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"All I know is that if I had worked on A Monster Calls, I'd be pretty pissed that I didn't get in but Sully did." -The Jack

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

December 4th Predictions

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
This race has been going cold for weeks with only Washington of Affleck looking like potential winners. So it's anyone guess who nabs the other three slots.

Casey Affleck
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(41 yrs old | 33rd movie | 1 nomination)
Nov 18th
Reviewed 

Prizes
NBR WinnerGotham Winner, Spirit Nom, Critics Choice Nom, NYFCC Winner

He's masterful in this drama as an emotionally wrecked man whose life suddenly changes when his brother dies and he has to raise his nephew and is thrust back into life in the town he purposefully left

 

Denzel Washington
FENCES
(61 yrs old | 45th movie
6 noms | 2 wins)
Dec 25th
First Impression

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

He won the Tony for this role on Broadway as a former Baseball great hopeful ex-con with many regrets. We know Oscar loves him and he's on fire here - his best work since Malcolm X. He does justice to this great play and he could even win his third Oscar for it.

Tom Hanks
SULLY 
(60 yrs old | 50th film | 5 noms | 2 wins)
Sept 9th 
Reviewed 

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom 

  While they ignored his last two great performances (despite loving the films) eventually won't they have to notice he's doing better work now than in his gold-o-plenty heyday? The film's great box office won't hurt.

 

 

Ryan Gosling
LA LA LAND
(35 yrs old | 22nd movie | 1 nomination)
Dec 16th  
First Impression

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom 

 Men rarely get nominated for musicals or for being such charming romantic leads. Oscar has unconscious biases that way. On the other hand, he's just terrific in the film and its Best Picture frontrunner status could yank him in.

 

 

Andrew Garfield
HACKSAW RIDGE
(33 yrs old | 20 movies | never nom'd)
Nov 4th
Reviewed 

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom 

Garfield plays the first Conscientous Objector in American history during WW II and Oscar loves an inspiration true story. But will the hokey early scenes (rough acting!) get in the way of the stronger war scenes?.

Bonus Points: Silence

 

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

 

Joel Edgerton
LOVING
(42 yrs old | 36th movie | never nominated)
Nov 4th 
Reviewed 

Prizes
Gotham Nom, Critics Choice Nom

He plays a man imprisoned for marrying a black woman in this true story that takes place in the 1950s & 1960s. He probably has goodwill in Hollywood given how much he's been working. But the character is very inexpressive which could hurt his chances against much showier parts.

 

Viggo Mortensen
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
(57 yrs old | 48th movie | 1 nomination)
July 8th 
Reviewed 

Prizes
Spirit Nom, Critics Choice Nom (Comedy? Even though it's a drama)

 He's the eccentric patriarch of a survivalist clan. Viggo is a great great actor but his filmography has been odd  - He's great again but one wonders what it would take for Oscar to say "Viggo!" again. #1 votes help him in a field that isn't inspiring a lot of passion (yet)

Matthew McConaughey
GOLD
(46 yrs old | 41 movies | 1 nom / 1 win)
Dec 25th 

Prizes
tba 

 Weight loss and gains aren't everything with Oscar but they don't hurt either. If voters are feeling uninspired about this category (likely) they could always go "unrecognizable transformation!"

 

 

Adam Driver
PATERSON
(yrs old | movies | never nominated)
Dec 28th)

Prizes
Gotham Nomination, LAFCA

The LA film critics prize will win him renewed attention but the film doesn't open until after Christmas which is an awfully late start. And Jarmusch isn't safely in Oscar's wheelhouse by any stretch of the imagination

Warren Beatty
RULES DON'T APPLY
(4 noms in this category)
Nov 23rd

Prizes
tba 

 While the movie was DOA on arrival, Beatty is a legend completing a dream project about another Hollywood legend. Certain Oscar demos might certainly go for it.

 

 

Tier 3 - Long Shots

Chris Pine
HELL OR HIGH WATER
(36 yrs old |  22 movies | never nom'ed)
Aug 26th 
Reviewed 

Prizes
tba 

 He won the best reviews of his career for this manly crime drama which has Best Picture heat. Strangely that hasn't seemed to have budged his prospects for Oscar.

 

Michael Keaton
THE FOUNDER
(64 yrs old | 40th movie | 1 nomination)
Dec 16th 

Prizes
tba 

 Keaton's on a roll with two Best Picture winners in as many years. But the film isn't getting any attention so this seems less and less likely. Why they ever moved to December is a mystery.

 

 

Andrew Garfield -Silence
Nate Parker -
Birth of a Nation
Ben Affleck -
Live by Night
Logan Lergman - Indignation
Michael Fassbender - Light Between Oceans
Colin Farrell - The Lobster
Don Cheadle - Miles Ahead
Miles Teller - Bleed For This
Joe Alwyn - Billy Lynn's