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100 Best of the 21st Century?

"Carol >>>>>>>>>> most of these movies" - Clarence

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

MID JULY PREDICTIONS

  

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
Will these change abruptly come festival season - it seems likely as information is limited on supporting players until you're watching the movies. Right now it feels as if there are a dearth of supporting female characters in 2016. But that can't be right.

Rachel Weisz
The Light Between the Oceans
(1 nom / 1 win)
Sept 2nd 

She's the only actress this year that seems to have a sure bet "Baity" part at this point in the year (i.e. way too early) as a woman who thinks another couple are raising her child.

Kristen Stewart
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
(never nom'd)
Nov 11th 

She's the beautiful sister to Billy Lynn who doesn't want him to return to the battlefield in this satire about America's relationship with the military

Naomie Harris
Moonlight
(never nom'd)
Oct 21st 

*WILD CARD*

Buzz is that she tears into this role of a fierce mom and lord knows she's put in her time as an always solid but uncelebrated actor But will the film catch their eye?

Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
(3 noms) 
Nov 18th

Though she only has a few scenes, she's reportedly a knockout dramatic presence as the ex-wife of Casey Affleck's character in this Kenneth Lonergan film about a very sad family of men

Helen Mirren
Collateral Beauty (4 noms | 1 win)
Dec 16th 

There's not much information about the characters in this film though rumor is she's playing an actress. Should be good for a couple of showy scenes. And awards bodies love Mirren

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Nicole Kidman
Lion
(3 noms | 1 win)
Nov 25th 

*WISHFUL THINKING?*

She's playing the adoptive mother of Dev Patel before he leaves home to search for his birth parents. Could have heart tugging scenes and she deserves an audience friendly part

Keira Knightley
Collateral Beauty
(2 noms)
Dec 16th 

All plot descriptions suggest the entire movie is focused on the man (Will Smith) but we know this is the largest female role (originally Rooney Mara was cast before Keira stepped in)

Elle Fanning
20th Century Women (never nom'd)
TBA 

She's the "provocative" teenage friend to Bening's son in this family drama. And How To Talk to Girls at Parties should also boost her odds this year. But is the Academy as interested in her as the media seems to be?

Lupita Nyong'o
Queen of Katwe
(1 nom | 1 win)
Sept 23rd 

This looks like a large supporting role as the mother of a young chess player in training for competition. Inspirational sports dramas aren't really Oscar's thing these days but if it's good enough...

Margot Robbie
Suicide Squad
(never nom'ed)
Aug 5th 

*WILD CARD* 

Only one actor has ever been nominated for superhero work and there were extenuating circumstances. But she's having a huge year which could negate some of the genre bias.

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe?

Greta Gerwig
20th Century Women (never nom'd)
TBA 

She's playing a punk photographer in this fascinating sounding film about women in the 1970s from Mike Mills (Beginners)

Katey Sagal
Bleed For This
(never nom'ed)
Nov 23rd 

All the roles in this boxing drama look juicy but will they really go for a boxing drama just after stiffing Creed?

Tilda Swinton
Doctor Strange
(1 nom | 1 win)
Nov 4th 

Marvel Universe performances are far beyound their wheelhouse but it is Tilda.At the very least people will be talking.

Kate Dickie
The Witch
(never nom'ed)
Feb 19th 

 She's amazing as this tortured puritam but horror performances are tough sells with Oscars unless the film is a major cultural moment.

Isla Fisher
Nocturnal Animals
(never nom'd)
Dec 9th 

In the book within the movie -- at least if this follows the book the movie is adapted from (confusing!) she'll be playing Jake Gyllenhaal's wife whilst looking a bit like the lead Amy Adams

Tier 4 - But What About...

Lizzy Caplan
Allied (never nom'd)
Nov 23rd 

She's playing sister to Brad Pitt in this WW II movie but appears to have a somewhat important role. Caplan's been rising and proved her depth as an actor with Masters of Sex

Chloe Sevigny
Love & Friendship
(1 nomination)
June 3rd 

If it gets a big awards push, might she be taken along for the ride? She's quite a red carpet presence

Laura Linney
Sully
(3 noms)
Sept 9th 

Because Oscar or at least filmmakers have yet to tire of putting great actresses in limited concerned / sounding board wife roles

Laura Dern
The Founder 
(2 noms)
Dec 16th 

Because Oscar or at least filmmakers have yet to tire of putting great actresses in limited concerned / sounding board wife roles

Anna Gunn
Sully
(never nom'ed)
Sept 9th 

Breaking Bad mania is sure to extend to most projects by its cast thereafter. But is her role barely there? In the trailer she merely sits at tables

 

Tier 5 - At this point who knows?

Suicide Squad - Viola Davis
United Kingdom - Laura Carmichael, Charlotte Hope
Hello My Name is Doris - Tyne Daly
Glassland - Toni Collette
Collateral Beauty - Kate Winslet, Naomie Harris
Lion - Rooney Mara
Girl on the Train - Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett
The Birth of a Nation - Penelope Ann Miller, Gabrielle Union, Aja Naomi King
Miss Sloane - Gugu Mbatha Raw
How To Talk to Girls at Parties - Nicole Kidman
The Yellow Birds - Jennifer Aniston