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92nd Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2019 (for the 2020 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

OCTOBER 18TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

The race is firming up unless the precursors throw curveballs.

 

 

Brad Pitt
55 years old | 3 noms *in acting
ONCE UPON A TIME...
July 26th

*Borderline Lead*

 People love him in the movie - a true star turn - but it's not the type of role that he could be nominated in lead for so they've opted for supporting. The nomination is likely but a win will be a tougher.

 

Al Pacino
78 years old | 8 noms | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN
November 1st

 He's playing real life infamous union leader Jimmy Hoffa presumably slain in '75 (his body has never been found) and he reportedly steals the show. Plus goodwill from Once Upon a Tim in Hollywood. Comeback nom here he comes!

Willem Dafoe

63 yrs old | 4 nominations
THE LIGHTHOUSE
October 18th

*Total Category Fraud*

He's on a career roll at the moment and is all kinds of showy and awardable in this surreal two-hander set in the early 1900s.

Tom Hanks
62 years old | 5 noms | 2 wins
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN...
Nov 22nd

 

 Playing the TV star Fred Rogers, an icon of goodness and thus right in Hanks wheelhouse. Even though his screen time is limited the whole movie revolves around him.

 

 

 

Joe Pesci
76 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
THE IRISHMAN 
November 1st

  Real life character and Oscar history. Both of his nominations (and his win) come from Scorsese pictures. He'd also have a comeback narrative. But there is internal competition and he isn't planning to campaign.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Sterling K Brown

43 yrs old | never nominated
WAVES
November 15th 

 

  If Waves shows up in Best Picture, he could well come with it as a prestigious TV actor making good in a feature. He's terrific and much different than he is as another patriarch in This is Us.

Alan Alda
83 years old | 1 nomination
MARRIAGE STORY
November 6th 

 

 He's so likeable and entertaining as a less than ferocious divorce attorney in this great film that will surely appeal to the acting branch. He's been nominated for less! That said. this category is hotly competitive.

Tracy Letts
53 years old | 
never nominated
FORD V FERRARI
November 15th

Real life character and fun performance. Letts is a national treasure but Oscar hasn't realized it yet. And this category now prefers leading men which works against the characters actors the category was designed for.

Anthony Hopkins
81 yrs old | 4 noms | 1 win
THE TWO POPES
November 27th

 

 Oscar loves actors as real life famous characters. He plays Pope Benedict. They might prefer Pryce or they could become a package deal. We shall see.

Taika Waititi
yrs old | never nominated in acting
JOJO RABBIT
October 18th 

 

 Though Oscar is often dinged for not liking comedies the place they like it best is in the supporting acting categories. His absurdist take on Hitler could win some votes. Unless they feel Director/Picture is enough

 

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...
  • Labeouf / Hedges -Honey Boy
  • Turturro -Gloria Bell
  • Harrison Jr / Hedges - Waves
  • Majors - Last Black Man
  • Banderas/ Oldman - Laundromat
  • Robbins - Dark Waters
  • Bell - Rocketman

John Lithgow

73 years old | 2 nominations
BOMBSHELL
Dec 20th

 

 Real life character. He's playing Roger Aisles in this sexual harassment drama which is a showy part. But the nature of the role could be too off-putting and that's a shit ton of prosthetics!

Jamie Foxx
51 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
JUST MERCY 
Dec 25th

 

  Real life character and provocative story but Christmas is a late date this year given the rushed season and that reviews for the film haven't been unqualified raves. 

Aldis Hodge
32 years old | never nominated
CLEMENCY 
Dec 27th 

He's playing a death row inmate and has won fine reviews. The problem could well be the release date (that's very late -particulary this year)

Ray Liotta
64 yrs old | never nominated
MARRIAGE STORY
November 6th 

 

 If the acting branch really goes wild for Marriage Story, they could show up in every category... and he could be a surprise in a Jacki Weaver kind of way for a small amusing part.