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The Film Experience™ was created by Nathaniel R. Gemini, Cinephile, Actressexual. All material herein is written and copyrighted by Nathaniel or a member of our team as noted.

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LUCAS HEDGES x 2
BOY ERASED & BEN IS BACK

 

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The whole cast is nominated... EXCEPT YOU

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

DECEMBER 9TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predictions

We're keeping the top 5 the exact same after the Globe nominations. We still have faith that Sam Elliott will be Oscar nominated. He just wasn't glamorous enough for the Globes.

 

Richard E Grant

60 yrs old | never nominated
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Oct 19th

nomsGothamSpirit
Globe Critics Choice SAG
winsNYFCC

This wonderful Brit, who was everywhere in the early 90s could have a come back with this deeply charming but also annoying (purposefully so) turn as a promiscuous drunk gay of a certain age who gets caught up in Lee Israel's schemes.

Review | Podcast 

Mahershala Ali
44 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
GREEN BOOK
Nov 21st

nomsGlobe Critics Choice SAG
wins: --

 CATEGORY FRAUD ALERT - It's a two hander movie, they're both leads. He plays a classical pianist on tour in the American south and the film is a genuine crowdpleaser. Plus he's a co-lead which incongruously makes supporting heat easy to come by.

 

Review | Podcast
 | More Ali
 

Sam Elliott
73 yrs old | never nominated 
A STAR IS BORN
Oct 5th

noms: Critics ChoiceSAGSAG (Ens.)
wins:  NBR

He nails this role that couldn't possibly be a better fit for him, bringing a lifetime of history and codependency with his rock star half-brother. Elliott has been having a mini-renaissance these past few years, so it's career achievement time!

Review | Podcast  | More Elliott

Adam Driver
34 yrs old | never nominated 
BLACK KLANSMAN
Aug 10th

nomsGothamSpirit
GlobeCritics Choice SAG, SAG (Ens.)

wins: --

He's one of the best actors of his generation and no stranger to being MVP of casts he's in. That said the optics of a nomination for this when no other actors seem likely for might spoil the momentum for him. On the other hand the film looks poised to make a Best Picture splash so he might well be in.

Review | Podcast 
| More Driver

Sam Rockwell
49 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
VICE
Dec 21st

 

noms: Globe
wins: --

 Vice
, formerly known as Backseat, is winning early raves for Bale and Adams. But Rockwell's near cameo as George W Bush already netted him a Globe nom. Will he get a victory lap for Three Billboards?

 

Trailer | More Rockwell

 

Tier 2 - Also Possibly Formidable...

All of these men seem plausible too for wildly varying reasons...

 

Timothée Chalamet

22 yrs old | 1 nomination
BEAUTIFUL BOY
Oct 12th

nomsGlobeCritics Choice SAG
wins: --

CATEGORY FRAUD ALERT. He's the title character in this drama about a young drug addict and his relationship with his father. The big question is whether or not the Academy feels residual guilt for not giving him the win for Call Me By Your Name.  

Podcast |
 More Chalamet

Michael B Jordan
31 yrs old | never nominated
BLACK PANTHER
Feb 16th

noms: Critics Choice, SAG (Ens.)
wins: San Francisco

Everyone in Hollywood loves Black Panther and he should have been nominated alread. But the lack of a Globe nom despite their embrace of Black Panther is not a promising sign.

More Jordan 

Russell Hornsby
44 yrs old | never nominated
THE HATE U GIVE
October 5th

noms: --
wins: AAFCA

He's the soul of this passionate drama about police violence and racial discrimination. A moving performance and they're still promoting the film. But other contenders have much higher profiles.

Review | Podcast 

Steve Carell
56 yrs old | 1 nomination
VICE
Dec 21st

noms: --
wins: --

 If Oscar goes as crazy for Vice as The Globes did he could be a surprise since he's memorably soulless and funny as Don Rumsfeld.

 

More Carell

Daniel Kaluuya
29 yrs old | 1 nomination
WIDOWS
Nov 16th

noms: --
wins: --

Though people loved Kaluuya for his about face menace in this film, it was a small enough role that Best Picture heat was required. That didn't happen.

 

Reviewed | Podcast 
More Kaluuya

 
Tier 3 - EXTREME Long Shots. The race has firmed up

 

Lin Manuel Miranda

38 yrs old | never nominated
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Dec 25th

nomsGlobe (Lead)
wins: --

We've long said that he's the exact kind of beloved entertainer who Oscar will embrace once they have a good opportunity. But a Globe nod for a musical is an easier get than Oscar.

Trailer | More Lin-Manuel Miranda

 

Josh Hamilton
49 yrs old | never nominated
EIGHTH GRADE
July 13th

nomsSpirit
wins: Detroit

If Oscar wasn't so resistant to teen movies and sensitive dads, rather than awful ones, he'd probably be getting a lot more attention but the Spirit nomination is a great start.

Alessandro Nivola
46 yrs old | never nominated
DISOBEDIENCE
April 27th

nomsBIFA
winsBIFA

 The BIFA win was a great and welcome surprise. Will voters actually watch the film? He's excellent in it and would be a thrilling last minute surprise. 

 

Review | Podcast 
FYC Alessandro 

Russell Crowe

54 yrs old | 3 noms | 1 win
BOY ERASED
Sept 28th

noms: --
wins: --

The Academy loves a comeback and he's quite moving in this LGBT drama as a religious father who just can't get over his son's gayness. But response to the movie has been muted.

More Crowe

Steven Yeun
34 yrs old | never nominated
BURNING
Oct 26th

noms: -- 
wins: LAFCA, Toronto

Bless the LAFCA for recognizing him. This sly sophisticated performance is the secret weapon of a great foreign film contender.

Review | Podcast More Yeun

 
Tier 4- Other Key Supporting Men

ALSO AWARDED:
Raul Castillo We the Animals  Spirit nom
Topher Grace Blackkklansman SAG (Ens.)
Hugh Grant Paddington 2  BAFTA nom (2017), Evening Standard nom (2017)
John David Washington Monsters and Men Spirit nom
Dominic West Colette  BIFA nomination

OTHER NOTABLES:
Robert Forster What They Had
JK Simmons The Front Runner
Alex Wolff Hereditary
Jason Clarke First Man
Bryan Tyree Henry If Beale Street Could Talk
Colman Domingo If Beale Street Could Talk 
Christian Slater The Wife
Jake Gyllenhaal Wildlife
Bill Camp Wildlife