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Gotham Noms- The Favourite, First Reformed, Hereditary

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

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OCTOBER 14TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predictions

Just to reiterate the order on the nomination charts is never about wins -- we don't do that prior to nominations. So it's in order of likelihood to be nominated. We require a film to have actually met Oscar eligibility requirements (i.e. already opened in theaters) before anything can be "locked up".

Enjoy!

 

Sam Elliott
73 yrs old | never nominated 
A STAR IS BORN
Oct 5th

He nails this role that couldn't possibly be a better fit for him, bringing a lifetime of history and codependency with his rock star half-brother. Elliott has been having a mini-renaissance these past few years, so it's career achievement time!

Mahershala Ali
44 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
GREEN BOOK
Nov 21st

He plays a classical pianist on tour in the American south and the film is a genuine crowdpleaser. Plus he's a co-lead which incongruously makes supporting heat easy to come by.

Sam Rockwell
49 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
VICE
Dec 21st

Vice, formerly known as Backseat, is the big question mark movie in the acting categories. He's playing George W Bush so we know the role will be large (given that it's a Cheney biopic). Will Rockwell be great or fun enough to get a victory lap nomination post Three Billboards?

Richard E Grant
60 yrs old | never nominated
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Oct 19th

This wonderful Brit, who was everywhere in the early 90s could have a come back with this deeply charming but also annoying (purposefully so) turn as a promiscuous drunk gay of a certain age who gets caught up in Lee Israel's schemes.

Timothée Chalamet
22 yrs old | 1 nomination
BEAUTIFUL BOY
Oct 12th

He's the title character in this drama about a young drug addict and his relationship with his father. He could even win given the Call Me By Your Name guilt. (i.e. everyone in the Academy knows he should have won for that. Right? Right!) But the movie might have trouble sticking around given the reviews

 

Tier 2 - Also Possibly Formidable...

All of these men seem plausible too for wildly varying reasons...

Russell Crowe
54 yrs old | 3 noms | 1 win
BOY ERASED
Sept 28th

The Academy loves a comeback and he's quite moving in this LGBT drama as a religious father who just can't get over his son's gayness. The question is can the movie prove energizing enough for two supporting nods (Kidman has more screen time) given the flashier films around it?

Michael B Jordan
31 yrs old | never nominated
BLACK PANTHER
Feb 16th

Everyone in Hollywood loves Black Panther and he should have been nominated already (hi, Creed). Perhaps Creed 2 arriving as Black Panther's Oscar campaign heats up will remind everyone that he's the best thing in this picture. What kind of campaign will Disney mount for him?

 Robert Forster
77 yrs old | 1 nomination
WHAT THEY HAD
Oct 19th

He steals this actor-showcase movie as the doting husband of an alzheimer's patient at odds with his grown children over her care. It's complex funny and moving work in a very well acted ensemble piece. But will the modest family drama picture get enough attention?

Daniel Kaluuya
29 yrs old | 1 nomination
WIDOWS
Nov 16th

A nomination here would require major across-the- board love for the film since its a very small mostly silent part, but once they notice you, it's easier. And they've already noticed him. What's more he does a 180º from his Oscar nominated turn to play this very scary mostly silent killer. And Oscar likes a villain in this category.

 Dick Van Dyke
92 yrs old | never nominated
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Dec 25th

The trailer suggests he might only have one scene but if he's as enjoyable as we're expecting and the role is at least a couple of big scenes, it's easy to imagine an 'honor the career!' scenario. He's a showbiz legend and he's 92. The campaign tactics write themselves!

 
Tier 3 - Long Shots?

Adam Driver
34 yrs old | never nominated 
BLACK KLANSMAN
Aug 10th

He's one of the best actors of his generation and no stranger to being MVP of casts he's in. That said the optics of a nomination for this when no other actors seem likely for it will probably be too much given the current mood. Also the movie's buzz is fading. Can it rally again?

 

Alessandro Nivola
46 yrs old | never nominated
DISOBEDIENCE
April 27th

This movie has some great acting but will anyone notice given the release date and minor box office? He's excellent again as a troubled rabbi. Somehow he's still waiting for that one role to make his career as big as his talent, though.

J.K. Simmons

63 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
THE FRONT RUNNER
Nov 21st

He plays the tense campaign manager in this dark political film about Gary Hart's Presidential dreams and career implosion.  Festival reviews weren't particularly strong so he'll need a warmer reception when the film arrives to regular audiences for Thanksgiving.

Riz Ahmed
35 yrs old | never nominated
THE SISTERS BROTHERS
Sept 21st

It would be a great career time to honor this career. He's said to be terrific in this picture (again) but reviews dont seem to have consensus on which actor is "best in show" which might make a campaign difficult.

 

Alex Wolff 
20 yrs old | never nominated
HEREDITARY
June 8th

If there's one critical "coattails" momentum to root for it's Woolf's frighteningly strong work as crazy Colette's terrorized son in this horror drama. He's unexpectedly amazing in it... but Oscar voters do regularly shun horror.

 
Tier 4- Other Key Supporting Men

Tyler Perry / Steve Carell in Vice
Jason Clarke
in First Man
Mads Mikkelsen / Oscar Isaac  in At Eternity's Gate
Bryan Tyree Henry in Widows
Colman Domingo in If Beale Street Could Talk 
David Tennant in Mary Queen of Scots
Jake Gyllenhaal in The Sisters Brothers
Armie Hammer in On the Basis of Sex
Topher Grace / Corey Hawkins in Blackkklansman
Lin Manuel Miranda / Ben Whishaw in Mary Poppins Returns
Jonathan Pryce / Christian Slater  in The Wife
Bill Camp / Jake Gyllenhaal in Wildlife