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Review: QUEEN OF KATWE

"LOVED this move. If the Academy could be convinced to see this, I could absolutely see it sneaking into BP." -Eurocheese

"I would love to see 'Oscar winning director, Mira Nair' written somewhere someday" -Choog

 

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPT 21st. POST-FESTIVAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
In a normal year I would never suggest that two men in romantic dramas would be nominated (historically it's hard for men to be nominated for romances) but in such a threadbare year for male leads...

Denzel Washington
FENCES
(61 yrs old | 45th movie
6 noms | 2 wins)
Dec 16th 

He won the Tony for this role on Broadway as a former Baseball great hopeful ex-con with many regrets. We know Oscar loves him. Will he do the play justice behind the camera? And if he does is a third Oscar possible?

Casey Affleck
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(41 yrs old | 33rd movie | 1 nomination)
Nov 18th

He's already won raves for this drama as an emotionally wrecked man whose life suddenly changes when his brother dies and he has to raise his nephew

Tom Hanks
SULLY 
(60 yrs old | 50th film | 5 noms | 2 wins)
Sept 9th 

*OSCAR COMEBACK?*

 While they ignored his last two great performances (despite loving the films) eventually won't they have to notice he's doing better work now than in his gold-o-plenty heyday? The film's great box office won't hurt.

 

Joel Edgerton
LOVING
(42 yrs old | 36th movie | never nominated)
Nov 4th 

He plays a man imprisoned for marrying a black woman in this true story that takes place in the 1950s and 1960s. He probably has goodwill in Hollywood given how much he's been working

 

Ryan Gosling
LA LA LAND
(35 yrs old | 22nd movie | 1 nomination)
Dec 16th  

Men rarely get nominated for musicals or for being such charming romantic leads. Oscar has unconscious biases that way. On the other hand, its Best Picture potential could yank him in.

 

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Viggo Mortensen
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
(57 yrs old | 48th movie | 1 nomination)
July 8th 

*EARLY BIRD WONDER*

 He's the eccentric patriarch of a survivalist clan. Viggo is a great great actor but his filmography has been odd  - He's great again but one wonders what it would take for Oscar to say "Viggo!" again. #1 votes help him in a field that isn't inspiring a lot of passion (yet)

 

Dev Patel
LION
(26 yrs old | 9th movie | never nominated)
Nov 25th 

This has the potential to be a tearjerking sleeper hit (if it's good or just goodish) and if it is, look out for Dev Patel as a 25 yr old Australian searching for his birth parents in India.

Rumors are floating about going Supporting despite being the lead

Joe Alwyn
BILLY LYNN'S LONG HALFTIME WALK
(25 yrs old | 1st movie | never nominated)
Nov 11th 

*WILD CARD*

 We could have a new star here. Early buzz on the film is promising. But can Ang Lee pull it off? It sounds ambitious. And Satire is never a sure thing with audiences. And he's very young for Oscar in this category.

Michael Keaton
THE FOUNDER
(64 yrs old | 40th movie | 1 nomination)
Dec 16th 

 Keaton's on a roll with two Best Picture winners in as many years. Can he follow up that Birdman nomination with another for this sneaky businessman role? Or will the film struggle to get attention in crowded December? Moving it there seemed like a bad idea. We shall see.

Miles Teller
BLEED FOR THIS
(29 yrs old | 15 movies | never nominated)
Nov 4th 

 A boxer who is gravely injured. Oscar loves men surmounting huge physical obstacles. And they like boxers too. But does Hollywood love Miles Teller enough to nominate him? How will this fare at the box office? 

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

Andrew Garfield
HACKSAW RIDGE
(33 yrs old | 20 movies | never nom'd)
Nov 4th

Early word on this new Mel Gibson directorial effort is surprisingly strong. Garfield plays the first Conscientous Objector in American history during WW II. But which Garfield performance might they go for?

Andrew Garfield
SILENCE
(33 yrs old | 20 movies | never nom'd)
TBA 

While we don't know who truly "leads" this picture, one suspects it's Garfield (rather than Adam Driver) as two missionaries search for their mentor and try to endure a hostile environment

 

Nate Parker
BIRTH OF A NATION
(36 yrs old | 20th movie | never nominated)
Oct 7th 

The film made huge waves at Sundance and Parker directed himself in this meaty role as a preacher slave who leads a massacre rebellion. But Parker's press troubles aren't really dissipating

Matthew McConaughey
GOLD
(46 yrs old | 41 movies | 1 nom / 1 win)
Dec 25th 

Weight loss and gains aren't everything with Oscar but they don't hurt either. Even if this film proves just a box office grab, if voters are feeling uninspired in this category (likely) they could always go "unrecognizable!"

Chris Pine
HELL OR HIGH WATER
(36 yrs old |  22 movies | never nom'ed)
Aug 26th 

He's getting the best reviews of his career for this manly crime drama. Will voters remember that he already surprised them a couple of years back in Into the Woods. Is good will gathering for his career? 

 

Tier 4 - Other Male Leads This Year (no particular order)

Ben Affleck - Live by Night, Michael Fassbender - Light between Oceans, Chris Pratt - Passengers, Logan Lergman - Indignation, David Oyelowo - a United Kingdom, Jake Gyllenhaal - Demolition, Brad Pitt - Allied, Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals; Alex Sharp - How to Talk to Girls at Parties; Woody Harrelson - Wilson or LBJ; Edgar Ramirez - Hands of Stone; Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Snowden; Michael Fassbender - Assassin's Creed; Colin Farrell - The Lobster; Will Smith - Collateral Beauty; Billy Crudup - 20th Century Women; Logan Lerman - Indignation; Don Cheadle - Miles Ahead Bryan Cranston - Wakefield