by Chris Feil
One of the biggest headlines among the Monday release of Oscar's shortlists among nine categories was a popstar omission from the season's splashiest musical. Yes, it turns out Taylor Swift will have to wait to lift up to Oscar's Heaviside Layer as "Beautiful Ghosts" (the original track she cowrote with Andrew Lloyd Webber from Cats) was left off the list of songs that will advance towards hopeful nominations. But perhaps "Ghosts" is a strong reminder that these days doesn't clear the runway for popstars or new songs for preexisting musicals as easily as we might expect.
But among the lineup of hopefuls are films huge and small, expected names and a few genuine surprises - and it may be a more competitive field than originally expected. Let's run down the fifteen songs that did make the lineup and their chances at a nomination...
“Speechless” - Aladdin
Aladdin shares the strange, new distinction with fellow competitor The Lion King of featuring new music for a musical that first began as a screen musical that also won an Original Song Oscar. Head-spinning! Because "Speechless" features so prominently in the film's narrative, and was written by former winners Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, it could be a safe prediction. But it's easy to imagine it as Disney's lowest priority among its stacked field of original songs.
“Letter To My Godfather” - The Black Godfather
This opus to the subject of the documentary, record executive Clarence Avant, has several things in its favor. It's cowritten (with Chad Hugo) and performed by previous nominee and legend Pharrell Williams and has the weight of Netflix behind it. The songwriting branch is also unafraid to nominate documentaries, and this one is already based in the music industry.
“I’m Standing With You” - Breakthrough
If you think that a song from this faith-based drama means we're headed for Alone Yet Not Alone part deux, guess again. Not only does this boast having This Is Us' Chrissy Metz on vocals (she's the film's headliner), but it comes from one of Oscar's most nominated and still tropheyless songwriters: Diane Warren. The fact that the song is abjectly terrible won't make much of a hindrance considering some of her nominations have been on the dubious side. Oscar, stop making me root against Diane Warren!!
“Da Bronx” - The Bronx USA
Written by Oscar winner Paul Williams and nominee Charles Fox, the pedigree and trying to prepare for that unpredictable documentary nominee give plenty of pause. But its lack of availability to listen to the track on platforms like YouTube or Spotify suggest that this is sadly the very lowest profile of the nominees. An HBO doc hasn't shown up in this category before.
“Into The Unknown” - Frozen II
Disney followed suit with last year's winner "Shallow" and only campaigned one song for the film, despite some equally worthy (ahem, or even moreso) songs in the same film. "Into the Unknown"'s disadvantage perhaps is that it stands in the shadow of the titanic "Let It Go" - but that's probably more of a hindrance to a win than a nomination. Prep your Adele Dazeem jokes now, because the Lopezes and Idina Menzel are likely coming back to the Dolby.
“Stand Up” - Harriet
I've called this the frontrunner, and I still stand by this. You can see the opportunity for Cynthia Erivo to perform the song while stumping for her Best Actress campaign, fueling the heat for both. In this shortened Oscar season, the movies that can simply be widely seen have a leg up - and Harriet's hit status ensures it will be one of those. Erivo and her co-songwriter Joshuah Brian Campbell are at least one of the safest bests for a nomination.
“Catchy Song” - The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part
Will everything be awesome again? While we welcome something this bananas and buoyant opposite a field packed with ballads and brooding (not to mention its hilarious POV on the sinister side of addictive pop), it seems like a bit of a pipe dream. But Jonathan Lajoie and Alaya High deserve equal consideration for one-upping the original's over-caffeinated brilliance.
“Never Too Late” - The Lion King
You'd think the Elton John / Tim Rice collaboration might have more clout, but this one is a major case of internal competition. The only film with two shortlisted songs, this one is not only overshadowed by the buzzier "Spirit" in the same film but by John's more personal song he's actively campaigning for in Rocketman.
“Spirit” - The Lion King
This might need the boost of Beyoncé campaigning for it, honestly. But the many folks who were underwhelmed by the song - cowritten between the icon, Ilya Salmanzadeh, and Labrinth - might be assuaged by... some of its competition. For my money, the song is lovely and the only moment in the remake that moves the dial in the least, but I think the original's Oscar history might be a major unexpected roadblock.
“Daily Battles” - Motherless Brooklyn
Oscar might continue to giveth and taketh away from Thom Yorke again this year, after last year's shortlisting of Suspiria. I'm not sure if this song's anachronistic sound to Brooklyn's period will hinder its chances or help it stand out. They'll certainly honor him eventually if he keeps up this prestige pace.
“A Glass of Soju” - Parasite
Yes, Parasite has an original song; no, it is not "Jessica, Only Child"; everyone please calm down. While we are very into Oscar loving Parasite this much (and hopeful that the film's composer Jung Jaeil could get some love here since the film's brilliant score didn't make that shortlist) we won't get our hopes up. The last non-English song nominated was Paris 36's "Loin de Paname". Something cool to only get your hopes up further: Bong Joon ho wrote the lyrics.
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” - Rocketman
Concerts at historic LA theatres as an FYC event? Methinks that's how you land a nomination, especially if it's for a film honoring the artist's life. Elton could be the only actual music megastar in the final five, and it will be because he's willing to campaign and campaign hard.
“High Above The Water” - Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am
Perhaps I'm overstating the Original Song trend of documentaries, but it should be noted that half of them in the past decade have been from biodocs. This one is maybe the most likely to show up of this lineup anyway, with songwriter Kathryn Bostic giving a joyful sound to a figure we were heartbroken to lose this year.
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” - Toy Story 4
Randy Newman could also be a double nominee this year between this and his score for Marriage Story. As we've pointed out before, he's one of Oscar's favorites and doubting his chances here would be particularly foolish - he's been nominated for each round of this franchise. Since the song centers on the series' newest oddball character, consider this one Oscar For Forky.
“Glasgow” - Wild Rose
The one that has the most vocal fans and champions among Oscar obsessives, but will that overlap with Oscar voters? We've been singing its praises for months here at TFE, so you can count us among the hopeful. Mary Steenburgen's unexpected contribution to the song (along with collaborators Caitlyn Smith and Kate York) makes for a great story, but this still may be too small in the face of giant names and films.
PREDICTIONS:
Breakthrough
Frozen II
Harriet
The Lion King ("Spirit")
Rocketman
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