By Christopher James

For the first time, all members of the Roy family earned Emmy nominations, including eldest brother Connor, played by Alan Ruck.

When the Emmys fall for a show, they fall hard. Despite having over 100 categories, the Television Academy nominates less and less series each year. As Abe covered Thursday night and Team groused about a bit in their reactions, four shows racked up over 20 nominations each this year (Succession, The Last of Us, Ted Lasso, The White Lotus), up from three last year. Three of those four shows won Series prizes last year. The fourth (The Last of Us) competes this year for its first season. A year over year increase is a strong sign that momentum is on a show’s side. You can defeat a previous winner or stage a coup if you can leverage a large nomination haul to gain a foothold and mount an aggressive campaign. But campaigning will be mostly out the window this year given the strikes.

So what does the Emmy race look like now that nominations are out? Did any challengers emerge to overthrow incumbents Succession and Ted Lasso?

Comedy Series

🔺Who’s Up?🔺

All eyes were on two-time champion Ted Lasso when nominations were announced. Season three had a fair share of criticisms and the tides had turned on the Apple TV+ comedy. Surprise. None of those bad vibes made it to the television industry voters, as the show wound up with a staggering 23 nominations, 3 more than both of the previous seasons. This was enough to beat 30 Rock for the record of most nominations ever for a comedy series. It does seem like Ted Lasso has clinched the frontrunner status for its third Comedy Series statue. Yet, being a frontrunner is dangerous and it should watch out for some fellow nominees. Luckily, they come with their own bits of baggage.

In second place for nominations was The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel with fourteen nominations, up from 12 nominations last year. This is the same number of nominations it had when it won Best Comedy Series in 2017; however, it’s still a ways away from the 20 nominations it used to regularly get. It would have a better chance at a potential win had it rebounded with more nominations. For example, Tony Shalhoub has won Emmys in the past, but was shut out for this season.

Last year, it seemed like Abbott Elementary had the juice to challenge Ted Lasso for the win. The show held strong in season two in terms of quality, but that only amounted to one additional nomination this year (up to 8 nominations total). While it’s still doing well in acting, the lack of both a directing and writing nomination is concerning for a show that could’ve had the passion to mount a play for the win.

🔻Who’s Down?🔻

The biggest downgrade this year was for Only Murders in the Building. The Hulu comedy dropped six nominations year over year, from 17 last year to 11 this year. This drop in nomination came from key categories too. Steve Martin was noticeably dropped from the Lead Actor category and it no longer has a directing nomination. It has been nearly a full year since the show aired and the lack of momentum has taken the wind out of its sails when it comes to Emmys.

Despite being in its final season, the Emmys don’t seem eager to reward Barry with a arewell hug. The show continued to drop by 3 nominations, now down to 11 nominations. It’s still present in all the major categories, so it’s not down by much. However, there’s going to have to be a loud campaign if it wants to emerge with any wins.

The Bear has emerged as the likely challenger for Ted Lasso following Emmy nominations.🌟Enter New Challengers?🌟

Of the new shows, The Bear came on strongest with 13 nominations. Not only that, it earned nominations in all major categories, including Comedy Series, Directing, Writing, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and two Guest Actor slots. With the critically acclaimed second season recently aired, the show has the potential to be a major competitor for the win. It would be a departure for the Emmys, who have never skewed as dramatic as The Bear. Arguably, Fleabag is the darkest show that has won for comedy series and it still plays very much within the comedy sphere.

The other big winner among new series was Wednesday, which wound up with 11 nominations, including Jenna Ortega in Actress and Tim Burton in Directing. This is likely just a strong welcome hug for the popular series, rather than a sign it is coming for the top prize. Still, it’s an impressive haul.

Though it has the least nominations of the crowd, Jury Duty emerged as the biggest winner of Emmy morning. The “Freevee show that could” earned four very well deserved and unexpected nominations, notably for Series, James Marsden in Supporting Actor, Writing and Casting. Hopefully this encourages people to check out this inventive comedy and potentially earn Marsden a win in Supporting Actor.

Power Ranking

Ted Lasso
The Bear
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Abbott Elementary
Barry
Wednesday
Only Murders in the Building
Jury Duty

Drama Series

🔺Who’s Up?🔺

Succession did not show weakness in its final season. It increased its nomination total by two nominations, amounting to a total of 27 nominations this year, the most of any program this year. The watercooler drama seems poised to steamroll through the season, with a comical laundry list of nominations including 3 directing nominations, 14 acting nominations and a writing nomination. It’s an astounding haul that few shows can compete with.

One show that can compete with it is The White Lotus. Last year’s Limited Series winner switched over to Drama Series once it sent Tanya, played by Emmy winner Jennifer Coolidge, to Sicily for another season of murder and intrigue. The HBO show earned 23 nominations, even three more than it had last year in the Limited Series field, which can be less competitive at times. Almost the entire cast was nominated, as it filled up half the supporting actor lineup and five out of eight supporting actress slots. Succession has more of a narrative, but The White Lotus has a staggering cultural impact that the Emmys haven’t forgotten. It’s going to be a competitive player this year.

🔻Who’s Down?🔻

With HBO taking up so much oxygen, there was little room left for any other dramas. Previous winner The Crown took a precipitous nosedive, dropping from 24 nominations for its previous season (when it won) to just 6 nominations this year. This is a death toll for the prestigious Netflix series, which has always walked home with Emmy wins. A drop of 18 nominations signals that the Television Academy has moved on from the show and it will be hard to get them back on board.

Another more surprising drop happened for Yellowjackets, which many were hoping would up its nomination tally this year. Instead, it only earned three nominations - Series, Actress and Casting. This is down from seven nominations last year. There was buzz for Melaine Lynskey in Lead Actress, but this lack of support for the show will make a win against Succession’s Sarah Snook particularly challenging.

The Last of Us earned the second most nominations of any show this year, with 24 nominations.🌟Enter New Challengers?🌟

The Last of Us made a huge entrance to the Emmys with 24 nominations. The video game adaptation dominated conversation for months and is one of the most popular shows of the year. It would be foolish to count it out as a worthy challenger for Succession. Additionally, the wins for Game of Thrones illustrates that the Emmys aren’t afraid to reward genre shows. Unlike Ted Lasso, the tides don’t seem to be turning negative towards Succession. If it can continue to run a strong campaign, Succession will walk a tightrope to another series win. One or two missteps though, and much like the clickers, The Last of Us could strike and take the win.

Two other new shows broke into the Drama Series race. Andor took over The Mandalorian’s spot in this race, albeit with less nominations overall. In season one, The Mandalorian made a big splash with 15 nominations. However, Andor was able to receive coveted Directing and Writing nominations, which shows much support. Meanwhile, the Game of Thrones spinoff House of the Dragon squeaked into the series category, and little else. It was expected to earn acting and directing nominations, but only managed seven creative arts nominations in addition to Outstanding Drama Series. Both should just be happy to be nominated, as the real fight for the top prize is a three way HBO face-off between Succession, The White Lotus and The Last of Us.

What About Saul?

We can’t forget about Better Call Saul. The AMC Breaking Bad spinoff has made a name for itself and amassed a loyal group of fans who love it outside of its predecessor. While the Emmys have always liked the show, they have never embraced it fully or given it a win. This year, it earned seven nominations, which is the same tally it has had for four of its past six seasons. The greatest hope for the show is that it's able to muster enthusiasm for a writing win. Unfortunately, no major nomination tally gains means it’s likely not going to be a competitor in the Drama Series race.

Power Ranking

Succession
The White Lotus
The Last of Us
Better Call Saul
Andor
The Crown
House of the Dragon
Yellowjackets

Who do you think will win Outstanding Comedy and Drama Series at the Emmys? Let us know in the comments below.