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JANE is the doc frontrunner

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90th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2017 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

NOVEMBER 25TH PREDICTIONS

Tier 1 - PREDICTIONS (AKA FRONTRUNNERS)

THIS RACE IS GETTING REALLY TIGHT BUT THERE ARE ONLY FIVE SLOTS . WE SHALL SEE.  

 

Allison Janney

57 yrs old | 61 films
never nominated
I, TONYA
Dec 8th

Spirit Nom | Globe Nom | Critics Choice Nom SAG Nom

She was all the talk of TIFF after this film's premiere. A big broad nasty but hilarious evil mom role. Even with a teensy release until the nomination, she feels like a sure thing.

 

Laurie Metcalf

62 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
LADY BIRD 
Nov 3rd

Spirit Nom | NBR Win | LAFCA Win  | Globe Nom | Critics Choice Nom SAG Nom

She's coming off a Tony win and she's got years of respect among actors. The reviews are great for her star turn as Saoirse Ronan's mother in Greta Gerwig's directorial debut and in some ways it's nearly a co-lead.

Holly Hunter
59 yrs old | 38 films | 4 noms | 1 win
THE BIG SICK
June 23rd

Spirit Nom  | Critics Choice Nom SAG Nom

She's the heart and soul of this sleeper hit as a hilariously pissed off but tremendously loving wife and mother.

The big question is whether the early release might hinder her. You never know when they'll be forgetful.

Mary J Blige
46 yrs old | 5 films | never nominated
MUDBOUND
Nov 17th

Gotham Nom | Spirit Ensemble Winner  | | Globe Nom Critics Choice Nom SAG Nom

Though this category likes leading ladies more than true supporting characters, reviews have been kind to her and she's memorable in the film. It could happen if the campaign keeps pushing her forward as the face of the film.

Octavia Spencer

47 yrs old | 65 films | 2 noms | 1 win
SHAPE OF WATER
Dec 8th

 Globe Nom | Critics Choice Nom

Is she the Thelma Ritter of her generation? She sure is reliable at warming up a film and giving it some salt of the earth comedy, too.

But is the film less of an all over threat than we thought? She's probably on the bordeline whether or not the film does well.

 
Tier 2 -FORMIDABLE THREATS

Melissa Leo

56 yrs old | 69 films | 2 noms | 1 win
THE NOVITIATE
Oct 27th

She's won stellar reviews for this strict nun role. But will that be enough when she's the movie's best (only?) hope for honors?

We shall see.

Kristin Scott Thomas

57 yrs old | 61 films | 1 nomination
DARKEST HOUR
Nov 24th

This is the quintessential "supportive wife" role ... but hey, Oscar ♥︎s those. And she brings poise and with and warmth to an otherwise masculine movie. Best Picture heat counts for a lot in supporting categories... but does Darkest Hour have it?

Tiffany Haddish

37 yrs old | 12 films | never nominated
GIRLS TRIP
July 21st

NYFCC Win  | Critics Choice Nom  | Critics Choice Nom (also Comedy)

The breakout player of a raunchy comic hit. Hey, it worked for Melissa McCarthy. But will the Academy take this film seriously enough? The Globes or SAG are necessary.

Michelle Pfeiffer
59 yrs old | 43 films | 3 nominations
MOTHER!
Sept 15th

For many she's the true takeaway of Aronofsky's audacious polarizing movie. The character is juicy, she has Oscar history, and people are glad she's back. That said, if they're averse to the movie even her legend won't help (since she isn't the campaigning kind)

Lois Smith
87 yrs old | 49 films | never nominated
MARJORIE PRIME
Aug 18th

Gotham nomination

Reprising a role that won her kudos on stage Smith has won some of the most attention she's ever had for her long and wonderful character actress career. She's been working the campaign circuit. Can she be a surprise nominee for a little indie?

 

 
Tier 3 - LONG SHOTS

Julia Roberts
50 yrs old | 44 films | 4 noms | 1 win
WONDER
Nov 17th

She's got her biggest hit in years and years with this movie. While it doesn't scream "prestige project" stranger things have happened than sudden traction for movie legends

Hong Chau
??? yrs old | 2 films |never nominated
DOWNSIZING
Dec 22nd

Globe Nom | Critics Choice Nom SAG Nom

She's winning MVP reviews and the characters is juicy. She's been working a lot (Big Little Lies, Treme, and Inherent Vice) which surely puts some goodwill.

But the movie is divisive and Oscar is sadly historically reluctant about honoring Asian actors

Julie Walters
67 yrs old | 42 films | 2 nominations

FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL
Dec 29th

BIFA Nom

She's engaging as the harried mother, more doting mom to her movie star guest than her children. Plus Billy Elliott reunion!

Lesley Manville
61 yrs old | 27 films | never nominated
PHANTOM THREAD
Dec 25th

She's a tremendous actor but what's her role like? Oscar has snubbed her before for amazing turns (Topsy Turvy, Another Year) but perhaps with DDL acting opposite her that will change?

Miranda Richardson
59 yrs old | 52 films | 2 nominations
STRONGER 
September 22nd

Accent work! Boozehoud proclivities! Monster Mom! Lots of Oscar bait to lure in voters but does the movie take her a little bit too much for granted for a solid shot at this nomination?

 
Tier 4- Extreme Long Shots
  • Walters - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
  • Roberts - The Wonder
  • Dunst - The Beguiled
  • Riseborough - Battle of the Sexes
  • Keener - Get Out
  • Tyson - Last Flag Flying
  • Tatiana Maslany - Stronger
  • Zoe Kazan -the Big Sick  | Critics Choice Nom (comedy only)