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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

SEPTEMBER 21st PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - Prediction

The buzz this year is almost uniformly with women of a certain age. Past winners Holly Hunter, Melissa Leo, and Octavia Spencer could dominate but expect a more career-honors style enthusiasm for a win for Janney, Metcalf, Scott Thomas, or Pfeiffer if any of them are nominated.  

Holly Hunter
59 yrs old | 38 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THE BIG SICK
June 23rd

 

She's the heart and soul of this sleeper hit as a hilariously pissed off but tremendously loving wife and mother

Allison Janney

57 yrs old | 61 films
never nominated
I, TONYA
Dec 8th

She was all the talk of TIFF after this film's premiere. A big broad nasty but hilarious evil mom role. If released well, she's nearly a sure thing.

Octavia Spencer

47 yrs old | 65 films | 2 noms | 1 win
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

Is she the Thelma Ritter of her generation? She sure is reliable at warming up a film and giving it some salt of the earth comedy, too.

Kristin Scott Thomas

57 yrs old | 61 films | 1 nomination
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

This is the quintessential "supportive wife" role ... but hey, Oscar ♥︎s those. And she brings poise and with and warmth to an otherwise masculine movie. Best Picture heat counts for a lot in supporting categories. 

Laurie Metcalf

62 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
LADY BIRD 
Nov 3rd

She's coming off a Tony win and she's got years of respect among actors. She's winning great reviews as Saoirse Ronan's mother in Greta Gerwig's directorial debut

 
Tier 2 -Potential threats to the assumed frontrunners

Melissa Leo

56 yrs old | 69 films | 2 noms | 1 win
THE NOVITIATE
Oct 27th

She's won stellar reviews for this strict nun role. But will that be enough when she's the movie's best (only?) hope for honors?

Mary J Blige
46 yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
Nov 17th

Though it's a small role in a category that likes leading ladies more than true supporting characters, reviews were kind to her. It could happen if the film is considered across the board.

Michelle Pfeiffer
59 yrs old | 43 films | 3 nominations
MOTHER!
Sept 15th

For many she's the true takeaway of Aronofsky's audacious polarizing movie. The character is juicy, she has Oscar history, and people are glad she's back. 

Hong Chau
??? yrs old | 2 films |never nominated
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

She's winning MVP reviews and the characters is memorable. She's been working a lot (Big Little Lies, Treme, and Inherent Vice) which surely puts some goodwill. But the movie is divisive and Oscar is historically reluctant about honoringAsian actors

Lesley Manville
61 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
PHANTOM THREAD
Dec 25th

 

She's a tremendous actor but what's her role like? Oscar has snubbed her before for amazing turns (Topsy Turvy, Another Year) but perhaps with DDL acting opposite her that will change?

 

 
Tier 3 - Long Shots

Michelle Williams
37 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Dec 25th

Does she have a great song? A substantial arc? Or is this just the Jackman show? And 5 nominations is quite a threshold. Can she really get there so young?

 

Catherine Keener
58 yrs old | 56 films | 2 nominations
GET OUT
Feb 24th

If the film resurges as a viable Best Picture candidate (we think it will provided the campaign is confident) she could easily be its not-actually-so surprising acting rep. Memorable and Oscar likes a villain

Juno Temple
28 yrs old | 35 films | never nominated
WONDER WHEEL
Dec 1st

She sets the plot in motion as the estranged daughter of Kate Winslet's character. Can she ride her coattails to get noticed by Oscar voters?

Julianne Moore
56 yrs old | 66 films | 5 noms | 1 win
WONDERSTRUCK
Oct 20th

Playing two roles for the director that helped shaped her initial prestige. Yes please. (Strangely the actors from this film aren't being discussed much, despite favorable reviews)

Tiffany Haddish
37 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
GIRLS TRIP
July 21st

The breakout player of a raunchy comic hit. Hey, it worked for Melissa McCarthy

 
Tier 4- Extreme Long Shots

Are They Waiting Until 2018?

  • Watson - On Chesil Beach
  • Fanning or Kidman - How to Talk to Girls at Paries

Outside Chart

  • Krieps - Phantom Thread (or is she a lead?)
  • James - Darkest Hour
  • Walters - Film Stars Don't Die...
  • Ferguson - The Snowman
  • Roberts - The Wonder
  • Coon - The Post
  • Brie - The Post
  • Dunst - The Beguiled
  • Riseborough - Battle of Sexes

Betty Gabriel
??? yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
GET OUT
Feb 24th

She deserves a big campaign but stylized performances -- even ones perfectly in service to their films need critical support and critics are often as dim as Oscar when it comes to great genre acting.

Margot Robbie
27 yrs old | 13 films | never nominated
GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
Nov 10th

While the movie has next to no heat, other tides can raise Robbie's ship if she's good (since I Tonya is also there for consumption)