What Are Each Actor's Chances at Oscars Post-SAG Nominations?
Thursday, January 12, 2023 at 10:20AM
Christopher James in Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, Oscars, Punditry, SAG

By: Christopher James

After a surprise omission at the SAG Awards, what are Michelle Williams' chances at scoring an Oscar nomination for The Fabelmans?Now that the SAG Awards nominations have been announced, we have a slightly clearer picture of the acting races as we get closer to Oscar nomination morning. I use the word “slightly” because there’s always room for surprises. In fact, last year saw four acting nominees earn Oscar nominations without any precursor citations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards.

At this stage of the awards race, we have two questions to ask. Which actor with nominations from all three groups will be snubbed by Oscar? Which actor can sneak in without these precursors?

The Stats

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsYes, more precursor nominations from the central three awards bodies - Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards - means an actor has a greater chance at earning an Oscar nomination. Roughly nine out of ten actors who receive this triple crown of nominations go onto the Oscars. Now we apply that to this year’s crop of hopefuls. Thirteen actors have managed to earn nominations from all three awards bodies. Based on this data, one actor will be the big snub of Oscar nomination morning.

Likewise, if we apply the success rate of each of the precursor performances, we can see that 18 actors cited by these three awards groups will move onto the Oscars. That means two slots will come from actors who have not received any of these high profile nominations.

If anything, the Oscars have tended to skew more towards these shocking acting nominees than in years past. Last year, a whopping four acting nominees earned Oscar nominations without corresponding precursor nominations:

  • Best Actress - Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers (2021)

  • Best Supporting Actor - Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog (2021)

  • Best Supporting Actress - Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter (2021)

  • Best Supporting Actress - Judi Dench - Belfast (2021)


Which Frontrunner Will Be Snubbed?

Since we’ve already determined at least one nominee will be snubbed, let’s figure out who that might be. Since 2003, there have been 25 people who have been snubbed after receiving three major precursor nominations. We’ve divided them into four categories (seen below):

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsThe most consistent type of snub comes from a “This Had Oscar Buzz” contender, where a movie’s Oscar chances were solely for a singular performer (think Jennifer Aniston in Cake). Following that, a famous actor in an Oscar underperformer (think Lady Gaga in House of Gucci) is tied with an Anomaly from a Best Picture nominee (think Amy Adams in Arrival) for second place. In essence, if your movie is not going to be a major Best Picture player, you may find yourself snubbed.

Of the thirteen people who have scored the hat trick this year, here are the following performers that may fall into the This Had Oscar Buzz/underperforming film category:

  • Viola Davis (The Woman King)

  • Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

  • Bill Nighy (Living)

  • Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

After winning the Golden Globes last night, Angela Bassett feels more secure in her path towards an Oscar nomination. Likewise, it would be a major shock for Brendan Fraser to miss a nomination for The Whale, since he is still in the hunt for a win. That means that either Viola Davis or Bill Nighy would be the most likely snubs for Oscar.

However, we shouldn’t ignore the possibility that someone from a Best Picture nominee finds themselves missing on Oscar morning. There’s little rhyme or reason, as few predicted Amy Adams missing for Arrival or Tom Hanks missing for Captain Phillips. In both cases, they were not at the top of the pack to win. Realistically, that only hurts Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin, since Supporting Actress is wide open enough that both Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) and Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) have paths to win.

One other helpful lens is to look at these snubs by category:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsOver two-thirds of the snubs occurred in the lead acting races, compared to the supporting acting races. This only further supports that Davis and Nighy are the most in trouble heading into Oscar nomination morning.

What Nomination Combination Has The Highest Correlation With Oscar?

Not all precursors are correlative to Oscar. Getting just a Golden Globe Comedy/Musical nomination does not present you with the same odds as only having a SAG Awards nomination. For the actors who didn’t receive the perfect hat trick, here is the breakdown of success rates when it comes to receiving an Oscar nomination:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsBased on the first chart in this article, six of the 28 actors in this list will compete at the Oscars. The strongest pairing of nominations one could have includes SAG plus Critics Choice. Danielle Deadwyler, Stephanie Hsu and Paul Dano all achieved that this year. Based on the 70% success rate for actors with this precursor haul, two of these three actors will hear their names called on Oscar nomination morning. I could see any combination of these three actors 

While it is further down the chart, we must take into consideration those actors who only received a Critics Choice nomination. Six actors fall into this category this year, with likely only one of them destined for an Oscar nomination. Tom Cruise seems like the safest bet, since Top Gun: Maverick is an Oscar favorite. However, either Jessie Buckley or Janelle Monáe could earn nominations, likely in conjunction with their film breaking into Best Picture. In the war of The Fabelmans supporting actors, it seems like Dano will edge out Judd Hirsch. Or they may cancel each other out.

Finally, we have nine actors who fall in between the two scenarios we just outlined. It would be reasonable to expect three of them to earn Oscar nominations. Based on the “This Had Oscar Buzz” stats for snubs above, the most likely nominees to remove would be Ana De Armas (Blonde), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Adam Sandler (Hustle) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). Michelle Williams still feels like a good bet for The Fabelmans, even after missing at SAG. She had previously missed at SAG before earning a nomination in 2010 for Blue Valentine. From there, it feels like two out of the three of the following actors will follow Williams: Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Brad Pitt (Babylon) and Hong Chau (The Whale). 


Who Will Surprise Come Oscar Nomination Morning?

Many people correctly predicted nominations for Cruz, Plemons and Buckley last year (with Dench being the wildest of wild cards). That’s because the Oscars usually only pick surprises from a couple of buckets. Taking a look at the 23 actors who earned Oscar nominations without major precursors since 2003, here were the most frequently occurring groupings:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsMore than ⅔ of the time, these out-of-nowhere nominations are a result of coattails, either from a Best Picture nominee or Leading Actor lock. Based on the current state of the race, here are some performers that could apply to:

  • Coattails from Best Picture

    • Gabriel LaBelle - The Fabelmans

    • Tom Hanks - Elvis

    • Jennifer Connelly - Top Gun: Maverick

    • Miles Teller - Top Gun: Maverick

    • Nina Hoss - Tár

    • Ben Whishaw - Women Talking

    • Sigourney Weaver - Avatar: The Way of Water

    • Felix Kammerer - All Quiet on the Western Front

    • Daniel Brühl - All Quiet on the Western Front

    • Albrecht Schuch - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Coattails from Lead Performer

    • Thuso Mbedu - The Woman King

    • Lashanna Lynch - The Woman King


Seeing as we just said Viola Davis could still be the victim of a snub, I don’t think her co-stars Mbedu and Lynch are likely surprises, unless the movie surprises in Best Picture and other categories. Of the Best Picture coattail riders, the most likely candidates are LaBelle, Hanks, Whishaw, Hoss or any of the All Quiet on the Western Front stars.

Like before, let’s take a look at which categories typically see a surprise:

Data from 2003 through 2021 OscarsSince supporting surprises are usually more common, this means that our two potential surprises could be Tom Hanks, Nina Hoss, Ben Whishaw, Daniel Brühl or Albrecht Schuch. It’s usually best to bet on actors that can be paired with a lead lock, so I would predict Tom Hanks and Nina Hoss to surprise. However, nothing is set in stone.

Which actors do you think will earn Oscar nominations for acting and why? Let us know in the comments below.

 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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