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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

OCTOBER 20th PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predictions
This contest is suddenly bursting with strong candidates and even multiple conceivable winners.

Willem Dafoe

62 yrs old | 95 films | 2 noms
THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Oct 6th

 Gotham nomination

Rave reviews for his work in this indie. And his empathetic work is a good way to honor a film with such humanity.

 Kevin Spacey
58 yrs old | 48 films | 2 noms | 2 wins
ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Dec 8th

 

As the real life billionaire whose grandson was kidnapped. Since lead actor is weaker -- maybe push for that in the 'dominates the film even if he isn't the protagonist' style? Oscar loves heavy latex star turns!

Sam Rockwell
48 yrs old | 62 films | never nominated
THREE BILLBOARDS
Nov 10th

Getting a surprising share of MVP notices given the raves for McDormand. He's a reliable character actor that the industry would probably love to invite to the big show.

Richard Jenkins
70 yrs old | 77 films | 1 nomination
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

 

It's a "baity" role -- not only does he narrate the romantic fable but he plays the best gay friend of the mute lead. Like Octavia he's often her mouthpiece.

Michael Stuhlbarg
49 yrs old | 24 films | never nominated
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Nov 24th

 He plays a progressive father to a young queer teen. Said to have a great late film monologue - Oscar clip scene, hello! Plus he has THREE best picture candidates this year.

 
Tier 2- STRONG SPOILER POSSIBILITIES...

Michael Stuhlbarg
49 yrs old | films | never nominated
THE POST
Dec 22nd

His role is supposedly good. Might this overshadow his Call Me By Your Name work? In three possible Picture nominees this year

 Jason Mitchell
30 yrs old | films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
Nov 17th

He's already past the hurdle of great reviews and if they remember how good he was in Straight Outta Compton, too. Plus he's terrific in a small but key role in Kathryn Bigelo's Detroit

Laurence Fishburne

56 yrs old | 59 films | 1 nomination
LAST FLAG FLYING
Nov 3rd

This looks like a three lead film but since he's third billed, expect his pastor vet to be campaigned here.

Ben Mendelsohn
48 yrs old | 43 films | never nominated
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 22nd

This role won Colin Firth an Oscar (The King's Speech) and his voice is recognizably changed from his usual chill Aussie. Oscar does love a royal and he steals one of the film's best scenes.

Armie Hammer
31 yrs old | 17 films | never nominated
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Nov 24th

 

He romances his boss's son in this acclaimed drama about first love. Winning "best work of his career" reviewsbut romantic nominations for men are tough to come by.
 
Tier 3 - Could Be Contenders
Mark Rylance
57 yrs old | 14 films | 1 nom | 1 win
DUNKIRK
July 21st
 

He's probably the safest bet for a campaign in this ensemble film. But on the other hand it's much more of a director's picture than an actor's showcase

Christoph Waltz
60 yrs old | 36 films | 2 noms | 2 wins
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

 

It's a showy Eurotrash role in a film that's likely to attract as many obsessive fans as detractors. We shall see if Oscar is still in love with him.

Harrison Ford
75 yrs old | 50 films | 1 nomination
BLADE RUNNER 2049
Oct 6th

 If voters were touched by his revival of Han Solo here's a second chance to honor him for a reprisal and for being such a giant movie star within pop culture.
Jamie Bell
31 yrs old | 20 films | never nominated
FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
Dec 15th

 

Playing a young man who falls for a dying movie star he's utterly fantastic / moving. But they rarely go for men doing romantic drama well. They leave those nominations for the women.

Garret Hedlund
33 yrs old | 16 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
Nov 17th

Won terrific reviews for this sprawling drama at Sundance. But Mitchell will likely be the one if someone is nominated

 
Tier 4 - Too early to rule anyone out!

2018 now

  • Pryce & Slater - The Wife
  • Greyeyes - Woman Walks Ahead

Other Supporting Men

  • Hoffman - Meyerowitz Stories
  • Belushi - Wonder Wheel
  • Brown - Marshall
  • Birmingham - Wind River
  • Leto - Blade Runner 2049
  • Mendelsohn - Darkest Hour
  • Stewart - Logan
  • Fazal - Victoria & Abdul
  • Farrel - Roman Israel Esq
  • Harrelson - Glass Castle / Three Billboards
  • Isaac - Suburbicon

Idris Elba
45 yrs old | 36 films | never nominated
MOLLY'S GAME
Nov 22nd

Everyone loves him and there's some pockets of enthusiasm for the film. Eventually he'll be nominated.

Ray Romano
59 yrs old | 8 films | never nominated
THE BIG SICK
Nov 17th

He's a wonderful scene partner for both Kumail Nanjiani and Holly Hunter. But can the sleeper hit survive the onslaught of fall prestige releases for awards play?