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Podcast - 1996 Cannes Competition Revisit

"Never forget Madonna (!!) beating Frances McDormand for the Golden Globe that year" - David

 "Watson/McDormand/Blethyn? I couldn't even choose. All so perfect - my favorite kind of Oscar category." -Mike

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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

APRIL FOOLISH PREDICTIONS

 

BEFORE THE PREDICTIONS - A REMINDER FOR THE CONSCIENTOUS VOTER
The conscientous movie lover, critic, or Academy member doesn't wait until the end of the year to draw up best lists. They consider their options early and often. The following are not endorsements per se just supporting actresses who've already been seen and praised this year. See their films, draw your own conclusions. 
Toni Collette
Glassland
(1 nom)
Emayatzy Corinealdi
Miles Ahead
(never nom'ed)
Tyne Daly
Hello My Name is Doris
(never nom'ed)
Kate Dickie
The Witch
(never nom'ed)
Maryann Plunkett
The Family Fang
(never nom'ed)
Conscientous voters shouldn't wait for screeners. Get movie-watching now!
 

 

Tier 1 - Predicted 5
We're mostly flying blind in this category this early (no obvious choices beyond Weisz) due to limited information about supporting characters. I personally suspect some of the nominees to come we don't even of their existence yet. Perhaps we'll get a new star or some festival pickups.

Rachel Weisz
The Light Between the Oceans (1 nom / 1 win)

She's the only actress this year that seems to have a sure bet "Baity" part at this point in the year (i.e. way too early) as a woman who thinks another couple are raising her child.

Kristen Stewart
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (never nom'd)

She's the beautiful sister to Billy Lynn who doesn't want him to return to the battlefield in this satire about America's relationship with the military

Helen Mirren
Collateral Beauty (4 noms | 1 win)

There's not much information about the characters in this film though rumor is she's playing an actress. Should be good for a couple of showy scenes. And awards bodies love Mirren

Michelle Williams
Manchester by the Sea
(3 noms) 

Though she only has a few scenes, she's reportedly a knockout dramatic presence as the ex-wife of Casey Affleck's character in this Kenneth Lonergan film about a very sad family of men

Elle Fanning
20th Century Women (never nom'd)

*WILD CARD*

She's the "provocative" teenage friend to Bening's son in this family drama. And How To Talk to Girls at Parties should also boost her odds this year. But is the Academy as interested in her as the media seems to be?

 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Greta Gerwig
20th Century Women (never nom'd)

She's playing a punk photographer in this fascinating sounding film about women in the 1970s from Mike Mills (Beginners)

Keira Knightley
Collateral Beauty (2 noms)

All plot descriptions suggest the entire movie is focused on the man (Will Smith) but we know this is the largest female role (originally Rooney Mara was cast before Keira stepped in)

Nicole Kidman
Lion (3 noms | 1 win)

*WISHFUL THINKING?*

She's playing the adoptive mother of Dev Patel before he leaves home to search for his birth parents. Could have heart tugging scenes and she deserves an audience friendly part

Lupita Nyong'o
Queen of Katwe (1 nom | 1 win)

General premise suggests this is a large supporting role as she's the mother of a young chess player in training for competition. But inspirational sports dramas aren't really Oscar's thing these days

Margot Robbie
Suicide Squad (never nom'ed)

*WILD CARD* 

Only one actor has ever been nominated for superhero work but she's going to have a huge year altogether so one suspects she'll be pushed hard regardless

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe?

Isla Fisher
Nocturnal Animals (never nom'd)

In the book within the movie -- at least if this follows the book the movie is adapted from (confusing!) she'll be playing Jake Gyllenhaal's wife whilst looking a bit like the lead Amy Adams

Lizzy Caplan
Allied (never nom'd)

She's playing sister to Brad Pitt in this WW II movie but appears to have a somewhat important role. Caplan's been rising and proved her depth as an actor with Masters of Sex

Anna Gunn
Sully
(never nom'd)

Breaking Bad mania is sure to extend to most projects by its cast thereafter. But is her role as a doctor in this film important or barely there?

Laura Dern
The Founder 
(2 noms)

Because Oscar or at least filmmakers have yet to tire of putting great actresses in limited concerned / sounding board wife roles

Laura Linney
Sully
(3 noms)

Because Oscar or at least filmmakers have yet to tire of putting great actresses in limited concerned / sounding board wife roles

 

Tier 4 - Other Ensemble Members

Doctor Strange - Tilda Swinton
United Kingdom - Laura Carmichael, Charlotte Hope
Collateral Beauty - Kate Winslet, Naomie Harris
Lion - Rooney Mara
Girl on the Train - Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett
The Birth of a Nation - Penelope Ann Miller, Gabrielle Union, Aja Naomi King
How To Talk to Girls at Parties - Nicole Kidman
The Yellow Birds - Jennifer Aniston