The 92nd annual Academy Awards are almost upon us. They're just 29 days away at this writing. We'll have the official Oscar charts back up for you as soon as is humanly possible once the potentially exciting event has occurred on Monday (they're coming down now to prep for Monday's unfurling). But until then, it's time to make final predictions.
BEST PICTURE
The sure things: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, 1917. That's six titles that we can't imagine missing on Monday morning given their success to date in precursor awards and with critics and the public. The extremely probable: Marriage Story. The only reason we've begun to worry is that there's been virtually no traction for Noah Baumbach in Best Director which suggests that people have reduced the movie to "an actor's showcase"... but then where was the SAG Outstanding Cast nomination? It's likely in but if there's a shock omission Monday morning...
The big maybe: From there it gets MUCH trickier to predict. In the end we think Little Women is in 8th place. It's cresting at the right time and it fills a story void that the other Oscar contenders this year are mostly quite terrible about filling (the lives of women... you know, um, 50% of the earth's population!!!). If there's a ninth nominee? Whether or not there will be 9 nominees is unknowable but history suggests it's not unlikely since we've had either 8 or 9 nominees ever year of the new voting system. Of the vaguely plausible candidates, Knives Out feels the most "right now", The Two Popes the most crowd-pleasing, The Farewell the most deserving, and Ford V Ferrari the most old school pleasureable. If there's a ninth we're predicting Ford V Ferrari.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sure things: Scorsese, Mendes, Tarantino, and Bong Joon Ho can all feel secure. Their movies have done very well in precursors and, Mendes aside, they each have almost fanatical fanbases with cinephiles and, we think we can safely assume, within the directors branch too. Mendes doesn't need a fanatical fanbase since he's pulled off such a showy DIRECTOR'S ACHIEVEMENT style movie. The probable contenders for slot five? If you're putting money on your predictions you would be wise to stick with one of these three: Taiki Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) has the DGA nomination, Todd Phillips (Joker) has the buzz, and Greta Gerwig (Little Women) has the internet rooting for her and could become the social cause within the director's branch if they don't want to hear another round of "you only nominate men!" anger.
Longshot Maybe the rushed season has us thinking crazy but we think the fifth spot will be more of a surprise. Director used to go hand-in-hand with Best Picture but they've been fighting this decade... going through their own Marriage Story, if you will. (Yes Baumbach could still happen for slot five). Pawel Pawlokowski (Cold War) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) are proof under the new voting systems that you can still be the "lone wolf" Best Director nominee even if you don't have a film vying for one of the now nearly doubled Best Picture spots. A week ago I had a fantasy/hallucinatory faith that the recipient would be Celine Sciamma (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) who is easy to imagine with #1 votes, and not due to her gender though that wouldn't hurt. But we think NEON slept on that movie for too long and misjudged with that peek-a-book qualifying release. Film bros and other cinephiles seem to be rooting for the Safie Brothers (Uncut Gems) and that's also not outside the realm of possibility, as gross as that is to yours truly (I hated the movie). Because of our indecision and because no prediction has felt "safe" we're going to stick with Pedro Almodóvar (Pain and Glory) as the lucky surprise yes AND wishful thinking candidate. We'd be more confident if Tarantino and Scorsese weren't also fighting for 'look at this film that is also sort of about the end of my career!' style votes but it is what it is. So we're predicting Pedro while admitting that our rational headspace is screaming "Phillips" even though it will be very weird to have a Scorsese rip-off competing with the real thing.
BEST ACTRESS
Sure thing: Renée Zellweger, for Judy. Yes it's only her. And how weird is that? There are about eight women that feel like they're still in the running for a nomination so none could possibly be "locked" right? For fun here'd how I'd rank them in terms of PREFERENCE based on quality of performance NOT predictions:
I'd rank the still-standing 8 like so in terms of quality of performance
- Nyong'o, Us
- Johansson, Marriage Story
- [TIE???] Theron, Bombshell / Woodard, Clemency
- Zellweger, Judy
- Ronan, Little Women
- Awkwafina, The Farewell
- Erivo, Harriet
PLEASE NOTE: That top five is not my best actress ballot but more on that soon with the Film Bitch Awards.
Safest? Scarlett Johansson, if she wanted it more, could be the only real spoiler for Zellweger's second Oscar. Meanwhile you should never doubt the power of playing beloved figures in biopics so Cynthia Erivo is probably safe, too, even if there's little evident passion for that movie out there in the industry. A bloodbath for spots four and five: Precursors suggest that Charlize Theron is in and we're going to agree... even if Bombshell isn't particularly well-liked by critics. She's been working hard for the nomination, she's a major movie star who hasn't been nominated in way too long, and Oscar voters are routinely impressed by "transformations" of actor to real life figures. We think the final spot is actually a deadlock war between Lupita Nyong'o and Saoirse Ronan in Little Women. Lupita got the SAG nod and Saoirse the Globe nod and both films are hits. Saoirse has the advantage of being very recent but isn't Little Women's ensemble feel (Jo isn't quite as centered as she usually is) and this being a remake going to work against her? Though Oscar's genre bias is a definite obstacle we think Lupita, who received a terrific campaign (thanks Universal) is going to squeak this one out by a hair with the help of #1 votes becaus the performance is incredible. Is this wishful thinking? Possibly. We won't be surprised either way though.
BEST ACTOR
Sure thing: Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix are the only true locks. From there I'd literally call everyone else about even (and no, I'm not exaggerating). Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) has the prestige but a small foreign-language film, Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) has the right now enthusiasm but an annoying character, Taron Egerton (Rocketman) has the hardest working campaign but an early release film, Robert De Niro and Leonardo DiCaprio both have the advantage of headlining a Best Picture frontrunner even though it's hard to imagine either with a ton of #1 votes, Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name) and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes) both have the advantage of being in widely available enjoyable funny movie while also being significantly underrewarded through their careers. Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) has the advantage of being Christian Bale. I've honestly never been more confused about Best Actor predictions in my life.
So... gun to head: The precursors have been kindest to Leo but I've had a hunch he'd be left out all year (a break after that exhausting overdue campaign for The Revenant) so I'm sticking with that hunch and saying: Banderas, DeNiro, and Bale ... though honestly no combo would be surprise me (unless Driver or Phoenix were missing)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sure Things: Laura Dern, Jennifer Lopez, Florence Pugh, Margot Robbie
Fifth Slot: This race feels more sewn up than the others. I think the last spot goes to Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit, a film Hollywood likes and has actually seen. Though wouldn't it be lovely see Zhao Shuzhen surprise for The Farewell?
Long Shots: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Annette Bening (The Report) still feel like distant possibilities if Oscar feels contrarian this year but the precursors have mostly agreed.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sure things: Brad Pitt and Joe Pesci are all locked up.
And Probably Al Pacino is in too. Unless The Irishman underperforms -- if it's going to do so we might know early with a Pacino surprise omission. We were going to assume that Tom Hanks was in the fifth slot and not at allk safe but the Golden Globes Cecil B DeMille speech and the fact that he's a celebrity playing another celebrity and historically Oscar voters are rarely unimpressed with that trick all probably spell safe.
Fifth Slot Bloodbath: For a long time we though Anthony Hopkins would prevail with The Two Popes gainingmomentum but then the momentum seriously stopped. For a long time we hoped Alan Alda (Marriage Story) or Tracy Letts (Ford V Ferrari) might factor in as rare *actual supporting actors* in the supporting catgory but their campaigns didn't seem to gain traction. Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy) and John Lithgow (Bombshell) all feel like viable dark horse possibilities but we think Parasite's ever growing fanbase might just portend a rare foreign-language nomination for Song Kang Ho.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Sure things: Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Probably: Knives Out
Fighting for the fifth slot: This could go anywhere. Maybe Pain and Glory (crosses fingers), maybe Bombshell (if LA loves it more than NYC does), and the smart money is probably on The Farewell. though we're predicting a complete shut out for that beautiful movie (cries). So the guess is Uncut Gems which is going to score somewhere (argh!!!) so maybe it's here.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Sure Things: Jojo Rabbit, The Irishman, Little Women
Probably: (sigh) Joker
Fighting for Fifth Slot: Here's where we think The Two Popes actually lands a nomination though we're rooting for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood to score and Hustlers to come from nowhere (not really -- it's right there, people!!!) to kick out Joker.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Sure things: Parasite (South Korea). And that's it.
Probably: Pain and Glory (Spain)... but we can't ever forget the shock and pain of Volver being stiffed at the last minute. What a tragedy that was in the foreign category.
And Maybe: Les Miserables (France), Beanpole (Russia), and Corpus Christi (Poland)
We'd Like to See: Atlantics (Senegal) but maybe it'd be a little too out there for Oscar?
ANIMATED FEATURE
Sure things: Toy Story 4, Missing Link,
Probably: Frozen 2 but there are a lot of sequels this year. We're guessing it's either Frozen 2 or How to Train Your Dragon 3 that scores but not both. Is that crazy? Three sequels in a field of five sounds insane.
Going Out on a Limb: and say too more obscure films, critical favourite I Lost My Body and Klaus both land nomination.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Sure things: NONE. The Documentary Branch has proven time and time again that they don't believe in locks.
Our guesses: One Child Nation, Apollo 11, American Factory, Honeyland, For Sama
But spoilers abound so maybe we shouldn't doubt The Cave or Maiden?
COSTUME DESIGN
Sure things: Dolemite Is My Name, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other guesses: Rocketman, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit
But watch out for: Joker, 1917, Downton Abbey
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sure things: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other guesses: Joker, Ford V Ferrari
Fifth Slot Guess: Common wisdom suggests The Irishman but we're going to go with The Lighthouse
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Sure things: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Other guesses: The Irishman, Joker
But watch out for: Anything might happen here including Jojo Rabbit, Aladdin, Ad Astra, Little Women but we're going to riot if it's not Parasite.
FILM EDITING
Sure things: Ford V Ferrari, The Irishman
Other guesses: Jojo Rabbit, Marriage Story, Joker
But watch out for: It will be a total travesty if Parasite misses but we're guessing it will. Another distinct possibility that we should probably predict but are going to take a wild guess on is that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood misses.
MAKEUP AND HAIR
Sure things: Bombshell only.
Other guesses: Rocketman, Judy, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
But watch out for: Dolemite is My Name, Maleficent Mistress of Evil
VISUAL EFFECTS
Sure things: Avengers Endgame, Star Wars Rise of Skywalker, The Lion King
Other guesses: Alita Battle Angel, The Irishman
But watch out for: We really don't want the bad de-aging of The Irishman get in so wouldn't you rather see 1917 or Terminator Dark Fate there?
ORIGINAL SCORE
Sure things: 1917, Little Women, Joker
Other guesses: Ford V Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit
But watch out for: but watch out for Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn, or Star Wars Rise of Skywalker since John Williams rarely misses and we can't believe we're predicting that he will.
ORIGINAL SONG
Sure things: "Stand Up" from Harriet, "Into the Unknown" from Frozen
Other guesses: "I'm Gonna Love Me Again" from Rocketman, "Glasgow" from Wild Rose, "I'm Standing With You" from Breakthrough
But watch out for: "Spirit" from The Lion King or "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away" from Toy Story 4
SOUND MIXING
Sure things: Ford V Ferrari, Joker
Other guesses: Rocketman, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
But watch out for: The Irishman, Apollo 11, Toy Story 4, Rise of Skywalker
SOUND EDITING
Sure things: Ford V Ferrari,
Other guesses: Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Avengers Endgame, The Irishman
But watch out for: 1917, Toy Story 4, Rise of Skywalker, Apollo 11
ANIMATED SHORT
Our Guesses: Dcera (Daughter), Hair Love, Kitbull, Uncle Thomas: Accounting for Days, The Physics of Sorrow
But watch out for: He Can't Live Without Cosmos, Hors Piste, Memorable, Mind My Mind, and Sister
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Guesses: Fire in Paradise, In the Absence, Learning to Skate in a War Zone (if You're a Girl), St Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha
But watch out for: After Maria, Ghosts of Sugar Land, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers, Stay Close
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Guesses: Brotherhood, The Christmas Gift, Little Hands, Miller & Son, Refugee,
But watch out for: The Neighbor's Window, Nefta's Football Club, Saria, A Sister, Sometimes I Think About Dying