The Film Experience

Lily James in Pam and Tommy

This is quite a lineup, though just one of its six nominees is from an anthology series and none are from TV movies (Jenna Ortega would have made a phenomenal choice for HBO Max’s The Fallout). Every character portrayed is based on a real person, with only Margaret Qualley’s Alex Russell adapted from author Stephanie Land into someone slightly fictionalized. Exactly half of these women star in projects nominated for Best Limited or Anthology Series, but there’s still support for the other three even if their projects underperformed. Only Lily James and Amanda Seyfried are brand-new to the Emmys, and, of the rest, all but Qualley have actually won before. I think it’s likely a race between the newbies, but let’s examine the lineup...

Toni Collette in The Staircase

NOMINEES:

Toni Collette as Kathleen Peterson - The Staircase
Julia Garner as Anna Delvey - Inventing Anna
Lily James as Pamela Anderson - Pam and Tommy
Sarah Paulson as Linda Tripp - Impeachment: American Crime Story
Margaret Qualley as Alex Russell - Maid
Amanda Seyfried as Elizabeth Holmes - The Dropout

ANALYSIS:

Sarah Paulson with Beanie Feldstein in Impeachment: American Crime Story

The only actress previously nominated in this category and for the same anthology series is Paulson. From her seven past nominations, six have been for collaborations with creator Ryan Murphy, and her one win comes from the first iteration of American Crime Story, when she played Marcia Clark. The People v. O. J. Simpson contended for 22 Emmys, The Assassination of Gianni Versace was up for 18, while the third season, Impeachment, in comparison, is in the running for just 5 Emmys. Paulson did win the Hollywood Critics Association TV prize, but she was in her own category with most of her competition at the Emmys in a separate race. I’ll admit that when I watched the first episode of Impeachment, I was struck by Paulson’s transformative performance, burying herself in the character more than just in a controversial fat suit.

Margaret Qualley in Maid

There is certainly passion around Margaret Qualley and her performance, but the show’s big miss in the top category and the absence of her costar and real-life mother Andie MacDowell suggests she doesn’t have the momentum to win. The same goes for Collette, a previous victor for United States of Tara, who died admirably on the titular stairs so many times, since her show received just two nominations.

I don’t think we should underestimate Garner, though, who I’ve already predicted to win her other nomination (Supporting Actress, Drama Series). This role is completely different, so voters will naturally be impressed with her range.

Anthony Edwards with Julia Garner in Inventing Anna

But, barring a Paulson or Garner upset, I think the race is down to Lily James and Amanda Seyfried. The latter, who did win the HCA prize, might have been the surefire frontrunner had James’ series not made a surprisingly strong showing with mentions for costar Sebastian Stan as well as for the top prize. Surprisingly The Dropout scored fewer nominations in total than Pam & Tommy thanks to a few technical nominations. James does a physical transformation but also excels in the part, and so it’s hard to say which of them is ahead. The fact that both shows are on Hulu makes it even more difficult to get behind one of them. I think it will ultimately be Seyfried, but I’m far from confident.

Amanda Seyfried in The Dropout

Will Win: Amanda Seyfried - The Dropout
Should Win: Julia Garner - Inventing Anna
Spoiler: Lily James - Pam and Tommy

WHO ARE YOU ROOTING FOR?

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