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COMMENT(s) DU JOUR
Yes No Maybe So: CREED, SECRET IN THEIR EYES, STEVE JOBS

CREED "I'm so here for Michael B. Jordan becoming a bona fide movie star. It'll just take the right project to put him in the public consciousness. Creed looks like it could be it." - Kate

STEVE JOBS "Isnt it too soon for a Jobs biopic?" - Amanda

SECRET IN THEIR EYES "I loved the original -- without the background of the Argentinian dictatorship a huge element of the plot tension gets lost. I wonder how they'll deal with that." - Felix


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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

CHART UPDATED AS OF JULY 1st

July 1st Predicted Five

Tom Hiddleston
never nominated
I Saw the Light
(SPC)
TBA

Eddie Redmayne
1 nom | 1 win
The Danish Girl
(Focus)
Nov 27th

Michael Caine
6 noms | 2 wins
Youth
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Michael Fassbender
1 nomination
Steve Jobs
(Universal)
Oct 9th
Leonardo DiCaprio
4 noms for acting
The Revenant
(Fox)
Christmas

Real Life Role Alert: He's playing Hank Williams

Playing music legends never hurt any actor with Oscar. He's been doing good unheralded work for a few years now. Could it finally be his time?

Real Life Role Alert: He's playing trans pioneer Lili Elbe

Oscar loves actors who "transform" and they just handed him an Oscar for doing just that. Now, a new challenge: playing before & after of an historic gender reassignment surgery

 There was a lot of enthusiasm for this Sorrentino film out of Cannes and Oscar has always had a jonesing for Michael Caine when he's got juicy roles. They also like movies about movies.

 

 Real Life Role Alert: He's playing computer genius Steve Jobs. Bonus points: also trying his hand at Shakespeare this year in MacBeth

 

If Fassbender is still against campaigning this could be tough to land but it looks classy / dramatic

Trailer

Real Life Role Alert: He's playing fur trapper frontiersman Hugh Glas

With Leo it all comes down to the countdown. Everyone (including unfortunately Leo) knows he's going to win one eventually so they wait... will it be this time?

Tier 2 - Also Look Like Good Bets This (Too) Early
Bryan Cranston
never nominated
Trumbo
(Bleecker Street)
TBA
Jake Gyllenhaal
1 nomination
Southpaw or Demolition
(Weinstein Co / Fox Searchlight)
Jul 31st / TBA
Johnny Depp
3 nominations
Black Mass
(Warner Bros)
Sept 18th
Sir Ian McKellen
2 noms
Mr Holmes
(Roadside Attractions)
July 17th
 Michael B Jordan
never nominated
Creed
(MGM/WB)
Nov 25th 

Real Life Role Alert: He's playing Blacklisted screenwriter Dalton Trumbo

Hollywood enjoys Hollywood history and they also like to vote for retro causes via proxy. They'll always feel guilty (as well they should) about the blacklist

Gyllenhaal is on a roll and surely, if either or these film are great, he'll get some media traction. Oscar loves boxers and they owe him  after Nightcrawler. But then there's the vote splitting with himself potential issue. It comes down to the films themselves probably.

More on Southpaw

Hey, he was once an actor that everyone eagerly awaited each time to see what he would do with a role. An artistic comeback could happen. And he's playing a real person, not a cartoon.

Trailer

Roadside isn't Oscar strong and its a summer release ...on the other hand, coming out early can work wonders in settling in as a presumptive nominee, if you're great AND people love the film.  

 He's a young actor that the public and critics seem excited about and Oscar attention generally follows if those two groups agree. Will they take this reigniting of the Rocky franchise seriously or is this strictly a commercial play?

Trailer

Tier 3 - or maybe ?
Ben Foster
never nominated
The Program
(TBA)
TBA
Chiwetel Ejiofor
1 nomination
Secret in Their Eyes
(Bleecker Street)
Oct 23rd
Tom Hanks
5 noms | 2 wins
Bridge of Spies
(Touchstone)
Oct 16th
Paul Dano
never nominated
Love and Mercy
Roadside Attractions
June 19th 
Antonio Banderas
never nominated
The 33
(Warner Bros)
Nov 13th

This true story scandal looks promising with Foster fully committed to Armstrong transformation. But there are so many biographical roles this year

Trailer

 If they go for this at all, might they go for it in full? Chiwetel deserves leading roles so we hope this'll be a hit.

Trailer

Bridge of Spies will undoubtedly be taken seriously given its powerhouse team but is it an "actor's movie"? The trailer was underwhelming and if he didn't get in forCapt. Phillips...

Trailer

He's won strong reviews but the early release and decision to split the story between two actors might work against this invested performance Much depends on who distributes this one and how much of an awards push it gets. Will people be bawling or will they feel manipulated?
Tier 4 - Other Leads This Year
Géza Röhrig - Son of Saul; Tom Courtenay - 45 Years: Bradley Cooper - Adam Jones; Warren Beatty - Untitled Howard Hughes Project; Will Smith - Concussion; Joseph Gordon-Levitt - The Walk, Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Snowden; Michael Fassbender The Light Between the Oceans; Dane DeHaan  Tulip Fever: Robert Redford Truth; Javier Bardem The Last Face; Joaquin Phoenix Irrational Man; Matthew McConaughey -The Sea of Trees; George Clooney - Money Monster; Colin Firth - Genius; Chris Hemsworth - In the Heart of the Sea; Chiwetel Ejiofor - The Secret in Their Eyes; Matt Damon - The Martian; Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation; Michael Shannon Midnight Special; Don Cheadle - Miles Ahead