Producers Guild Nominations
Friday, January 4, 2019 at 3:01PM
NATHANIEL R in Best Picture, Oscar Trivia, PGA, precursor awards, superheroes

by Nathaniel R

The PGA have announced their nominations for 2018. True to form they've leaned into big hits and crowd pleasers rather than pure critical acclaim. It's important to note straightaway that in the modern era of the expanded Best Picture list the PGA list has never exactly matched the Oscar list though it has ONCE included all the nominees (plus an additional film since PGA has 10 where Oscar is on a 5-10 system that's so far only delivered 8 or 9 nominees each year). Last year the two lists were markedly different, though, with 4 of the 10 titles dropping off when the Oscar list was announced, and two different titles popping up in their place.

After the jump all of the PGA nominees this year (in multiple film and television categories) and to show you how important box office success is to the PGA, the number in parenthesis is where that film ranks (currently) on the list of 2018 box office grosses. We'll also discuss what this all means in terms of what could happen with Oscar...

Theatrical Motion Picture

ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE PGA AND OSCAR...

When Oscar includes a title that the PGA ignored it's usually either a small acclaimed indie (like Room or Winter's Bone) or something from across the pond (like an Amour or a Philomena). PGA also likes blockbuster films slightly more than Oscar does.

Both organizations have recency bias but when it comes to last second releases they don't always line up and it's a wash as to which organization makes the better choice in that regard. Last year for example the PGA went for Molly's Game while the Oscars went for Phantom Thread... both were released on Christmas day and expanded in January. Oscar wins that particular match with ease but in 2011 the recency taste battle obviously goes to the PGA which chose The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Dec 21st) while Oscar went for Extremely Loud & Incredible Close (Dec 25th)

As you can see in the lists below, the PGA (which has 10 or 11 nominees each year while Oscar has only tended to have 8 or 9) never fully lines up. The Producers Guild list is nearly always short 1 or 2 eventual Oscar Best Picture nominees which is good news for what we'd consider the five key films that feel like they're in the running still...

SNUBBED BY PGA BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN OSCAR WON'T BE INTERESTED

More on those titles in a minute but first this absolute fact: there's never been a year where the two organizations exactly lined up. One of the PGA nominees is always dropped and last year four titles were axed. The closest the lists ever came to an exact match was in 2016 when Deadpool was the 10th nominee at PGA but Oscar only had 9 nominees.

Differences in PGA to Oscar in recent Best Picture years 

2018: TBA

2017: (PGA only) The Big Sick, I Tonya, Molly's Game, and Wonder Woman
          Oscar replaced with: Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread

2016: (PGA only) Deadpool
          Oscar replaced with: All other nominations matched.

2015: (PGA only) Ex Machina, Sicario and Straight Outta Compton
          Oscar replaced with: Room 

2014: (PGA only) Foxcatcher, Gone Girl and Nightcrawler
          Oscar replaced with: Selma

2013: (PGA only) Blue Jasmine and Saving Mr Banks
          Oscar replaced with: Philomena

2012: (PGA only) Moonrise Kingdom and Skyfall
          Oscar replaced with: Amour

2011: (PGA only) Bridesmaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Ides of March
          Oscar replaced with: The Tree of Life and  Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

2010: (PGA only) The Town
          Oscar replaced with: Winter's Bone

2009: (PGA only) Invictus and Star Trek
          Oscar replaced with: The Blind Side and A Serious Man

 

SO WHICH TITLES MIGHT DROP OUT?

A Quiet Place, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Crazy Rich Asians seem the most vulnerable from the ten nominees for various reasons but all of them got big awards campaigns and three of them (not including Vice) were massive non-franchise hits which is something the industry desperately needs lest they one day be churning out only superhero movies. Bohemian Rhapsody feels like the safest bet to continue on to Oscar because it's already surpassed all expectations in terms of box office and awards heat. The other three though...

If Oscar is true to form at least one of those three titles but probably two will drop out. And at least one of the five major "snubs" First Man, First Reformed, If Beale Street Could Talk, Leave No Trace, Mary Poppins Returns  will show up instead. I'm worried for Mary Poppins now though since it's definitely the type of mainstream hit that the PGA would usually embrace. The other four you could see lining up with some of the replacements from history. For example. Darkest Hour was presumed dead after missing the PGA last year but it was a typical "Oscar bait" genre like First Man and resurged with BAFTA nods and then did better than anyone expected with Oscar nominations. The other three First Reformed, Leave No Trace, and If Beale Street all match the "critical darling / acclaimed indie" descriptor and those films nearly always fare better with Oscar than the PGA. 

OKAY NOW THE REST OF THE PGA NOMINEES FOR COMPLETISM'S SAKE

Animated Picture

Lovers of Mirai and foreign animation shouldn't worry too much about this list. Historically the PGA doesn't care for indie animation or foreign animation, but Oscar very much does to the tune of at least 1 nomination a year.

Episodic Television Drama

Episodic Television Comedy

Limited Series Television

The Romanoffs. That's a surprise since many people hated it. 

Televised Motion Pictures

Non Fiction Television

Live Entertainment and Talk Television

Competition Television

Short Form Program

Sports Program

Children's Programming

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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