by Nathaniel R
the riveting intriguing 1st episode of Station Eleven, "Wheel of Fire"
It's difficult to talk stats and predictions with the Limited Series categories since they've gone through so many identity shifts and upheavals in the past dozen years or so. For example, TV Movies are still eligible to compete for writing and directing prizes right here BUT they almost never do while TV Movies have always had their own top category BUT they used to be able to compete directly with limited series instead IF they were movie-length episodes of an Anthology Series. Confusing! Let it suffice to say that there is only a little data that applies when predicting given frequent rule changes and the more Oscar-like shifts in eligibility since you can't usually honor the same things year after year. So we (mostly) have to go on pure feeling. And that's more fun anyway, so it's all good.
Let's discuss/predict...
Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Anthology Series
THE NOMINEES
the finale of Dopesick, "The People vs Purdue Pharma"
- Dopesick, "The People vs Purdue Pharma" by Danny Strong
"The criminal investigation now threatens Richard Sackler's empire, activists take action against Purdue, and Finnix tries to heal his beloved community" - The Dropout, "Green Juice" by Michael Showalter
"Theranos rapidly expands, the technology struggles, and members of the board become increasingly wary of Elizabeth's secretive behavior" - The Dropout, "Iron Sisters" by Francesca Gregorini
"Two new employees, fresh out of college, discover shocking truths about Elizabeth and the company." - Maid, "Sky Blue" by John Wells
"Back at square one, Alex reaches out for safe harbor and a legal lifeline" - Station Eleven, "Wheel of Fire" by Hiro Murai
"After a renowned actor collapses onstage, Jeevan Chaudhary and young Kirsten Raymonde soon face an important decision that could save their lives" - The White Lotus (complete series) by Mike white
"The exploits of various guests and employees at an exclusive tropical resort over the span of a week"
Analysis
The only clear thing about recent "stats" when it comes to this particular category is whichever show wins here is statistically more likely to be the winner in Best Limited Series than whichever show wins for writing. That indicates a divide and, yes, there definitely is one. In fact in the past ten years only 3 shows within this umbrella (limited series, anthology, tv movie) have won both the directing & writing Emmys, the most recent example being Chernobyl in 2019. But the stats are confusing and we might see a reversal on the more regular Director = Limited Series match with a Writing = Limited Series instead. That's my hunch at this moment! Why? Well, the frontrunner The White Lotus is probably more likely to be viewed as a writing triumph (even though it's very well directed, too) since it comes from the singular distinct voice of Mike White. The dialogue is so brilliant and the themes so well and funnily interwoven.
Direction, though, could be more competitive. Two years back Unorthodox was the surprise winner here despite Watchmen being a very strong frontrunner all around. If it's not The White Lotus, for directing who might win this? The Dropout feels like one natural alternative since it's a very well regarded show but since it's nominated twice here, vote-splitting could be a problem. The other series that could well benefit from any "We don't need to hand *everything* to The White Lotus", sentiment is Dopesick. That series was extremely well regarded and cleaned up in nominations. Producer/Writer/Director Danny Strong already has two Emmys (both for Game Change) though this would be his first win in Directing (as its his first time nominated for that skill).
the penultimate episode of Maid "Sky Blue"
There are also two potential spoilers with very different sources of appeal for voters. If voters want to reward an industry man they already love, there's John Wells, nominated for Maid, which surprisingly missed in the top category and in most acting categories. That lukewarm nomination response to Maid suggests that he won't win but consider that he already has six Emmys so he's "in the club". If the voters want to instead honor a rising player in Hollywood, showing his versatility, they could go with Hiro Murai who has wracked up five Emmy nominations in just the last five years (all but this nomination were for the comedy series Atlanta)
Will Win: Danny Strong for Dopesick "The People vs Purdue Pharma"
Should Win: Mike White for The White Lotus*
Should Win Disclaimer*: We've always felt very uncomfortable that whole series can compete with single episodes in various categories so if we had to rule out The White Lotus, which is competing as a whole series, and choose by episode (i.e. the rest of the field) than the "should" win goes to Hiro Murai for that stunningly executed disorienting drop into the world just as its lost in Station Eleven.
Spoiler: Mike White for The White Lotus
Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series of Anthology Series
NOMINEES
The Dropout's first episode "I'm In a Hurry" takes its name from a song
- Dopesick, "The People vs Purdue Pharma" Danny Strong
Series Finale: - The Dropout, "I'm In a Hurry" Elizabeth Meriwether
Series Premiere: "Elizabeth Holmes, an optimistic and determined young woman, drops out of Stanford to found a promising new blood testing startup." - Impeachment: American Crime Story "Man Handled", Sarah Burgess
"The Office of the Indepent Counsel ensnares Monica Lewinsky, holding her for 12 traumatizing hours in a hotel room" - Maid "Snaps", Molly Smith Metzler
Series Finale: "Gaining strength and support from a creative writing therapy group, Alex fights for her future by facing off with Sean over custody." - Station Eleven, "Unbroken Circle", Patrick Somerville
Series Finale: " Kristen sets in motion her plan to free the Traveling Symphony, while miranda tries to live the right life." - The White Lotus, (complete series), Mike White
"The exploits of various guests and employees at an exclusive tropical resort over the span of a week"
ANALYSIS
The White Lotus, the frontrunner to win, surely has an enormous lead here. A year after its run people are still talking about it. The genius lingers! It's the only nominee competing for the entirety of its run (since Mike White wrote every episode). Most of the shows chose their finales. In the case of Dopesick, seemingly the only real threat to Lotus in any number of categories, that wasn't necessarily wise. In the final episode, the investigation wraps up and Big Pharma loses... but also doesn't. While the series as a whole is strong, the finale doesn't necessarily represent the series at its best, since it thrives on the day-to-day struggles of all its characters, and the compounding tragedies of Big Pharma getting rich off of human misery, rather than the results of the legal proceedings. The time jumping of every episode kind of dilutes this as a grand finale, too.
As for the non-finales, Impeachment: American Crime Story made a smart choice with "Man Handled" episode but with only two nominations in major categories it feels like residual goodwill for the anthology series since the other two seasons (The Assassination of Gianni Versace and The People vs OJ Simpson) were so very dominant in their years.
Finally, The Dropout, the only show to choose a pilot episode (though should we really call them pilots anymore since everything goes straight to series?), makes a strong case for itself. "I'm in a Hurry" races through a few years in the life of Elizabeth Holmes as she prepares for college, attends college, and drops out of college to start her own company. This single hour has everything: stakes, curveballs, crimes, sex, money troubles, multiple character intros. Above all else it has speed (the title is apt) and the brilliant Amanda Seyfried giving a stunningly committed and fully realized character study. Who is this odd young woman? The professors and her flatmates aren't the only people giving her the side eye; the audience is, too. The dialogue is rich -- that verbal dressing down from Laurie Metcalif as a tetchy professor who loses her own patience to Elizabeth's juvenile impatience is a wonder of a scene. Even when there's no dialogue as in the titular sequence as Elizabeth dances in front of a poster of Steve Jobs, it's richly character focused. It's a well deserved nomination but there's just no topping the masterful, provocate, and hugely enjoyable White Lotus this season.
Will Win: The White Lotus - Mike White
Should Win: The White Lotus - Mike White
Spoiler: n/a is it crazy that we can't imagine Mike White losing this one? If forced to choose, than Dopesick (but only if it sweeps)
Who do you think will win in these categories and who are you rooting for?
MORE ANALYSIS