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"Bond on Banana"
2014
Mixed Media on Fruit, 9"x1½"

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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

Predictions as of July 17th
Benedict Cumberbatch
never nominated
Imitation Game
(Weinstein Co)
Nov 21st
Michael Keaton
never nominated
Birdman
(Fox Searchlight)
Oct 17th

David Oyelowo
never nominated
Selma
(Paramount)
Dec 25th

Steve Carell
never nominated
Foxcatcher
(SPC)
Nov 17th
Channing Tatum
never nominated
Foxcatcher
(SPC)
Nov 17th

Why predict him?
Oscar likes to rubber stamp stars that the general public has already given millions of thumbs up to if they have the right opportunity and this meaty WWII biopic role should do the trick

But...
The last film on this topic (Enigma) was a bore...

Why predict him?
Amazing fusion of actor and role: Has-been star who once played a superhero trying to comeback. Sound familiar?

But...
Oscar doesn't always "get" meta triumphs. Consider that they didn't nominate John Malkovich for Being John Malkovich

Why predict him?
It's a plum noble role (Martin Luther King) for a rising very talented actor

But...
Underfamous for this particular category so he'll need the film to be an Oscar success in other categories

Why predict them?
After 30 years of category fraud post Amadeus, isn't it time for some honesty? If anyone could pull this off it would be SPC with Steve in a showy "transformative role" as a schizophrenic with a prosthetic nose and Channing on top of Hollywood at just the right moment to "surprise" by being as good as he's always been.

But...
Best Actor is always competitive and the movie is intriguing but no sure thing

They Look Like Strong Contenders, Too
Ralph Fiennes
2 nominations
Grand Budapest Hotel
(Fox Searchlight)
March 28th

Eddie Redmayne
never nominated
Theory of Everything
(Focus Features)
Nov 7th

Chadwick Boseman
never nominated
Get On Up
(Universal)
Aug 1st

Timothy Spall
never nominated
Mr Turner
(SPC)
TBA

Jack O'Connell
never nominated
Unbroken
(Universal)
Dec 25th

In his favor
People love the performance, it stretches him, and the film is popular, too. It's high time Oscar invited him back.

But...
Early release have a hard time winning awards traction and comedy is also a dicey proposition

In his favor
Oscar loves almost nothing more than disabilities in the lead actor category. And biopics make them horny. Seems like a great part for a rising star

But...
He didn't win much traction for Les Miz

In his favor
Oscar worships performances of music icons and James Brown is a fun part

But...
the early release and trailers suggest this might be on the "lightweight" side

In his favor
Mike Leigh gets sensational performances from his actors and this eccentric painter role could be a winner. Already is actually: He won Cannes

But... 
Spall's Leigh movies are rarely big deals as Leigh movies go

In his favor
He's already won raves for Starred Up on the fest circuit and the Angelina Jolie WWII film will obviously be widely seen.

But...
At 23 he's very young for Oscar's acting branch. And lots of "real life" roles in competition

But the year is young. Anything goes...
Oscar Isaac
never nominated
A Most Violent Year
(A24)
TBA
Michael Fassbender
1 nomination
MacBeth
(Weinstein Co)
TBA
Andy Serkis
never nominated
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
(Fox)
July 11
Alfred Molina
never nominated
Love is Strange
(SPC)
Aug 22

John Lithgow
2 nominations
Love is Strange
(SPC)
Aug 22

In his favor
A rising star who could well have goodwill left over from his amazing work in Inside Llewyn Davis. This movie could be a sleeper hit/critical darling given JC Chandor's rise in the director's chair

But...
Or ignored completely

In his favor
He's not one to campaign but now that they've noticed him (thanks 12 Years) he might not need to when he's brilliant

But...
they'd have to really love the film. They're not Shakespeare addicts

In his favor
There's a lot of noise to honor him for pioneering a whole new subgenre of acting...

But...
...we've been in this exact place twice before (2002 & 2011). But can we talk Honorary at least?

In their favor
They're both incredible and authentic-feeling in this excellent drama about love and aging and real estate. AMPAS could well relate if they can deal with gay seniors

But...
Oscar voters have been trained by campaign publicisits to be confused by dual lead / same gender films. It's been 30 years since it happened in this category. If AMPAS can't deal with dual leads and do that top/bottom Brokeback ignorance again than Lithgow is going supporting.

Also Leading Movies This Year
too early to rule much out

Joaquin Phoenix - Inherent Vice Bill Murray - St. Vincent Jonah Hill - True Story Ben Affleck - Gone Girl Christian Bale - Exodus: Gods & Kings Gael Garcia Bernal - Rosewater Bradley Cooper - Serena Kevin Costner - McFarland Russell Crowe - Noah & The Water Diviner Robert Downey Jr - The Judge Jake Gyllenhaal - Enemy Tom Hardy - Locke John Hawkes - Lowdown Tommy Lee Jones - The Homesman Tobey Maguire - Pawn Sacrifice James McAvoy - Eleanor Rigby Matthew McConaughey - Interstellar Viggo Mortensen - Two Faces of January Bill Murray - St. Vincent Brad Pitt - Fury Jeremy Renner - Kill the Messenger Alan Rickman - A Little Chaos Adam Sandler - Men Women and Children & The Cobbler Matthias Schoenaerts - Suite Française Miles Teller - Whiplash