SAG Predictions 
Wednesday, December 27, 2023 at 5:50PM
NATHANIEL R in America Ferrara, Barbie, Julianne Moore, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oscars (23), Punditry, SAG, precursor awards

 by Nathaniel R

Randolph and Giamatti both feel like sure things at SAG.

With SAG currently in the midst of their nominating process and just two weeks until SAG announces their nominees (January 10th), we have to wonder how “set” the acting fields are at this point in awards season. SAG has been known to throw one (sometimes two) curveballs in the traditional categories and year to year the “Outstanding Cast” award is always a mystery as there are no real precursors for it and general individual Oscar traction can only take you so far in a broader category, even if the traction is assumed to be related to the closest Oscar parallel (Best Picture). Let's look at the six film awards from the Screen Actors Guild Awards and predict....

predicted nominees are in bold

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

 

Sure things

It would be a shock to see any of them miss but shocks do occasionally happen. 

 Will Jeffrey Wright be nominated. And will that campaign have coattails?

Vying for the other two slots?

I think DiCaprio makes it with SAG even if he doesn’t with Oscar – hell, he even made it in for J Edgar (remember that? Of course not!). Domingo, Scott, and Wright are all far more deserving this year but deserve has little to do with it once we’re in the thick of awards season. It’s all about buzz buzz buzz and the profile of the star or movie they’re in. SAG voters sometimes lack imagination and just go with the highest profile stars; Only the Globes get dinged for this in the media but it’s a problem in general, one that’s only exacerbated by big spending Oscar campaigns and precursor awards voters thinking of themselves as pundits*. I’m going to guess Wright makes it in over Domingo but I do have to wonder if there will be a surprise nominee.

 

*They shouldn’t ever do this but, alas, they do. 

 

Potential Curveballs

 

Any of them would be exciting names to hear called out, not just because they’re good in their pictures but because it would, at least temporarily, shake up perceptions of the race and encourage Oscar voters to watch more of the films. 

 

ACTRESS IN  A LEADING ROLE

 

Sure things

 

They should start lining up their gowns for January through March events. They’ll be invited everywhere.

 

Vying for the other three slots

This will be interesting. While Huller, Lee, and Mulligan have enjoyed raves (and awards traction), I’m less convinced that they’re slam dunks with the more mainstream voting body of SAG. Not with Fantasia Barrino currently topping the box office with The Color Purple in the middle of voting and Barbie herself, Margot Robbie, as an option. Mulligan has had a spotty awards record despite her acclaim so we’re guessing it’s Natalie Portman in the actor-friendly May December for the fifth slot.

 

Potential Curveballs

 

Remember when Helen Mirren made it for Woman in Gold? Remember when Sarah Silverman made it in for I Smile Back. Anything is possible! 


ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

 

Sure things

 

It’s getting impossible to imagine the Oscar lineup without these three and SAG doesn’t tend to get creative in supporting actor.

 

Vying for the two open slots

SAG is less resistant to young male actors than Oscar so Melton is probably in. SAG is also very familiar with  Sterling K Brown who has won 4 SAGs (albeit all in the “Outstanding Cast” realm) so I predict he leapfrogs past the more obvious choices of Dafoe and De Niro. 

 

Potential Curveballs

 

A potential curveball seems unlikely in Supporting Actor in particular since this has been an awards season that hasn’t demonstrated that people are thinking about a deep bench of supporting actors (or films for that matter). 

 

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

 

Sure things

 

Blunt seems like the type of performer that could be a shocking miss on Oscar nomination morning regardless of her film’s popularity BUT the Screen Actors Guild has been on her side consistently in the past with 3 nominations (and a win!)  for her film work – a stark contract to that 0 total with Oscar. 

 

Vying for the two open slots

Curiously I keep thinking Julianne Moore will miss the Oscar nomination this year (despite what appears to be considerable traction) but I feel certain she’ll make it with SAG. This is how the punditry brain works (or overworks as the case may be). Jodie Foster feels less and less likely with Oscar (given that there’s not much heat around a nomination for Bening) but on the other hand SAG voters are sometimes a month or so behind the buzz. Taraji P Henson remains a possibility with The Color Purple being popular at the right time but nobody is really raving about her performance (all the heat is with Danielle & Fantasia). Tossing up my hands and predicting that this is the category in which we get a curveball nominee…

 

Potential Curveballs

 

Here is where Barbie’s phenomenal popularity pays off in a big way.



OUTSTANDING STUNT ENSEMBLE

 

This category is now 17 years old but it still feels hard to read. The only thing we know for certain is that Best Picture traction gives you a considerable boost even in this unlikely place (Yes, we’re still baffled by that Trial of the Chicago 7 nomination). On the other hand are they really going to place Barbie and Oppenheimer everywhere? 

Predictions

 

Other Possiblities 

 

Wild guess work there.

 

Okay now on to the big Kahuna, 

 

OUTSTANDING CAST 

 

Sure things

 

This category is often volatile with films that feel like sure things somehow not landing and films where tiny casts are all nominated individually getting an extra nod here. But one thing that remains the "surest bet" in this category is the combination of a lot of Best Picture heat and a sprawling famous cast. So the world will have no break from “Barbenheimer”; The world doesn’t yet want a break!

 

Vying for the other three slots?

 

Potential Curveballs

 

This is always so hard to predict. But we’re going with American Fiction (which feels like the riskiest guess), Killers of the Flower Moon (due to Best Picture heat), and The Color Purple (surging at the right time and also being a musical which SAG likes) edging out the much smaller if also buzzy casts  of The Holdovers and May December. On the other hand if Ben Affleck's Air is going to strike anywhere this awards season, wouldn’t it be right here in this very category?

 

It’s a pity, generally speaking, that guild voters dont think harder about this category though as it would be nice to occasionally see a film recognized just because a large cast was  all in sync with a singular vision (like, oh, Asteroid City) or because a tiny cast were all raising each other’s games in a film reliant on their interplay (like, oh, All of Us Strangers or Past Lives) or because everyone was just really good even if there’s not one obvious standout performance to pin a full campaign on (like, oh, The Iron Claw).    

So yes, I’m predicting Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon leading with 4 nominations across the 6 film categories followed by a few others hitting 3 nominations (American Fiction, The Color Purple, May December, and Oppenheimer) That's all. Do share your own predictions in the comments. 

 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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