Final Emmy Predictions: Drama Series and Acting Categories
Friday, July 8, 2022 at 10:39PM
Christopher James in Best Drama Series, Drama Lead Actor, Drama Lead Actress, Drama Supporting Actor, Drama Supporting Actress, Emmys, Predictions

By: Chris James, Abe Friedtanzer, Cláudio Alves, and Nathaniel Rogers

Can Succession win a second Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series this year?

The Drama field at the Emmys is ripe for change. With most of last year's big contenders out of the running due to timing (The Handmaid's Tale and The Crown did not air new episodes this year) or shows ending (Lovecraft Country, Pose), there is plenty of room for newbies. The main question is, will past Emmy juggernauts, like Succession and Better Call Saul, return in full force or will new shows, like Squid Game and Severance, fill the void.? Over the next couple of days, Team Experience will also be providing predictions for the comedy and limited series categories as well. Nominations for the 74th annual Emmy Awards will be announced at 8:30am on Tuesday, July 12th by Melissa Fumero and JB Smoove.

Find out who Team Experience predicts will be nominated for the Drama categories after the jump...

First, some overall thoughts from the team.

Abe: Even though only two shows from last year’s Drama Series list are eligible again, there are five high-profile series back after taking a season off. While it’s likely to be a battle between defending champion Succession and new sensation Squid Game in most of the categories, watch out for another new show like Severance that might be able to upset and score big. It’s also hard to know how well returning shows like Stranger Things and Killing Eve will perform, and whether Emmy validation will match fan enthusiasm. And then there’s Better Call Saul, which may still underperform ahead of its final round of episodes, which premiere the day before nominations and will be eligible for next year’s awards. I’m not predicting it in any major categories, but I would be absolutely delighted if Loki got some much-deserved recognition.

Chris: The Emmys seem to love less shows every year. That’s what makes this year particularly interesting. Last year was dominated by The Handmaid’s Tale and The Crown, both of which are not eligible this year. Based on experience, the Emmys build out their categories by nominating more and more people from shows they are already watching. So what will have four or more acting nominations? Succession seems like the most appropriate answer. However, Stranger Things is one of the obsessions that is most hot at the time of voting. They might also catch the actress-sexual bug and nominate many of the actresses from Yellowjackets.

Cláudio : One of my big questions this year is how the changing tides of ubiquity will affect the voting, especially regarding recency bias. For instance, the Stranger Things' split season meant that the vote was happening between volumes when the expectation was at its peak. Will voters go for it with even more intensity than before, or will less juvenile prestige take the lead? Then, there's the matter of repeated favorites and how they don't leave space for new names to arise - Best Actor could be full of beautiful surprises, or it'll just be more of the same with a couple of variations. I tend to hope for variety but expect the opposite.

Nathaniel: Among first season shows it's inevitable that Squid Games lands in a big way given its SAG wins and immense ratings. But the two most interesting series to watch in terms of how they might play with voters are Showtime's Yellowjackets and Apple TV's Severance. It's easy to see different scenarios where they overperform or underperform. I'm guessing a split where Severance overperforms and Yellowjackets slightly underperforms (Lynskey only for the acting races) though I think both will easily land in the top category, despite all the competition from returning shows. I'm even predicting Severance's Adam Scott for a lead actor nomination despite the formidable competition and so few pundits actually risking that call. To include him it was either ditching Odenkirk or Brown, both of whom are default nominees. Now watch it be someone unexpected who gets the boot!

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Outstanding Drama Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

Quite Probable

Split Decision

Lone Vote of Faith

Zendaya's Emmy win for "Euphoria" in 2020 was one of the most memorable recent Emmy moments. Can she repeat again this year?

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (6 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

Quite Probable

Split Decisions

Lone Votes of Faith

"Squid Game" was one of the biggest sensations of the season. Can lead star Lee Jun-Jae add an Emmy next to his SAG Award for the series?

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (6 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

Quite Probable

Split Decisions

Lone Votes

If she wins, this would be Julia Garner's third Emmy for the role of Ruth Langmore in "Ozark."

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

Quite Probable

Split Decisions

Lone Votes

How many "Succession" men will get into Supporting Actor? We predict two for sure, with two more waiting in the wings.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series (8 Nominees)

Unanimous Choices

Quite Probable

Split Decision

Lone Votes of Faith

Who do you think will be nominated for Drama Emmys? Which performers or shows do you wish were getting more attention? 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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