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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

JUNE 1ST PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

Hmmm. dare we go with two returning nominees from last year? I guess we shall. Meanwhile Adam Driver and Jake Gyllenhaal are picking up heat for their films... and a couple of new entries to the chart below as well.

Sam Rockwell
49 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
BACKSEAT
Dec 21st

Playing George W Bush didn't work for Josh Brolin's awards prospects in "W" but that film surely arrived too soon. With more distance people might be okay revisiting this time. And Rockwell can do a victory lap if he's great in this since he just won the Oscar.

Timothée Chalamet
22 yrs old | 1 nomination
BEAUTIFUL BOY
Oct 12th

Probably a leading role but you know how Oscar do with double-leads-of-same-gender films. He's the titular character in this film based on the memoir of the father (Steve Carell) about his son's addiciton issues. But Carell might go supporting instead... you never know this early.

Adam Driver
34 yrs old | never nominated 
BLACK KLANSMAN
Aug 10th

He plays an anti-social undercover police officer working in tandem with the lead to infiltrate the Klu Klux Klan. Sounds like a co-lead role which often spells success in the supporting category (sigh).

Sam Elliott
73 yrs old | never nominated 
A STAR IS BORN
Oct 5th

He's playing the manager to both stars and word is that it's a big role and that Bradley originally wrote it  for him. Elliott has been having a mini-renaissance these past few years with regularly kind critical notices. Career achievement nod?

Jake Gyllenhaal
37 yrs old | 1 nomination
WILDLIFE
Release TBA

It would be wonderful to see him back in the nominee pool. Can Carey's heat help him (since he doesn't really campaign much himself?) Or will that be a Best Actress only vehicle? Will Sisters Brothers help?

 

Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

All of these men seem highly plausible too if distribution is good, role size is there, and critical reviews are kind. 

 

 

Russell Crowe
3 noms | 1 win
BOY ERASED
Sept 28th

It's been nearly two decades since his Oscar heyday but the Academy loves a comeback. They might especially love a supporting (i.e. humble) comeback from a notorious movie star. Plus Oscar voters love a weight gain and he put on several lbs for this.


Oscar Isaac
39 yrs old | never nominated
AT ETERNITY'S GATE
Release TBA 

He's playing the Gaugin in this film about Van Gogh's time in Aries so it's a potentially juicy 'liven the movie up' role since Gaugin arguably shook up Van Gogh's life and mental health (climaxing with the ear incident) when he stayed with him there. But will the film get the right distributor / release?

Dick Van Dyke
92 yrs old | never nominated
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Dec 25th

If the movie is wonderful if he's enjoyable and if the role is at good-sized, it's easy to imagine an 'honor the career!' scenario. Consider that he's a showbiz legend who was never Oscar nominated once in his career. He was Globe nominated for the original Mary Poppins, though.

 

Stephan James
24 yrs old | never nominated
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Release TBA

He plays the imprisoned fiancé of the pregnant lead in this drama set in Harlem of the 1970s. We suspect this film will totally belong to the pregnant fiancée but you never know.  His star is rising with Selma, Race, and multiple TV series behind him despite his young age. 

Richard E Grant
60 yrs old | never nominated
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
Oct 19th

This once-ubiquitous supporting player could have a comeback if this showy drunk "friend" role delivers. We hope if he gets attention that people discover his book "With Nails: The Film Diaries of Richard E Grant" because it is a funny treasure trove of 90s movie anecdotes.

 
Tier 3 - We might be underestimating...

Corey Stoll
42 yrs old | never nominated
FIRST MAN
Oct 12th

It would be wonderful to see this great actor in the Oscar conversation. But will the part of Buzz Aldrin be enough to get him there? Non-leads dont tend to get much attention in Damien Chazelle movies.

David Tennant 

47 years old
never nominated
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Dec 7th

He's playing noted misoygynist, anti-Catholic, and anti-Mary John Knox. This part was not major in the 1971 film as I recall but with an actor as big as Tennant, one assumes the part is bigger now. Plus Oscar likes antagonists in this category.

Michael B Jordan

31 yrs old | never nominated
BLACK PANTHER
Feb 16th

He's the most riveting thing in a movie that everybody loves... but that said, it's still a superhero movie and the only time they've ever honored a performance in one of those there were highly unusual extenuating circumstances (i.e. the actor's tragic death before the movie opened)

 

Tyler Perry 
48 yrs old | never nominated
BACKSEAT
Dec 21st

He plays Colin Powell and though people like to question his talent he was good in Gone Girl and Oscar history is full of non-prestige actors getting nominated if the right director/role comes along.

Armie Hammer
31 yrs old | never nominated
ON THE BASIS OF SEX
Release TBA

Supportive husbands are a less powerful draw than supportive wives given  Academy tastes but this marriage between two lawyers (the film is about Ruth Bader Ginsburg) was famously equal and thus ahead of its time.

 
Tier 4- Too early to rule anyone out!

J.K. Simmons

63 yrs old | 1 nom | 1 win
THE FRONT RUNNER
Release TBA 

He's playing Gary Hart's (Hugh Jackman) campaign manager in this dark political comedy about Hart's affair and subsequent career destruction. 

Riz Ahmed

35 yrs old | never nominated
THE SISTERS BROTHERS
Release TBA 

He plays the mark, a chemist on the gold rush, accused of stealing from the man who hires the assassins.

Common 

46 yrs old | never nominated *in acting*
ALL ABOUT NINA
Release TBA

He's already an Oscar winner for songwriting and eople love him in this film. If leading lady Mary Elizabeth Winstead picks up heat.

Lin-Manuel Miranda 

38 yrs old | never nominated *in acting*
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Dec 25th

He's a beloved new showbiz figure and feels like an EGOT waiting to happen. But will people love this movie?

Martin Compston

33 yrs old
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Dec 7th

This is probably a large role (Mary's third husband who killed her second) and Oscar loves dangerous men in this category

 
Tier 5 - Other Supporting Men to Enjoy in 2018

(Alphabetical Order)

Jake Gyllenhaal in The Sisters Brothers, Joe Alwyn as Robert Dudley in Mary Queen of Scots (the role played by Joseph Fiennes in Elizabeth and Walter Massie in the 1971 version of this story), Sean Astin in Gloria, Jon Bernthal as Dave Scott in First Man, Kyle Chandler as Deke Slayton in First Man (a role previously played by Chris Ellis in Apollo 13 and Scott Paulin in The Right Stuff), Dave Chappelle in A Star is BornCommon in All About NinaRicardo Darin in Everybody KnowsRobert Forster in What They Had,  Topher Grace as David Duke in Blackkklansman, Lukas Haas as Mike Collins in First Man, Kit Harington in The Death and Life of John F DonovanRutger Hauer as Commodore (the fearsome boss) in The Sisters Brothers Corey Hawkins as activist Stokely Carmichael in BlackkKlansman, Alessandro Nivola in Disobedience, Guy Pearce in Mary Queen of Scots (though we don't know who he is playing which is why he's not on the chart above), Pablo Schreiber as Jim Lovell in First Man (a role previously played by Tom Hanks in Apollo 13), Kiefer Sutherland in Where is Kyra?, Sebastian Stan in Detroyer, John Turturro in Gloria, Shea Wigham as Guss Grissom in First Man (a role previously played by Fred Ward in The Right Stuff), Ben Whishaw as Michael Banks all grown up in Mary Poppins Returns, Jack Lowden as Lord Danley (the role played by Timothy Dalton in the '71 version) in Mary Queen of Scots, Steve Carell in Backseat as Donald Rumsfeld, Joel Edgerton in Boy Erased,  Bill Camp and Ed Oxendbould in Wildlife