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Yes No Maybe So: CREED, SECRET IN THEIR EYES, STEVE JOBS

CREED "I'm so here for Michael B. Jordan becoming a bona fide movie star. It'll just take the right project to put him in the public consciousness. Creed looks like it could be it." - Kate

STEVE JOBS "Isnt it too soon for a Jobs biopic?" - Amanda

SECRET IN THEIR EYES "I loved the original -- without the background of the Argentinian dictatorship a huge element of the plot tension gets lost. I wonder how they'll deal with that." - Felix


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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders for 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

CHART UPDATED ON JULY 1st

July Predicted Five

Tom Hardy
never nominated
The Revenant
(Fox)
Christmas

Benicio Del Toro
2 noms | 1 win
Sicario
(Lionsgate)
Sept 18th

Harvey Keitel
1 nomination
Youth
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Brendan Gleeson
never nominated
Suffragette
(Focus)
Oct 23rd 
Mark Rylance
never nominated
Bridge of Spies
(Disney)
Oct 16th
 He's a hot commodity right now, and despite rumors of tussles with Inarritu, he's a great actor and Inarritu gets great performances from them.  Early word is bananas for him from Cannes. The film's trailer has also caused a mini stir. Will people like the movie once they see it. And remember it come nomination time?  Oscar loves a co-lead role in this category and Harvey Keitel -- can you believe he has just one nomination to his name? Plus they like movies about filmmakers He's an actor's actor and this past decade of strong work in lead and supporting roles will cause a groundswell of support if he's ever in the right role in the right picture - could this villain be it? Will this be an actor's movie or more of a mainstream director's show? Rylance is brilliant but doesn't make many movies - from the trailer he has the spotlight role here
Tier 2 - Also Look Like Good Bets This (Too) Early

Kurt Russell 
never nominated
The Hateful Eight 
(Weinstein Co)
Christmas 

Seth Rogen
never nominated
Steve Jobs
(Universal)
Oct 9th
Bradley Cooper
3 noms (for acting)
Joy
(Fox)
Christmas
Samuel L Jackson
1 nomination
The Hateful Eight
(Weinstein Co)
Christmas

Jude Law
2 nominations
Genius
(Lionsgate)
TBA

 Early word from table reads and such is that Russell is "john wayne-esque" in this. And he's exactly the type of famous never-honored actor that could have a good Oscar run if the stars align.  I accidentally captioned this photo "jonah hill" at first. Ooops but same principle. Oscar loves a comic actor who gets serious in prestige films. Playing real people always helps, too He plays a Home Shopping Network executive to Jennifer Lawrence's entrepeneural single mom. How big is the role. Can magic strike thrice for David O. Russell and his muses?   It's a role said to be tailor made for him with showy monologues and such. BUT he was the absolute best part of Django Unchained and never got any traction, so who knows? If it stays true to the book about the famous editor Max Perkins, he'll have a co-lead role essentially as the troubled author Thomas Wolfe. And Jude is a great talent in need of a comeback. 
Tier 3 - or maybe ?
Bruce Dern
2 nominations
The Hateful Eight
(Weinstein Co)
Christmas

Steve Carell
1 nomination
Freeheld
(Lionsgate)
TBA

Michael Keaton
1 nomination
Spotlight
(Open Road)
Nov 5th
Sylvester Stallone
1 nom
Creed
(MGM/WB)
Nov 25th
Forest Whitaker
1 nom | 1 win
Southpaw
(Weinstein Co)
Jul 31st
 Given that, according to most reports (unless the script has changed) the film takes place mostly in one location -- it's a true ensemble piece. Who will pop up as the MVP. We won't know until we're seeing it.   He's a gay activist leader in this true story of a lesbian couple fighting for pension benefits. But how big is the role and is there any Foxcatcher afterglow?  If AMPAS feels bad that he lost for Birdman (and they should) maybe they'll invite him back for this true story as this newspaper editor of a team investigating Catholic Church child molestation scandals     Oscar has been known to love boxing movies, and they've nominated boxing mentors before. Might this one return Whitaker to the field? Or even Sly Stallone who -- trivia alert -- is exactly the same age now (69) that his mentor Burgess Meredith was when he was nominated for supporting actor for Rocky (1976)
Tier 4 - Anything is Possible This Early. Imagine the Scenarios.
Ralph Fiennes
2 nominations
A Bigger Splash
(Fox Searchlight)
TBA

Benedict Cumberbatch
1 nomination
Black Mass
(Warner Bros)
Sept 18th

David Morse
never nominated
Concussion
(Columbia)
Christmas
Len Cariou
never nominated
Spotlight
(Open Road)
Nov 5th
Tom Holland
never nominated
In the Heart of the Sea
(Warner Bros)
Dec 11th 
 As Tilda's ex lover who brings his pot-stirring daughter (Dakota Johnson) along when he visits a European couple, this could be suave sinister magic. And honestly, AMPAS owes him He plays the senator brother to Depp's mafia FBI informant lead. And it doesn't hurt that the world is in love with him right now.  It's always fun to imagine long time character actors getitng their due in the category that was initially designed to honor them. And these *might* be good role for it. Cariou is playing the cardinal covering up the catholic church scandal and Morse is one of the key former football players in the head-injury NFL drama Our new Spider-Man. Remember how great he was in The Impossible? Now he's up against the forces of wet nature again in this seafaring epic. Not that Oscar generally notices very young guys
Tier -Everyone Else.
Let's see who pops as MVP of their films
Kyle Chandler - Carol; Alan Tudyk, John Goodman, Dean O'Gorman, Michael Stuhlbarg Trumbo;Woody Harrelson, Aaron Paul, Casey Affleck - Triple 9; Michael Sheen- Far From the Madding Crowd; Rick Springfield, Sebastian Stan, Kevin Kline - Ricki & The Flash; Channing Tatum, Bruce Dern, Walton Goggins, Tim Roth, Michael Madsen, Demian Bichir - The Hateful Eight; Cillian Murphy, Brendan Gleeson- In the Heart of the Sea; Billy Magnussen, Alan Alda - Bridge of Spies; Guy Pearce, Dominic West - Genius; Hugh Jackman -Pan; David Krumholz, Bradley Whitford - I Saw the Light; Domnhall Gleeson, Will Poulter - The Revenant; Emory CohenDomnhall Gleeson - Brooklyn; Sean Harris, David Thewlis, Jack Reynor - MacBeth; Zachary Quinto, Tom Wilkinson - Snowden; Matthias Schoenaerts- A Bigger Splash; Jack O'Connell, Christoph Waltz - Tulip Fever; Joel Edgerton - Black Mass; Jon Bernthal, Josh Brolin - Sicario; Michael Shannon, Luke Grimes - Freeheld; Robert DeNiro & Edgar Ramirez - Joy; Alec Baldwin, David Morse, Eddie Marsan - Concussion; Oscar Isaac - Ex Machina; Jack O'Connell, Giancarlo Esposito, Dominic West - Money Monster; Mark Ruffalo, Stanley Tucci, Liev Schreiber, Len Cariou - Spotlight; Jack O'Connell - Money Monster; Alec Baldwin - Untitled Howard Hughes Project Jesse Plemons, Chris O'Dowd, Dustin Hoffman - The Program