Tony Award Predictions. Are you watching this Sunday?
Thursday, September 23, 2021 at 4:30PM
Patrick Ball in Broadway and Stage, Jagged Little Pill, Lois Smith, Moulin Rouge!, Punditry, Slave Play, The Inheritance, Tina Turner, Tom Hiddleston, Tom Sturridge, Tony Awards, musicals

by Patrick Ball and Nathaniel R

Will SLAVE PLAY emerge as the big winner?

The first leaves of Autumn 2021 will soon fall and we're finally wrapping up the ‘19/'20 Broadway season. The long-awaited Tony Awards are here this weekend from 7-9 PM EST on Paramount+ (where they will hand out most of the statues including the acting prizes) followed by a concert celebration of sorts from 9-11 PM EST on CBS where they will hand out the final few awards. These pandemic postponed awards will be divided among a smaller slate of shows than usual, as the Broadway shutdown instituted in March of 2020 cut the eligibility window off early. Broadway shows are only now in the process of reopening. All this affected the way we awards enthusiasts are able to predict this year’s show as well. The normal circuit of precursor awards happened a year and a half ago, if they even happened at all, and final voting took place last March (!) well before any shows had reopening dates. So there isn’t much in the way of narratives or momentum to consider. But, hey, the odd and unprecedented nature of this awards cycle presents a challenge, and who doesn’t love a challenge? Follow along below as we try to make sense of it all and be sure to tune in on Sunday to see how it all pans out... 

Best Play

A tough battle between the London import The Inheritance and the buzzy but challenging Slave Play. The Inheritance had a more muted response in New York than across the pond, however, its substantial number of wins at both The Olivier Awards and The Drama Desks mixed with an appealing mixture of both classic and timely subject matter would seem to give it the edge. But, look out for Slave Play. Jeremy O. Harris is a creative talent with a rising profile and voters hoping to vote for a piece that pushes the medium, and industry forward, will send their votes its way. But will they be enough? I think so. - PB

I don't even think this is a tough battle; Slave Play will triumph. I personally loved The Inheritance but it struggled to live up to the cross-the-pond hype (overall) and I think its two part nature didn't help as it could have trimmed a bit and  been one long play with two intermissions. - NR

Best Musical

Both Jagged and Moulin Rouge had similar tasks, to take a celebrated property and bring it to life onstage in a way that felt new. Both received mixed reviews but were on their way to becoming hits before the shutdown. But, Jagged is the nomination leader and the source album is beloved. I think it has the edge. - PB

I think it's Jagged Little Pill (which seemed to benefit from low expectations). I feel like it has more passionate fans as a theatrical production whereas Moulin Rouge's obsessive fans are still film-derived. - NR

Tom Hiddleston in BETRAYAL

Best Revival of a Play

A split decision. Patrick thinks this will be A Soldier's Play but I think the buzz for the actors in Betrayal will help it cross the finish line. Frankie and Johnny, a rare flop for Audra McDonald, doesn't have a chance. - NR

Book of a Musical 

Though Jagged’s book is its most controversial element, Cody is a well-liked Oscar winner and should walk away with the prize and be halfway to the EGOT. - PB

 

Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics Written for the Theatre) 

Because most of the season’s upcoming musicals weren’t able to open before the shutdown, for this category all five nominated scores come from Plays. Though the talented Paul Englishsby’s moody and moving work in The Inheritance is tempting, I’m thinking it’s Christopher Nightingale. A Christmas Carol has music ingrained in its DNA in a way most plays do not. - PB

Direction of a Play 

Cromer, Daldry, and Leon all have Tonys, and though Lloyd’s production of Betrayal was strongly reviewed, I’m going with O’Hara for his gutsy and vibrant staging of Slave Play. - PB

I'm guessing the name recognition of Daldry helps here and he wins again. A little something for The Inheritance since it's going to lose the big prizes. - NR

 

Direction of a Musical

If we're voting on degree of difficulty and scale, this is Timbers to lose - NR 

Lead Actor in a Play

In one of the most competitive acting categories, we’ve got veterans grappling with Hollywood stars Gyllenhaal and Hiddleston, and young talent Burnap representing a Best Play front runner. My money is on Hiddleston who did great work just as his career is hitting a peak and has remained visible through his work on the Loki Disney+ series. But a number of these guys could get some votes and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a split see Barford or Burnap take home a prize. - PB

Really really tough to call. I'm going out on quite a limb and suggest that Tom Sturridge finally collects gold, despite his co-star siphoning off some votes. Sturridge doesn't have as lauded of an onscreen career as Hiddleston and Gyllenhaal but people really love him each time out on stage. - NR

Lead Actress in a Play

Rising talent Kalukango is representing the bigger title, and though Laura Linney, on her fifth nomination without a win (and for a solo play at that), is knocking on the door, I suspect this one goes to Parker in her celebrated Broadway return. - PB

Lead Actor in a Musical

Because of the unusual nature of this season and its eligibility period, Moulin Rouge’s Aaron Tveit turned out to be the only nominee in this category. To be eligible for a lead acting category, a performer must be billed over the title in the opening night Playbill, or their production must petition them. Tina and Jagged, both female focused shows, chose to place their male characters in the featured category. There was one additional male actor eligible, Chris McCarrell of The Lightning Thief, but the poorly received show earned zero nominations. Now, Tveit isn’t automatically awarded the Tony, rules state he still has to receive 60% of the vote. And while Tveit is a gifted vocalist and was overdue for a nomination, this is hardly his most lauded role. Still though, he’s well liked and if only for optics alone, I say he gets it. - PB

 

Lead Actress in a Musical

Warren, an absolute fireball in the role of Tina Turner, has been knocking at the door of Broadway superstardom for a couple seasons now. And though Olivo was fabulous in Moulin Rouge, she already has a Tony and publicly left in show in solidarity with this past year’s social justice reckoning. Warren will take this one. - PB

I think this is going to two time nominee Warren as well (who won the Drama Desk Award) and surely always was going to be Warren. I'll admit I dont understand Olivo's decision to quit Moulin Rouge! The Musical in protest over the Scott Rudin scandals; Rudin had no connection whatsoever to Moulin Rouge and she has never worked with him so it would be like someone at, say, Universal or Paramount quitting their movie career over Harvey Weinstein's behavior at Miramax and the Weinstein Co. Why immolate your own career in protest of someone else's terrible behavior career somewhere else in your same general industry? Speaking out is admirable of course but quitting your own career?

Featured Actor in a Play

Patrick is going with Paul Hilton here for strong work as E.M. Forster in The Inheritance but my bet is David Alan Grier who has the best role in A Soldier's Play (which many of you will know as A Soldier's Story for the 1984 film version). - NR 

Featured Actress in a Play

Is this wishful thinking that we're predicting Lois Smith? After 11 Broadway shows and 3 Tony nominations it is long past time to honor this 90 year old brilliant veteran. Not to mention the small fact that she was absolutely incredible, taking The Inheritance to its deeply emotional finish line. - NR

Featured Actor in a Musical

No doubt about it, this one is going to Burstein, phenomenal in the role of impresario extraordinaire Harold Zidler. - PB

Burstein in a landslide. Not only is he perfect in the production but he's long overdue to win a Tony (this is his SEVENTH nomination). He's great in everything  plus he survived a very very scary and well publicized bout with COVID-19 (Moulin Rouge was one of the hardest hit shows) so even if he hadn't earned the Tony in performance (he did) he'd have a shot on sentiment alone. - NR

 

Featured Actress in a Musical

A curiously underdiscussed category this time around... but then what category isn't given the strange emptiness of the season. Patrick says Patten so I'll co-sign - NR

Best Choreography

So You Think You Can Dance alum Tayeh should waltz away with this award for her vibrant and passionate work in Moulin Rouge, one of the production’s best elements. - PB

slave play

Scenic Design in a Play

Scenic Design in a Musical

Best Costume Design in a Play

Best Costume Design in a Musical

Best Lighting Design in a Play

Image via "Out with Cameron"

Lighting Design in a Musical

Best Sound Design of a Play

Sound Design in a Musical

Best Orchestrations

 

Will you be watching and if you're near NYC when do you plan on returning to see a Broadway show? 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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