by Nathaniel R
We live in fear of a Jared Leto nomination. Do you?
When we last dove deep into Best Supporting Actor just over a month ago it felt like there were 10-20 contenders still in the conversation. Sadly once the critics began to throw their weight entirely behind just two contender (Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog and Troy Kotsur in CODA) and the Globes and the Critics Choice came up with almost identical lists (Kodi + Troy + Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan from Belfast) the race began to look unlike a race at all but more of a slow waiting game until the Oscar nominations which are still five weeks away.
Is there reason to hope for the race to widen again? We'd like to think so...
SAG nominations are next on January 12th and we are crossing our fingers for a major surprise though we're not exactly expecting one. SAG voters sometimes throw curveballs but not usually for interesting on-the-cusp choices. The Globes embraced Ben Affleck from The Tender Bar, and Critics Choice (who always choose more than five to improve their Oscar prediction odds) went with Jared Leto in House of Gucci and J.K. Simmons in Being the Ricardos) suggesting a tiny bit of wiggle room in "consensus" feeling... but is there enough of it? Or will SAG also choose Jared Leto as that seems like a performance just bad enough to prove irresistible to awards voters.
In short, will these next five weeks matter at all? Theoretically five weeks is a lot of time for collective opinion to shift.
Though the five in the presumed lead (Dornan, Hinds, Kotsur, Smit-McPhee, and arguably Jared Leto from House of Gucci) might prove hard to topple, that isn't an unassailable quintet. Remove Leto's Razzie-worthy showboating (and we sure hope they do) and you've instantly improved whatever shortlist might come our way on February 8th when the Oscar nominations are announced.
POTENTIAL SPOILERS THAT STILL FEEL POSSIBLE... SHUT UP, LET US DREAM!
Mike Faist, who we just spoke with, is an intriguing and worthy option for voters, but will West Side Story have enough overall momentum to get voters to think just slightly outside of the pre-ordained "Anita" box when it comes to the acting? Anita is always the awards magnet role from that show but when someone breaks out in a role ("Riff") that's usually not the standout role, shouldn't we collectively pay attention? That means it's the actor elevating it, not the role doing half the work! If he is nominated you will surely see a lot of rejoicing online.
Jon Bernthal (King Richard) is well positioned career-wise to capitalize on industry goodwill and he's in a picture that everyone presumes will do very well on Oscar nomination morning. So why isn't there more buzz? It's easy to picture him as a "surprise" in the final lineup due to the coattails effect but it's also easy to not picture that.
Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) is also well positioned to show up, even as a last minute surprise with no precursors. He's a well respected actor, the Academy enjoys him (4 acting nominations already), and he's in a movie that they'll surely see. But will they like it as much as critics do? On the other hand it's possible that too many influencers have dismissed this role as a "cameo" for voters to take it seriously. Never mind that he does more with two long scenes than many nominated actors have done with lots of screen time.
Finally, the Critics Choice cited J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) and, like Bernthal, he's easy to picture as a nominee, especially due to his alternating scenes of wise-cracking and offering sage advice. You might be hard pressed to find someone who'd name that role, which he could do in his sleep, as the Best acting of the year but there are always performances like that in the mix. What's more, if voters aren't watching a lot of movies, and they love what Nicole Kidman is selling as Lucille Ball, that may be enough to pull him in with her given that they both get such an "Oscar clip" out of their only scene alone together.
THE OTHER LONGSHOTS WOULD NOW REQUIRE A MIRACLE
Why couldn't critics let Kodi SMit-McPhee go for even a second to boost the prospects of really stellar supporting category aimed performances like Robin De Jesus (tick, tick...BOOM!) or Colman Domingo (Zola), or Woody Norman (C'mon C'mon), Jesse Plemons (Power of the Dog) Vincent Lindon (Titane), or Jason Isaacs (Mass)? It's one of the great mysteries of each awards seasons that critics groups prefer to rubber stamp each others choices rather than spread the wealth. We love Kodi Smit-McPhee's work, too, don't misunderstand. But it's fairly rare -- exceedingly once a decade rare even -- for one performance to tower so far above others that it's not worth throwing the prizes around given the blessed surplus of acting talent in today's cinema.
Revised Oscar Charts
Best Supporting Actor
Best International Feature Film
Best Animated Feature
Best Documentary Feature