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Personal Ballot: Best Supporting Actress

"Must admit to not having seen "20th Century Women" yet. I'm already an Elle Fanning admirer. So I'm looking forward to seeing whether she or Greta Gerwig can shake up my list." - Ken

INTERVIEWS

Pablo Larraín (Jackie)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)
Gael García Bernal (Neruda)
Billy Crudup (20th Century Women)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival

 

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

January 17th Predictions

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
This race is fairly settled unlike the other acting races with the precursors largely agreeing

Casey Affleck
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(41 yrs old | 33rd movie | 1 nomination)
Nov 18th

Wins
NBRGotham , Critics Choice, NYFCC,  Globe

Nominations
Spirit, SAG

He's masterful in this drama as an emotionally wrecked man whose life suddenly changes when his brother dies and he has to raise his nephew and is thrust back into life in the town he purposefully left. Precursors have anointed him en masse.

Denzel Washington
FENCES
(61 yrs old | 45th movie
6 noms | 2 wins)
Dec 25th

Wins
--

Nominations

Critics Choice,  GlobeSAG

He won the Tony for this role on Broadway as a former Baseball great hopeful ex-con with many regrets. We know Oscar loves him and he's on fire here - his best work since Malcolm X. He does justice to this great play

Andrew Garfield
HACKSAW RIDGE
(33 yrs old | 20 movies | never nom'd)
Nov 4th

Wins
--

Nominations
Critics Choice ,  GlobeSAG

Garfield plays the first Conscientous Objector in American history during WW II and Oscar loves an inspiration true story. But will the hokey early scenes (rough acting!) get in the way of the stronger war scenes? Bonus Points: Silence

Ryan Gosling
LA LA LAND
(35 yrs old | 22nd movie | 1 nomination)
Dec 16th  

Wins
Globe 

Nominations
Critics Choice,  SAG

Men rarely get nominated for musicals or for being such charming romantic leads. Oscar has unconscious biases that way. On the other hand, he's just terrific, it's the frontrunning film, and the precursors have been kind

Viggo Mortensen
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC
(57 yrs old | 48th movie | 1 nomination)
July 8th 

Wins
--

Nominations
Spirit, Critics Choice,  GlobeSAG

He's superb as the eccentric patriarch of a survivalist clan. Despite an early release the SAG ensemble vote suggests real (deserved) passion for this star turn

 

 

Tier 2 - Potential Spoilers and Surprises

Tom Hanks
SULLY 
(60 yrs old | 50th film | 5 noms | 2 wins)
Sept 9th 

Nominations
Critics Choice

  While they ignored his last two great performances (despite loving the films) eventually won't they have to notice he's doing better work now than in his gold-o-plenty heyday? The film's great box office won't hurt 

Joel Edgerton
LOVING
(42 yrs old | 36th movie | never nominated)
Nov 4th 

Nominations
Gotham, Critics Choice,  Globe

He's worked with everyone already which can't hurt in a popularity contest (which, shhhh, the Oscars are) but the character is very inexpressive which could hurt his chances against showier parts.

Michael Keaton
THE FOUNDER
(64 yrs old | 40th movie | 1 nomination)
Dec 16th 

Nominations
-- 

 The buzz for this fast-food business died when they shifted the release to the last second. Of strange note though: a few widely read LA journalists seem to be obsessed with making Keaton happen (though his work doesn't really stand up to most of hte presumed leaders this year)

 

Sunny Pawar
LION
8 yrs old | first film
Nov 25th 

Nominations
--

 Lion was growing in fanbase during the voting and Sunny is adorable (and so emotionally real in the movie -- not unlike Quvenzhane in Beasts of the Southern Wild). Let's put it this way. If this were an actress category, he'd have a great shot but double standards, you know.

Ryan Reynolds
DEADPOOL
(40 yrs old | 35th movie | never nom'ed)
Feb 12th  

Nominations
Globe

 Hollywood has been banking on him for so long through so many flops that everyone seems delighted that he's had such a huge success that he was so personality invested in. Rooting for someone can go a long way.

 

 

Tier 3 - Vote Siphoning From?

 

Jake Gyllenhaal - Nocturnal Animals BAFTA nom
Adam Driver - Paterson - LAFCA win
Warren Beatty
- Rules Don't Apply
Matthew McConaughey
- Gold
Chris Pine -
Hell or High Water
Nate Parker -
Birth of a Nation
Logan Lergman - Indignation
Michael Fassbender - Light Between Oceans
Colin Farrell - The Lobster  Globe Nom
Don Cheadle - Miles Ahead