The countdown is progressing. Today's Topic: Golden Globe Predictions. (We'll be live-blogging starting with the arrivals 'round about 6:30 PMish EST)
So without further ado. Some predictions. We're predicting them in the order with which they appear on the Golden Globe site so as to save typing time!
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Win: I think it's going to be The Social Network but the Globes are hard to predict since they aren't always that worried about what Oscar might pick (yay! -- votes ≠ predictions. Or shouldn't). So I suppose we could see an upset from The King's Speech or even The Fighter?
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Halle Berry – Frankie and Alice
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Should Win: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (there, I said it).
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. She's just the kind of star people like to throw gold at. This will even be her second Globe since she was the surprise winner for Closer (2004). Plus, she's just terrific in her movie and being terrific in your movie never hurts (though it doesn't always help) come awards season.
Unrelated Gripe: Can I say again how IRRITATING it is that the makeup for this movie is not winning awards? It's even fun to draw or to torment your kids with at home.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King's Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
Should Win: I'm all about the youngish leading men this year so I'd be thrilled if this was a surprise and went to Eisenberg or Gosling. Or even Franco which would be just like the Globes except that...
Will Win: Colin Firth in The King's Speech is a Helen Mirren The Queen style lock for everything. Royalty Porn forever with awards groups, you know? Which is why his BFCA speech about it being a real competition was silly. Everyone knows it's not a competition during some years.
'Best' Motion Picture Other Than Drama Because We Are Silly And Didn't Even Try To Look At Comedies This Year Even Though There Were Plenty of Good Ones
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The Kids Are All Right
Red
The Tourist
Will Win/Should Win: The Kids Are All Right should have in the bag unless the Globes total freakout in the nomination portion of this season and in this category indicates that they're off their meds in which case they'll choose their worst winner of all time. I dare not even type it...
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway – Love & Other Drugs
Angelina Jolie – The Tourist
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right
Emma Stone – Easy A
Should Win: In the traditional sense of "Comedy" --which this category rarely focuses on -- I think Emma Stone is an entirely deserving winner here. But since The Bening is here... (even though it's more of a dramatic performance than a comedic one (within a dramedy) The Bening!
Will Win: Annette Bening.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
Johnny Depp – Alice in Wonderland
Johnny Depp – The Tourist
Paul Giamatti – Barney's Version
Jake Gyllenhaal - Love & Other Drugs
Kevin Spacey - Casino Jack
Will Win: Tough to say actually.It might be double-dipping Depp (who the Globes love -- 10 nominations -- but rarely award: only one win). It might be Giamatti (if they're suddenly serious about the category). It might be Spacey (if he's been shaking hands, thought TRIVIA ALERT: He's never won a Globe. Not even for American Beauty). I predicted Depp for the Gold Derby polling of pundits but at the last second I'm guessing Spacey or Gyllenhaal. And going with (gulp) Gyllenhaal. Am I crazy? I'm doing it just because WHO THE HELL KNOWS.
I'm Dying to Know: Who do YOU think will win? Am I right that any win (other than Depp-Tourist) seems plausible?
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King's Speech
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
I'm So Proud of Them: This is the only supporting category anywhere (and maybe even for several years) in which every nominee is actually acting within a truthfully bonafide traditional "supporting" role.
Should Win: Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom (my interview)
Will Win: This category is where the Globes, rather like Oscar, are willing to surprise and vote with their heart or their star-lust. The momentum is with Leo after her BFCA win but I'm guessing Amy Adams.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Huge Supporting or Co-Lead Role in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Michael Douglas – Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Geoffrey Rush – The King's Speech
Should/Will Win: Christian Bale for The Fighter. But IF Bale is going to lose anywhere it's going to be here and to Michael Douglas. But I still think it's going to be Bale.
Best Animated Feature Film
Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon -my affection 'splained here.
Will Win: Toy Story 3. But that's awesome too so yay!
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful (Mexico, Spain)
The Concert (France)
The Edge (Russia)
I Am Love (Italy)
In A Better World (Denmark)
Should/Will Win: I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that it'll be I Am Love picking up its only major prize of the season. (But my head says this is silly and I shoulda predicted Biutiful on account of the upcoming Oscars.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan – Inception
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Should/Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
But... I'ma be pissed if David O. Russell (The Fighter) doesn't convert this nom to an Oscar nomination. None of these 5 men did more to elevate what they started out with in terms of concept and material.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko - The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler - The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Should/Will Win: The Social Network. Since they only have one screenplay category (unlike the Oscars) this is where The King's Speech can't win... even if it surpries to win Best Picture.
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Alexandre Desplat - The King's Speech
Danny Elfman - Alice in Wonderland
A. R. Rahman - 127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - The Social Network
Hans Zimmer - Inception
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Win: I'm guessing The King's Speech for some reason. But maybe it'll be Inception?
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
"Bound To You" – Burlesque
"Coming Home" – Country Strong
"I See The Light" – Tangled
"There's A Place For Us" – The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Voyage Of The Dawn Treader
"You Haven't Seen The Last Of Me" – Burlesque
Will Win: "You Haven't Seen The Last of Me"... I think. Though I don't get why they have this category since there's no musical performances during the show itself.
YOUR PREDICTIONS??? Do you want to hang out on any particular limb?