by Nathaniel R
Hello faithful very patient readers! Time to put our cards down on the table or a protective cloth over our crystal ball and other such metaphors. FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS MUST NOW BE UTTERED...
Father Time (why it gotta be patriarchal?) is a trickster in 2023 and we're already out of days to futz around which came as such a surprise. While it is *always* better to post personal preferences (i.e. the film bitch awards) before the Oscar nominations -- in the traditional categories that is -- so as not to be seen as contrarian or reactionary, the clock aint cooperating! And with Oscar nominations coming Tuesday there's not even time to update every Oscar chart before they have to be removed and replaced with the actuals so we've just removed them for now. Everything is right here in this post until Tuesday.
This isn't all that's going on this weekend and across next week of course. There is also one last poll of the team predictions to post. And Sundance screenings have begun and we still have to share top ten lists. It's chaos at TFE HQ. It's such a pity always that some months of each year are wastelands and other months you couldn't possibly fit everything in even if the days were each 48-72 hours long.
OSCAR NOM PREDICTIONS
Important note: The followings ranking have nothing to do with "who will win"... it is entirely about order of confidence in the actual nomination. We have always mantained (though the modern social media and web discourse don't agree/won't cooperate) that those are two totally different things and "who will win?" would be a more exciting conversation if we could reserve it until we're in the reality of the official competitive set.
BEST PICTURE
BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Top Gun Maverick
- The Fabelmans
- Avatar The Way of Water
- Elvis
- TÁR
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Whale
- Women Talking
Why? It's really only the last two spots that feel difficult to pin down. The Whale, while undeserving, has the distinct advantage of containing the frontrunning Best Actor performance and the Oscars have historically been very kind to Best Actor-focused picture. As for Women Talking. It could easily be left out but it has recency bias over Triangle of Sadness, important messaging over the popcorn silliness of Glass Onion, and is better reviewed than Babylon. All three of those films are possible as BP nominees, though.
BEST DIRECTOR
- Todd Field, TÁR
- Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
- The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Why? I wanted to go way out on a limb for spot #5 for bragging rights just in case something crazy happens. Other possibilities in approximate crystal ball descending order: James Cameron (Avatar The Way of Water), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Joseph Kosinki (Top Gun Maverick), or Baz Lurhmann (Elvis).
Why Charlotte Wells? Listen I could just have easily have said SS Rajamouli (RRR), Park Chan Wook (Decision to Leave), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) or Jerzy Skolimowski (EO) for the 'shock' nomination but I'd like to think her constant flow of "debut" prizes and that DGA nomination for first timers means something within the director's branch.
BEST ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett, TÁR
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Danielle Deadwyler, Till
- Ana de Armas, Blonde
- Margot Robbie, Babylon
Why? We didn't believe the de Armas buzz until the Globes but she's much better than Michelle Williams was at playing Marilyn Monroe and the Academy (and everyone really) nominated Williams for it! Oscar voters have always worshipped biopics, whether or not they're any good.
Why not Viola? For what it's worth, I've never placed Davis in the top five all year for The Woman King. It was always just a hunch that she'd be left out. You cant be nominated every time unless you're Streep and The Woman King is arguably an action film. Only two women in history have landed in this category for that: Sigourney Weaver in Aliens and Sandra Bullock in Gravity. Plus a good chunk of the narrative arc in that particular film belongs to Viola's younger co-star Thuso Mbedu. This hunch became harder to stick with as the precursors lined up with ease for the Emmy, Tony, and Oscar winner. So perhaps my hunch is way off base? We'll see on Tuesday!
Possible spoilers in order: Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) who I'm predicting falls to Margot but just barely given that some people consider her supporting and is likely to have boths in both categories. Plus maybe Viola Davis (The Woman King), and yes even chameleonic Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) given the surge in peer support.
BEST ACTOR
- Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin
- Austin Butler, Elvis
- Bill Nighy, Living
- Paul Mescal, Aftersun
why? Mescal is a reach of course since he's younger than Oscar voters are comfortable with in the category and it's also a lower profile indie than they usually go for in this marquee category. But Mescal has already won a deserved reputation as a revelatory young actor and given the film's popularity in "breakthrough filmmaker" categories, we're hoping enough voters will have seen it and give him the Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson kind of "welcome!" nomimation. It's a risky prediction but so is any prediction for this fifth slot in this category when only four men are clearly in play.
possible spoilers: If it's not Paul Mescal than, in this order, we could see Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Gabriel Labelle (The Fabelmans), or Tom Cruise (Top Gun Maverick) as the spoilers. We were going to list Felix Kamerrer (All Quiet on the Western Front) but given that he was the film's ONLY snub at BAFTA people are treating it like an auteur film rather than an actor's film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Angela Bassett, Black Panther Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau, The Whale
- Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
why? This still feels like the single most volatile category. Only Condon feels truly safe (though not for the win) in terms of nominations. Curtis has the 'silly comedic work is not what actors tend to take that seriously' and the 'what about her co-star?' problems and Bassett has the 'superhero films are not what actors tend to take that seriously' kind of problem -- in short, neither of them would be landing these nominations if they weren't already legendary actors. Which is not the same thing as saying they're undeserving, please understand.
Hong Chau, as reliably perfect as she is every time she's onscreen in anything, is mostly predicted due to coattails from working with the Best Actor frontrunner, and Dolly de Leon might just be 'hope-dicting' at this point. But BAFTA came through... so we think maybe.
possible spoilers? So many! In descending order of likelihood to crash this party: Janelle Monae (Glass Onion), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans -- if enough voters put her here instead), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once), and two star lead actresses who have been shamelessly pushed as supporting and then approved by critics groups despite that: Carey Mulligan (She Said) and Keke Palmer (Nope). Both of those performances, especially Palmer's, are wonderful but category Fraud is always irritating and it's especially painful in years where the field of options to voters is so very rich. Not every one can be honored so every vote for a first or second billed movie star in a leading role in this category, literally takes away a vote for an undersung supporting actress to win honors for her hard work crafting a full character without the benefit of the entire movie and lots of screen time supporting her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin
- Barry Keoghan, Banshees of Inisherin
- Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
- Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
why/spoilers Listen. Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) is in a great position given the lockstep precursor approval. But we're still mystified how that came to be for a performance and film that didn't make waves when it was released and appears to have no sizeable fan base. Perhaps this is a blindspot on my part? Have any of you met any fans of this film or performance?
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) is obviously a longshot despite the Gotham and Spirit attention but he's so worthy that we hope he is the surprise in the fifth spot. Brad Pitt (Babylon) might have an outside shot but we'd be surprised given the reception of the film and that he's already been amply rewarded and quite recently too. Which left us with... will it really be Judd Hirsch? And will we really have only 3 films nominated in this category? It would be an unusual result but we're going for it. No guts no glory.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
- All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
- Close (Belgium)
- Argentina 1985 (Argentina)
- EO (Poland)
- Decision to Leave (South Korea)
potential spoilers This race is so ultra competitive that we think ONLY All Quiet on the Western Front is locked up and any combo of four from the the other fourteen finalists is possible. Anything could become the weird snub... yes, even the much lauded Decision to Leave (Oscar voters have historically been resistant to Asian cinema and that's a grudge we have that will take a few years of Oscar being generous for us to shake). What's more, can anything even be considered a snub when the finalist list is so strong this year? The most poorly reviewed film of the 15 is surely Bardo (Mexico) but that has the advantage of coming from a director Oscar voters are undeniably obsessed with; Inarittu has won four Oscars and a special achievement award... all in the past eight years!
Among the other finalists Joyland (Pakistan), The Quiet Girl (Ireland) and Return to Seoul (Cambodia) have very devout cheerleaders and are easy to picture as "upset" nominees. And please see them the first chance you get as they're all great. Corsage (Austria), Saint Omer (France) and Holy Spider (Denmark) also have fanbases and reasons to highly recommend them. The three lowest profile titles Blue Caftan (Morocco), Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden), and Last Film Show (India) would be more of a surprise as nominees but anything is possible in this category. In short: hoorah for a strong finalist list.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
- Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- Turning Red
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Little Nicholas
why? predicting Little Nicholas on account of "no guts no glory" and because otherwise this list will be soooo mainstream. P.S. I don't actually think Marcel the Shell is safe (though it is likely) since animators sometimes get picky about things with "limited" animation...see that infamous snub of Lego Movie
possible spoilers: 27 films are eligible but the most likely spoilers are The Sea Beast (from a previous nominee), The Bad Guys (because it was a big hit), Strange World (for recency bias and Disney dominance), Lightyear or Minions The Rise of Gru (if they're feeling super lazy about voting), My Father's Dragon (if they're still loyal to Cartoon Saloon) Inu-Oh (if they watched it after the Globe nomination) or Mad God (if they're feeling risky/frisky).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- All that Breathes
- Fire of Love
- Navalny
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Descendant
why? As much as we love Moonage Daydream, voters are weird about archival footage docs AND box office hits in this category.
possible spoilers the 10 other finalists in order of whether Oscar might go for them. Let's say in this order: Moonage Daydream, The Territory, Bad Axe, Last Flight Home, Retrograde, House Made of Splinters, The Janes, Children of the Mist, Hidden Letters , and Hallelujah Leonard Cohen a Journey a Song.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- TÁR
- Triangle of Sadness
- Aftersun
why? Predicting a snub for The Fabelmans... though we're not happy about it. In reality there are six well received high profile options for them in this category so one of them is waking up to very bad news on Tuesday morning. Aftersun feels like it's still on the rise while Triangle of Sadness and The Fabelmans feel like they're a bit more faded and divisive.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Glass Onion
- Women Talking
- Living
- The Whale
- Top Gun Maverick
why? We really did not want to predict Top Gun Maverick here but that USC Scripter nod might have been telling. Quite a few actually feel plausible but mostly (in descending order) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, She Said, and All Quiet on the Western Front.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Top Gun Maverick
- Avatar The Way of Water
- The Batman
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Empire of Light
why/spoilers Going out on a limb here and predicting that the ACS goes 3/5 rather than their usual 4/5 with Elvis and Bardo falling to Avatar and the surging German film All Quiet on the Western Front. That said we're still rooting for Nope to magically appear in the final lineup because it's so much better than some of its competitors.
Pity that none of the strong foreign options other than All Quiet / Bardo really caught on in this category because the American films haven't been quite as strong in this field. EO, for example, would be a dream nominee.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
- Elvis
- Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
- Black Panther Wakanda Forever
- Babylon
- Living
why While Living wasn't CDG nominated, Oscar's costume branch likes the three time Oscar winner Sandy Powell more than the guild does. Just a hunch given all those wonderful 1950s suits and hats.
possible spoilers: If Babylon's anachronisms piss off enough of the costume branch members we could see it replaced here. Possible alternates (in descending order): The Fabelmans, All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and even Glass Onion (though Oscar tends to be allergic to contemporary fashion)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Avatar The Way of Water
- Babylon
- Elvis
- Glass Onion
- The Fabelmans
spoilers? Other films that might snag nominations (in descending order of likelihood) include Black Panther Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman , and Everything Everywhere All At Once
three loveable longshots: BAFTA nominee Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio would be an amazing nomination but Oscar has never sprung for an animated film in this category. White Noise would be a fun nomination but the film hasn't gotten much attention. Finally, we can't understand how Nope hasn't caught on in this category in particular as it runs circles around so many other films in this department and we'd be tempted to give it the win.
BEST FILM EDITING
- Top Gun Maverick
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Elvis
- Avatar the Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
why? It's dangerously free of possible Best Picture winners, this list, but that's what I landed on without the guild to help (ACE Eddie nominations come after the Oscar nods this year for some reason).
potential spoilers: Banshees of Inisherin (BAFTA nominated in this category) and The Fabelmans feel like the most likely disruptors given their Best Picture heat. The Fabelmans even contains that nifty sequence that's all about film editing!
loveable longshot: how cool would a nomination for Aftersun be in this category?
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- Avatar the Way of Water
- Top Gun Maverick
- The Batman
- Nope
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
why? Kind of a risk to exclude Black Panther BUT the original wasn't nominated in this category (whereas the original Doctor Strange was) and it's underwater stuff looks so shabby next to Avatar... All that plus the heat Marvel has taken about their overall visual effects sloppiness across all franchises in the past few years. The other 5 finalists just don't seem quite as likely though we'd rank them in this order of predicted Oscar preference as spoilers (though that's definitely not our preference!!!) Black Panther Wakanda Forever (still very possible) Jurassic World Dominion (but they skipped the last installment in this category) All Quiet on the Western Front, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, and Thirteen Lives.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
- Elvis
- The Whale
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- All Quiet on the Western Front
why? / spoilers I've been predicting most of these for a long time but have subbed in the surging All quiet on the Western Front at the last moment in place of Amsterdam. Still as I've mentioned all year long just because twitter hates Amsterdam doesn't mean the Academy will! The other five finalists in descending order of Oscar preference guessing: Amsterdam, Blonde, Crimes of the Future (so awesome that it made the finals but we dare not assume a nomination is likely), Babylon, and Emancipation.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
- The Fabelmans
- Babylon
- Women Talking
- The Banshees of Inisherin
why? Two sure things from beloved composers Desplat & Williams. The rest is guesswork based on enthusiasm for those scores and one undersung composer (Carter Burwell) with a major Best Picture player in Banshees of Inisherin
potential spoilers: The other finalists in order of their likelihood to interfere with this prediction? Avatar the Way of Water, All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Nope, Devotion, Don't Worry Darling, The Woman King, She Said, and Glass Onion
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- "Naatu Naatu" -RRR
- "Ciao Papa" -Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
- "Hold My Hand" -Top Gun Maverick
- "New Body Rhumba" -White Noise
- "Lift Me Up" -Black Panther Wakanda Forever
why? Famous stars or memorable songs/scenes. This category is one of Oscar's weakest year by year with lots of strange choices. I readily admit that I'm not good at predicting what they'll go for... especially since my own tastes are diametrically opposed, nearly always preferring songs that contribute to the narrative over Oscar's preference of end credit scroll songs.
potential spoilers? The other finalists in descending order of predicted likelihood: "Good Afternoon", Spirited (if they're in a joke song mood... which they sometimes are!), "This is a Life" Everything Everywhere All At Once (if it's a sweeper), "Applause" Tell It LIke A Woman (if that honorary Oscar for Diane Warren doesn't allow them to take a break for a year), "Carolina" When the Crawdads Sing (if they're finally done ignoring Taylor Swift), "Til You're Home" A Man Called Otto (if they want to honor Mrs Tom Hanks, Rita Wilson!) and "Stand Up" Till (if they watched it), or the titular songs from Voice of Dust and Ash, and Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me.
SOUND
- Top Gun Maverick
- Avatar the Way of Water
- Elvis
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
why / potential spoilers: The other finalists in order of probability at busting into this lineup... The Batman, Babylon, Guilldermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, and Moonage Daydream which would be very cool but the fact is that they've only ever nominated one documentary for this prize and that was over 50 years ago (Woodstock).
We'll annnounced the shorts predictions soon (finishing up the screenings we've been able to find)
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Who knows but we're out of time so this is the final nomination-tally prediction as weird as it reads. Apparently we're predicting a year where no film breaks the double digit mark... which is against Oscar trending since they tend to be "all in" and not think about category particulars these days. We think Banshees and Top Gun Maverick and even Avatar are probably predicted at their maximum capacities but EEAAO, AQOTWF, The Fabelman, Elvis, and Babylon all feel like they have a wide range of possibility in terms of final nomination count, so we shall see.
8 nominations
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
7 nominations
ELVIS
TOP GUN MAVERICK
6 nominations
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT -the overperformer ???
AVATAR THE WAY OF WATER
THE FABELMANS -- weirdly it's become a wild card. could see this with anywhere from 4 to 10 nominations
5 nominations
THE WHALE
4 nominations
BABYLON - predicted as most nominations without a Best Picture citation
TAR
3 nominations
AFTERSUN - but obviously could be entirely shut out, too.
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER WAKANDA FOREVER
GUILLERMO DEL TORO'S PINOCCHIO
WOMEN TALKING - predicted least citations for a Best Picture nominee this year... but theoretically could end up with just 1 nom (adapted screenplay)
2 nominations
GLASS ONION - the underperformer ???
LIVING
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
1 nomination
BLONDE
DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS
EMPIRE OF LIGHT
MRS HARRIS GOES TO PARIS
NOPE
RRR
TILL
WHITE NOISE