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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

APRIL FOOLISH PREDICTIONS

 

BEFORE THE PREDICTIONS - A REMINDER FOR THE CONSCIENTOUS VOTER
The conscientous movie lover, critic, or Academy member doesn't wait until the end of the year to draw up best lists. They consider their options early and often. The following are not endorsements per se just supporting actors who've already been seen and praised this year. See their films, draw your own conclusions. 
Alden Ehrenreich
Hail, Caesar!
(never nom'ed)
Ralph Ineson
The Witch
(never nom'ed)
Peter Mullan
Sunset Song
(never nom'ed)
Ian Pirie
Sunset Song
(never nom'ed)
Christopher Walken
The Family Fang
(2 noms | 1 win)
Conscientous voters shouldn't wait to get started considering their options... See these films. "Consider..."
 

 

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Liam Neeson
Silence
(1 nom)

We don't know how much screentime anyone will have in this missionary epic but Neeson is the mentor of the young priests searching for him in Japan. And he's a much bigger star than he was back when he got his first nomination.

Tadanobu Asano
Silence
(never nominated)

*WILD CARD*

You may remember him from Thor or Zatoichi or the Oscar nominated Mongol. He replaced Ken Watanabe as the translator travelling with the Priests in 17th century Japan. We suspect a good role, and he's not exactly unknown even if his name doesn't role off the tongue

Steve Martin
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
(never nominated | 1 honorary)

He's the charming fictional owner of the Dallas Cowboys in this story which mostly takes place on a Thanksgiving day game. It'd be so sweet to finally see him nominated.

Mykelti Williamson
Fences
(never nominated)

While he was not Tony nominated for this role on Broadway Oscar votes may remember and love him as "Bubba" from Forrest Gump and Oscar loves a disability. (His character suffers from war injuries.)

Aaron Eckhart
Sully
(never nom'd)

*WISHFUL THINKING PICK*

I can't claim confidence in this one but Eckhart has been a sturdy movie presence for years with no recognition. And playing second fiddle to Tom Hanks (he's the copilot or the emergency plane landing) is often a good luck charm for actors

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Michael Shannon
Loving
(1 nom)

He plays the photographer who is documenting the case of the Lovings (an interracial couple jailed for their marriage) so he could be the audience surrogate into the world. Plus actors love him. 

Nick Offerman
The Founder
(never nom'd)

Will people ever see him as anything but Ron Swanson? We'll find out in this dramatic turn as one of the McDonald's brothers, at war with Michael Keaton

Lucas Hedges
Manchester by the Sea
(never nom'd)

Getting great "discovery!" reviews for his turn as Casey Affleck's newly orphaned nephew in this acclaimed drama. But he's young for Oscar love

Stephen Henderson
Fences
(never nom'd)

He was Tony nominated for playing Denzel's best friend in Fences. Will reprising the role get him an Oscar nom? 

Hugh Grant
Florence Foster Jenkins
(never nom'd)

Getting good reviews and wouldn't it be sweet to finally see him nominated. An undervalued enduring charmbomb

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

Jovan Adepo
Fences
(never nom'd)

Adepo (The Leftovers) is one of the only new castmembers (Fences is getting most of its Broadway cast on film) as the youngest son at odds with his father. It's a really good role but he's young for Oscar love.

Craig Robinson
Morris From America
(never nom'd)

Reviews were strong for Chad Hartigan's Sundance entry and for Robinson as Morris's father. But will it get a significant release and be pushed for gold?

Armie Hammer
Birth of a Nation
(never nom'd)

Most reviews suggest the film is heavily concentrated on Nat Turner and doesn't give its supporting cast much to do. Except for Hammer as Turner's owner 

JK Simmons
La La Land
(1 nom | 1 win)

He won the Oscar for Chazelle's Whiplash. Reteaming now so will magic strike again or will this be all about the Gosling/Stone musical duet?

Jude Law
Genius
(2 noms)

Already a divisive performance as author Thomas Wolfe (reportedly very showy) in this drama about literary giants starring Colin Firth. And a co-lead role which always helps in supporting. 

 

Tier 4 - Other Supporting Players

Beat Up Little seagull - Kiefer Sutherland
Birth of a Nation - Armie Hammer, Jackie Earle Haley
Cafe Society - Steve Carell
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - Vin Diesel, Garrett Hedlund, Ben Platt
Collateral Beauty - Edward Norton, Michael Peña
The Zookeeper's Wife - Daniel Brühl, Johan Heldenbergh, Iddo Goldberg
The Founder - John Carroll Lynch
Silence - Adam Driver
Fences - Saniyya Sidney
Story of Your Life - Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker
Alone in Berlin -Daniel Brühl
Manchester by the Sea - Kyle Chandler
Lion - David Wenham 
The Yellow Birds - Jack Huston