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 Index | Pic | Dir | Actress | Actor | Supp Actress |  Supp Actor | Foreign |Screenplays | Visual | Aural |Animation 

91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 

DECEMBER 9TH PREDICTIONS

ANIMATED FEATURE

Tier 1 - Predicted Frontrunners for Nominations
There are 25 eligible films this year but Pixar looks likely to win again (they've won 50% of these Oscars)

Incredibles 2
(US)
Pixar
June 15th
Box Office: $608.5

REVIEW

Noms: 11 Annie nodsGlobe 
Critics Choice
Wins
NBR


 The animation branch isn't entirely predictable with sequels but this one will surely be nominated given their love for the original and what a huge blockbuster it was.

Isle of Dogs
(US)
Fox Searchlight
March 23rd
Box Office: $32

REVIEW

Noms: 4 Annie nods, Globe
Critics Choice
Wins: -- 


Wes Anderson's clever stop motion hit is locked up given a smaller slate of high profile films this year and it sure stands out from the crowd.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
(US)
Sony Pictures Animation
Dec 21st
Box Office: N/A

Noms: 7 Annie nodsGlobe , Critics Choice

WinsNYFCC, Chicago, AAFCA

Will superheroes begin to take over every Oscar category? This movie is a ton of inventive fun with great sight gags and a thrilling style of animation

Ralph Breaks the Internet
(US)
Disney
Nov 21st
Box Office: $141+

Noms: 10 Annie nodsGlobe Critics Choice
Wins: -- 

How close did the original come to winning its category (2012 was quite a competitive year)? If it was close, the goodwill could make this a safe bet.

Mirai
(Japan)
GKids
Qualifying Run
Box Office: N/A

NomsAPSAGlobe Critics Choice
Wins: --

From the director of The Boy and the Beast - The best positioned film among the Japanese films for this year's race

 
Tier 2 - Possible Spoilers

Early Man
(UK)
Aardman / Lionsgate
Jan 26th
Box Office: $8.2

REVIEW

NomsEFA, 7 Annie nods
Wins
: --

While response wasn't enthusiastic from audiences or critics, the animation branch loves Aardman films. Note the EFA and healthy Annie count. Do not count it out. It's in the mix for a possible nod.

Ruben Brandt, Collector
(Hungary)
Sony Pictures Classic
Qualifying Run
Box Office: N/A

REVIEW

Noms: 2 Annie nods
Wins: Seville Film Fest (Screenplay)

An animated noir from Hungary (in English) about a psychotherapist turned art thief. It's memorable but doesn't appear to be catching on. An actual release before the end of the year might have helped!

The Grinch 
(US)
Universal / Illumination
Nov 9th
Box Office: $223+

Noms: 3 Annie nods Critics Choice
Wins: -- 

How many versions of this tale will audiences be enthused about? And is there really any topping the 2D toon version?

On Happiness Road 
(Taiwan)
Qualifying Run
Box Office: N/A

NomsAPSA Nominee
Wins: Golden Horse, Taipei Film Fest, Tokyo Anime Award

A well loved memoir style animated film from Asia... but the new rules for this category mean it will be harder for small foreign films to make it in each year.

 

Smallfoot
(US)
Warner Animation
Sept 28th
Box Office: $82+

Noms: 1 Annie nod
Wins: -- 

While successful it never quite generated any passion in the industry or really with audiences.

 
Tier 3a Long Shots

Hotel Transylvania 3

(US)
Sonly
July 13th
Box Office: $167.5


Animators like it (check those Annie nods) and it was one of the year's biggest hits. But Oscar is still resistant to sequels.

Noms: 3 Annie nods
Wins: --

Tito and the Birds 

(Brazil)
Shout! Factory
Qualifying Only
Box Office: N/A

REVIEW

It's one of the more memorable looking entries but the crude flash animation like shapes might not be to Oscar's taste.

Noms: --
Wins: --

Lu Over the Wall
(Japan)
GKids
May 11th
Box Office: $109k

Probably pitched too much to kids for Oscar interest

Noms: --
Wins: Annecy Film Festival

The Night is Short, Walk on Girl
(Japan, GKids)
Aug 21st
Box Office: $406k

Didn't get enough attention to spark Oscar interest with Mirai sucking up all the anime enthusiasm

Noms: --
Wins: Japanese Academy, Ottawa Animation Fest

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
(US)
Warner Bros
July 27th
Box Office: $29.5

A box office dissapointed and the Annies weren't there for it either. Too TV for Oscar voters?

Noms: 1 Annie nod
Wins: --

 
Tier 3b- Still More Eligible Long Shots - (25 films in total are eligible)
  • Ana Y Bruno (Mexico)
  • Fireworks (Japan, Shout! Factory)
  • Have a Nice Day (China, Strand Releasing)
  • The Laws of the Universe - Part 1 (Japan)
  • Liz and the Blue Bird (Japan)
  • MFKZ (France/Japan, GKids)
  • Maquia (Japan) APSA Nominee
  • Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (US)
  • Sherlock Gnomes (US)
  • Tall Tales (France/Luxembourg)
  • Tito and the Birds (Brazil, Shout! Factory)
 

 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

There are 166 films eligible for this category. The list will be narrowed down to 15 on December 17th before the final 5 nominees are announced in January. There can be no locks in Documentary because you never know what that branch will do. There can be locks after the first cull though on December 17th.

CURRENT PREDICTIONS...

THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS

Critics Choice Nominee , Cinema Eye Nominee, Sundance Jury Special, NBR Top 5

RBG

Critics Choice Nominee, NBR Winner

WON'T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR?

Critics Choice Nominee, IDA nominee , Cinema Eye NomineeSpirit nominee , NBR Top 5

 DARK MONEY

Critics Choice NomineeIDA nominee

FREE SOLO

Critics Choice Nominee , NBR Top 5

 

TIER 2 - POSSIBLE SPOILERS

THE SENTENCE

Sundance (Audience Award)

 

THE CHINA HUSTLE

CRIME + PUNISHMENT

Critics Choice NomineeIDA nominee, Sundance Jury Special , NBR Top 5

MINDING THE GAP

Critics Choice NomineeIDA nomineeCinema Eye Nominee,  Spirit nomineeSundance Jury SpecialNYFCC winner , NBR Top 5Chicago

BISBEE 17 
Cinema Eye Nominee

 

TIER 3 - DARK HORSES?

OF FATHERS & SONS

IDA nominee , Cinema Eye NomineeEFA NomineeSundance

HALE COUNTY THIS MORNING THIS EVENING

IDA nominee , Cinema Eye NomineeSundance Jury Special

MCQUEEN 

GRAVES WITHOUT A NAME

[Also eligible in foreign film]

LEANING INTO THE WIND
 TIER 3 - MORE DARK HORSES

MARIA BY CALLAS

UNITED SKATES

IDA nominee 

THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO ANDRE

THE SILENCE OF OTHERS

IDA nomineeEFA Nominee

MATANGI / MAYA / M.I.A.

Sundance Jury Special

 

Still More Eligible Titles - Films We've Reviewed Are in Bold

Above and Beyond: NASA’S Journey to Tomorrow • Active Measures •  Amazing Grace •  American Chaos • Andy Irons: Kissed by God • Antonio Lopez 1970: Sex Fashion & Disco  •   Avicii: True Stories •  Bali: Beats of Paradise  •  Bathtubs over Broadway  •  Be Natural: The Untold Story of Alice Guy-Blaché  •  Believer  •  Better Angels •  Bill Coors: The Will to Live • The Bleeding Edge • Boom for Real: The Late Teenage Years of Jean-Michel Basquiat • Breaking Point: The War for Democracy in Ukraine

Call Her Ganda • Charm City • Chef Flynn  •  Christian Audigier The Vif •   The Cleaners Communion  •  Daughters of the Sexual Revolution: The Untold Story of the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders •   The Dawn Wall •   The Distant Barking of Dogs [ALSO NOMINATED AT THE EFA AWARDS]  •  Divide and Conquer: The Story of Roger Ailes  •  Drug$

Eating Animals •  Eldorado [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN FOREIGN FILM - SWITZERLAND'S SUBMISSION] •   Fahrenheit 11/9  •  Fail State •   Family in Transition •   Far from the Tree  •   Filmworker  •  The First Patient Foreign Land •   40 Years in the Making: The Magic Music Movie •

Garry Winogrand: All Things Are Photographable • Generation Wealth • Ghost Hunting [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN FOREIGN FILM - PALESTINE'S SUBMISSION] •  Ghosthunter  •  The Gilligan Manifesto  •  The Gospel According to AndreGrace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami  •  The Great Buster: A Celebration  •  Hal  •   Half the Picture •   The Heart of Nuba •  Hillbilly  •  The Homeless Chorus Speaks  •  Hondros • Howard

In Search of Greatness  •  In the Land of Pomegranates •   Inventing Tomorrow  •  Invisible Hands  •  Itzhak  •  Jane Fonda in Five Acts  •  John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection •  The Judge

Kangaroo: A Love Hate Story •  Killer Bees •  The King •  King in the Wilderness •  Kusama – Infinity •  The Last Race •  Letter from Masanjia •  Licu, a Romanian Story •  Living in the Future’s Past •  Liyana •  Lots of Kids, a Monkey and a Castle •  Love & Bananas: An Elephant Story •  Love, Cecil •  Love, Gilda •  Love Is Tolerance – Tolerance Is Love – Make Tolerance Great Again!

Making The Five Heartbeats •  Maria by Callas •  Monrovia, Indiana  •  The Most Unknown •  New Moon •  93Queen •  Nossa Chape •  Of Love & Law •  On Her Shoulders  (Spirit nomination, Sundance Directing Award) •  Opera about Poland •  The Opera House •  The Oslo Diaries •  The Other Side of Everything

The Panama Papers •  Path of Blood •  People’s Republic of Desire •  Philosopher King – Lee Teng-hui’s Dialogue •  Pick of the Litter •  Piripkura •  Police Killing •  Pope Francis – A Man of His Word •  The Price of Everything •  The Price of Free •  Qiu (Inmates) •  Quincy (AAFCA WINNER)

 The Rachel Divide •  The Raft •  Recovery Boys •  Restoring Tomorrow •  Reversing Roe •  The Road Movie •  Robin Williams: Come inside My Mind •  Ruben Blades Is Not My Name [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN FOREIGN FILM - PANAMA'S SUBMISSION]

Samouni Road •  Saving Brinton •  Say Her Name: The Life and Death of Sandra Bland •  Science Fair •  Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood  •  Searching for Ingmar Bergman •  Seeing Allred •  Shirkers [Sundance Directing, World Cinema Doc]  •  Shot in the Dark •  Sisters of the Wilderness •  A Son of Man [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN BEST FOREIGN FILM - AUSTRIA'S SUBMISSION] •  Songwriter •  Stan •  Studio 54 •  Summer in the Forest

Tea with the Dames •  That Summer •  That Way Madness Lies… • They Fight • They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead • This Is Congo •  This Is Home: A Refugee Story [Sundance Audience Award, World Cinema Doc] •  To Be Continued • Transformer •  Travel Ban •  The Trial •  Triumph: The Untold Story of Perry Wallace •  Trust Machine

Under the Wire •  Unknown Distance •  Up Down and Sideways •  The Waldheim Waltz [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN BEST FOREIGN FILM - AUSTRIA'S SUBMISSION] •  We Could Be Heroes •  Weed the People •  What Haunts Us •  What Lies Upstream •  Whitney •  Wonderful Losers: A Different World  [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN FOREIGN FILM - LITHUANIA'S SUBMISSION]  •   Yellow Is Forbidden [ALSO ELIGIBLE IN FOREIGN FILM - NEW ZEALAND'S SUBMISSION] •  Yellowing