not wise. Oct 12th I have a tough time imagining that Rachel Getting Married (beautifully written by the daughter of an Oscar favorite) and Vicky Cristina Barcelona (penned by Oscar's all time favorite screenwriter) will be shut out. Beyond that... there's plenty of competition. Sept
20th |
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FINAL
Adapted Screenplay Predictions - January 15th |
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| January 15th WGA Nods have to be taken seriously and they've gone with Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire. And obviously given a super shallow field this year those five all have great shots. I'm guessing The Dark Knight can't be nominated in every category though and I think The Reader has done very well in the precursors given how it's made virtually no money and it's fairly cool emotionally.
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Slumdog
Millionaire Simon Beaufoy (adapting Q & A by Vikas Swarup) 1 nomination 1,1,1,1,2,2, --,--,--,-- |
Frost/Nixon Peter Morgan (adapting his own play) 1 nomination prev: 4,4,4,4,1,1,1,2,2,5 |
The
Curious Case of Benjamin Button Eric Roth (adapting F Scott Fitzgerald's short story) 3 noms / 1 win prev: 3,3,6,2,5,5,3,5,6,2 |
Doubt John Patrick Shanley (adapting his own play) 1 nom / 1 win prev: 2,2,2,3,3,3,2,1,1,1 |
The
Reader David Hare (adapting Bernard Schlink's novel) 1 nomination prev: 5,5,5,6,--,--,14,15,14,6 |
| nominations:
Globes,
BFCA, Satellite, Chicago, OFCS, USC Scripter, WGA, BAFTA wins: NBR (TIE), DC, NYFCO, SEFCA, San Diego, Phoenix, Houston, Chicago, Florida, Oklahoma, Kansas, GLOBES |
nominations:
Globes,
BFCA, Satellite, Chicago, OFCS, WGA, BAFTA wins: AWFJ, Satellites, St. Louis, Las Vegas, San Francisco |
nominations: Globes, BFCA, Satellite, Chicago, OFCS, USC Scripter, WGA, BAFTA wins: NBR (tie) |
nominations:
Globes,
BFCA, Satellite, Chicago, WGA, wins: -- |
nominations:
Globes,
Satellite, USC Scripter, BAFTA wins: -- |
| Selling
point: Crowd pleaser. Will easily stand out from the crowd |
Selling
point: That Pulitzer and TONY + Thematic drama + heavyweight cast |
Selling
point: Ambitious, big, auteurial. Interesting premise |
Selling
point: The TONY prestige + The Queen momentum + politics |
Selling
point: Holocaust & WW II are favored Oscar themes + Kate Winslet's Year |
| Other Possibilities | ||||
| 7
The Dark Knight Jonathan Nolan (adapting DC
Comics) never nominated prev: 7,7,7,7,8,9,7,9,13,14
(WGA Nom, Chicago nom, Austin win)nominee) 8 Revolutionary Road Justin Haythe (adapting Richard Yates) never nominated prev: 6,6,3,5,6,7,6,6,7,7 (Satellite and USC Scripter and BAFTA nominee) |
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9 Gomorra new 10 The Class new 11 Let the Right One In (OFCS nominee) prev: 9,new 12 Iron Man (USC Scripter nominee) prev: 10, new |
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prediction
history |
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Nov
22, Dec 14th and 28th: Curious
Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost / Nixon,
The Reader,
Slumdog Millionaire Nov 22nd Empty category so most of the Best Picture hopefuls get in. October
27th Slim pickings this year unless they get creative with
their definition of "adapted" or I've forgotten some major
player falling
out or moved to 2009: Nights in
Rodanthe prev: 15 * Push prev: 20 * Chéri
prev: 4,UR (moved to 2009) * Grey Gardens Patricia Rozema
& Michael Sucsy adapting the documentary --though
I wonder if they'll sell this as "original" prev:
17,17,16,12 * The
Reader David Hare (adapting Bernard
Schlink's novel) 1 nomination prev: 14,15,14,6
(moving to 09?) * Time Traveler's
Wife Jeremy Leven adapting Audrey Niffenegger prev: 18,18,20,18
* The Duchess Jeffrey Hatcher adapting Amanda Foreman prev:
19,20, 19,16 * Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist
Lorene Scafaria adapting the novel by Cohn and Levithan prev: 16,19,18,19
* The Other Man Eyre and Charles Wood adapting Bernard
Shclink's short story prev: 15, 13,14,15,9 * Brothers David
Benioff adapting the Danish film prev: 13,12,12, 11, 8 * Miracle
at St Anna James McBride prev: 11,10,10,8,11 The Road Joe
Penhall (adapting Cormac McMarthy's novel) never nominated
prev: 4,4,5,4,4, UR The Soloist Susannah Grant adapting Steve
Lopez's articles --though I wonder if they'll
sell this as "original" prev: 7,8,11,11,12,13 Blindness
William Monaham and Don McKellar adapting the Jose Saramago novel
prev: 12,12,9,8,9,3 * Body of Lies William Monahan (adapting
David Ignatius' novel) 1 nom / 1 win prev: 10,10,4,3,4,4 |
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