by Eric Blume
It’s always fun when “the conversation” starts to brew for Oscar nominations every year, seeing which actors are gaining traction for a potential nomination. What’s interesting this year is that there are an unusually high number of actors (six, in fact!) who currently have four acting nominations under their belt who all stand good-to-great chances of joining The Five Club with nods this year. Five Oscar nominations is a big deal. Only 22 actors currently have five, and the names are among some of our best from older Hollywood (Olivia de Havilland, James Stewart), to the modern age (Albert Finney, Anne Bancroft, Susan Sarandon) to contemporary (Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, Michelle Williams). It’s very nice company to be in.
Let’s take a look at the actors who stand a very real shot of being a part of The Five Club this year…
Freshly streaming on Netflix, we have not one but two actors who could join simultaneously with NYAD. Lead actress Annette Bening gives a sharp, prickly turn as swimmer Diana Nyad, and supporting her is none other than Jodie Foster, relaxed, breezy, fiery, and better than she’s been onscreen in possibly decades. Few actors are more exciting than these two when they’re firing on all cylinders as they are here, and four career nominations feels low for the brilliantly talented actresses. They also work together beautifully, and there's joy in their acting. NYAD the film is far from a masterpiece, so they’ll need to get their nominations on their performances alone, but one or both could easily figure in this year’s race. I think Jodie is one of the greatest actors to ever stand in front of a camera, so I’m really rooting for her this year.
Bradley Cooper seems like a very safe bet even in the crowded Best Actor race for Maestro. Yes, he has additional nominations, but currently he has four for his acting within this last decade. He is beloved by the Academy, he’s in some form of a biopic, and his talent is unquestionable. At the moment, I think Cooper is going to go all the way, but we have lots of time and turns in the race ahead.
Penélope Cruz emerged from Ferrari with best-in-show reviews, and it’s one of those performances that will further stand out as the strong female element in a “man movie”. Cruz is another actor who is unbeatable when she’s inspired and responding electrically with a director. She’s gotten in for two of her incredible foreign-language performances with Almodóvar, so the Academy clearly loves her and she’s on fire here.
Willem Dafoe has had such a remarkable career, his first of four nominations being way back in 1986 for Platoon, and he’s in the conversation again for Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. He came close to winning a few years back for The Florida Project, and it would be great to see him holding an Oscar one day. Dafoe takes huge risks and has accomplished technique, and he’s both a star and a journeyman actor. Nomination five for him feels good.
Joaquin Phoenix seems least likely for a nomination for Napoleon, but it’s still mostly unseen and who knows. Phoenix is a scrappy, fascinating actor who always seems able to surprise, but the trailer looks wobbly at best, so time will tell.
I’m not including Viola Davis here for Air, because that performance is very by-the-books and nothing very special, and while she was in the conversation early on, luckily we’ve moved on to bigger and better things in the Supporting Actress category. Davis is obviously a major actor, but we can demand more from her than what she gives us here.
A few interesting additions. If nominated for May December, the great Julianne Moore would move from The Five Club to The Six Club. If nominated for Killers of the Flower Moon, Leonardo DiCaprio would move from six noms to seven noms, and Robert De Niro from seven noms to eight noms.
On the other end, actors currently with three nominations who are in the conversation to possibly move to The Four Club include Mark Ruffalo and Emma Stone for Poor Things, Matt Damon for Oppenheimer, and Natalie Portman for May December.
Who are you most hoping will join The Five Club early next year?