SAG "Surprise" Predictions
Monday, January 10, 2022 at 9:02AM
NATHANIEL R in Belfast, CODA, Dune, Punditry, SAG, West Side Story 2021

by Nathaniel R

Will the size and stardom of DON'T LOOK UP make it a SAG favourite?

Because this season has had so little drama, let's have a little fun with punditry instead of being concerned with being correct. Let's predict one surprise in ALL of the Screen Actors Guild movie categories. This was hard to do as the natural instinct is to be "as correct / as prescient" as possible and there obviously won't be a surprise in EVERY category. That just doesn't happen.

But it was the challenge we set ourselves, so here we go...


OUTSTANDING ACTRESS


Chastain? In all likelihood we'll see Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and not Hudson, named and we'll be happy about that (as Jess is utterly fabulous in that movie and underrewarded in general). But for the sake of argument and knowing that SAG often throws curveballs and that Jennifer Hudson has been sort of hanging around the edges of the conversation all year and has as traditionally baity an awards role as Kidman, Spencer, or Chastain. Let's go ahead and predict that surprise switcheroo. The other name besides Hudson that we were tempted to predict as the "surprise" because it would be extremely SAG-like and everyone would say "I guess it makes sense" in retrospect: Emilia Jones in CODA.

The other contenders: Optend not to predict Jodie Comer because SAG hasn't even been that interested in her in her genius Emmy-winning performance in Killing Eve. Opted not to predict Alana Haim and Rachel Zegler due to SAG's overall unfamiliarity with them. Opted not to predict Penelope Cruz because, worthy SAG inclusions like Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone aside, SAG often ignores great subtitled performances and Parallel Mothers was a late in the year arrival and could have used another full month to rev up (at least in terms of SAG since they vote a full month earlier than the Academy does).

OUTSTANDING ACTOR


WTF... Garfield!!! SAG is more generous with child actors than Oscar and we wanted to predict Jude Hill just for fun though we think it's a terrible choice for a 'best of the year' citation. He's cute but... it's an acting award! In all likelihood, though, this is the category that feels least likely to surprise. It was agony to try to decide who Hill (or some other surprise) would boot from the list: SAG traditional really loves Dinklage and Denzel; Smith is obviously not being left behind; Cumberbatch had a spectacular year. In the end we thought Garfield getting the boot would cause the most online chaos so, for the sake of having fun with these predictions, out he goes!

Other possibilities: If for some reason the nominating committee didn't get to their screeners of either Cyrano or Macbeth, we can see Leonardo DiCaprio showing up for Don't Look Up  to replace Dinklage or Denzel. Everyone else feels far-fetched (for some reason) even if they shouldn't be like Nicolas Cage in Pig, Clifton Collins Jr in Jockey,  or Joaquin Phoenix in C'mon C'mon. 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS


No Balfe? We know that doesn't make sense at all given the Hill prediction but sometimes things don't make sense in awardage! Remember when Amanda Seyfried didn't show up for Mank just last season at SAG despite feeling lockish all year for an Oscar nod? We think SAG is going to go for CODA in a big way, so...

Other strong possibilities: Listen it's a bloodbath in supporting and obviously we might see Ann Dowd in Mass, Rita Moreno in West Side Story, and/or Caitríona Balfe in Belfast replacing any of the ladies above! Hell Rebecca Ferguson could be a surprise for Dune if they really fall for that movie (though we think it's best bet are the two group categories: Stunts and Cast.)

A surprise we'd absolutely cheer: Martha Plimpton in Mass or Kathryn Hunter in Tragedy of Macbeth 

A shock that would maybe not read as shocking in retrospect: Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley since she steals the movie, Dakota Johnson in The Lost Daughter from Olivia Colman coattails and her own celebrity, Meryl Streep in Don't Look Up because awards bodies always feel duty-bound to honor her. 

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Why Bernthal over Dornan? Just because we promised a "surprise" prediction in each category and Bernthal has worked with everyone and we think they'll embrace King Richard. Though we feel the same way about Belfast so perhaps excluding Dornan is dumb.

Would not be surprising at all though it would be super annoying: Someone from Don't Look Up -- either Mark Rylance or Jonah Hill. To be clear its not that we hate the movie but it's just not a "Most Outstanding" or "Best" situation. 

Surprises we'd love to see happen Mike Faist in West Side Story or Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza

A shock that would maybe not read a shock in retrospect: Jesse Plemons in Power of the Dog, since he is widely admired and would make such a fun package deal with the rest of the cast including his fiancée Kirsten Dunst. 

STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE


No Shang-Chi? WTF??? Last's year's bizarre Trial of the Chicago 7 nomination in this category reminds us that  any film with strong Best Picture momentum might show up. Though this category is young it tends to be 3 action blockbusters plus 2 dramas with an action scene or three in them. Since we think Dune and No Way Home are locks here given their hit status in a year without "hits" in the normal abundant sense, that doesn't leave a lot of room for the other action blockbusters and we've opted to predict Spider-Man for its recency rather than Shang-Chi.  We're predicting West Side Story just for the hell of it. Most of intense physicality is dance rather than stunt related but maybe the warm-up rumble in the opening or the "rumble" climax will impress them. Lord knows it's way more impressive as stunts/action than anything in Chicago 7.

Other distinct possibilities:  Shang-Chi obviously (and so worthy!), but also Cyrano and Tragedy of Macbeth if they decide to go for the sword-fighting sequences. 

What would be a Trial of Chicago 7 level WHAT? inclusion: Maybe Licorice Pizza for its backwards driving and that motorcycle scene?

OUTSTANDING CAST OF A MOTION PICTURE 

WHAT COUNTS A SURPRISE? 
Maybe Dune wouldn't be a surprise but this is always difficult to predict. We know that very large star-filled casts are like a drug to them regardless of the collective quality of the performances or any actual ensemble acting therein (which boosts about 10 movies here). WE know that Best Picture heat really matters, too, even if the casts are small (which boosts another 5 or so movies not in the first group). Though they don't normally warm to sci-fi, maybe Dune is the movie this year that most actors wish they were actually in? 

Here are SIX other films that feel like true threats as well.

alternates


 

 

Wishful thinking? We hope that quality of group interaction in terms of cohesiveness and collective interdependent brilliance will matter. That's why we're predicting Mass though we still worry that's wishful thinking. 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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