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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog


September 30th - Predicted Five
This category is somewhat foggy... apart from the leading roles starting to crowd out the smaller supporting parts

Rooney Mara
1 nom
(Weinstein Co)
Nov 20th

Alicia Vikander
never nominated
The Danish Girl
Nov 27th

Jane Fonda
7 noms | 2 wins
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Kate Winslet
6 noms | 1 win
Steve Jobs
Oct 9th
Jennifer Jason Leigh
never nominated
The Hateful Eight
(Weinstein Co)


 Oscar has shown a willingness to look past egregious category fraud for singular gender dual-lead films. And she's terrific as the shopgirl experiencing love for the first time


 While this is definitely a two-hander (both Eddie and Alicia are the title character in their own ways) unconventional marital drama she is "supportive" and people get confused that that doesn't mean supporting.

  She's been slowly creeping back into the industry on film, stage, and television and everyone agrees that her cameo is explosive here. One scene is rarely enough but since a full half of the movie's storylines point directly at her... 

She's playing one of the founders of Apple, a woman who was famous for being able to speak her mind to Steve Jobs. She's practically unrecognizable in the trailer and people already love the film. 

If anyone can do the impossible (get JJL  her first Oscar nomination) it's Quentin Tarantino who has a habit of resuscitating careers of familiar but no longer in demand stars

Tier 2 - Other Strong Contenders

Julie Walters
2 nominations
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 6th

Elizabeth Banks
never nominated
Love & Mercy
(Roadside Attractions)
June 19th
Rachel McAdams
never nominated
Nov 6th 
Kristen Stewart
never nominated
Clouds of Sils Maria
(Sundance Selects)
April 10th
Helena Bonham Carter
2 nominations
Oct 23rd

An absolute delight as a bossy landlady in this immigrant drama. If the film goes over big in other categories, and if leading roles don't hog this category (we know that's a big "if"), expect the nomination. 

Co-lead roles often help in supporting and with the parallel storytelling Banks leads half the picture and impresses despite a very sketchily written perfect girlfriend part. Plus she's had a ridiculously big year.
Oscar history shows us time and again that one of the easiest roads to a nomination is to be the only girl in a male ensemble with Oscar power. Plus people like her and reviews say she has "sensitivity and grit"  She's already won the Cesar and abundant raves for this 'yep, she's a real actress!' revelation. If this tiny picture mounts a strong campaign for her (in this thinnish field), we could totally see this happening. No, totally. Early word suggests this will mostly be the Carey Mulligan Show (we're hearing Meryl's entire role is in the trailer) but if anyone rises with love for the film, it will surely be Brendan or Helena


Tier 3 - Dark Horses

Rachel Weisz
1 nom | 1 win
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Phylicia Rashad
never nominated
Nov 25th

Diane Ladd
3 nominations
Helen Mirren
4 noms | 1 win
(Bleeker Street)
Nov 6th
Rose Byrne
never nominated
June 5th
She is a big presence without ever leaving the supporting realm and has one killer monologue that could put her in the mix. Unfortunately for her Jane Fonda is also in the movie and gets a lot more attention from the screenplay /  leading characters. 

 She's playing the mother of Michael B Jordan and if the part isn't teeny-tiny who knows? She's such a good actress but hasn't ever had a meaty film role to compare to her stage and tv triumphs

Joy has been seen by very few people (and Russell often finishes up at the last minute) so it's unlikely that the film is locked yet. While work is leaking out the Edgar Ramirez has a great part will Ladd who is great in everything have enough to do to get thankful notices?
Hedda Hopper, the infamous Golden Age gossip columnist, could be a realy scene-stealing role for this Oscar favorite in a Hollywood blacklist drama if she has enough screentime But reviews from festivals dont suggest excitement Oh shut up. We can still pretend that Academy voters will learn to prize silly when it's genius silly. It's a blind spot for them but once in a blue moon they see it
Tier 4 - Extreme Long Shots

Everyone Else...
Will any of them "pop" in their films and/or find unexpected traction?

Laura Linney - Mr Holmes; Jessica Chastain - Crimson Peak; Parker Posey - Irrational Man; Romola Garai, Anne Marie Duff, Meryl Streep, Natalie Press -Suffragette; Emayatzy Corinealdi Miles Ahead; Gugu Mbatha-Raw - Concussion; Judy Davis - The Dressmaker; Marcia Gay Harden - Grandma; Elizabeth Olsen - I Saw the Light; Kristen Wiig - Diary of a Teenage Girl; Amy Ryan - Bridge of Spies