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Lessons from the success of "It"

"The marketing was smart...they did a good job of using a "less is more" approach" - Jakey

 "This is a rare case of a movie that was perfect to remake: has a strong nostalgic following but which also kind of sucks and has a lot of room for improvement. You get the pre-installed fan base but don't have the pressure of re-creating and improving on a legit classic." - MJS

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 Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress |  Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation 

90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 

AUGUST 31st PREDICTIONS

LAST GUESSWORK BEFORE FESTIVALS

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
It takes 16 releases in a given year to trigger a 5 nominee wide shortlist. We've been seeing the numbers creep up each and every year so there's little doubt that we'll continue to have 5 wide nominee lists. The last year with only three nominees was 2010. But just having 16+ releases doesn't mean you'll end up with 5 worthy Oscar nominees so they really ought to look at their rules again.

Another disappointing new development is that the Academy has shifted the rules for this category since last year and now more non-animation branch members will be voting which will obviously spell trouble for the non-American pictures. Americans who aren't well versed in the art have historically low threshholds for non-Pixar looking films. See each year's box office for proof even when an animated film is straight up amazing and child friendly (like, oh, the Irish nominees of late)

Discuss on the blog


Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Coco
Official Site
(Disney/Pixar)
November 22nd)

Pixar has won 50% of the animated Oscars given to date. This does look like the most promising of 2017's toons.

The Breadwinner
Official Site
(Cartoon Saloon/GKids)
November 17th

Can this film about a young Afghan girl disguising herself as a boy to find work, live up to Cartoon Saloon's very high standards?

Ferdinand
Official Site
(Fox/Blue Sky)
Dec 15th

The source material already made for a perfect Oscar winning 1930s short. Will it work similar endearing magic as a feature?

Loving Vincent
Official Site
(TBA)

Will they embrace it's "first painted film " selling point or will the rotoscope feel turn them off? Will the new rule make it harder for less traditional films to win nods?

Despicable Me 3
Official Site
(Universal)
June 30th

This is an insanely popular franchise and popularity will probably go an even longer way with the new voting rules. But is anyone really excited about #3... #4 if you count the spinoff Minions

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

The Boss Baby
Official Site
(Dreamworks)
March 31st

The reviews were weirdly harsh for this clever comedy. But reviews aren't everything for animated features. It's hit status could help with Oscar voters... especially in what appears to be a weak animated year

Cars 3
Official Site
(Disney/Pixar)
June 16th

Oscar wisely steered clear of Cars 2. But theoretically the new rules will probably help Pixar win automatic nominations. On the other hand did anyone care about this movie which is easily the lowest grosser in the franchise

The Lego Batman Movie
Official Site
(WB)
Feb 10th

Will they make it up to The Lego Movie (a surprise snub) or will this movie feel like old news at this point next year?

The Star
Official Site
(Sony)
November 14th

Faith-based films are popular at the moment and this Nativity story using a donkey as the main character could surprise if it's any good.

Captain Underpants
Official Site
(Dreamworks)
June 2nd

Can this movie please fans of the book series and also please critics and general audiences? Will Oscar be feeling super silly this year?

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

US / Canada / UK Productions

Probably 2018

  • Blazing Samurai (US)
  • Early Man (UK)
  • Isle of Dogs (US)

Foreign Animation - Will they seek eligibility?

Intriguing but probably 2018

 

 

 

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

* THE FOLLOWING CHART IS NOT PREDICTIONS*

Eligibility is quite confusing for documentary features and hundreds are considered each year before the 15 wide finalist list. We'll see which of these make that 15 wide list.

Discuss on the blog

DOCS REVIEWED IN GLENN DUNK'S COLUMN "DOC CORNER" THIS YEAR - LINKS GO TO INDIVIDUAL REVIEWS

 

An Inconvenient Sequel
Kedi Last Men in Aleppo Abacus: Small Enough to Jail Obit
Whose Streets? Casting JonBenet Strong Island  Icarus Icarus
         
Political Animals  Contemporary Color Untold Tales of Armistead Maupin Chasing Coral City of Ghosts
         
The Reagan Show Nobody Speak: Trials of Free Press No Dress Code Required  Rumble: The Indians Who Rocked the World All This Panic
         
Solitary   God Knows Where I Am Oklahoma City The Modern Jungle