"Licorice Pizza" it is for NBR
Thursday, December 2, 2021 at 5:11PM
NATHANIEL R in Licorice Pizza, NBR, Oscars (21), precursor awards

by Nathaniel R

The National Board of Review has spoken naming Paul Thomas Anderson's Licorice Pizza, the best of the year. The meandering 'California in the 70s' romantic comedy between a directionless 25 year old woman and a 15 year old child star/entrepeneur has delighted critics since it started screening and the NBR (though they're not a critics group) also felt the vibes. It's still shocking to me, personally that the internet isn't outraged about the plot alone (even though the film is careful about not really going there) while at the same time the internet loves to harass fully-grown adult stars with age differences. But... that's a distraction since social media outrage is a very different thing than awards organization proclivities.

The full list of winners, Oscar stats, and more NBR history including their 'recency bias' problems follow after the jump...

The NBR is the most secretive group this side of the HFPA in terms of their membership (all we ever hear is that it's a mix of academics, filmmakers, students, and film enthusiasts though I know of at least one professional critic who is a member) and inner workings but they always get a lot of press. They used to be "first" which helped them though each year now a different group tries to get that title.

For years the NBR's most questionable peculiarity was drooling on Clint Eastwood films. Even the rare ones the critics didn't like would show up on their top ten list but they've finally overcome that and didn't mention the quickly forgotten Cry Macho which opened in the two thousand years ago that was... September. Which brings us to the NBR's #1 bias,  Recency Bias. Though they threw a surprise curveball last year by fully embracing Da 5 Bloods (a summer release) usually they pick a November or December title.

Only two of their winners this year hit theaters or streaming before November, and they're in the less high profile categories of Directorial Debut and Documentary. A few of the winners haven't opened yet and all three films of the 'last to screen' Oscar hopefuls of the season (Don't Look Up, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley) are in their top ten list.

Film: LICORICE PIZZA
The rest of their top ten is in alpha order (and release dates listed for fun) 

A top ten aggregrate list without Power of the Dog on it just feels kinda... dumb? 

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA
I think this choice bears repeating / paraphrasing what we said last year when Spike Lee won and then suddenly everyone thought he was "a sure thing"...

The NBR almost never chooses someone who isn't firmly in the Oscar conversation for this prize. But, here's the catch and it's interesting: they often choose people for this category who seem like they're going to get an Oscar nomination and who we sometimes even remember as having been nominated, but actually weren't! Recently that's happened to Ridley Scott for The Martian, Clint Eastwood for American Sniper and Invictus, Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, Ang Lee for Sense & Sensibility, Todd Field for In the Bedroom,  Spike Lee for Da 5 Bloods... and so on. So if you're superstitious this might not be a great omen.

Only 15 of the last 31 winners have gone on to Oscar nominations which is the lowest Oscar correlation within the high profile categories.

Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD
The past 30 years have had a couple of NBR ties so the stats are a little confusing. It's a good omen to win here as you are usually nominated. But recently the winner haven't been repeating. Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea, 2016) is the last man to have won both the NBR and the Oscar in this category. 

Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY
26 of the last 30 winners have gone on to an Oscar nomination. But it's worth noting that the four who missed were all in the quite recent past: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emma Thompson (Saving Mr Banks), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin) and Lesley Manville (Another Year).  

Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST
27 of the last 31 winners have gone on to an Oscar nomination 

Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD
17 of the last 31 winners have gone on to an Oscar nomination. As with Best Director this is the category that doesn't have a particular high rate of Oscar correlation through the years but that's changing since the NBR is getting less and less daring in their choices in this particular category and going with presumed Oscar nominees for the past ten years. The last time somebody missed after winning the NBR was Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year (2014). 

Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO
 

Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
This feels like such a lazy choice given that Adapted Screenplay is where it's at this year in terms of really brilliant cinematic interpretations.  

Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA
 

Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG

Animated Feature: ENCANTO
The NBR is super mainstream in this particular category so this isn't a surprise. They usually go with a bigger from Pixar or Disney or Dreamworks.

Foreign Language Film: A HERO
They also release a top 5, alphabetically, so essentially a top six. The others are:

The NBR will occassionally throw in non-Oscar correlative choices here and Benedetta takes that spot this year since it's not eligible for Best International Feature Film. The rest are of course Oscar submissions


Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
Same thing with a top six. The others are:

Acting by an Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL

Copying the Gotham Awards here. And because we are required by our very nature to ask this when anyone names something "best ensemble" in whichever year--- did you actually think was the very best ensemble acting of the year or did you just like seeing all those famous stars in the same movie?

Does this award have any correlation to SAG's eventual nominees for Outstanding Cast? Why yes it does... though less thatn you'd perhaps think. 11 of the past 20 winners were SAG nominated but they usually don't win both prizes.

Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

Top Ten Independent Films
(Alpha Order)

The NBR's list in this category is always so head-scratching since if they really like something "indie" they just put it in the top ten (see Red Rocket's placement this year). So this doesn't actually suggest to us that they relaly loved any of these.  

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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