by Nathaniel R
Helen Mirren's The Queen was in many ways a completely standard win... a solid success before the nomination and an even bigger hit afterwardsDoes Box Office matter to Oscars? It does and it doesn't. And how much it matters varies from year to year and from category to category. It obviously matters, regardless, if you're either a flop or a big hit but anything inbetween (where most movies fall) is up for speculative debate.
For instance, just this year people have debated whether The Wife's box office take is strong enough for a Best Actress nomination for Glenn Glose (hint: it totally is... though winning will be harder) and whether it will matter that Roma won't really have that much of a theatrical presence (it might. it might not. The streaming only/mostly thing is relatively uncharted territory) or if the major success of A Star is Born will make a win possible for Lady Gaga (it won't hurt!)
For fun let's look at how much the Best Actress nominees films made before they were nominated for the past fifteen years and see what patterns emerge. The films in red won Best Actress Oscars.
BOX OFFICE RANK OF BEST ACTRESS FILMS
BEFORE THE NOMINATIONS (2003-2017)
AND WHERE THIS YEAR'S LEADING ACTRESSES CURRENTLY FIT...
- Gravity $256.3 (of an eventual $274)
- The Blind Side $238.1 (of an eventual $255.9)
...and now the non-Sandra Bullock portion of the list ;)
BIG HITS
They can get you Oscar attention even if the film isn't a 'typical' Oscar genre like, say, thrillers (Gone Girl or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo) or comedies (The Devil Wears Prada and Juno)
CONSTANCE WU IN CRAZY RICH ASIANS - The Help $169.5 (of an eventual $169.7)
- Gone Girl $167.2 (total)
🔺 LADY GAGA IN A STAR IS BORN - The Devil Wears Prada $124.7 (total)
- Something's Gotta Give $107.3 (of an eventual $124.7)
- Walk the Line $106.3 (of an eventual $119.5)
- American Hustle $104.5 (of an eventual $150.1)
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo $94.8 (of an eventual $102.5)
- Julie & Julia $94.1 (total)
- La La Land $90.4 (of an eventual $151.1)
- Juno $87 (of an eventual $143.4)
- Black Swan $83.7 (of an eventual $106.9)
MODEST HITS
Notice that most of the nominated performances are from Oscar friendly genres... which is why we worry about Toni Colette in Hereditary despite being totally deserving and receiving the type of reviews which scream "nominate her for this!". She'd fall in this group but it's a horror film so she'd have a much better shot if the film were a hit the size of something like Black Swan... - Joy $48.1 (of an eventual $56.4)
- The Post $45.7 (of an eventual $81.9)
- Precious $45.4 (of an eventual $47.5)
- Lady Bird $39.1 (of an eventual $48.9)
TONI COLETTE IN HEREDITARY - Pride & Prejudice $37.4 (of an eventual $38.4)
- The Queen $35.8 (of an eventual $56.4)
- Silver Linings Playbook $35.7 (of an eventual $132)
- Changeling $35.7 (total)
- Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind $34.4 (total)
- Blue Jasmine $33 (total)
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missiouri $32.2 (of an eventual $54.4)
- Wild $31.2 (of an eventual $37.8)
- The Shape of Water $30.4 (of an eventual $63.8)
- Florence Foster Jenkins $27.3 (total)
- The Theory of Everything $26.2 (of an eventual $35.8)
- Doubt $25.7 (of an eventual $33.4)
🔺AMANDLA STENBERG IN THE HATE U GIVE - Brooklyn $22.7 (of an eventual $38.3)
- Philomena $22.5 (of an eventual $37.7)
- The Kids Are All Right $20.8 (total)
- Whale Rider $20.7 (total)
- North Country $18.3 (total)
- Elizabeth: The Golden Age $16.3 (total)
- I Tonya $14.7 (of an eventual $30)
ELSIE FISHER IN EIGHTH GRADE - The Iron Lady $12.9 (of an eventual $30)
- 21 Grams $12.2 (of an eventual $16.2)
- My Week with Marilyn $12 (of an eventual $14.6)
- Jackie $11.3 (of an eventual $13.9)
- Beasts of the Southern Wild $11.2 (of an eventual $12.7)
- Rachel Getting Married $10.7 (of an eventual $12.7)
- La Vie En Rose $10 (of an eventual $10.3)
ART HOUSE HITS OR JUST STARTING BEFORE GOING WIDE
They had less than $10 million in the bank before the nominations but enough audience interest to support healthy Oscar campaigns. - August: Osage County $9.8 (of an eventual $37.7)
CHARLIZE THERON IN TULLY - In America $9 (of an eventual $15.5)
- An Education $8.8 (of an eventual $12.5)
- Million Dollar Baby $8.4 (of an eventual $100.4)
- The Reader $8 (of an eventual $34.1)
GLENN CLOSE IN THE WIFE - Loving $7.6 (of an eventual $7.7)
- Carol $7.5 (of an eventual $12.7)
- Volver $7.5 (of an eventual $12.8)
- Maria Full of Grace $6.5 (total)
- Monster $6.2 (of an eventual $34.4)
- Winter's Bone $6.2 (of an eventual $6.5)
- Notes on a Scandal $6 (of an eventual $17.5)
- Zero Dark Thirty $5.2 (of an eventual $95.7)
- Room $5.2 (of an eventual $14.6)
FEW SAW THEM BEFORE THE NOMINATIONS
The following films earned less than $5 million before the nomination... this is dicier territory for contenders. Consider the fate of Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky whose film grossed $3.4 million before the nominations but she missed the list despite tons of precursor support.
Note: actresses don't ever win with grosses this low. - Blue Valentine $4.5 (of an eventual $9.7)
- Away From Her $4.5 (total)
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY IN COLETTE - The Impossible $4 (of an eventual $19)
- Being Julia $3.8 (of an eventual $7.7)
- Little Children $3.7 (of an eventual $5.4)
- The Savages $3.6 (of an eventual $6.6)
RACHEL WEIZ in DISOBEDIENCE - Frozen River $2.3 (of an eventual $2.5)
- Vera Drake $2.2 (of an eventual $3.7)
- Mrs Henderson Presents $2 (of an eventual $11)
🔺 MELISSA MCCARTHY IN CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? - Elle $1.6 (of an eventual $2.3)
- Transamerica $1.5 (of an eventual $9)
- Rabbit Hole $1.2 (of an eventual $2.2)
BARELY ANYONE SAW BEFORE NOMINATIONS
It's worth noting that any film grossing under $1 million before nominations just doesn't get you nominated UNLESS it is a december release as these all were. It's the only time of year you dont have to prove your commercial viability to get a nomination. Which is why despite strong performances actresses like Mary Elizabeth Winstead in All About Nina ($95k) and Michelle Pfeiffer in Where is Kyra? ($59k) and Hilary Swank in What They Had ($159k) aren't generating anything in the way of awards conversations.
🔺CAREY MULLIGAN IN WILDLIFE - Amour $371k (of an eventual $6.7)
- 45 Years $366k (of an eventual $4.2)
- The Last Station $355k (of an eventual $6.6)
- Two Days, One Night $180k (of an eventual $1.4)
ONE WEEK QUALIFIERS
the only films that 'cheated' with qualifying weeks are below -- i.e. they didn't open in the proper way until they had already secured the nomination. This only works for mainstream movie star actresses. Everyone else needs more rev up time. Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin is a prime example. That film tried the one week qualifier and though Tilda secured almost every precursor nomination she still missed the Oscar list. - Still Alice N/A (of an eventual $18.7)
- Albert Nobbs N/A (of an eventual $3)
A handful of final thoughts:
• We have no idea yet how Ben is Back, Mary Queen of Scots, The Favourite, or Widows will perform but Widows seems likely be a hit which helps make Viola Davis the safest bet among the opening in November / early December crowd.
• Felicity Jones in On the Basis of Sex, Nicole Kidman in Destroyer, and Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns won't likely have to worry about box office results given that they're opening much too late for that to be a real factor. This will also be extremely useful for Yalitza Aparicio. Roma will surely make next to nothing in theaters (since you'll be able to stream it at home) but that *might* not matter given the late release with lots of build up hype... so Netflix seems to be playing it smart in this particular regard, even if, like one week qualifiers, it's a shady wayto circumvent the usual scrutiny that comes with how general audiences respond to your movie.
• Marion Cotillard in Two Days One Night is the lowest grossing Best Actress nominee of the past 15 years but that performance was very hard to deny... though they surely would have denied had their been more robust competition. It's worth noting that Cotillard's chief competition for the nomination that year was Jennifer Aniston in Cake, who tried a one-week qualifier. But Jennifer Aniston is not Julianne Moore or Glenn Close and you basically have to be an Oscar darling to get away with those one-week qualifiers... at least in contemporary Oscar races.
• Marion Cotillard also holds the distinction of being the lowest grossing Best Actress winner of the past 15 years via La Vie En Rose which closed with only $10 million but $10 million for a foreign language title is basically an inarguable "hit" and a bigger hit than, say, Brie Larson in Room the runner up for lowest grosser with just $14.6 million at closing. If Glenn Close were to win for The Wife, she would immediately assume this title. Winners only for the past 15 years. Final domestic grosses at closing...
- Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (2009) $255.9
big hits - Emma Stone, La La Land (2016) $151.1
- Jennifer Lawrence, The Silver Linings Playbook (2012) $132
- Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line (2005) $119.5
- Natalie Portman, Black Swan (2010) $106.9
- Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby (2004) $104
success stories - Helen Mirren, The Queen (2006) $56.4
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards (2017) $54.4
- Charlize Theron, Monster (2003) $34.4
- Kate Winslet, The Reader (2008) $34.1
- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (2013) $33
- Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (2011) $30
minor box office but lots of prestige - Julianne Moore, Still Alice (2014) $18.7
- Brie Larson, Room (2015) $14.6
- Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose (2007) $10.3
• Last year's best actress race is in many ways very typical in terms of Box Office for Best Actresses in that all five films were at least moderately successful.
Tonya, Mildred, Lady Bird, Eliza, and Katherine
There was one substantial hit (Meryl Streep in The Post), two modest hits (Frances McDormand in Three Billboards and Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water) and two sleeper hits with low budgets that took people by surprise and ended up real contenders (Margot Robbie in I Tonya and Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird). All five films were significantly buoyed by awards buzz, since they all opened in either November or December.