by Abe Fried-Tanzer
There are many factors that go into the way Emmy voters choose the winner of their top awards, and we’re taking a look today at where the Outstanding Drama Series contenders stand from a statistical and recent history perspective.
Better Call Saul (Season 4 – 9 nominations)
AMC’s prequel to the acclaimed Breaking Bad, is back for the fourth time after the show missed last season’s eligibility window. It matched its nomination total from season three, but has yet to win an Emmy in any category. Consider the inclusion of supporting actor Giancarlo Esposito and the exclusion of supporting actress Rhea Seehorn a draw. Star Bob Odenkirk may finally break through and win a lead acting trophy this year, but this show has so little buzz that it would be a shock to see it triumph.
Bodyguard (Season 1 – 2 nominations)
This six-episode freshman thriller scored a major breakthrough with a bid in this race. But it managed only one other nomination, for writing, and, puzzlingly, missed out on a nomination for lead actor Richard Madden, who took home the Golden Globe...
There’s no denying that this show was an intense and highly enthralling drama, but its minimal nominations haul and the lack of any acting nominees (supporting actress Keeley Hawes was another popular prediction) suggests it has almost no chance of winning.
Game of Thrones (Season 8 – 32 nominations)
The lowest nominations tally this show has ever achieved was back in season two, when it scored only eleven nominations. For its final season, it nearly tripled that total, achieving a record-breaking thirty-two bids, the most for any program in any one year ever. It’s hard to argue with that. Its last three seasons have claimed this award, it boasts a whopping ten acting nominations, and the only thing going against it is that some people hated the final season. It doesn’t appear that those were Emmy voters, and in the absence of another frontrunner, this should be it.
Killing Eve (Season 2 – 9 nominations)
Most agree that this show just missed this category for its freshman season, which earned two bids, and now it’s nominated in all requisite races, something that can only be said about one other nominee (see the juggernaut above). Though it’s popular, it’s still a strange show, one that likely won’t win over every voter. Sandra Oh is a good bet to win the best actress trophy if she can eclipse costar Jodie Comer. A writing victory seems much more achievable than winning this top award.
Ozark (Season 2 – 9 nominations)
Here’s another show that did much better this year than on its first try. After a major showing at the SAG Awards that included a win for star Jason Bateman, it’s now up in a bunch of races. Standout supporting actress Julia Garner has a shot at winning her category if the four (!) nominees from Game of Thrones split the vote, and Bateman might also win, either for directing or for acting. But this show doesn’t feel big or beloved enough to score the top prize for drama, even with a decent presence this year.
Pose (Season 1 – 6 nominations)
FX’s 80s ball drama has its lead actor, Billy Porter, nominated, but it didn’t score any directing or writing bids. You have to go back to 1999 to find an example of a show winning this award without a nomination in either of those categories. While it may not have the statistical advantage or anywhere near the highest nomination haul, this show does have an emotional pull and a devoted fan base that could enable it to pull off a surprise victory. If voters are tired of celebrating a long-running fantasy epic, this would be an incredible opportunity to embrace something completely different.
Succession (Season 1 – 5 nominations)
HBO’s latest ensemble piece didn’t score with the Golden Globes or the SAG Awards, but it managed to break into this top race and earn citations for writing and directing. It did not, however, earn a single acting nomination, despite considerable buzz for Kieran Culkin and James Cromwell, plus many more members of the cast worthy of praise. Its low nomination count suggests that this show could be a big player in the future, but it’s going to sit out this category this year since it didn’t arrive as strongly as it could or should have.
This Is Us (Season 3 – 9 nominations)
Three seasons in and on its third consecutive nomination, NBC’s family drama is performing consistently. Despite being shut out by the Golden Globes this past year, it won its second consecutive SAG Award for its ensemble. The trouble is, while it boasts seven acting nominations, it still hasn’t merited a single directing or writing bid. Viewers still seem to love it, but if it wasn’t going to win on its first try, there’s nothing to suggest that now would be the time that voters would choose to reward it over other hotter fare.
Where does this leave us?
Game of Thrones is definitely primed to win again, and one of the other seven nominees will have to really make a splash to pull off an upset. Which of these shows do you think should win?