Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category as we head into the precursors. Here's Juan Carlos Ojano and Mark Brinkerhoff...
CARLOS: I've learned my lesson about the Original score category. It defaults to usual suspects. On the one hand, their loyalty to certain composers gives the opportunity for films to be nominated even when they're not Best Picture nominees. They don't even have to be Best Picture-adjacent (Parallel Mothers, Isle of Dogs, Passengers). On the other the hand this category can be a lazy checklist of familiar names in the way other categories are a lazy checklist of Best Picture heavyweights. Are you feeling the same way?
MARK: Yes. Often times the familiar “in the club” composers get shortlisted. Considering The Fablemans is positioned to score overall and considering his own track record, we can surely reserve one spot for John Williams...
Academy favorites Alexander Desplat (Pinocchio), Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross (Empire of Light), and last year’s winner Hans Zimmer (The Son) seem like no brainers for the finalist list , but surely one of those films—and scores—will miss the actual nominations. Where things get (potentially) interesting is with dynamos like Terence Blanchard (The Woman King) and Hildur Guðnadóttir (TÁR), both of whom, like Reznor & Ross, have *other* film scores in possible contention this year. But I can’t imagine one of the nominees won’t be first-timer Son Lux (Everything Everywhere All at Once) given the film’s across-the-board, breakout success.
Then again, we have Avatar: The Way of Water and Babylon which are brand new threats. Babylon may be over predicted but don’t you agree, we should never count out *any* crafts in a new James Cameron film, even without James Horner (RIP) this time around? What blindspots am I missing?
CARLOS: With Williams (The Fabelmans) the question is if he could actually win; He'll be nominated. Desplat seems to be the most likely # 2 given his own Oscar history and the reception to Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio. I'm also starting to feel confident with Guðnadóttir, but actually for Women Talking instead of TÁR. Still not sure if this would actually cost her a nomination or if she could earn double nods, given the strength of the two films. I think I'll actually disagree a bit with your take on Babylon and say that Justin Hurwitz is very much in play. I can see the film becoming a juggernaut in the tech categories.
While the other contenders you mentioned are also in the hunt, they aren't the only ones. We might also see She Said (Nicholas Britell), The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell), White Noise (Danny Elfman), Till (Abel Korzeniowski), Nope (Michael Abels), The Batman (Michael Giacchino), or Bones and All (Reznor & Ross) factor in. The 15-wide finalist list uually includes at least one non-English langauge film so I'll have to throw in some other titles too: All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann), Bardo (Bryce Dessner and Alejandro G. Iñárritu), and Decision to Leave (Jo Yeong-wook). Maybe RRR (M. M. Keeravani) too?
Are you feeling any of these could be closer to getting nominated than the "frontrunners?
MARK: Yeong-wook for Decision to Leave immediately jumps out. I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Yeong-wook short-listed (and deservedly so).
It's anyone's guess at this point, but the underrecognized Burwell *was* nominated for Martin McDonagh's last film, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. He's definitely in the hunt again this year, as is Hurwitz for Babylon, that's true. One score I've hardly seen mentioned is Marcelo Zarvos' for the late-breaking Emancipation, which Variety covered recently. Despite composing for Academy-friendly films that got a lot of Oscar nominations elsewhere (such as Fences)—or, regrettably, none at all (like The Door in the Floor)—he's yet to be nominated, though Emancipation seems to have more going against it than for it. Still, it sure would be nice to see some bracing shake-ups in this category, with new(er) blood and more diverse, first-time nominees.
What would be your dream scenario this year?
CARLOS: My dream scenario would combine these four things:
a) that the nominees would not just be composed of Best Picture nominees. Inasmuch as I love the expanded ballot era, one of its major drawbacks is that the technical categories tend to default to the nominees; Less movies are statistically getting nominated.
b) that we have more nominees from non-English language films. World cinema is producing some of the most exciting stuff we have in film right now and I hope that energy is also reflected in the quality of the nominees.
c) that we have a more eclectic mix of music genres.
d) that we have new blood. I mean, come on.
So how do I mix all of these? I have no idea. I loved the scores for Blonde (Nick Cave & Warren Ellis) and Causeway (Alex Somers) but I think they are extreme longshots. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux) is a wild explosion of imagination and the film is poised to be a Best Picture frontrunner, but I wonder if they will sidestep the score. I have flashbacks of Mad Max: Fury Road's explosive scoring (Junkie XL) where it got a whopping ten nominations but still no Original Score nod.
How about you? What are your personal hopes for this category?
MARK: Blonde, yes! I realize (most) people hated it, but it *was* gorgeously scored (and photographed), which should stand on its own merits. Cave and Ellis *would* be worthy nominees. I, too, suspect that some of the more outstanding elements of EEAAO may get blanked by Oscar; hopefully Lux will break through because…why the hell not?!
At this point, with a few titles still awaiting release, I’m gunning for Lux, Yeong-wook, Burwell and Guðnadóttir, despite residual "blech" for the latter’s Oscar-winning Joker score.
In a perfect world, we’d have aglobal set of composers of diverse backgrounds, styles, ethnicities, genders, races, etc. But what *will* it take for the Academy to get there?
CARLOS: Yeah, the Music branch is gonna Music branch. For now, my predicted five are:
- Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
- The Fabelmans (John Williams)
- Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)
- She Said (Nicholas Britell)
- Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
I feel confident about 2-3 of these, but who knows. What's your five?
MARK: At this point I’m leaning toward:
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
- The Fabelmans (John Williams)
- Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)
- TÁR (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
and no guts no glory... - RRR (M. M. Keeravani)
So our predictions match on only two films and Nathaniel's predictions don't match either of ours completely. Wide open race? We shall see!
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