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Lessons from the success of "It"

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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

AUGUST 31ST PREDICTIONS

FINAL PRE FESTIVAL GUESSWORK

Tier 1 - Prediction

Anything could still go in this category and much will depend on which films gain heat. The films that do seem like the likeliest contenders at this point that have already been released like Get Out, Dunkirk, Detroit, The Beguiled, or whatnot have no sure thing acting prospects. 

Holly Hunter
59 yrs old | 38 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THE BIG SICK
June 23rd

 

She's the heart and soul of this sleeper hit as a hilariously pissed off but tremendously loving wife and mother

Melissa Leo
56 yrs old | 2 noms | 1 win
THE NOVITIATE
Oct 27th

She won stellar reviews for this strict nun role. But will it get good distribution and a strong campaign? 

Kristin Scott Thomas
57 yrs old | 61 films | 1 nomination
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

We miss her. It's a prestige pic. And that 1 nomination stat has got to go, hasn't it? The trailers make this seem like a dull "supportive" wife role... but we know Oscar loves those.

Michelle Pfeiffer
59 yrs old | 43 films | 3 nominations
MOTHER!
Sept 15th

 

Though you know we'd love to predict her in full confidence truth is we know nothing about her role in this secretive movie other than she's getting her freak on in lingerie in the teaser (gulp). Trying this prediction on for size

Hong Chau
??? yrs old | 2 films |never nominated
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

The early buzz for Payne's new satire was hard to read but this role is winning MVP reviews and the characters sounds complicated and memorable. She's been working a lot (Big Little Lies, Treme, and Inherent Vice)

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Octavia Spencer
47 yrs old | 65 films | 2 noms | 1 win
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

Is she the Thelma Ritter of her generation? She sure is reliable at warming up a film and giving it some salt of the earth comedy, too.

Lesley Manville
61 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
PHANTOM THREAD
Dec 25th

 

She's a tremendous actor but what's her role like? Oscar has snubbed her for amazing turns before (Topsy Turvy, Another Year) but perhaps with DDL acting opposite her that will change?

Julianne Moore
56 yrs old | 66 films | 5 noms | 1 win
WONDERSTRUCK
Oct 20th

Playing two roles for the director that helped shaped her initial prestige. Yes please. (That said early buzz doesn't talk about the actors a lot)

Mary J Blige
46 yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
tba

Though it's a small role in a category that likes leading ladies more than true supporting characters, reviews were kind to her. It could happen if the film is strong in other categories

Michelle Williams
36 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms
ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD
Dec 8th

Does she have a great song? A substantial arc? Or is this just the Jackman show? And 5 nominations is quite a threshold. Can she really get there so young?

 

 
Tier 3 - Could be Contenders

Catherine Keener
58 yrs old | 56 films | 2 nominations
GET OUT
Feb 24th

If the film resurges as a viable Best Picture candidate (we think it will provided the campaign is confident) she could easily be its not-actually-so surprising acting rep. Memorable and Oscar likes a villain

Betty Gabriel
??? yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
GET OUT
Feb 24th

She deserves a big campaign but stylized performances -- even ones perfectly in service to their films need critical support. Will she get it?

Juno Temple
28 yrs old | 35 films | never nominated
WONDER WHEEL
Dec 1st

She sets the plot in motion as the estranged daughter of Kate Winslet's character. Can she ride her coattails to get noticed by Oscar voters?

Michelle Williams
36 yrs old | 37 films | 4 noms
THE GREATEST SHOWMAN
Dec 25th

Does she have a great song? A substantial arc? Or is this just the Jackman show? And 5 nominations is quite a threshold. Can she really get there so young?

Nicole Kidman
50 yrs old | 56 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
Nov 3rd

If Big Little Lies Kidmania is still in effect a year from now (people have a way of turning on her) she could finally nab her fifth nod

 
Tier 4- But it's too early to rule any of these out

Julianne Moore
56 yrs old | 66 films | 5 noms | 1 win
SUBURBICON
Oct 27th

She might be a comic highlight but the trailer doesn't give full confidence in the black comedy. Is it supposed to be hilarious or scary?

Tiffany Haddish
37 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
GIRLS TRIP
July 21st

The breakout player of a raunchy comic hit. Hey, it worked for Melissa McCarthy

Margot Robbie
27 yrs old | 13 films | never nominated
GOODBYE CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
Nov 10th

If the film has Best Picture heat, she's quite hot right now and could deliver. Otherwise this feels like a no go.

Andrea Riseborough
35 yrs old | 20 films | never nominated
BATTLE OF THE SEXES
Sept 22nd

Playing Emma Stone's lover in this true tennis story. Such a good actress. We hope the part is worthy of her.

 Laurie Metcalf
62 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
LADY BIRD
Nov 10th

She's coming off a Tony win and she's got years of respect among actors. Will this role as Saoirse Ronan's mother be big and meaty enough?

 
Tier 5 - This early anything is possible

Also...

  • Ferguson GREATEST SHOWMAN or THE SNOWMAN
  • Watson ON CHESIL BEACH
  • Roberts THE WONDER
  • 🔺 Coon or Brie THE PAPERS
  • Middleton or Waterston THE CURRENT WAR
  • Krieps PHANTOM THREAD
  • Dunst  THE BEGUILED 
  • Fanning or Kidman HOW TO TALK TO GIRLS AT PARTIES 
  • 🔺 Redgrave or Walters  FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
  • Buckley SPLIT 
  • Dench or Pfeiffer or Cruz or Ridley MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS 
  • Maslany STRONGER