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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

OCTOBER 20TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - PREDICTIONS (AKA FRONTRUNNERS)

THIS RACE IS GETTING REALLY TIGHT BUT THERE ARE ONLY FIVE SLOTS . WE SHALL SEE.  

 

Allison Janney

57 yrs old | 61 films
never nominated
I, TONYA
Dec 8th

She was all the talk of TIFF after this film's premiere. A big broad nasty but hilarious evil mom role. If released well, she's nearly a sure thing.

Holly Hunter
59 yrs old | 38 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THE BIG SICK
June 23rd

She's the heart and soul of this sleeper hit as a hilariously pissed off but tremendously loving wife and mother

Laurie Metcalf

62 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
LADY BIRD 
Nov 3rd

She's coming off a Tony win and she's got years of respect among actors. She's winning great reviews as Saoirse Ronan's mother in Greta Gerwig's directorial debut

Kristin Scott Thomas

57 yrs old | 61 films | 1 nomination
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

This is the quintessential "supportive wife" role ... but hey, Oscar ♥︎s those. And she brings poise and with and warmth to an otherwise masculine movie. Best Picture heat counts for a lot in supporting categories. 

Octavia Spencer

47 yrs old | 65 films | 2 noms | 1 win
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

Is she the Thelma Ritter of her generation? She sure is reliable at warming up a film and giving it some salt of the earth comedy, too. But is the film less of an all over threat than we thought?

 
Tier 2 -FORMIDABLE THREATS

Melissa Leo

56 yrs old | 69 films | 2 noms | 1 win
THE NOVITIATE
Oct 27th

She's won stellar reviews for this strict nun role. But will that be enough when she's the movie's best (only?) hope for honors?

Mary J Blige
46 yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
Nov 17th

Gotham Nomination

Though this category likes leading ladies more than true supporting characters, reviews have been kind to her and she's memorable in the film. It could happen if the film is considered across the board.

Michelle Pfeiffer
59 yrs old | 43 films | 3 nominations
MOTHER!
Sept 15th

For many she's the true takeaway of Aronofsky's audacious polarizing movie. The character is juicy, she has Oscar history, and people are glad she's back. That said, if they're averse to the movie even her fame won't help (since she isn't the campaigning kind)

Hong Chau
??? yrs old | 2 films |never nominated
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

She's winning MVP reviews and the characters is juicy. She's been working a lot (Big Little Lies, Treme, and Inherent Vice) which surely puts some goodwill. But the movie is divisive and Oscar is historically reluctant about honoring Asian actors

 

Miranda Richardson
59 yrs old | 52 films | 2 nominations
STRONGER
September 22nd

Accent work! Boozehoud proclivities! Monster Mom! Lots of Oscar bait to lure in voters but does the movie take her a little bit too much for granted for a solid shot at this nomination?

 
Tier 3 - LONG SHOTS

Tatiana Maslany
32 yrs old | 20 films | never nominated
STRONGER
September 22nd

Practically a lead role but since Gyllenhaal is the laser focus of her supportive but tough love girlfriend she feels supporting. Wonderful actress (see that recent Emmy win). But it's a stacked category

Lesley Manville
61 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
PHANTOM THREAD
Dec 25th

She's a tremendous actor but what's her role like? Oscar has snubbed her before for amazing turns (Topsy Turvy, Another Year) but perhaps with DDL acting opposite her that will change?

Tiffany Haddish

37 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
GIRLS TRIP
July 21st

The breakout player of a raunchy comic hit. Hey, it worked for Melissa McCarthy. But is she getting a campaign?

Catherine Keener
58 yrs old | 56 films | 2 nominations
GET OUT
Feb 24th

If the film truly resurges as a Best Picture beast she could easily be its not-actually-so surprising acting rep. Memorable and Oscar likes a villain

Cicely Tyson
92 yrs old | 23 films |
1 nomination
LAST FLAG FLYING
November 3rd

If nominated it might be the shortest performance ever to factor in.. but she is a legend and if they're feeling extra generous

 
Tier 4- Extreme Long Shots
  • Williams - Greatest Showman
  • Moore - Wonderstruck
  • Robbie - Christopher Robin
  • Krieps - Phantom Thread
  • James - Darkest Hour
  • Walters - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
  • Roberts - The Wonder
  • Coon - The Post
  • Brie - The Post
  • Dunst - The Beguiled
  • Riseborough - Battle of the Sexes
  • Silverman - Battle of the Sexes