The Film Experience

by Nathaniel R

Do people remember that the original AVATAR triumphed at the Globes. Might AVATAR THE WAY OF WATER repeat?

The Golden Globe nominations arrive on Monday morning. The HFPA has been (mostly) dormant since their broadcast banishment but they hope to be back on the mainstream audience's radar this year. They've been doing internal reforms and recruiting new members, so predicting them is theoretically a whole new ballgame.

Both Tom Cruise and Brendan Fraser have both been outspoken anti-Globe celebrities and the Globes have also been taken to task for racial biases. Either of these things might play into voting or they might not. Because you need a guiding principal for wide open contests like this, the one I've chosen is assuming they'll love Elvis (a very Globes-friendly film) and Banshees of The Inisherin the most. Who knows how they'll vote but let's try to predict anyway. But let's try anyway...

PICTURE DRAMA	PICTURE COMEDY/ MUSICAL

• Avatar Way of the Water • Elvis • The Fabelmans • She Said • Top Gun Maverick • Women Talking Not many people seem to remember this but Avatar won both Picture and Director at the Globes before losing at the Oscars. NOTE: In an earlier draft I forgot Women Talking so we're predicting an extra nominee here which they sometimes do! Potential Spoilers: Empire of Light, Tár, Till, Woman King	• Babylon • Banshees of Inisherin • Everything Everywhere All At Once • Glass Onion • The Menu Potential Surprise: Mrs Harris Goes To Paris, Cha Cha Real Smooth Potential Spoilers: Triangle of Sadness, White Noise, Amsterdam, Hustle, Spirited, and Bros
LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA	LEAD ACTRESS, COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Cate Blanchett, Tár • Olivia Colman, Empire of Light • Ana De Armas, Blonde • Danielle Deadwyler, Till • Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway Potential Spoilers: Since I'm going for TWO surprises -- Ana De Armas and Jennifer Lawrence -- that leaves out probably safer bets like Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)	• Margot Robbie, Babylon • Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise • Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu • Emma Thompson, Good Luck To You... • Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere Potential Spoiler: Lesley Manville (Mrs Harris Goes to Paris) Longshot: Bella Ramsey (Catherine Called Birdy)
LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA	LEAD ACTOR, COMEDY/MUSICAL

• Austin Butler, Elvis • Tom Cruise, Top Gun Maverick • Brendan Fraser, The Whale • Hugh Jackman, The Son • Bill Nighy, Living Betting that they'll pointedly ignore Tom Cruise and Brendan Fraser's very public anti-Globe statements and nominate them anyway, hoping and betting that most of Hollywood wants to party again and forgive them. Potential Spoilers: Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)	• Diego Calva, Babylon • George Clooney, Ticket to Paradise • Daniel Craig, Glass Onion • Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin • Ralph Fiennes, The Menu Potential Spoilers: Adam Sandler (Hustle), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) Long Shots: Ryan Reynolds (Spirited), Brad Pitt (Bullet Train) and Billy Eichner (Bros)
OTHER CATEGORIES

SUPPORTING ACTRESS	SUPPORTING ACTOR
• Jessie Buckley, Women Talking • Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin • Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere... • Claire Foy, Women Talking • Janelle Monae, Glass Onion Potential Spoilers: There are so many possibilities but if they go celebrity: Anne Hathaway (Armageddon Time), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Angela Bassett (Wakanda Forever) or Jean Smart (Babylon) could surprise. Long Shots: if they're feeling critics rave vibes then they might choose Nina Hoss (Tar) or Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)	• Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere... • Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin • Tom Hanks, Elvis • Brad Pitt, Babylon • Ben Whishaw, Women Talking Potential Spoilers: Since I'm betting on a tom hanks surprise I had to jettison the best supporting option of Barry Keoghan (done in by Category Fraud!), and/or Paul Dano (Fabelmans), and Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) Long Shots: Mark Rylance (Bones and All), Edward Norton (Glass Onion)
DIRECTOR	SCREENPLAY
• Cameron, Avatar Way of the Water • Luhrmann, Elvis • McDonagh, Banshees of Inisherin • Polley, Women Talking • Spielberg, Fabelmans Potential Spoilers: Other possibilities abound including Chazelle (Babylon), Luhrmann (Elvis), Prince-Bythewood (Woman King), Field (Tár)	• The Banshees of Inisherin • Everything Everywhere All At Once • The Fabelmans • Tár • Women Talking Potential Spoilers: anything since they combine Adapted and Original here...

INTERNATIONAL FILM	ANIMATED FILM
• All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) • Corsage (Austria) • Decision to Leave (South Korea) • EO (Poland) • RRR (India) Potential Spoiler: It could literallly be anything. They are not limited to just the Oscar submission -hence the RRR prediction.	• Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish • Sea Beast • Turning Red Potential Spoilers: Bad Guys, Lightyear, My Father's Dragon, Charlotte
SCORE	SONG
• Babylon • Banshees of Inisherin • Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio • Tár • Women Talking Potential Spoilers: The Fabelmans, Women Talking, Empire of Light, She Said, Avatar Way of the Water, White Noise	• Black Panther Wakana Forever "Lift Me Up" • Don't Worry Darling "With You All The Time" • Top Gun Maverick "Hold My Hand" • Turning Red "Nobody Like U" • Where the Crawdads Sing "Carolina" Potential Spoilers: Anything... but they love the big celebrities in this category hence our very celebrity focused predictions. Pinocchio and RRR feel like better bets with Oscar than here

WHAT ARE YOU BETTING ON? How wrong do you think these predictions will be?