Emmy nominations are closer than you think! Our team is breaking down the top contenders in all the major races and highlighting some of our favorites over the next few weeks. We’ll begin with Best Drama Series.
At this point last year, production shutdowns weren’t really going to affect the Emmy Awards since so many of the series had already aired their seasons in the back half of 2019 or early 2020. This time around, things are very different, as many shows that would have theoretically been top contenders haven’t yet returned. Here’s the most jarring statistic: last year there were eleven shows that had been nominated the previous time they were eligible (seven made the cut again). This year, there are only three. Let’s break down the few returning shows that might be back and the wide array of possibilities that could fill the remaining slots…
RETURNING FAVOURITES
It’s a good bet that those three shows nominated last year will earn repeat bids. The Crown is a shoo-in, and it’s the likely winner even without any other nominees confirmed to be in the running. Though the regal drama, now in its fourth season, has won both the top Golden Globe and SAG prizes twice, it has yet to win this award. The Mandalorian is still hot, and season two should find a place in this category. The Handmaid’s Tale may not be earning reviews as strong for season four as its first two outings, but it made the cut last year for season three and is still popular and well-regarded. There are two other series that missed out last year for the first time but could easily return. Pose is wrapping its run after three seasons and is still very powerful, while This Is Us has one more to go but is a beloved series that, at least in my opinion, is as good as it ever was now that it’s in season five. Neither would be likely to make the cut if some of the shows that aren’t yet back – Better Call Saul, Killing Eve, Ozark, Stranger Things, or Succession – were in competition, but that just isn’t the case this time.
Looking at this grid of the last four years, that’s it for previous nominees. Bodyguard and Westworld haven’t yet announced premiere dates for their next iterations, and Dexter, which is returning after eight years off the air, is coming back this fall, making it a possibility for the 2022 Emmys. So what else could be here? The best place to start is always other awards shows that hand out year-end prizes. The only new series to score top notices at both the Globes and SAG was Lovecraft Country, though it didn’t earn any other bids from either group. Its Critics Choice haul, with nominations in every acting category, was more impressive, and the Emmy embrace of genre series like The Mandalorian and Stranger Things suggests that voters are okay with stylized period horror. Perry Mason is another possibility that didn’t perform as well as expected with those midseason precursors. Expect Bridgerton, a SAG ensemble nominee, to factor in to this race, while Ratched, which scored three Golden Globe bids, is a bit more of a wild card given that not everyone loves Ryan Murphy (I personally thought the show was excellent and can’t wait for season two).
RETURNING SHOWS THAT HAVE YET TO BE NOMINATED IN "DRAMA SERIES"
It took series like Killing Eve and Ozark until season two to first be nominated in this category. That might provide hope for The Boys, an Amazon hit that has only garnered more positive press for its second season. Another less likely possibility is For All Mankind, which earned even better reviews for its second outing than its first. Snowfall, now in its fourth season and already renewed for its fifth, could break through this year. And then there’s In Treatment, returning after more than a decade off the air. It earned six acting nominations but no top category bid back in the day and is probably more likely to repeat that feat for Emmy-winning star Uzo Aduba and other cast members than to show up here.
THE FRESHMAN CLASS
Aside from arguably Lovecraft Country, Perry Mason, and Ratched, none of this year's diverse crop of freshman series feel like surefire inclusions. The high profile of The Falcon and the Winter Soldier is sure to net it some votes, but I’m wondering whether more attention will be centered on another Marvel Cinematic Universe series, WandaVision, which is competing as a limited series. On top of that, Loki will be airing as voting is taking place, though it won’t be eligible until next year. The latter's prominence could either hinder the chances of both of the earlier shows or remind audiences how much they love their Marvel superheroes. Genre fans within the Television Academy might also choose to honor Netflix's Shadow and Bone, HBOMax's The Nevers, or HBO's Raised by Wolves (though I suspect those three will perform much better in the technical races.)
There are a few other freshman shows that might have enough supporters to rally for a place, but it’s hard to know. P-Valley has garnered great reviews on Starz. We Are Who We Are was a distinctly stylized and purposely slow-paced limited series that is inexplicably competing in this category since there are no plans for it to return. Industry was another effort that seemed like it might capture the zeitgeist of a young workforce bound for misery, but I’ve heard almost nothing about it since HBO Max dropped the entire season early midway through its scheduled weekly run on HBO. Lastly, there’s Big Sky, a midseason ABC drama that earned a renewal and, despite not being good at all, has enlisted formidable actors like Ted Levine and Michelle Forbes to anchor the back half of its recently-wrapped first season. It would be a peculiar choice for a nomination but one that would reflect network television ratings. That said, network ratings are hardly a factor for this category anymore as they haven't invited more than one broadcast network show to the party at a time in almost a decade.
At this point last year, I correctly guessed 6/8 of the eventual nominees, missing The Handmaid’s Tale and The Mandalorian, which are ironically two of the three eligible shows this year, for This Is Us and Westworld. Based on unconfirmed category placements, where we are now, and a presumed general lack of enthusiasm for Ryan Murphy projects , here’s my predicted list for this race:
PREDICTIONS
- Bridgerton
- The Crown
- The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
- The Handmaid’s Tale
- Lovecraft Country
- The Mandalorian
- Perry Mason
- This Is Us
What shows do you think will make the cut, and what are we underestimating in this wide-open year?