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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog


December 1st - Predicted Five
This category is still wildly in flux with Category Fraud resistance at an unusual high and the actual supporting performances of the year weirdly undiscussed. Feels like something strange could well happen.

Alicia Vikander
never nominated
The Danish Girl
Nov 27th

Kate Winslet
6 noms | 1 win
Steve Jobs
Oct 9th

Jane Fonda
7 noms | 2 wins
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Joan Allen
3 nominations 
Elizabeth Banks
never nominated
Love & Mercy
(Roadside Attractions)
June 19th


BIFA Nominee (Lead)

While this is definitely a two-hander marital drama (They're both the title girl in their own ways) she is "supportive" and people get confused that that doesn't mean supporting. She could win since she had a stellar year

She's playing one of the founders of Apple, a woman who was famous for being able to speak her mind to Steve Jobs. She's practically unrecognizable  and aside from a dodgy accent she's just aces in the role. Welcome back.

She's been slowly creeping back into the industry on film, stage, and television and everyone agrees that her work is explosive. One scene is rarely enough but since a full half of the movie's storylines point directly at her... 

   She doesn't have much of a spotlight in the movie as a woman who wants to help her daughter and grandsson reemerge into the world after a trauma BUT she's been greatly missed onscreen and people really do love the movie.

Arguable co-lead roles often help in supporting and w/ the parallel storytelling Banks leads half the picture and impresses despite a very sketchily written perfect girlfriend part. Plus she's had a ridiculously big year and heat for Dano could help her.

Tier 2 - Other Strong Contenders

Rooney Mara
1 nom
(Weinstein Co)
Nov 20th

Rachel McAdams
never nominated
Nov 6th 
Julie Walters
2 nominations
(Fox Searchlight)
Nov 6th
Isabella Rossellini
never nominated
Dec 25th
Mya Taylor
never nominated
July 10th



Though Oscar has shown a willingness to look past egregious category fraud for singular gender dual-lead films in the past there's some resistance this year. Could she be shut out?

Also on Leading Chart


Oscar history shows us time and again that one of the easiest roads to a nomination is to be the only girl in a male ensemble with Oscar power. Plus people like her and reviews say she has "sensitivity and grit"

Still...the excitement is clearly around the men so maybe not.

BIFA Nominee

An absolute delight as a bossy landlady in this immigrant drama. If the film goes over big in other categories, and if leading roles don't hog this category (we know that's a big "if"), expect the nomination.

 As is typical of Russell films there are a ton of fun parts the actors are clearly devouring with hungry glee. Isabella is weird and memorable and wouldn't it be cool to see her nominated for her mom's Centennial year? She should really campaign with gusto since the year is still in flux.


GOTHAM WINNER (Breakthrough)

She's easy to root for as the first trans actress ever given an Oscar campaign (and Gothams and Spirits responded) but there's no way this story of two best friend prostitutes on Christmas eve isn't a two-hander


Tier 3 - Dark Horses

Rachel Weisz
1 nom | 1 win
(Fox Searchlight)
Dec 4th

Kristen Stewart
never nominated
Clouds of Sils Maria
(Sundance Selects)
April 10th

Jennifer Jason Leigh 
never nominated
The Hateful Eight 
(Weinstein Co) 
Cynthia Nixon
never nominated
James White
(Film Arcade)
Nov 13th
Diane Ladd
3 nominations
She is a big presence without ever leaving the supporting realm and has one killer monologue that could put her in the mix. Unfortunately for her Jane Fonda is also in the movie and gets a lot more attention from the screenplay.

She's already won the Cesar and abundant raves for this 'yep, she's a real actress!' revelation. But the tiny picture didn't put up much of a fight for year end attention so unless critics awards revive her

 If anyone can do the impossible (get JJL  her first Oscar nomination) it's Quentin Tarantino who has a habit of resuscitating careers of familiar but no longer in demand stars It's easy to imagine her winning #1 votes on ballots of members who've seen the movie. It's hard to imagine her winning enough of them since the movie has such a low profile.
She narrates Joy with steadfast hard-won optimism and warmth... but she doesn't have much to do within the movie. She'd need tremendous Best Picture heat to pull her up.
Tier 4 - Extreme Long Shots

Everyone Else...
Will any of them "pop" in their films and/or find unexpected traction?

Helen Mirren - Trumbo; Sarah Paulson - Carol; Rose Byrne - Spy; Laura Linney - Mr Holmes; Jessica Chastain - Crimson Peak; Parker Posey - Irrational Man; Romola Garai, Helena Bonham Carter BIFA Nominee Anne Marie Duff BIFA Nominee; Gugu Mbatha-Raw - Concussion; Marcia Gay Harden - Grandma; Kristen Wiig - Diary of a Teenage Girl;Phylicia Rashad & Tessa Thompson - Creed