It was a stacked field this year. In terms of precursor support both Michael Fassbender and Leonardo DiCaprio both seemed like solid guesses. Fassbender in particular has a lot of critical enthusiasm and media support though his film was always going to be a tough sell with Academy voters. Critical darling Michael Shannon (Take Shelter) also seemed to be in play but couldn't manage a second surprise nomination without precursor support (a la Revolutionary Road). Nathaniel's Personal Ballot