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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

AUGUST 9TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 -Predictions

Could McKellen win under the "how has he never won an Oscar" category of awards campaign or will it be a free-for-all? 

Sir Ian McKellen
79 yrs old | 2 noms
THE GOOD LIAR
Nov 15th

 

Early buzz is promising for his con man role here and Sir Ian & Dame Helen were great together in their previous duet (Broadway's "Dance of Death"). Still, Oscar has been unkind to him in the past.

Michael B Jordan

32 yrs old | never nominated
JUST MERCY
Dec 25th

 

He's been impressive for years so Oscar really ought to get on the bandwagon. A true story legal drama might be the trick as he defends a death-row inmate.

 

Tom Hanks
62 years old | 5 noms | 2 wins
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN...
Nov 22nd

Playing the TV star Fred Rogers, an icon of goodness and thus right in Hanks wheelhouse. But Oscar has noticeably been uninterested since Cast Away

Daniel Kaluuya
30 yrs old | 1 nomination
QUEEN & SLIM
Nov 27th

Get Out put him on the radar and he keeps impressing. The movie will surely be polarizing but if he's brilliant in it, they'd be primed to rubber stamp him under the 'see, we were right' that they sometimes do with new stars they got too early (which is rare for them)

Antonio Banderas
58 yrs old | never nominated
PAIN AND GLORY
Oct 4th

 

He's winning raves including the prestigious Cannes prize for Best Actor for playibng a veiled version of his own chief auteur in their 7th collaboration. Heat from The Laundromat could help, too.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Adam Driver
35 yrs old | 1 nomination
MARRIAGE STORY
Release TBA

 

Once Oscar notices you a prime follow up project can make you a "regular" . He' leads this Noah Baumbach drama and Driver has always been good playing off of actresses. But then Baumbach films have never really been in Oscar's wheelhouse.

Adam Driver
35 yrs old | 1 nomination
THE REPORT
Nov 15th

He's front and center in this political drama fighting against government sanctioned torture. But will the film be too dry for major Oscar play? And what's going on with Amazon this year?

Robert DeNiro
75 yrs old | 7 noms | 2 wins
THE IRISHMAN
Release TBA

Sentiment and nostalgia (a reunion with Scorsese) could help him back into the race regardless of the movie or quality of his performance. De Niro has been coasting for a long time and the de-aging might prove distracting to people. 

Leonardo DiCaprio
44 yrs old | 5 noms | 1 win
ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
July 26th

 

Leo loosens up beautifully in comedies and this is his best performance in around 13 years. That said Oscar sometimes take long breaks from actors after "overdue" campaign wins. And we think that will hurt him this year despite such a strong performance.

Taron Egerton
29 yrs old | never nominated
ROCKETMAN
May 31st

Oscar worships both music biopics and straight actors pretending to be gay. But doing your own singing is not the draw that it once was (sigh). It won't be hard to beat Bohemian Rhapsody for quality (acting & otherwise) but they might feel "we just did that" anyway. Plus, the early release
 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Christian Bale
45 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
FORD V FERRARI
Nov 15th

He's one of Oscar's favourite actors. The subject matter of the movie implies that it's more of an ensemble piece but surely either Damon or Bale will be declared "Lead". We shall see.

Anthony Hopkins
81 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
THE TWO POPES
Release TBA

Oscar loves actors as real life famous characters. He plays Pope Benedict. Could be outdone by Pryce in the same film. We shall see. Also it's a Netflix release and they haven't shown much ability to push a LOT of movies into the Oscar race. And they have a lot of movies this year.

 

Edward Norton
49 yrs old | 3 nominations
MOTHERLESS BROOKLYN
Release TBA

He's playing a detective who suffers from Tourette's syndrome so we're talking showy and Norton's nominations have always come from very "showy" But they don't always respond well to self-direction and nobody was clamoring for him to become a director after his first try in 2000

Joaquin Phoenix
44 yrs old | 3 noms
THE JOKER
Warner Bros
Oct 4th

 

It's the only comic book role that's ever thrilled Oscar voters. We've already seen three Oscar winning actors do this role (Jack Nicholson, Jared Leto, and Heath Ledger)

Timothée Chalamet
23 yrs old | 1 nom
THE KING
Release tba

 

Oscar loves biographies and royalty porn and director David Michôd might well have a great movie in him someday given his "Animal Kingdom" debut. Chalamet is still really young for Oscar. 

 
Tier 4 - Other Possibilities
 
Other Leads of Possible Note
  • Matt Damon - Ford v Ferrari 
  • Kelvin Harrison Jr - Luce
  • Eddie Murphy - Dolemite is My Name
  • Liam Neeson- Normal People
  • Dev Patel - Personal History of David Copperfield
  • Robert Pattinson - The Lighthouse
  • Brad Pitt - Ad Astra
  • Eddie Redmayne - The Aeronauts

Probably or Definitely 2020

  • Mark Ruffalo - Untitled Todd Haynes Project
  • Ben Affleck - The Way Back (formerly called Torrance)