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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

MID JULY PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Liam Neeson
Silence
(1 nom)
TBA 

We don't know how much screentime anyone will have in this missionary epic but Neeson is the mentor of the young priests searching for him in Japan. And he's a much bigger star than he was back when he got his first nomination.

Michael Shannon
Loving
(1 nom)
Nov 4th 

He plays the photographer who is documenting the case of the Lovings (an interracial couple jailed for their marriage) so he could be the audience surrogate into the world. Plus actors love him.

 

Steve Martin
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
(never nominated | 1 honorary)
Nov 11th 

He's the charming fictional owner of the Dallas Cowboys in this story which mostly takes place on a Thanksgiving day game. It'd be so sweet to finally see him nominated.

Tom Bennett
Love & Friendship
(never nom'ed)
June 3rd 

*EARLY BIRD SPECIAL*

If Love & Friendship gets the campaign it deserves, it wouldn't take that much to remind people how special this comic performance is. We shall see.

 

Aaron Eckhart
Bleed For This
(never nom'd)
Nov 23rd 

Burgess Meredith and Sly Stallone were both nominate for playing boxing mentors and the bald look will grab attention - they like actors to go unrecognizable

 

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

 Aaron Eckhart
Sully
(never nom'd)
Sept 9th 

I can't claim confidence in this one but Eckhart has been a sturdy movie presence for years with no recognition. And two noticeable roles in one season might help him (unless both films / roles are equally strong)

Tadanobu Asano
Silence
(never nominated)
TBA 

You may remember him from Thor or Zatoichi or the Oscar nominated Mongol. He replaced Ken Watanabe as the translator travelling with the Priests. We suspect a good role but why is buzz so quiet for the film?

Timothy Spall
Denial
(never nom'ed)
Sept 30th 

He probably came close for Mr Turner and villains are popular in this category. His Holocaust denier could be showy enough to get him attention. And even if it's too big, Oscar likes Most Acting as much as Best Acting

 

Vin Diesel
Billy Lynn's Longtime Halftime Walk
(never nom'ed)
Nov 11th 

WILD CARD

The actors branch loves to be surprised by really familiar faces. His role, in flashbacks, has potential. Depends on how well he does and how much people love the film.

 

Hugh Grant
Florence Foster Jenkins
(never nom'd)
Aug 12th 

CAREER HONORS?

Getting good reviews and wouldn't it be sweet to finally see him nominated. An undervalued enduring charmbomb

- it's probably a lead role but you know how these things go.

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

Armie Hammer
Birth of a Nation
(never nom'd)
Oct 7th 

Most reviews suggest the film is heavily concentrated on Nat Turner and doesn't give its supporting cast much to do. Except for Hammer as Turner's owner 

Mykelti Williamson
Fences
(never nom'd)
Dec 16th 

While he was not Tony nominated for this role on Broadway Oscar votes may remember and love him as "Bubba" from Forrest Gump and Oscar loves a disability. (His character suffers from war injuries.)

Stephen Henderson
Fences
(never nominated)
Dec 16th 

He was Tony nominated for playing Denzel's best friend in Fences. Will reprising the role get him an Oscar nom? 

JK Simmons
La La Land
(1 nom | 1 win)
Dec 16th 

He won the Oscar for Chazelle's Whiplash. Reteaming now so will magic strike again or will this be all about the Gosling/Stone musical duet?

Warren Beatty
Rules Don't Apply
(4 noms for acting)
Nov 23rd 

Howard Hughes eccentricities helped Leo DiCaprio get nominated (The Aviator) will this more comic spin work? And if so... career acting honors?

 

Tier 4 - Other Possibilities

Alden Ehrenreich
Hail, Caesar!
(never nom'ed)
Feb 1st 

EARLY BIRD SPECIAL

The question is not worthiness -- people went nuts for this charismatic funny film-stealing turn. But whether people will remember it?

 

Jovan Adepo
Fences
(never nom'd)
Dec 16th 

Adepo (The Leftovers) is one of the only new castmembers (Fences is getting most of its Broadway cast on film) as the youngest son at odds with his father. It's a really good role but he's young for Oscar love.

 

Lucas Hedges
Manchester by the Sea
(never nom'd)
Nov 18th

 Getting great "discovery!" reviews for his turn as Casey Affleck's newly orphaned nephew in this acclaimed drama. But he's young for Oscar love

 Nick Offerman
The Founder
(never nom'd)
Dec 16th 

Will people ever see him as anything but Ron Swanson? We'll find out in this dramatic turn as one of the McDonald's brothers, at war with Michael Keaton

Craig Robinson
Morris From America
(never nom'd)
Aug 19th 

Reviews are strong for Chad Hartigan's Sundance entry and Robinson is wonderful as Morris's loving but increasingly impatient father. But will it get a significant release and be pushed for gold?

Tier 5 And who knows...?
10 Cloverfield Lane - John Goodman
Queen of Katwe - David Oyelowo
Miss Sloane - Mark Strong, Jake Lacy,
The Witch - Ralph Ineson
Beat Up Little seagull - Kiefer Sutherland
Birth of a Nation -Jackie Earle Haley
Cafe Society - Steve Carell
Captain Fantastic - George MacKay, Frank Langella
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - Garrett Hedlund, Ben Platt
Collateral Beauty - Edward Norton, Michael Peña
The Founder - John Carroll Lynch
Silence - Adam Driver
Fences - Saniyya Sidney
Story of Your Life - Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker
Alone in Berlin -Daniel Brühl
Manchester by the Sea - Kyle Chandler
Lion - David Wenham 
The Yellow Birds - Jack Huston