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"It's an excellent film, very well balanced, full of fascinating talking heads, and beautifully put together." -Edward L

"This should be the fashion documentary that makes it through to the final 5." - Peggy Sue

"I saw this in the UK last week. I was fascinated --especially the relationship with Blow and reflections on his gender politics. Would recommend." - catbaskets

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog


Tier 1 - Prediction

We're suspecting an all previous nominee year. No newbies. Will that pan out?

Steve Carell

55 yrs old | 1 nom
Release TBA

Carell is headlining two could-be tearjerkers this year between the addiction drama Beautiful Boy and this film about a man dealing with his PTSD after a brutal attaack by creating an elaborate WW II era Belgian town in his backyard. His fantasy wold and his real world begin to mix.

Ryan Gosling
37 yrs old | 2 noms
Oct 12th

Gosling waited nearly a decade from his first nomination to his second but we suspect number three won't take as long. That said, will there be enough inherent emotional drama in this story of Neil Armstrong to let him work his magic? 

Christian Bale
44 yrs old | 3 noms | 1 win
Dec 21st

Oscar voters and critics love him. But there is one worry: will people really want to see a political film about Dick Cheney, even one with a darkly comic bent, in this year when the earth is on fire with our democracy collapsing via the perpetual moral vacuum of the GOP?

Ethan Hawke

47 yrs old | 2 noms for acting
May 18th

Our hunch is he's going to become a "cause" among actors to get nominated -- like Javier Bardem for Biutiful or Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah --for the finest acting of his career in this riveting psychological drama

Bradley Cooper

43 yrs old | 3 noms *in acting*
Oct 5th

It's hard to direct yourself into Oscar contention but the acting branch does enjoy his work and if this hews close to the other films he'll get to play a suicidal alcoholic has-been so he'll have a lot to work with!


Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Steve Carell
55 yrs old | 1 nomination
Oct 12th

A sure to be touching role as the father to an addict (Timothee Chalamet) but will they like him subtle as we expect he'll be here or more tic-filled as we expect he'll be in The Women of Marwen. Either way he's our strongest hunch to win Best Actor.

Willem Dafoe

62 yrs old | 3 nominations
Release TBA

He's playing Vincent van Gogh in one of the most dramatic periods of his life (deteriating health, the ear incident, etcetera)

Lucas Hedges

21 yrs old | 1 nomination
Nov 2nd

If he were to be nominated he'd already pushed   Timothée Chalamet down a notch on the Youngest To... history books. He plays a gay boy sent to a conversion camp.

Also leads Ben is Back this year

Hugh Jackman
49 yrs old | 1 nomination
Nov 7th

Now that he's finally free of that adamantium skeleton he can make musicals (last year's hit The Greatest Showman) and go on the hunt for an Oscar -- as he might here playing disgraced politician Gary Hart.

Michael B Jordan
Nov 21st

If the sequel somehow lives up to the brilliance of its predecessor could Jordan be swept up in a fervor of time to welcome him in... considering he was also amazing in Black Panther

Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Rory Kinnear

40 yrs old | never nominated
Nov 9th

Mike Leigh's films are notoriously fluid in the making. For all we know he could be a mere cameo, depending on how the writing process with the actors went. But Kinnear's character has potential as he was a famous radical speaker in this era and was involved in the incident that the film is about.

Robert Redford
81 yrs old | 1 nomination *for acting
Fox Searchlight
Sept 28th

Redford acted for director David Lowery in Pete's Dragon and they're together again for this dramedy about an elderly bank robber. It's weird that Robert Redford only has 1 acting nomination.

Rami Malek
36 yrs old | never nominated
Nov 2nd

He's playing Freddie Mercury. He looks perfect in stills but this production was troubled given what what going on on set and off with Bryan Singer. That's not Malek's fault but lots of people side with their anger towards directors these days when it comes to evaluated an unrelated person's art. We'll see.

Joaquin Phoenix

43 yrs old | 3 noms
April 6th

Critics raved about the performance but the release was small and the film didn't cross out of the arthouse theaters. Unless there's a big campaign...

also leads two other films this year


John David Washington

33 yrs old | never nominated
Aug 10th

Denzel's son takes the lead. The film was beloved at Cannes... but that's a different atmosphere than mainstream releasing. Plus it's likely to be regarded as Spike Lee's triumph rather than the actors involved.


Tier 4a Will they actually arrive in 2018 or be pushed back? And for those that are released will they get wide enough attention?

Ben Mendelsohn - Land of Steady Habits, Garret Hedlund - Burden, Javier Bardem - Everybody Knows, Jeffrey Wright -OG, Sam Rockwell -Best of Enemies,

Tier 5 - Other Male Leads in 2018

(Alphabetical Order) Chadwick Boseman -Black Panther, Andrew Garfield - Under the Silver Lake, Oscar Isaac - Life Itself, John Krasinski - A Quiet Place, Matthew McConaughey - Serenity, Matthew McConaughey - White Boy Rick, Richie Merrit - White Boy Rick, Ed Oxenbould - Wildlife, Robert Pattinson High Life, Joaquin Phoenix - The Sisters Brothers,   Joaquin Phoenix - Don't Worry He Wont' Get Far On Foot, Brad Pitt -Ad Astra, Charlie Plummer - Lean on Pete, John C Reilly - The Sisasters Brothers, Alexander Skarsgård - the Aftermath, LaKeith Stanfield - Sorry to Bother You, Jacob Tremblay - The Death and Life of John F Donovan,Matt Dillon - The House That Jack Built, Michael Shannon - What They Had