The Film Experience

Here are Chris James and Eric Blume to discuss one of Oscar's trickiest categories, Best Supporting Actor:

ERIC: Chris, so happy to be reunited with you, this time to discuss the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. This category is always one of the weirdest and often the worst... I'm still not done being angry that arguably-bad Troy Kotsur beat the genius work of Kodi Smit-McPhee last year. But that's how this award often goes.

Let's start with our "locks". I think we have two: Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan. And that's great news, because they're both splendid performances and either would be one of the best winners in this category for the last decade. Gleeson is the embodiment of tragicomedy, and Quan finds that perfect note between farce and realism in an incredibly playful piece of acting. How do you feel about Gleeson and Quan personally, and would you agree they're locks?

CHRIS: Completely agree that this normally is one of the more dull categories. However, this year's contenders are exciting and varied (even if a good number of them are participating in category fraud).

Speaking of category fraud - Brendan Gleeson's nomination is pretty secure for The Banshees of Inisherin. While he is always a pleasure to see, I'm in the minority on not loving the performance. Of all the characters in the film, I never felt like I understood Colm's behavior or motivation. It's as if Gleeson was in service of the films metaphor rather than in building a character. Of the supporting actors, I much prefer Barry Keoghan, who will likely make it to the Oscars after Globes and Critics Choice nominations. He starts as a grating bit of comic relief only to take the audience by surprise and become the beating heart of the film.

Ke Huy Quan is also definitely at the top of the race and my current predicted winner. It's not just that he has a great narrative: forgotten child star turned Oscar contender. Quan delivers a heartfelt performance as our guide through the complicated web of the multiverse.

Other than those three actors, I think the final two spots are completely up for grabs. The Fabelmans would love for both of their men to fill up the category - Critics Choice nominees Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Both have very different pros and cons, despite both starring in a likely Best Picture threat. Dano does a great job as the quiet, steadfast patriarch of the titular amily. There's interesting shreds of vulnerability within the cracks of his character, which contrasts well against Michelle Williams' over-the-top performance. Speaking of loud, Judd Hirsch may only be in the film for less than 10 minutes, but he barrels in as a force of nature. Dano is getting more of a campaign, but I could see Hirsch eking out the nomination in the end. What do you think?

ERIC: I agree that Keoghan will make the final slate...it's a captivating performance that's so open-hearted and naked that actors will really respond to it. I'm bigger on Gleeson than you are...I felt his stoic terror staring towards death, and the brutish inability to do anything but to push away. I think he'll give Quan a run for his money for the win, especially since he is extraordinarily well-respected by the British contingent who will want to see an under-rewarded actor get some due. If Quan wins, he won't be walking to it.

I wish I could hop on the bandwagon for either actor from The Fabelmans. I always find Paul Dano to be a dull actor, someone with little creen charisma or gravitas, often making entry-level acting school choices. I think The Fabelmans would be so much more interesting and complex had Spielberg cast another actor who could have made the arguments and strengths of Dano's character equally compelling as Williams' mom. And I don't see what all the fuss is about with Judd Hirsch. It's a broad, borscht-belt, lovable-old-man performance. Granted, Hirsch goes into the movie with every intent to steal it, which I admire in an actor. He was never known for his subtlety at the height of his career, so I guess I can respect that it's a fitting career-topper for him. But I think at the end of the day he will land like Bradley Cooper's performance in Licorice Pizza... in sixth or seventh place.

As for the other two slots, I think Brian Tyree Henry will be the "shocker" nominee when they announce. He's a well-loved character actor that the community has been rooting for now for several years, and this is the role and the performance that gave him enough meaty stuff to do to warrant the nomination. I think people will check out the movie due to its free presence on Apple and because of Jennifer Lawrence (who I think could also be a big surprise on nomination morning). If they watch it, they'll vote for him.

I think the fifth nominee will also come from the British contingency, and either Ben Whishaw or Micheal Ward will be the fifth nominee. I think there's a chance Empire of Light may catch on over the holidays (equal chance it will never catch on, but I'm trying to keep things interesting here!), and if so both Olivia Colman and Ward could land nominations. Whishaw remains one of our best actors, and despite the Emmy a few years ago is remarkably under-awarded. I think it's a matter of how well Women Talking catches on in the next few weeks; if it does, he's in.

Beyond these gentlemen, who else do you think stands a chance of getting in this year?

CHRIS: I would love for Brian Tyree Henry to make it into the final five this year for Causeway. It's such a beautiful performance from an actor who should be an Oscar nominee by now. What that campaign needs is word of mouth, which continues to grow. Since the expansion of the Best Picture field, they usually only choose acting nominees from movies that are in the Best Picture conversation. If we were still in the 1990s or 2000s, Henry's performance would have an easier time becoming the sole nomination for his film. Unfortunately, I think the film's profile is too low. Hopefully more critics groups will rally behind the movie and performance.

It would be lovely if Ben Whishaw were to be nominated for Women Talking. His quiet stenographer adds so much to the high stakes conversation between the women of three families. He's reacting and learning as they debate. By the end, it's his growth that packs a resounding punch. If the film does well in other categories, he feels like the most likely fifth nominee. Even by art house standards, Empire of Light is a true blue flop. While Micheal Ward brings some wide-eyed optimism to the film, his character feels underwritten and underplayed. I'd count him out of this race.

Something tells me that we shouldn't count out Eddie Redmayne for The Good Nurse. Yes, my point around Brian Tyree Henry stands, it's hard to be a lone supporting nominee for a movie with no other Oscar heat. But, for better or worse, Eddie Redmayne checks off more boxes. His performance is very large and creepy, full of nervous ticks and darting eyes. The movie was seen enough, with the powerful Netflix marketing machine behind it. Plus, he's a former winner with a track record.

Speaking of former winners, could we be discounting Brad Pitt for Babylon? People will be seeing the movie and he's a very prominent supporting character with lots of big moments. I'd argue most of those big moments aren't good and Pitt is coasting on charm alone. However, Brad Pitt's charm is boundless enough to coast on. There's also the dark possibility that Elvis fever sweeps the Academy and Tom Hanks winds up here for his cracked out gonzo personification of Colonel Tom Parker. What do you think?

ERIC: I'll risk the ire of many of a site-reader, but I'll defend Redmayne's performance in The Good Nurse. He does a lovely job of hollowing himself out to be a bit of a human void, and you get a full sense of his awkwardness and lack of social skills in building a relationship with Chastain's character. He makes interesting choices that help avoid easy categorization, and his scene work with Chastain is just aces. For my money, he's doing far more interesting work than both of The Fabelmans guys put together. Still, the movie is so minor and I can see most people skipping it.

All the points for Pitt in Babylon are well taken, and I do see a world where he gets in. He's always fun and exciting when he goes into an auteur's film rather than making a movie star project, and he still has an amazing amount of goodwill in Hollywood. I'm not as confident as everyone else that Elvis is going to do well on nomination morning, and if Hanks couldn't get nominations for a far superior performances in Captain Phillips and Sully, I don't see him scoring here for such a hambone antagonist role.

It seems to me the only other possibility would be a shockeroo nomination along the lines of Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals: a well-loved actor's actor in a film not largely on the radar. The three most real possibilities here would be Mark Rylance for Bones and All, and either Jeremy Strong or Anthony Hopkins for Armageddon Time? Anyone we're forgetting? Who are your picks?

CHRIS: It's always fun to think of the Nocturnal Animals type nominee. Mark Rylance definitely fits the bill for Bones and All. He's the over-the-top weirdo in a strange, grotesque love story. My mileage on Bones and All varies based on the scene. While I appreciate Rylance's bold swing, I'm not necessarily on board with it. Yet, if you love the film, you likely are a fan of his go for broke cannibal. There is a longshot that Anthony Hopkins gets in on name alone. I loved him in Armageddon Time, but the film's profile faded as fast as he departs from the movie. My strange choice as a possibility to show up out of nowhere would be Daniel Bruhl for All Quiet on the Western Front. The movie performed incredibly well with the shortlists, maybe the remake of the 1930 Best Picture winner could be a contender above the line? Maybe we're looking at the wrong person from Babylon? Perhaps Tobey Maguire's deranged scene stealer could be the nominee. I'm really swinging for the fences, but isn't that fun?

There are plenty of people I'm rooting for that don't have a chance in hell. For example, Justin Long takes over Barbarian and gives it a fresh and hilarious spin. I'd put him on my ballot. One of the best ensembles of the year was the boys of Fire Island. However, best in show was Bowen Yang, who managed to break my heart and put it back together with his wistful portrayal of Howie, the Jane of their Pride and Prejudice group.

Of the men in the conversation, I'm in the tank for both Quan and Keoghan. I'm pulling for Ben Whishaw to make it in as well. His role is incredibly tricky and he manages to deliver without being the lone male distraction. Without further ado, my predicted five are:

Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

I'm beyond not confident in slots 4 and 5. I think someone from The Fabelmans gets in and then the last spot is up for grabs. I may switch it to Brian Tyree Henry or Brad Pitt moments after hitting send. What do you think?

ERIC: Justin Long! Wouldn't that be fun? I like Albrecht Schuch's sad and urgent turn in All Quiet on the Western Front as an undersung performance. But I agree that those last two slots are fully up for grabs. My prediction looks like this at the moment:

Gleeson
Keoghan
Ke Huy Quan
Ben Whishaw
Brian Tyree Henry

But I could easily swap out Pitt, Redmayne, or Rylance for those last two for sure. Surprises await!

Nathaniel's Supporting Actor Predictions

Best Director - with Eric Blume & Glenn Dunks
Best Original Song - with Eurocheese & Baby Clyde
Best Original Score - with Mark & Juan Carlos
Best Cinematography - with Eric and Chris
Best Makeup & Hairstyling - with Nathaniel & Elisa
Best Film Editing - with Ben & Nick
Best Costume Design - with Cláudio & Elisa
Best Production Design - with Eurocheese & Nick