The Cinematographer's guild has spoken and they basically went with mainstream Best Picture frontrunners as is their habit. The five theatrical nominees are...
- Roger Deakins for 1917
- Phaedon Papamichael for Ford V Ferrari
- Rodrigo Prieto for The Irishman
- Robert Richardson for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Lawrence Sher for Joker
All but Sher are familiar to the Oscar race having been nominated before, particular Deakins (14 nominations / 1 win) and Richards (9 nominations / 3 wins).
Their "spotlight" nominees -- a fairly new category -- are always more interesting since they tend to be far removed from the Oscar race...
It's a cool prize for up and coming DPs. The nominees there are:
- Jarin Blaschke for The Lighthouse
- Natasha Braier for Honey Boy
- Jasper Wolf for Monos
You can safely assume that the five pictures in the main category are now the frontrunners for the Oscar nominations which is a smidge disappointing since it leaves out gorgeously lensed movies like Parasite, Portrait of a Lady, Atlantics, Ad Astra, Pain and Glory, The Lighthouse... etcetera as your mileage varies. But then 5 is never enough spots for such a rich area of filmmaking.
That said the ASC and Oscar match 5/5 only about half the time. Here's an example of the different lineups in the past decade with the differing films in bold and the winners marked by stars...
| 2018 ASC | 2018 OSCAR |
| Cold War ★ The Favourite First Man Roma A Star is Born |
Cold War The Favourite Never Look Away Roma ★ A Star is Born |
| 2017 ASC | 2017 OSCAR |
| Blade Runner 2049 ★ Darkest Hour Dunkirk Mudbound The Shape of Water |
Blade Runner 2049 ★ Darkest Hour Dunkirk Mudbound The Shape of Water |
| 2016 ASC | 2016 OSCAR |
| Arrival La La Land Lion ★ Moonlight Silence |
Arrival La La Land ★ Lion Moonlight Silence |
| 2015 ASC | 2015 OSCAR |
| Bridge of Spies Carol Mad Max Fury Road The Revenant ★ Sicario |
Carol Hateful Eight Mad Max Fury Road The Revenant ★ Sicario |
| 2014 ASC | 2014 OSCAR |
| Birdman ★ Grand Budapest Hotel Imitation Game Mr Turner Unbroken |
Birdman ★ Grand Budapest Hotel Ida Mr Turner Unbroken |
| 2013 ASC | 2013 OSCAR |
| 12 Years a Slave Captain Phillips The Grandmaster Gravity ★ Inside Llewyn Davis Nebraska Prisoners |
The Grandmaster Gravity ★ Inside Llewyn Davis Nebraska Prisoners |
| 2012 ASC | 2012 OSCAR |
| Anna Karenina Les Miserables Life of Pi Lincoln Skyfall ★ |
Anna Karenina Django Unchained Life of Pi ★ Lincoln Skyfall |
| 2011 ASC | 2011 OSCAR |
| The Artist Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Hugo Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy The Tree of Life ★ |
The Artist Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Hugo ★ The Tree of Life War Horse |
| 2010 ASC | 2010 OSCAR |
| Black Swan Inception ★ The King's Speech The Social Network True Grit |
Black Swan Inception ★ The King's Speech The Social Network True Grit |
2013 is the anomaly because it's hard to say how well the list lined up since the ASC inexplicably included 7 nominees (something they've never done before or since).
If anything is vulnerable from the ASC list it's likely either The Irishman (since the work is less showy than the others) or Ford V Ferrari (since that film doesn't have quite as much Best Picture heat). But what would prove a spoiler? It's difficult to say at this juncture.
That said we hope the nominees and winners don't totally lineup. It's always fun when they don't and why not spread the wealth with so many awards worthy options out there each year? The ASC win for Cold War last season was such a (good) shock.