Team Experience has been teaming up to discuss the various Oscar races. Here's Christopher James, Abe Friedtanzer and Nathaniel R...
CHRIS: It's been a while since Best Actor was the most exciting and unpredictable race of the evening. Heading into last weekend, it was truly a three man race between Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin). Now that both BAFTA and SAG have made like Brendan Gleeson and passed over Farrell, I sadly feel like he has dropped out of contention for the win. Of the nominated five, he was my personal vote. He knows how to dramatize Pádraic's hurt, while also finding the comedy in his tragedy. With just the crinkle of an eyebrow, he communicates such emotional vulnerability, a level to which we don't often see men rewarded for showing.
The race is now a photo finish with BAFTA/Globes winner Austin Butler and SAG/Critics Choice winner Brendan Fraser. This mirrors the 2011 Best Actress showdown, where Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) had both BAFTA and Golden Globes wins and Viola Davis (The Help) took home SAG and Critics Choice prizes. In the end, Streep won, which is hopeful for Butler. However, the SAG/Critics Choice combo was a successful path to victory for Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) last year, so Fraser is certainly not out of the running...
Right now, I'm going with Butler. I can't bet against a musical biopic that is a Best Picture nominee and will win other tech categories. Nathaniel and Abe, do you agree or disagree? Talk me over to the Fraser camp.
NATHANIEL: I wish that I felt it was a tight race but I do not. I think Brendan Fraser will win on Oscar night. Butler has certainly been shaking every hand and kissing every baby. He was even a volunteer escort on SAG night, getting multiple winners to the stage without tripping on their gowns. So he's working hard for it. But in the end, there's been a much longer media-supported narrative push for Brendan Fraser as the heart-warming comeback.
There were multiple tweets going around a while ago -- like some hive-mind snark -- complaining that people were treating Brendan Fraser like a "make-a-wish" kid. This got a lot of pushback because people love a comeback and because Fraser has had some awful things happen to him, but I think one reason the comment upset people is that it has a whiff of truth to it.
I don't want to sound unkind but it feels a little bit like rewriting history to reclaim Fraser as some great lost movie star who was treated deplorably by Hollywood. (He was treated deplorably by the Globes, yes, but that's not "Hollywood" just industry-adjacent). He had a career much like any other A lister: an early breakout (School Ties) one big mainstream home-run (The Mummy), a few midsize successes and the requisite misses, and one performance that had some critical enthusiasm if not enough for any awards (Gods and Monsters). And then his stardom waned. But that trajectory is similar to the vast majority of people who manage to rise up through the very competitive industry all the way to headlining gigs. For most it's a short ride (10 years if you're lucky) and then, if you have the stamina and the drive you become a working actor and blend into ensembles or do a mix of headlining gigs in smaller projects and character work. Some move behind the camera. Some teach. It just doesn't feel like it to us in real time because the stars we obsess over and talk about consistently are the ones who manage to perpetually excite the public or the Academy or critics or all three simultaneously so as not get to shoved off the mountain top of extremely consistent A list stardom (Kidman, Blanchett, Cruise, DiCaprio, etcetera)
One of the dark sides of a drawn-out season is that the longer you sit with every movie and performance the more nitpicking there is. So we move from collective wonder and awe about great acting (it's a seriously magical gift) to "he/she wasn't that great!" stance-taking and squabbles over who should win. So I recognize why people love Fraser's performance, and I think he's good, but I just think his competition is better and that's always frustrating. It's like when Mirren swept for The Queen... to me at least. Same situation. Good work... but awards over that competitive set?
ABE: As I’ve written before, I’m firmly in the pro-Fraser camp because I love his film, which I know many don’t. I’ve also enjoyed watching (or more accurately, hearing) Fraser on Doom Patrol the last few years, so I don’t feel like he’s been entirely out of the spotlight. It’s great to see him recognized for what I believe is a heartfelt performance. Yes, there’s a narrative, like Ke Huy Quan and also like potential winners Michelle Yeoh and Angela Bassett, but it also happens to be a great performance.
I cite the Meryl Streep/Viola Davis 2011 situation as a better reference for the Best Actress category, presuming that Blanchett still prevails. Chris’ fantasy scenario of Farrell winning is possible if this pans out like 2002, but I think Adrien Brody was really not in contention and just benefited from a vote split. Farrell was a theoretical front runner before he lost BAFTA. It’s distinctly possible that both Elvis and Banshees go home empty-handed (the former will probably win a few prizes), but that doesn’t make a Farrell win any more likely to prevent that from happening.
I feel more comfortable now than at any point in this race predicting Fraser, with Butler as a close second and Farrell very unlikely. There’s no chance Nighy or Mescal steals the win, is there?
CHRIS: I don't necessarily see a vote-split happening. To use 2002 as a reference point, Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson were both beloved former winners doing big showy work - one in a Best Picture nominee and one in a hit that received multiple Oscar nominations. Yes, Elvis and The Whale seemingly could fit into those buckets, but Butler and Fraser are playing two very different games. Does the Oscar want to coronate a new star or do they want to reward a comeback story.
In 2002, Adrien Brody was the odd man out, a newcomer that people were passionate about in a movie people loved (The Pianist was very close to winning Picture that year as momentum picked up in the final weeks). Colin Farrell could conceivably be the "most overdue" (after Bill Nighy of course), but since this is his first nomination, I don't think that narrative can take off. His campaign hasn't effectively separated him as an alternative to Butler or Fraser. Plus, small but mighty support for Paul Mescal in Aftersun (my 2nd favorite of the bunch) chips away at Farrell's chances. Come to think of it, Mescal might chip away at the "new star" angle that Austin Butler has been pushing.
I agree with Nathaniel's assessment of Fraser's performance, but I find the race still very much to be afoot. Voting is happening so close after Fraser's rousing SAG Awards speech, but I don't suspect that many Oscar voters actually think fondly of his career. If anything, new millennial voters may have nostalgic memories of George of the Jungle or the Mummy franchise. The negative reactions to The Whale may have kept it out of Best Picture, but it doesn't seem to have hampered Fraser's chances at winning acting. If anything, leaning on an "overdue" narrative might cause voters to ask the question "what is he actually overdue for?" To be fair, Fraser himself seems to be threading a more accurate and appealing needle. He's framing this as a new acting challenge that befell to him, a matinee actor who was looking for a new phase to his career. No wonder he won SAG, that's a compelling message to actors. I'm not sure that works with the broader Academy. Elvis mania continues to grow day over day. Craft voters may be more impressed by Butler's level of commitment and mimicry skill as Elvis Presley. If we see Elvis take Makeup & Hairstyling over The Whale, for example, I'd look for Best Actor to follow suit.
Switching gears from the main duo, what performance would you both vote for?
NATHANIEL: I think it's a strong category and, with the exception of Fraser, it's my own ballot (which is rare!). That said since the day I saw The Banshees of Inisherin it was Colin Farrell for me. Like many brilliant actors who also happen to be super attractive MOVIE STARS his gifts are foolishly taken for granted. It's always a special thrill when a great actor meets their match behind the scenes in an auteur. Auteur/Muse pairings are a gift throughout cinematic history.
Farrell just knows exactly what to do with the violent tragicomic needle that Martin McDonagh is so often threading. He gets and gives you everything about Padraic -- his intellectual limitations, his loyalty, his dark side, his feelings about friendship, his history with his sister, even his relationship with animals - while also just living in the scenes without any "I'M ACTING" grandeur. The latter can be a thrill in some circumstances/genres (hello Austin Butler) but would not work for this one. It's such an organic feat but that's the golden problem. Like many movie stars before him, he makes it look too easy so he'll have trouble winning the Oscar until he is more visibly spotted doing some BIG acting. This is his best performance since In Bruges, which he also deserved an Oscar nomination for. So he really should be at two nominations, one for each expressive eyebrow.
As my runner up, I'd go with Nighy. I confess I've never felt all that much affection for him as an actor before but I was really mesmerized by the minute detailing of his arc in this movie.
ABE: While I'm all in for Fraser, I do think that Butler was terrific, even if Elvis wasn’t an entirely memorable experience. I saw Living virtually at Sundance more than a year ago now and don’t remember much of it or Nighy’s performance even though I had positive things to say at the time. My feelings on Banshees are not positive but I can appreciate what Farrell is doing, and his awards season run has endeared me more towards him.
If I had to choose a second, it would be Mescal, who was a big part of what made Aftersun so hypnotic. My personal ballot includes undersung performers like the BAFTA-nominated Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) and Cooper Raiff (Cha Cha Real Smooth), but I’m just happy that my #1 pick is nominated and has a real shot to win.
Anything else to add on this category?
CHRIS: Farrell and Mescal were my top two male performances of the year, but I'd choose an entirely different set of actors to round it out. I agree with you about Daryl McCormack, Abe, and have a couple more to add.
For being a big Oscar movie, I'm shocked that my favorite part of The Fabelmans, Gabriel LaBelle, never seemed to be in the conversation. When faced with the unenviable task of bringing Steven Spielberg to life, LaBelle chooses to recenter him as a moody teen, struggling to find his footing at school and at home. It's a profoundly sensitive and winning performance. While I was mixed on the film, I can't deny Timothee Chalamet's magnetism in Bones and All. The minute he saunters into the frame, he steals the movie and gives it the rebellious and anarchistic edge that it was looking for. This final suggestion seems to be ineligible due to strange, arbitrary rules, but I loved Fire Island and feel that Joel Kim Booster (along with so many others in the cast, namely Bowen Yang) gave a terrific performance. He managed to make a legendary literary character like Lizzie Bennett feel so new and specific in the characterization of a modern gay man. It all felt so well observed and of the moment in a perfect way. Plus, Booster was the hub of the film that made the entire friendship feel real.
Now that we have come to the end of our discussion, it's time to lock in our predictions. Who will win, should win and who is a potential spoiler. My thoughts below:
- Will Win: Austin Butler - Elvis
- Should Win: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Spoiler (although he very much is neck and neck): Brendan Fraser - The Whale
NATHANIEL: Love your shout-outs. I'd also pour one out for Felix Kamerrer who I felt was very expressive taking the protagonist of All Quiet on the Western Front from foolish naif to shell shocked desperation and resignation.
- Will Win: Brendan Fraser
- Should Win: Colin Farrell
- Spoiler: Austin Butler
ABE: Nothing more to add from me aside from:
- Will Win: Brendan Fraser
- Should Win: Brendan Fraser
- Spoiler: Austin Butler
What say you, readers?