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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders for 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog


September 28th Predicted Five

Michael Keaton
1 nomination
(Open Road)
Nov 5th

Mark Ruffalo
2 nominations
(Open Road)
Nov 5th

Benicio Del Toro
2 noms | 1 win
Sept 18th

Tom Hardy
never nominated
The Revenant
Jacob Tremblay
never nominated
They're arguably leads but then it is a true ensemble movie so we'll forgive the iffy categorization. The whole cast is going supporting and though double nods are rare in Supporting Actor (last time: Bugsy, 1991) it will likely happen here for these very opposite mood roles by two well loved actors (both of whom Oscar arguably owes)

He lets his huge screen presence do a lot of the work in this menacing ever present but backgrounded role... until he takes over the narrative. Memorable and a likely nominee.

 He's a hot commodity right now, and despite rumors of tussles with Inarritu, he's a fine actor and he's also winning raves for Legend upping the ante on "what an actor! / it's his time" feelings Little boys are rare with acting honors but since he's perfection in a demanding lead role it could happen. Especially since Brie Larson (Actress) and Best Picture are within reach for nods
Tier 2 - Also Look Like Good Bets This (Too) Early

Harvey Keitel
1 nomination
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Mark Rylance
never nominated
Bridge of Spies
Oct 16th
Samuel L Jackson 
1 nomination
The Hateful Eight 
(Weinstein Co) 
Kurt Russell 
never nominated
The Hateful Eight 
(Weinstein Co)

Idris Elba
never nominated
Beasts of No Nation

Oscar loves a co-lead role in this category and can you believe that Harvey Keitel has just one nomination to his name? Plus he's playing a movie director!

Rylance is brilliant but doesn't make many movies - will Oscar's theater-savvy members rally round him?

While early buzz has mostly revolved around Samuel L Jackson (Tarantino's most frequent actor) and Kurt Russell (said to be John-Wayne like and a career tribute nomination seems likely if he's great) you never know until you're watching a Tarantino picture who is going to emerge as its MVP. We shall see.

While it's too early to suss out whether Oscar will be willing to embrace a film that's part of the model to end 88 years of Oscar history (i.e. who cares about theatrical distribution) people love Elba
Tier 3 - or maybe ?
Seth Rogen
never nominated
Steve Jobs
Oct 9th

Robert De Niro
7 noms | 2 wins

Bradley Cooper
3 noms (for acting)
Edgar Ramirez
never nominated
Sylvester Stallone
1 nom
Nov 25th
 I accidentally captioned this photo "jonah hill" at first. Ooops but same principle. Oscar loves a comic actor who gets serious in prestige films. Playing real people always helps, too. Early word strong on his performance and the film itself


 Robert De Niro is the father and Bradley Cooper a Home Shopping Network executive to Jennifer Lawrence's entrepeneural single mom. Good roles or flashy cameos? Can magic strike twice or thrice for David O. Russell and his troupe of muses?  
He's been making quite a name for himself the past few years but this could well be his big breakout as JLaw's man. Will Oscar get excited about him?  Oscar loves boxing movies. Sly Stallone -- trivia alert -- is exactly the same age now (69) that his mentor Burgess Meredith was when he was nominated for supporting actor for Rocky (1976) 
Tier 4 - Stand Alone Candidates & Manly Ensembles

(in presumed order of longshot possibility)
The Martian - Ejiofor, Daniels; Spotlight - Tucci, Schreiber; Hateful 8 - Dern, Tatum, Bichir, Roth, Goggins, Madsen; In the Heart of the Sea - Holland, Gleeson, Murphy; Trumbo - Goodman, Stuhlbarg, Tudyk; Brooklyn - Gleeson, Cohen , Concussion- Morse, Baldwin, Marsan ; The Big Short - anyone

Brendan Gleeson - Suffragette;  Robert Redford - Truth, Forrest Whitaker - Southpaw; Alan Alda - Bridge of Spies; Josh Brolin - Sicario; Hugh Jackman -Pan; Domnhall Gleeson - The Revenant; Jason Segel - End of the Tour; Joel Edgerton - Black Mass; Sam Elliott - Grandma