The Film Experience

Andrew Garfield in Under the Banner of Heaven

I had fully expected Ben Foster to be here on behalf of the TV movie part of this category for The Survivor, but he’s not, and this race is actually dominated by men from series that didn’t earn a spot in the top race. Only Michael Keaton and Sebastian Stan saw their shows score overall, and both Andrew Garfield and Oscar Isaac represent their series’ only bids. Those statistics make it seem like Keaton wins this in a walk, but these are seriously good performances that are worth considering alongside his. Here are the nominees…

Himesh Patel in Station Eleven

NOMINEES:

Colin Firth as Michael Peterson - The Staircase
Andrew Garfield as Detective Jeb Pyre - Under the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac as Jonathan Levy - Scenes from a Marriage
Michael Keaton as Dr. Samuel Finnix - Dopesick
Himesh Patel as Jeevan Chaudhary - Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan as Tommy Lee - Pam and Tommy

Oscar Isaac with Jessica Chastain in Scenes from a Marriage

ANALYSIS:

Let’s start with Garfield and Isaac. Under the Banner of Heaven is a very strong series that finds Garfield once again playing a man grappling with religious devotion (see: Silence, Hacksaw Ridge) as he investigates a brutal murder by Mormon fundamentalists. It’s an immersive and very compelling turn, but the fact that he’s all alone without any of his worthy costars, like Sam Worthington, Wyatt Russell, or Daisy Edgar-Jones, or the show’s directors or artisans means that Emmy voters weren’t wowed by the show. Isaac’s series is much smaller-scale since it’s basically a duet with the not-nominated Jessica Chastain, so he has a great deal of screentime. (Isaac won at the Hollywood Critics Association TV Awards, but most of his competition were in a separate streaming category.)

Colin Firth with Michael Stuhlbarg in The Staircase

Initially Firth seemed like a strong challenger for Keaton before The Staircase tanked in nominations, receiving just two (his onscreen wife Toni Collette is the other). Regardless of how the limited series was perceived, his performance is excellent, and it’s also atypical for the usually likable actor.

Patel is a different story altogether, delivering something quite nuanced, and voters may have a tough time with the fact that he appears only sporadically through the show. Though it missed the top category, Station Eleven did earn seven nominations, including writing and directing bids, but if it does win something, this category would be a surprising place to do it.

Sebastian Stan in Pam and Tommy

To predict Stan to win if his costar and onscreen wife Lily James doesn’t seems crazy, and given that I think Amanda Seyfried will win in the corresponding race, I can’t. But Pam and Tommy did get a much warmer Emmy reception than expected and Lily James is barely in the first episode. It's wonderful to see Stan exhibiting considerably more enthusiasm than he does in Marvel movies and other projects. It’s certainly A PERFORMANCE, and I think will earn some votes.

But that brings us back to Keaton, who rolled onto the stage at the SAG Awards when he was in the bathroom as his name was called and who has spent the past year delivering passionate acceptance speeches for this role. Without anyone from The White Lotus in competition here, it's all but a guaranteed victory for Dopesick and its compelling star.

Michael Keaton in Dopesick

Will Win: Michael Keaton - Dopesick
Should Win: Andrew Garfield - Under the Banner of Heaven
Spoiler: Colin Firth - The Staircase

WHO ARE YOU ROOTING FOR?

MORE ANALYSIS