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Supporting Actress Smackdown 1948
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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

 

April Foolish Predicted Five
At least one and possibly all of the first three predicted women in this tier are also possibilities for Lead Actress if the campaigns deem them as such and the screentime supports it. 

Alicia Vikander
never nominated
The Danish Girl
(Focus)
Nov 27th

Ellen Page
1 nomination
Freeheld
(Lionsgate)
TBA

Elizabeth Olsen
never nominated
I Saw the Light
(SPC)
TBA

Julie Walters
2 nominations
Brooklyn
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 6th
Jennifer Jason Leigh
never nominated
The Hateful Eight
(Weinstein Co)
TBA
 The soon to be ubiquitous Swede (Ex Machina and other films) also feels like an Oscar breakout waiting to happen. Especially with this plum role as an artist whose husband transitions to a new life as a woman  With two lead films, category fraud is always a threat. But either way Ellen Page seems likely for this true LGBT story both because she's a fine actress and because she willed this project into being Oscar is a groupie for musician biopics and Olsen will be playing the musician Audrey Williams (Hank's wife). Will Hiddleston & Olsen get their own "Walk the Line" Oscar play?  She's an absolute delight as a bossy landlady in this immigrant drama. If the film goes over big in other categories, expect traction. If anyone can do the impossible (get Jennifer Jason Leigh her first Oscar nomination) it's Quentin Tarantino who has a habit of resuscitating careers of familiar but no longer in demand stars


Tier 2 - Also Look Like Good Bets This (Too) Early

Rooney Mara
1 nomination
Carol
(Weinstein Co)
TBA

Helen Mirren
4 noms | 1 win
Trumbo
(TBA)
TBA
Jessica Chastain
2 nominations
Crimson Peak
(Universal)
Oct 16th
Rachel Weisz
1 nom | 1 win
The Light Between Oceans
(TBA)
TBA
Judy Davis
2 nominations
The Dressmaker
(TBA)
TBA
 Early word suggests that Carol is very focused on Cate Blanchett so perhaps her younger girlfriend role won't be category fraud?   Hedda Hopper, the infamous Golden Age gossip columnist, could be a realy scene-stealing role for this Oscar favorite in a Hollywood blacklist drama if she has enough screentime Academy voters are sometimes immune to actorly triumphs in heightened genres like this... but Chastain's fame and obvious talent could help erode those barriers. Plus she deserved a nomination that she didn't get just last year  Derek Cianfrance's movies (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines) have been very actor-friendly. Will she have enough to do here in this marital drama (since she isn't one of the spouses)    If she's great (and when isn't she?) and has a large enough role as the mother to the vengeful heroine (Kate Winslet) could there be an Oscar comeback in store? We can dream.

 

Tier 3 - or maybe

Kristen Stewart
never nominated
Clouds of Sils Maria
(Sundance Selects)
April 10th

Parker Posey
never nominated
Irrational Man
(SPC)
July 24th

Kate Winslet
6 noms | 1 win
Steve Jobs
(Universal)
Oct 9th
Meryl Streep
19 noms | 3 wins
Suffragette
(Focus)
Oct 23rd
Helena Bonham Carter
2 nominations
Suffragette
(Focus)
Oct 23rd
 She's already won the Cesar and abundant raves for this 'yep, she's a real actress!' revelation. But can this tiny picture actually mount a successful Oscar campaign almost a year from now?  The trailer was underwhelming but Woody Allen has a great track record with the supporting actress category and how sweet a comeback would be for this inimitable actress  She's playing one of the founders of Apple, a woman who was famous for being able to speak her mind to Steve Jobs. If the movie is good enough...  Suffragette, about the brutal early battle for voting rights for women will be an actressy affair. We know that Streep has a small but key role as an activist legend and Helena is playing another key activist who created the Suffragette Doll. But with this film it's tough to know who will be declared MVP among the supporting players. There are plenty of possibilities less famous than these two. 
Tier 4 - Too Early to Discount Anyone
Laura Linney - Mr Holmes; Judi Dench - Tulip Fever; Amber Heard - The Danish Girl;  Romola Garai, Anne-Marie Duff, Natalie Press -Suffragette; Elisabeth Röhm - Joy; Rachel McAdams - Spotlight;  Annette Bening - Untitled Howard Hughes; Kirsten Dunst - Midnight Special; Olivia Cooke - Me and Earl and the Dying Girl; Rose Byrne Spy; Mamie Gummer  Ricki & The Flash; Cate Blanchett Cinderella; Dakota Fanning, Julianne Nicholson Black Mass; Julia Roberts, Caitriona Balfe -Money Monster; Nicole Kidman, Laura Linney - Genius; Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman - The Secret in Their Eyes; Elisabeth Moss - Truth; Juno Temple Far From Madding Crowd; Dakota Johnson A Bigger Splash;  Sarah Snook - Steve Jobs; Emayatzy CorinealdiMiles Ahead; Melissa Leo, Shailene Woodley - Snowden; Emma Stone, Rachel McAdams - Aloha; Sarah Paulson - Carol; Gugu Mbatha-Raw - Concussion