Will the Golden Globes Reward New Shows Again This Year?
Sunday, February 21, 2021 at 9:43PM
Christopher James in Golden Globes, Punditry, Schitt's Creek, Ted Lasso, The Crown

by Christopher James 

Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host the Golden Globes, airing on NBC on Sunday, February 28th.It’s no secret that the Golden Globes love new TV shows. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is always hoping to crown a bright newcomer on the TV landscape. This doesn’t always translate to Emmys love (sorry The Affair and Brooklyn Nine-Nine), but it’s a great way to raise the profile of a show. 

Based on the nominations, the Golden Globes are once again skewing towards new shows. On the Drama side, both Lovecraft Country and Ratched are competing for their first seasons. Meanwhile, Comedy/Musical is stacked with new series, such as Emily in Paris, The Flight Attendant, The Great and Ted Lasso. Only Schitt’s Creek is not in its first season, though this is the first time it will be competing in the Comedy Series field at the Golden Globes. Schitt's Creek is also coming off Emmy domination for its final season.

So will the copious new series dominate the Golden Globes? Let’s look at the statistics...

 The Kominski Method was the latest show to win a Series Golden Globe in its first year on the air.

New Shows That Won Best Series (2010 - 2019) - 60% of All Winners

There doesn’t seem to be any skew towards drama or comedy when it comes to rewarding new shows. Both have seen six of the last 10 winners come from freshmen series. These shows can range from seismic hits (Homeland, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) to more niche shows (Mr. Robot, The Kominski Method). Thus, any of the new shows have a chance to surprise as long as they strike the fancy of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Only twice this decade has a show won Best Series twice (Homeland 2011 - 2012 and Glee 2009-2010). Among this year’s nominees, only The Crown is a previous winner. Both The Mandalorian and Ozark have never been nominated for Drama Series before. This doesn’t spell the end of the road for The Crown, especially since this season was perhaps its most high profile one yet. However, the Golden Globes are far less likely to repeat winners than the Emmys are. 

Gina Rodriguez won the Golden Globe for Lead Actress in a Comedy/Musical in 2014 for her role in Jane the Virgin.

New Shows That Won Best Lead Acting (2010 - 2019) - 63% of All Winners

New shows are slightly more likely to win an acting category than a series prize (63% vs. 60% likelihood). All of the four main acting categories had at least six wins for new shows, while Drama Actress had seven. This means we should see between two to three winners from various freshmen series this year.

There’s no differentiation between veteran actors and relative unknowns in these categories. As long as someone headlines a new series, they have a high chance at winning a Golden Globe. Stars like Kelsey Grammer (Boss) and Don Cheadle (House of Lies) were able to win lead acting prizes, despite their shows not earning series nominations. Meanwhile, rising stars like Ramy Youssef (Ramy), Richard Madden (Bodyguard) and Lena Dunham (Girls) all won for their breakout roles. Fame and show popularity aren’t as huge of factors at the Golden Globes (at least in the television categories). They like to plant their flag on new talent and claim discovery. This allows them to look in places the Emmys often don’t. While the Emmys have shown a negative bias against CW shows, the Golden Globes gave Gina Rodriguez (Jane the Virgin) and Rachel Bloom (Crazy Ex-Girlfriend) back-to-back wins for CW shows. 

This year marks the first year Schitt's Creek received any Golden Globe nominations. Now, it is the leader in nominations on the Comedy side.

Nomination Leader AND Series Winner (2010 - 2019) - 60% of All Winners

Here is where things look rather good for the winning chances of both The Crown and Schitt’s Creek. It’s not just that they are leaders in terms of nominations. They have a commanding margin against their competitors. The Crown has six nominations, while Schitt’s Creek has five. This is unheard of in the Comedy and Drama series races, where there’s usually more competition. The only other show this past decade with six nominations was Big Little Lies, which had four wins including Best Miniseries. The Crown has the highest nomination tally for a Drama Series since ER in 1997, which had seven nominations. Other shows with five nominations were The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (2 wins), Fargo (2 wins), Game Change (3 wins) and Glee (3 wins). All of these shows won their top prize.

Even though many were angry about Emily in Paris' nominations, will the Netflix series prevail in Best Comedy Series.

Now let’s look at the new shows competing in 2020:

Based on the statistics around nomination leaders, these new shows may face an uphill battle in the series categories. However, acting wins are surely likely. Using the 63% rate that new shows win an acting category, we can assume 2-3 winners will come from new shows. On the Drama side, the competition is lighter for Best Actor. This means the HFPA could reward a veteran (Pacino) or a marquee TV star (Rhys). Recently, the Globes gave The Americans a win for its final season, something not even the Emmys did. Residual love for The Americans could push Rhys towards a win.

For Comedy, we might also see a new series prevail in Lead Actor. Many do love The Great, specifically Nicholas Hoult’s hilariously arrogant emperor. However, the endearingly cheery Ted Lasso, led by Jason Sudeikis as the titular character, is my pick for the win; The Globes love optimism in their comedies.

Will Lead Actress go to a new show? Based on their nomination haul, Schitt’s Creek and The Crown are likely to win one or two more acting prizes a piece. Both shows are primarily anchored by their female leads - Catherine O’Hara and Olivia Colman, respectively. If they are going to rack up the wins anywhere, it is likely to be there. Among the new contenders, watch out for Sarah Paulson (Ratched). On the Comedy Actress side, voters looking to reward a new ingenue may find their votes split between Lily Collins (Emily in Paris), Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant), Elle Fanning (The Great) and Jane Levy (Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist). 

Jason Sudeikis (left) contends in the Lead Actor in a Comedy/Musical for Ted Lasso on Apple TV+.Final Predictions

Who do you think is going to win the Golden Globes on the TV side? Let us know in the comments below.

 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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