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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

APRIL FOOLISH PREDICTIONS COMING SOON
PAGE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION 

BEFORE THE PREDICTIONS - A REMINDER FOR THE CONSCIENTOUS VOTER
The conscientous movie lover, critic, or Academy member doesn't wait until the end of the year to draw up best lists. They consider their opptions early and often. The following are not endorsements per se just leading actors who've already been talked about this year. See their films, draw your own conclusions. 
Josh Brolin
Hail, Caesar!
(1 nom)
Don Cheadle
Miles Ahead
(1 nom)
John Goodman
10 Cloverfield Lane
(never nom'ed)
Jake Gyllenhaal
Demolition
(1 nom)
Tom Hiddleston
High-Rise
(never nom'ed)

 

 

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Denzel Washington
Fences
(noms | 2 wins)

He won the Tony for this role on Broadway as a former Baseball great hopeful ex-con with many regrets. We know Oscar loves him. Will he do the play justic behind the camera?

Casey Affleck
Manchester by the Sea
(1 nomination)

He's already won raves for this drama as an emotionally wrecked man whose life suddenly changes when his brother dies and he has to become guardian to his nephew

Michael Keaton
The Founder
(1 nomination)

Keaton's on a roll with two Best Picture winners in as many years. Can he follow up that Birdman nomination with another for this sneaky businessman role?

Nate Parker
Birth of a Nation
(never nom'ed)

The film made huge waves at Sundance and Parker directed himself in this meaty role as a preacher slave who leads a massacre rebellion. Fox Searchlight bet big and will push it.

Joel Edgerton
Loving
(never nom'd)

He plays a man imprisoned for marrying a black woman in this true story that takes place in the 1950s. He's probably got a lot of goodwill in Hollywood given how much he's been working

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Tom Hanks
Sully
(5 noms | 2 wins)

*OSCAR COMEBACK?*

While they ignored his last two great performances (despite loving the films) eventually won't they have to notice he's doing better work now than in his gold-o-plenty heyday? But Eastwood films are inconsistent. We'll see.

Andrew Garfield
Silence
(never nom'd)

While we don't know who truly "leads" this picture, one suspects it's Garfield (rather than Adam Driver) as two missionaries search for their mentor and try to endure a hostile environment

Viggo Mortensen
Captain Fantastic
(1 nomination)

He's the eccentric patriarch of a survivalist clan. Viggo is a great great actor but his filmography has been odd  - what wonders what it will take Oscar to step up for him again.

Dev Patel
Lion
(never nominated)

This has the potential to be a tearjerking sleeper hit (if it's good or just goodish) and if it is, look out for Dev Patel as a 25 yr old Australian searching for his birth parents in India

David Oyelowo
United Kingdom
(never nominated)

We have two big true story films about interracial marriages this year. One is A United Kingdom where Oyelowo weds Rosamund Pike.

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

Joe Alwyn
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

*WILD CARD*

We could have a new star here. Early buzz on the film is promising. But can Ang Lee pull it off? It sounds ambitious. And Satire is never a sure thing with audiences. 

Michael Fassbender
The Light Between Oceans
(2 nominations)

Fassbender doesn't campaign and this looks like it might be more of a showcase for the women. Our guess is Assassin's Creed is the project people notice (in other ways) this year.

Chris Pratt
Passengers
(never nom'ed)

Hollywood is trusting him to carry a picture alone on a spaceship... at least until he wakes up Jennifer Lawrence in this deep freeze sci-fi drama about two people waking up decades before they're supposed to.

Ryan Gosling
La La Land
(1 nom)

Gosling in a musical? Sign us up. But it's hard to get nominated for musicals. Especially if you're a man. Oscar has unconscious biases that way.

Brad Pitt
Allied
(2 noms | 1 win)

This could be a great showcase as a man whose wife is suspecting of being a spy in WW II. On the other hand Zemeckis films aren't the hot properties they used to be. We'll see.

 

 

Tier 4 - Other Male Leads This Year (no particular order)

Jake Gyllenhaal - Demolition or Nocturnal Animals; Alex Sharp - How to Talk to Girls at Parties; Javier Bardem - The Last Face; Woody Harrelson - Wilson or LBJ; Edgar Ramirez - Hands of Stone; Joseph Gordon-Levitt - Snowden; Michael Fassbender - Assassin's Creed; Brendan Gleeson - Alone in Berlin; Colin Firth - Genius; Will Smith - Collateral Beauty; Tom Hiddleston - High-Rise; Gabriel Luna - Transpecos; Billy Crudup - 20th Century Women; Logan Lerman - Indignation