Giant all caps disclaimer coming at'cha: I AM NOT A TELEVISION PUNDIT. I have never claimed to know what I'm doing with predicting Emmys though occassionally I try. I watch way more TV than I did a decade ago mostly due to the invention of the DVR and also probably because TV got more cinematic and thus better. I am not a TV pundit but I like to watch and you know I like to opine. It's an action verb.
Herewith my poorly informed predictions regarding Sunday nights award's. Plus a few comments and trivia notes.
DRAMA
The Nominees: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, House of Cards, and Mad Men
I'm Rooting For: Mad Men. Always. It's literally the only show I've ever watched as it aired that I'd hand the best series prize to for each and every one of its seasons (thus far). For example: I love Buffy the Vampire Slayer like life but I would've handed the top prize to a couple of different things and different times during its 7 year run.
Prediction: Given Emmy's prospensity/habit to repeat winners, you have to consider Homeland a threat for a second consecutive win even though you'd be hard pressed to find one person alive who thinks the second season measures up to the first. Downward sloping quality both true (Downton Abbey) and perceived (Mad Men isn't as "enjoyable" as it once was but it's still challenging meaty triumphant television) rules them out as well. Which leaves us with House of Cards and Game of Thrones and Breaking Bad, the latter of which I think is winning the internet the Emmy for the first time.
comedy series and 8 acting categories after the jump...
COMEDY
The Nominees: 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory, Girls, Louie, Modern Family, and Veep
I'm Rooting For: 30 Rock for its swan song... though I'd be rooting much harder for it if it hadn't been so amply rewarded already in past years.
Prediction: As long as Modern Family doesn't take the prize for a fourth year, we're good. It's but a shadow of its former self. Because it's had such a stranglehold on this category it's difficult to guess what might happen this year though: TBBT has the ratings, Girls & Louie have the 'of the moment' creativity, Veep and 30 Rock have big laughs; so I'm predicting that its between Modern Family (habit) Big Bang Theory (ratings and because the Academy favors tradition and old school form more than they do in the Drama category) and 30 Rock (farewell) mostly because they're all on Broadcast Networks which is where this category always finds its winners. I'm guessing 30 Rock just barely ekes out its fourth and final victory, still one shy of the all time record (Frasier won five times). But I worry. It hasn't won since 2009 and the genius of the supporting cast (particularly Jane Krakowski) has never been amply recognized / rewarded so one senses there are pockets of resistance within the television Academy.
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Connie Britton, Nashville, Claire Danes, Homeland, Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey, Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel, Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men, Kerry Washington, Scandal, and Robin Wright, House of Cards
I'm Rooting For: Elisabeth Moss but since Emmy voters clearly hate the idea of the best acted show on television ever winning any actual Emmy statues, can I have Connie Britton. That'd be so nice because it would make up for her not winning alongside Coach Taylor in that final season of Friday Night Lights plus she's great on Nashville.
Prediction: Easy. This is Claire Danes to lose again even if they turn on Homeland.
Jon Hamm has never won for one of the most brilliant characterizations that television as a medium has ever seenOUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey, Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad, Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men, Damien Lewis, Homeland, and Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
I'm Rooting For: Jon Hamm as per always. Emmy actually likes anti-heroes but for some reason people got all huffy this year about Don Draper being unlikeable this season. As if he was soft and cuddly on the other five seasons. LOL.
Prediction: I don't think Damian Lewis will repeat for Homeland but Emmy does love handing the same people the same statues repeatedly so I think they're easily going back to Bryan Cranston who already has 3 Emmys for this role from 2008, 2009 and 2010.
Trivia Alert: If Cranston wins a fourth, he ties Dennis Franz for most Emmys in this category ever. Franz won four times for NYPD Blue
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad, Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones, Christine Baranski, The Good Wife, Morena Baccarin, Homeland, and Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
I'm Rooting For: Christina Hendricks because it's insane that she hasn't won for this role. INSANE. That said this was hardly her strongest season with the narrative focused elsewhere so if I was forced to choose somehow else I would vote for Baccarin on Homeland who had a lot to work with and was quietly moving.
Prediction: I'm at a loss. If this is the year of Breaking Bad, than Gunn has a solid shot. Or they could default and just choose Dame Maggie again.
Did you star in Yentl? Yes, I starred in Ye--- what the hell kind of polygraph is this?
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA
The Nominees: Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire, Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad, Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, Jim Carter, Downton Abbey, Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones and Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
I'm Rooting For: Mandy Patinkin in Homeland who is the show's grounding MVP in some ways and really should have been nominated for the first season. What was that about?
Prediction: Judging from online excitement I think Jonathan Banks will take it.
Trivia: Mandy Patinkin has a Tony (Evita) and an Emmy (Chicago Hope) but has never been nominated for a Grammy (despite multiple albums) or an Oscar.
OUTSTANDING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Laura Dern, Enlightened, Lena Dunham, Girls, Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie, Tina Fey, 30 Rock, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep and Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
I'm Rooting For: Laura Dern or Amy Poehler though all of these women are great on their shows
Prediction: Er... uh... I think it's between Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep and Tina Fey for her 30 Rock farewell. Both have won before.
Trivia: Weirdly, despite the ruts that Emmy gets in with nominations and wins including in this category (Candice Bergen and Helen Hunt held a stranglehold forever. Ugh), they haven't repeated a win in a really long time. Not since 2001 when Patricia Heaton won her second for Everybody Loves Raymond.
OUTSTANDING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock, Jason Bateman, Arrested Development, Louis CK, Louie, Don Cheadle, House of Lies, Matt LeBlanc, Episodes and Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
I'm Rooting For: Louis CK easily
Prediction: Parsons and Baldwin have both won twice and it's easy to imagine either of them repeating. Let's say Baldwin for a 30 Rock farewell
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory, Jane Lynch, Glee, Julie Bowen, Modern Family, Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie, Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock, Anna Chlumski, Veep, and Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
I'm Rooting For: I'm on Jenna's Side. Jenna 4ever. the only acceptable vote is Jane Krakowski both for another inspired season, her last season, AND her entire Emmy-less career. If Krakowski wasn't still Emmy-less despite brilliant work for years and years and consecutive years I'd be rooting for Wever, a true original in Nurse Jackie.
Prediction: Why do I have a weird suspicion we're getting Bialik?
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY
The Nominees: Adam Driver, Girls, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family, Ed O’Neill, Modern Family, Ty Burrell, Modern Family, Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live and Tony Hale, Veep
I'm Rooting For: Adam Driver, 100%
Prediction: Tough call. They dont tend to stray from Modern Family so let's say Ed O'Neill or Jesse Tyler Ferguson to mix it up this time.
Who are you rooting for and who are you predicting for the big night Sunday?