The Screen Actors Guild nominations are just one week away. Who do you think will be nominated for Best Ensemble? Spotlight is the only sure things since it screams "ENSEMBLE!" Or at least it whispers "Ensemble" with grave concern and sobriety standing with arms akimbo with rolled up sleeves and khakis. The Martian is probably in since it's well liked, hard to avoid, has a big cast, and it's long been speculated that actors sometimes vote for movies that they wish they could have been in (i.e. movies wherein a bunch of people look to be having fun making it)
But that's only two slots. So where do the other three go? More after the jump...
SAG prefers obviously expansive casts in this category which is why we should first suspect some combo of three from this group to make it in: Hateful Eight, Black Mass, Sicario, Suffragette, Youth, Straight Outta Compton, The Big Short, and Joy. You'll notice that about half of those are heavily male casts in movies that have been accused of misogyny... or are at least partially about that (see Sicario). Which could make for an awkward shortlist of all men all the time since Spotlight is the likely winner. Unless Suffragette is invited, you know?
But it's tough to say which of those the randomly selected nominated committees might glom on to.
The other presumed Oscar players are the type of films that make you think primarily of one or two people -- films like: Brooklyn, Room, Carol, Steve Jobs, The Revenant, Carol, Bridge of Spies, Love and Mercy, Creed, The Danish Girl; all of these films have ensembles but some voters might think of them as star vehicles first and foremost.
Then there are the smaller movies that they might not even think of while voting even if they would be good fits for the category -- like The Diary of a Teenage Girl, for instance.
And wouldn't that be a fun choice? Sadly SAG hasn't delivered a truly shocking nomination in this category in a really long time. The days of a Hustle & Flow (2005) or The Station Agent (2003) showing up seem long gone.