by Nathaniel R
Ballots for the Screen Actors Guild nominations are due tomorrow. Their most crucial category is Outstanding Ensemble. People liken it constantly to Best Picture and while it's not supposed to be that, they do sometimes vote that way. Given the way SAG voting works with a new nominating committee randomly drawn each year from among the many many thousands of SAG members, nothing is ever truly safe. Sometimes their nominations are surprising but cool (remember Hustle & Flow or The Station Agent's ensemble nods?), other times they feel like lazy Best Picture predictions. And then there are the years when they appear to have voted in early Fall before anyone saw movies and any buzz started to solidify. It's tough to know what kind of year we'll have...
Since we can't really hope for miracles and since Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are just about the only films that feel like locks for Ensemble due to the nature of their structures, current powerhouse buzz, and multiple actors contributing to indelibility, we're throwing all our prayers behind 20th Century Women. The late start might be a problem for this gorgeous communal dramedy but we hope not since its arguably the best work done by any of its cast members and they're all sharing scenes constantly in different permutations.
Predictions... Hmmm, Let's See...
extremely likely
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
strong possibilities
Hidden Figures
Lion
Hacksaw Ridge
Fences
20th Century Women
will they or won't they despite a very small principle cast?
Hell or High Water
PREDICTIONS: I'm going to go with Fences, Hell or High, Hidden Figures, Manchester and Moonlight... but I really hope to be wrong since 20th Century Women should be in a fight for the win in a perfect world.
could surprise if it's one of those years when it feels like SAG voted in September
Sully
Florence Foster Jenkins
juicy ensemble acting but where the hell is the buzz?
Love & Friendship
Miss Sloane
The Handmaiden
The Lobster
The Witch
Little Men
A Bigger Splash
longshots for this particular prize
(but they do have multiple "names" in the cast and that can definitely help with SAG)
Hail Caesar
Jackie
Silence
Captain Fantastic
Live By Night
Rules Don't Apply
Arrival
The Founder
Eye in the Sky
Certain Women
They would be so totally wrong as "ensemble" nominees given that they are duets
La La Land
Loving
THOUGHTS? EXTREME LONGSHOT FYCS? PREDICTIONS?
Have at it in the comments