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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

SEPT 20th POST-FESTIVAL PREDICTIONS

  

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
Post festival season this still looks like an unusually sparse year for Supporting Actress competitors. The top tier

Naomie Harris
MOONLIGHT
(never nom'd)
Oct 21st 

She tears into this complicated role of a fierce addict mom and lord knows she's put in her time as an always solid but uncelebrated actor. But the film, for all its power, isn't "easy"... will some voters dislike it?

Kristen Stewart
BILLY LYNN'S LONG...
(never nom'd)
Nov 11th 

She's the beautiful sister to Billy Lynn who doesn't want him to return to the battlefield in this satire about America's relationship with the military. She's been building critical momentum.

Michelle Williams
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(3 noms) 
Nov 18th

Though she only has a few scenes, she's reportedly a knockout dramatic presence as the ex-wife of Casey Affleck's character in this Kenneth Lonergan film about a very sad family of men

Nicole Kidman
LION
(3 noms | 1 win)
Nov 25th

 She's playing the adoptive mother of Dev Patel before he leaves home to search for his birth parents. It's a heart tugging role and she has a big scene that's getting attention

 

 

Lupita Nyong'o
QUEEN OF KATWE 
(1 nom | 1 win)
Sept 23rd

 A large supporting role as the mother of a young chess player in training for competition. Inspirational sports dramas aren't really Oscar's thing these days but people really like the film. And Lupita remains a media darling
 

 

Tier 2 - Could They Rise?

Greta Gerwig
20th CENTURY WOMEN (never nom'd)
TBA

She's playing a photographer in this fascinating sounding film about women in the 1970s from Mike Mills (Beginners) and her character has drama

Bonus Points: She's also good in Jackie though the part is backgrounded

Rooney Mara
LION
(2 nominations)
Nov 25th 

From the trailer this looks like one of those dull "supportive girlfriend/wife" roles... but the thing is Oscar does like those. If they love the movie.

Felicity Jones
A MONSTER CALLS
(1 nomination)
Dec  23rd
Reviewed 

 She's got that ghostly emotional pull as a woman dying of cancer in this fable. But will Oscar voters like the film or feel that it's kids stuff? (The film's delayed release is probably not a good sign for Jones's campaign. Genre films need more time to win over voters.)

 

Helen Mirren
COLLATERAL BEAUTY
(4 noms | 1 win)
Dec 16th 

There's not much information about the characters in this film though rumor is she's playing an actress. Should be good for a couple of showy scenes. And awards bodies love Mirren

Rachel Weisz
LIGHT BETWEEN OCEANS
(1 nom / 1 win)
Sept 2nd
Reviewed 

 Despite a typical Supporting Actress Nominee part (grieving mom who thinks her child is dead, lots of tears) the movie didn't make any waves and critics were unkind. It'll be an uphill climb for Oscar attention.

 

Tier 3 - Long Shots - Will they consider earlier films OR non-Oscar stamped actors?

Greta Gerwig
JACKIE
(never nom'd)
Dec 9th

She's constantly in the background as Jackie's most trusted friend. But she does get one showcase scene and if they go wild for the picture and also like her work in 20th Century Women...

Katey Sagal
BLEED FOR THIS
(never nom'ed)
Nov 23rd 

All the roles in this boxing drama look juicy but will they really go for a boxing drama just after stiffing Creed? Reviews don't tell the whole story with this one. With populist genres you need to know how the public receives the film, too.

Nina Arianda
FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
(never nom'ed)
Aug 12th
Reviewed 

She's great fun in this fluffy biopic... it's right in the Oscar wheelhouse but with a non-great gross, can it find new life through Globe Comedy nods? If it does will they notice how lively she is in it?

Kate Dickie
THE WITCH
(never nom'ed)
Feb 19th 
Reviewed 

 She's amazing as this tortured puritan but horror performances are tough sells with Oscar voters unless the film is a major cultural moment. (If only they would look at releases from anywhere in the calendar year and great acting from any genre)

 

Molly Shannon
OTHER PEOPLE
(never nominated)
Sept 9th

She's won fine reviews and the film has devout fans, if small amounts of them. Can they campaign this into real consideration? 

Tier 4 - With Films As Yet Unseen... Who Knows?

Lizzy Caplan
ALLIED
(never nom'd)
Nov 23rd 

She's playing sister to Brad Pitt in this WW II movie but appears to have a somewhat important role. Caplan's been rising and proved her depth as an actor with Masters of Sex

Octavia Spencer
HIDDEN FIGURES
(1 nom | 1 win)
Dec 25th

If the film is a breakout hit (certainly possible) they might want her sassy funny warmth in the mix

Rebecca Ferguson
THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN
(never nominated)
Oct 7th

If she can build off the heat from Mission Impossible the sky is the limit with this career. Will she be as memorable in this one?

 

Zoe Saldana
LIVE BY NIGHT
(never nominated)
TBA

 From the trailer she appears to have the largest female role. And is doing some sort of accent.

 

Tilda Swinton
DOCTOR STRANGE
(1 nom | 1 win)
Nov 4th

 Marvel Universe performances are far beyound their wheelhouse but it is Tilda.At the very least people will be talking.

 

 

 

Tier 5 - Vote Siphoning?

Sarah Gadon -Indignation
Chloe Sevigny - Love & Friendship
Sienna Miller - Live By Night
Keira Knightley - Collateral Beauty
Margo Martindale - The Hollars
Annette Bening - Rules Don't Apply
Laura Dern - The Founder
Margot Robbie - Suicide Squad
Tyne Daly - Hello My Name is Doris
Toni Collette - Glassland
Aja Naomi King - The Birth of a Nation
Gugu Mbatha Raw -Miss Sloane
Elle Fanning - 20th Century Women OR Live By Night  

Falling Off Chart
Isla Fisher - Nocturnal Animals
Laura Linney & Anna Gunn - Sully
Dakota Fanning - American Pastoral

Definitely or Probably 2017
Nicole Kidman - How To Talk to Girls At Parties
Jennifer Aniston - The Yellow Birds