by Christopher James
Is Nomadland still looking like the clear winner for Best Picture?
Oscar nomination morning changes everything. What it takes to be nominated for an Oscar and win an Oscar are very different. As we enter this new phase for the Oscars, who is best set up for success on April 25th? The eight Best Picture nominees were all the most nominated movies of the year. Mank led with ten nominations. The rest of the nominees all had relatively good days, each earning six nominations except for Promising Young Woman, which received five nominations. Among non-Best Picture nominees, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom led with five nominations and News of the World with four nominations.
With the Oscar mainly coalescing around the eight Best Picture movies, which of them benefitted? Were any movies disappointments, despite a Best Picture nomination? Can anything beat current frontrunner Nomadland?
Who Is Up?
Promising Young Woman (5 nominations - Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing)
Even though it has the lowest nomination count of any Best Picture nominee this year, Promising Young Woman was the biggest winner of the bunch. Emerald Fennell was on the cusp of a Best Director nomination and her inclusion was historic. This marks the first year two women have been nominated in the same Best Directory category. Additionally, the film was a relative longshot in the Film Editing category, where flashier movies (Tenet, News of the World) or other Best Picture nominees (Minari, Mank) were expected to show up. This was one of only two movies that showed up in the four major categories that predict Best Picture (Director, Writing, Acting and Editing). Could this potentially upset Nomadland? It has a long way to go to do that. However, this strengthens its case for winning in Best Actress for Carey Mulligan and Best Original Screenplay.
Judas and the Black Messiah (6 nominations - Picture, Supporting Actor x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Song)
Who predicted LaKeith Stanfield's nomination in Supporting Actor? There are many reasons the nomination is surprising, chief among them being that apparently the movie has no leads and both titular characters are supporting. Still, this is a clear sign of love and support for the movie. Only Daniel Kaluuya’s Supporting Actor nomination was locked heading into this morning. The other five nominations were all hard fought and well earned. Without a directing or editing nomination, it makes it hard to imagine Judas and the Black Messiah surprising in Best Picture. However, this level of support solidifies Daniel Kaluuya’s spot as a frontrunner and positions it to possibly take home Original Song as well.
The Father (6 nominations - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design)
Is The Father a threat to win Best Picture? No. However, this answers a major question pundits were asking this season: Have voters seen The Father? Yes, and apparently many branches really loved it. The Film Editing and Production Design are really thoughtful, standout elements of the film. If voters were thoughtful enough to nominate it in these categories, it may pull out a surprise win, particularly in Film Editing. All of this support also strengthens Olivia Colman’s chances in Supporting Actress, which is a pretty wide open category for the win.
Who Is Even?
Nomadland (6 nominations - Picture, Director, Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing)
When someone is the frontrunner, the only place to go is down. Luckily, Nomadland showed up everywhere it needed to show up to stay the frontrunner. It was one of only two films to show up in all four major precursor fields (Director, Writing, Acting and Editing). Nominations for David Straithairn in Supporting Actor or for Best Sound would’ve put it out further ahead as the clear winner. Still, Nomadland is on track to win at least four categories and potentially all six.
Minari (6 nominations - Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score)
Nothing made me happier this morning than Seeing Lee Isaac Chung, Steven Yeun and Yuh-Jung Youn earn Oscar nominations. While it was a good day for Minari, it missed in some key categories that could’ve positioned it as a Best Picture spoiler. After receiving an ACE Eddie nomination, Minari could’ve shown up in Editing to make it a real threat in Best Picture. Similarly, nominations for Alan Kim in Supporting Actor, Cinematography or Original Song would have demonstrated a huge ground swell of support. Still, six nominations is incredibly strong for Minari and could help propel it to wins in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay, depending on how the next month of campaigning goes.
Sound of Metal (6 nominations - Picture, Actor (Ahmed), Supporting Actor (Raci), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound)
Similarly to Minari, it’s impressive and exciting how well Sound of Metal performed on Oscar nomination morning. Paul Raci was far from guaranteed in Best Supporting Actor and is a very welcome and well-deserved mention. Nominations in Original Screenplay and Film Editing also demonstrate widespread support for the film. The lack of a Best Director nomination keeps it from being a threat to win in Best Picture. However, this level of support, plus the snub for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in Best Picture, could make Riz Ahmed the dark horse in Best Actor. No matter what, the Oscars should already send out its Oscar for Best Sound.
Who Is Down?
The Trial of the Chicago Seven (6 nominations - Best Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Song)
Aaron Sorkin missing in Best Director really hurts The Trial of the Chicago Seven in the Best Picture race. There have been recent examples of movies winning Best Picture without a Best Director nomination (Green Book and Argo). However, these movies had clear wins coming from other categories. At one time, Sacha Baron Cohen was a major threat in Supporting Actor. Now, it’s Daniel Kaluuya’s Oscar to lose. Now, it’s looking to win Screenplay only, though Promising Young Woman and Minari will be tough competition. On its best day, Trial could’ve brought another actor into Supporting Actor and showed up in Director, Costume Design, Original Score and Sound. That it showed up with only six nominations means it may not be the threat we thought it was.
Mank (10 nominations - Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound)
It seems a bit counterintuitive to call the nomination leader an underperformer. Such is the anomaly that is Mank. The David Fincher biopic on Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz had initially felt like a potential Best Picture winner. However, once it was released many criticized the film for being too confusing or esoteric. Though it earned ten nominations, it missed in key categories like Best Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Visual Effects. The first two are key nominations to get on the way to Best Picture. Written by Fincher’s Father, Jack Fincher, there was a built in narrative to an Original Screenplay that should’ve made it an easy get. Missing here demonstrates that voters appreciate Mank more than they love it.