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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog


Tier 1 - April Foolish Predictions

We just follow where the imaginary narratives in our head take us... Anything is possible this early.

Tom Hanks
62 years old | 5 noms | 2 wins
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN...
Nov 22nd

PRO: Playing the TV star Fred Rogers, an icon of goodness and thus right in Hanks wheelhouse.

CON: Hasn't been nominated in forever despite lots of strong performances

Sir Ian McKellen
79 yrs old | 2 noms
THE GOOD LIAR
Nov 15th

PRO: Early buzz is promising for his con man role here and Sir Ian & Dame Helen were great together in their previous duet (Broadway's "Dance of Death").

CON: They haven't exactly been generous with Sir Ian in the past

Taron Egerton
29 yrs old | never nominated
ROCKETMAN
May 31st

PRO: Oscar worships both music biopics and straight actors pretending to be gay. Likely to be a hit.

CON: Doing your own singing is not the draw that it once was (sigh). It won't be hard to beat Bohemian Rhapsody for quality (acting & otherwise) but they might feel "we just did that"

Daniel Kaluuya
30 yrs old | 1 nomination
QUEEN & SLIM
Nov 27th

PRO: Get Out put him on the radar and if he impresses mightily again...

CON: The movie could prove too divisive for mainstream awards glory

Ben Affleck
46 yrs old | never nominated for acting | 2 wins in other categories
TORRANCE
Oct 18th

PRO: Playing a recovering addict. There are multiple easy Oscar narratives if he's strong in it from 'comeback' to 'whod'a thunk it' and 'personal redemption thru art' etc...

CON: Could easily be a miss on multiple levels.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

 

Mark Ruffalo
51 years old | 3 noms
UNTITLED TODD HAYNES 
Release tba

PRO: Playing a corporate environmental lawyer who essentially switches sides to fight against pollution. Could be character-arc meaty and Hayne is great with actors.

CON: The overall response to the film will matter. Will it be ready in time? Haynes isn't speedy.

Adam Driver
35 yrs old | 1 nomination
THE REPORT
Release TBA

PRO: Once Oscar notices you a prime follow up project can make you a "regular" . He's front and center in this political drama fighting against government sanctioned torture.

CON: But will the film be too dry for major Oscar play?

Robert DeNiro
75 yrs old | 7 noms | 2 wins
THE IRISHMAN
Release TBA

PRO: Sentiment and nostalgia (a reunion with Scorsese) could help him back into the race regardless of the movie or quality of his performance.

CON: De Niro has been coasting for a long time. Can he wow again? (If so all bets are off)

Edward Norton
49 yrs old | 3 nominations
MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN
Release TBA

PRO: Plays a detective who suffers from Tourette's syndrome so we're talking showy and Norton's nominations have always come from very "showy"

CON: But they don't always respond well to self-direction and nobody was clamoring for him to become a director after his first try in 2000

Kelvin Harrison Jr
24 yrs old | never nominated
LUCE
Aug 2nd

PRO: Early buzz suggests that this title character is a complex one and a star-making role.

CON: but for twenty-something male actors star-making roles don't translate to Oscar glory even remotely as easily as they do for the their female counterparts

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Christian Bale
45 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
FORD V FERRARI
Nov 15th

PRO: He's one of Oscar's favourite actors.

CON: The subject matter of the movie implies that it's more of an ensemble piece but perhaps the script will focus on his character?

Timothée Chalamet
23 yrs old | 1 nom
THE KING
Release tba

PRO: Oscar loves biographies and royalty porn and director David Michôd might well have a great movie in him someday given his "Animal Kingdom" debut.

CON: Chalamet is still really really young for Oscar. Might be awhile before they return to him.

 

Antonio Banderas
58 yrs old | never nominated
PAIN AND GLORY
Release tba

PRO: Early raves for his work in Spain. Cannes will tell us whether his 7th collaboration with Almodóver will be an international hit. Heat from The Laundromat could help, too.

CON: Fictional character and Oscar prefers bios.

Leonardo DiCaprio
44 yrs old | 5 noms | 1 win
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
July 26th

PRO: Leo tends to loosen up beautifully in comedies.

CON: Oscar is hard to predict when it comes to comedy and they sometimes take long breaks from actors after "overdue" wins.

Gary Oldman
61 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
THE LAUNDROMAT
Release TBA

PRO: Its a prestige project from a popular director (Steven Soderbergh) with a great cast.

CON: But it also sounds like a true ensemble rather than a showcase. And Netflix projects don't always get the full push when it comes to Oscar.

 
Tier 4- Too early to rule anyone out!
 

Joaquin Phoenix

44 yrs old | 3 noms
JOKER
Warner Bros
Oct 4th

PRO: It's the only comic book role that's ever thrilled Oscar voters.

CON: We've already seen two Oscar winning actors do this role (Jack Nicholson & Heath Ledger)

 

Anthony Hopkins
81 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
THE POPE
Release TBA

PRO: Oscar loves actors as real life famous characters. He plays Pope Benedict.

CON: There are three actors playing popes in the movie despite the singular title so he might not even be best-in-show

Willem Dafoe

63 yrs old | 4 nominations
THE LIGHTHOUSE
Release TBA

PRO: He's on a career roll at the moment and is playing a lighthouse keeper named simpley "Old" in the early 1900s. Sounds intriguing.

CON: Might well be too "genre" for voters (from the director of The Witch)

Dev Patel
28 yrs old | 1 nom
PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD
Release tba

PRO: Oscar might like the color-blind casting and its a famous story we haven't seen as a movie in quite some time.

CON: Past adaptations haven't exactly been awards magnets.

Eddie Murphy
58 yrs old | 1 nomination
DOLEMITE IS MY NAME
Release TBA

PRO: The team is strong on this and Oscar loves a biopic and don't they kinda owe Murphy?

CON: It's Netflix so you never know if there's gonna be a push and Murphy would need to feel like a "comeback" to get the attention

 
Tier 5 - Other Male Leads in 2019

(Alphabetical Order) Jamie Bell -Skin Gary Carr - Bolden Winston Duke -Us, Matt Damon - Ford v Ferrari, Roman Griffin Davis - JoJo Rabbit, Nicholas Hoult - Tolkien, Matthew McConaughey - Beach Bum, Liam Neeson- Normal People, Brad Pitt - Ad Astra, Eddie Redmayne - The Aeronauts, Sam Rockwell -Best of Enemies