You have a pretty good idea of the films I've loved this year thanks to reviews, frequency of posting, and other "honors" - consider it a warm up before the year end party... so that we don't forget the early films. So let's dispense with all the froufrou and just get right to the questions:
If Oscar voting happened now, would LOVE & FRIENDSHIP lead?
1. If you had a 5-wide Best Picture Ballot right now (January to June releases only) who would you vote for?
2. What would Oscar nominate if the Academy voted right now?
Here's my guesswork about the Academy. If they voted right now (only January through June releases eligible) my guess is that we'd see the following films up for Best Picture...
- Finding Dory as a nod to Pixar, smash hits, and because they wouldn't be sure what else to pick
- Hail Caesar because it's the Coen Brothers (automatic high profile / class) and they wouldn't be sure what else to pick
- Love & Friendship because it's tremendously witty and popular and also vaguely prestigious (though unfussy about it) in that it's a costume movie based on a famous author's work
- The Witch because its fans are devout and A24 is having a great year
Those are four guesses but beyond that who knows? I'm not suggesting any of these would factor in at year's end but it would be so very satisfying if Oscar voters looked at the full film year instead of just its last quarter. What else do you suppose they'd go for? Sing Street despite its youth? Captain America Civil War despite its superhero-ness? The Lobster despite its peculiarity? Midnight Special despite its 'that's all?' ness? If we gave them one more weekend they'd surely take The BFG if only for Spielberg.
As silly as this exercize in speculation may be, it's telling how difficult it is to guess. In the vacuum of giant campaigns and the whole circus around getting certain films and people nominations, what would rise within a more limited pool of contenders?
BUT ENOUGH WITH OSCAR...
My personal ballot
- Embrace of the Serpent (Ciro Guerra)
- The Fits (Anna Rose Holmer)
- The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos)
- Sing Street (John Carney)
- The Witch (Robert Eggers)
Same list again for Best Director. If you want to be a stickler with Oscar eligibility I'd put Whit Stillman's Love & Friendship in the Embrace of the Serpent sized hole. (ELIGIBILITY TRIVIA: Due to confusing Oscar rules Serpent is ineligible this year, despite qualifying theatrical release because it was foreign-film nominated last year. Had it missed the nomination, it would have been eligible in all other categories this year due to its actual US release. That's the weirdness that also happened with City of God back in the day because it DID miss the nominee list in 2002 and became eligible the next year due to its follow up theatrical release in February 2003 which had been planned to coincide with the nomination it did not receive. Got it?)
Here are a few more categories (my ballot, not Oscar speculation) just for fun...
Best Original Screenplay
- Hail, Caesar!
- The Lobster
- Swiss Army Man
- The Witch
- Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
- A Bigger Splash (based on La Piscine)
- Captain America: Civil War (based on various Marvel Comics)
- The Family Fang (based on "The Family Fang")
- High-Rise (based on "High-Rise")
- Love & Friendship (based on "Lady Susan")
Best Editing
- 10 Cloverfield Lane, Stefan Grube
- A Bigger Splash, Walter Fasano
- Captain America: Civil War, Jeffrey Ford & Matthew Schmidt
- The Lobster, Yorgos Mavropsaridis
- The Witch, Louise Ford
Best Visual Effects
- Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
- Captain America: Civil War
- The Jungle Book
- The Shallows
- The Witch
Best Makeup and Hair
- A Bigger Splash
- Deadpool
- Hail, Caesar!
- Love & Friendship
- Sing Street
Best Sound Mixing
- 10 Cloverfield Lane
- Captain America: Civil War
- Hail Caesar
- The Jungle Book
- Sing Street
Best Sound Editing
- 10 Cloverfield Lane
- Captain America: Civil War
- The Jungle Book
- The Witch
- Zootopia
Best Original Score
- Hail, Caesar!, Carter Burwell
- High-Rise, Clint Mansell
- The Jungle Book, John Debney
- The Shallows, Marco Beltrami
- The Witch, Mark Korven
Best Adapted or Song Score
- The Lobster - Beethoven, Stravinksy, Shostakovich, and More...
- Swiss Army Man - originals by Andy Hull and Robert McDowell. Plus: John Williams, and Traditionals
hmmm, what else?
P.S. Yes, we'll be updating the Oscar charts this weekend!