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"All I know is that if I had worked on A Monster Calls, I'd be pretty pissed that I didn't get in but Sully did." -The Jack

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

December 4th Predictions

  

Tier 1 - Predicted 5. Looking Like a Settled in Shortlist unless the precursors start shaking it up...

Viola Davis
FENCES
(2 noms)
Dec 25th

First Impression 

CATEGORY FRAUD

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom 

The Academy owes her a statue and we're impatient. She won the Tony for this same role when it was designated leading. Despite reports that her role has been beefed up for the movie version, she's campaigning supporting. Category Fraud? We won't know till we see it.

Michelle Williams
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
(3 noms) 
Nov 18th
Reviewed

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom, NYFCC Winner

Though she only has a few scenes, she's reportedly a knockout dramatic presence as the ex-wife of Casey Affleck's character in this Kenneth Lonergan film about a very sad family of men

 

Naomie Harris
MOONLIGHT
(never nom'd)
Oct 21st 
Reviewed 

Prizes
NBR Winner,
Gotham Ensemble Prize, Critics Choice Nom

She tears into this complicated role of a fierce addict mom and lord knows she's put in her time as an always solid but uncelebrated actor. But the film, for all its power, isn't "easy"... will some voters dislike it?

Nicole Kidman
LION
(3 noms | 1 win)
Nov 25th
Reviewed

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

 

 She's playing the adoptive mother of Dev Patel before he leaves home to search for his birth parents. It's a heart tugging role and she has a big scene that's getting attention

Greta Gerwig
20th CENTURY WOMEN (never nom'd)
Dec 25th
Reviewed

Prizes
Critics Choice Nom

She's playing a photographer in this wonderful film about women in the 1970s from Mike Mills (Beginners) and her character has drama

Bonus Points: She's also good in Jackie though the part is backgrounded

 

 

Tier 2 - Could They Surprise?

Molly Shannon
OTHER PEOPLE
(never nominated)
Sept 9th
Reviewed 

Prizes
Spirit Nom

She's won fine reviews for a lovely film which has devout fans, if small amounts of them. Can they campaign this into real consideration? Or will she have to settle for Emmy attention for Divorce?

Octavia Spencer
HIDDEN FIGURES
(1 nom | 1 win)
Dec 25th

Prizes
NBR Ensemble prize 

If the film is a breakout hit (certainly possible) they might want her sassy funny warmth in the mix. She couldn't be any more endearing in the film and has one of its sharpest moments opposite Kirsten Dunst

Janelle Monae
HIDDEN FIGURES
(never nominated)
Dec 25th

Prizes
NBR Ensemble prize , Critics Choice Nom

If the film is a breakout hit (certainly possible) and they're feeling frisky and want this musician turned actor (she's also good in Moonlight) in the mix...

Lily Gladstone
CERTAIN WOMEN
(never nominated)
October 14th

Prizes
 Spirit Nom, LAFCA Winner

 Everyone who sees this indie loves her work. But will enough of them see it? The LAFCA win certainly brings the small film more attention. 

 

Felicity Jones
A MONSTER CALLS
(1 nomination)
Dec  23rd
Reviewed 

Prizes
tba 

 She's got that ghostly emotional pull as a woman dying of cancer in this fable. But will Oscar voters like the film or feel that it's kids stuff? (The film's push to december hurt its buzz)

 

Tier 3 -Long Shots

 

Gugu Mbatha-Raw
MISS SLOANE
(never nom'ed)
Dec 2nd  

Prizes
tba 

She's got the film's other key female role and proves again that she should be moving up all of Hollywood's casting lists. But whether or not the film wins good reviews is very much a tossup.

Tilda Swinton
DOCTOR STRANGE
(1 nom | 1 win)
Nov 4th
Reviewed

Prizes
Critics Choice (Action) Nom 

 Marvel Universe performances are far beyound their wheelhouse but it is Tilda. And people are already talking about her turn in the movie.

Helen Mirren - Eye in the Sky
Lupita Nyong'o
- Queen of Katwe
Rachel Weisz -
Light btwn Oceans
Elle Fanning - 20th Century
Paulina Garcia - Little Men Spirit Nom
Nina Arianda - Florence Foster Jenkins
Kate Dickie - The Witch
Riley Keough - American Honey Spirit Nom