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The Turning Point (1977)

"This film is like Beaches long lost relative." -Mark

"I've said it before and I'll say it again, this film's 2 Best Actress nods should've gone to 3 Women" - Yavor

"I really loved Tom Skerritt in this. I think he deserved a nomination for Supporting Actor." -Tyler

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

MID JULY PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Denzel Washington
Fences
(6 noms | 2 wins)
Dec 16th 

He won the Tony for this role on Broadway as a former Baseball great hopeful ex-con with many regrets. We know Oscar loves him. Will he do the play justice behind the camera? And if he does is a third Oscar possible?

Casey Affleck
Manchester by the Sea
(1 nomination)
Nov 18th

He's already won raves for this drama as an emotionally wrecked man whose life suddenly changes when his brother dies and he has to raise his nephew

Joel Edgerton
Loving
(never nom'd)
Nov 4th 

He plays a man imprisoned for marrying a black woman in this true story that takes place in the 1950s and 1960s. He probably has goodwill in Hollywood given how much he's been working

 

Nate Parker
Birth of a Nation
(never nom'ed)
Oct 7th 

The film made huge waves at Sundance and Parker directed himself in this meaty role as a preacher slave who leads a massacre rebellion. Fox Searchlight bet big and will push it.

Michael Keaton
The Founder
(1 nomination)
Dec 16th 

Keaton's on a roll with two Best Picture winners in as many years. Can he follow up that Birdman nomination with another for this sneaky businessman role? Or will the film struggle to get attention in crowded December?

 

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Tom Hanks
Sully
(5 noms | 2 wins)
Sept 9th 

*OSCAR COMEBACK?*

While they ignored his last two great performances (despite loving the films) eventually won't they have to notice he's doing better work now than in his gold-o-plenty heyday? But Eastwood films are inconsistent. We'll see.

Joe Alwyn
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
(never nom'ed)
Nov 11th 

*WILD CARD*

We could have a new star here. Early buzz on the film is promising. But can Ang Lee pull it off? It sounds ambitious. And Satire is never a sure thing with audiences. And he's very young for Oscar in this category.

 

Dev Patel
Lion
(never nominated)
Nov 25th 

This has the potential to be a tearjerking sleeper hit (if it's good or just goodish) and if it is, look out for Dev Patel as a 25 yr old Australian searching for his birth parents in India

Andrew Garfield
Silence
(never nom'd)
TBA 

While we don't know who truly "leads" this picture, one suspects it's Garfield (rather than Adam Driver) as two missionaries search for their mentor and try to endure a hostile environment

 Viggo Mortensen
Captain Fantastic
(1 nomination)
July 8th 

*EARLY BIRD WONDER*

He's the eccentric patriarch of a survivalist clan. Viggo is a great great actor but his filmography has been odd  - He's great again but one wonders what it would take for Oscar to say "Viggo!" again?

 

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

Miles Teller
Bleed for This
(never nom'ed)
Nov 23rd 

Oscar likes a biopic, boxing movies, and physical diabilities (temporary or otherwise). Miles checks all three boxes but he's a little younger for Oscar and he well liked enough within Hollywood to overcome that?

 

Ryan Gosling
La La Land
(1 nom)
Dec 16th 

Gosling in a musical? Sign us up. But it's hard to get nominated for musicals. Especially if you're a man. Oscar has unconscious biases that way.

 

David Oyelowo
A United Kingdom
(never nominated)
TBA 

We have two big true story films about interracial marriages this year. One is A United Kingdom where Oyelowo weds Rosamund Pike.

 

Chris Pratt
Passengers
(never nom'ed)
Dec 25th 

Hollywood is trusting him to carry a picture alone on a spaceship... at least until he wakes up Jennifer Lawrence in this deep freeze sci-fi drama about two people waking up decades before they're supposed to.

Michael Fassbender
The Light Between Oceans
(2 nominations)
Sept 2nd 

Fassbender doesn't campaign and this looks like it might be more of a showcase for the women. Our guess is Assassin's Creed is the project people notice (in other ways) this year.

 

 

Tier 4 - Other Male Leads This Year (no particular order)

Jake Gyllenhaal - Demolition, Brad Pitt - Allied, Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals; Alex Sharp - How to Talk to Girls at Parties; Woody Harrelson - Wilson or LBJ; Edgar Ramirez - Hands of Stone; Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Snowden; Michael Fassbender - Assassin's Creed; Colin Farrell - The Lobster; Will Smith - Collateral Beauty; Billy Crudup - 20th Century Women; Logan Lerman - Indignation; Don Cheadle - Miles Ahead