By Ben Miller
The fall film festival season is upon us, but with a notable exception. The usual lineup of Hollywood A-listers are (mostly) absent due to studio greed and the continuing SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes. But so far, the date of the 96th Oscars haven't moved. Unless the strikes are resolved more quickly than anyone believes they will be, the best films and performances will have to go toe-to-toe without the benefit of a robust campaign.
But what does an Oscar campaign look like if you aren't allowed to campaign?
SAG-AFTRA rules do not allow striking actors to do promotional interviews. But, some actors have received waivers to talk about their films in a limited capacity. While the waiver system has had its fair share of criticism, no one has been roasted on social media for their behavior (thus far). As of now, it's much more perception than reality when it comes to toeing the strike line.
I am by no means an industry insider, but the few sources I have tell me the same thing: the strike isn't ending anytime soon. So, the question is: what are some of the various ways campaigning (or not campaigning) could work in the time of strikes?
Have a Great Head Start and/or Timing
"Barbenheimer" was the ubiquitous summer event for everyone. Both Barbie and Oppenheimer received largely positive critical reviews and bags of cash from filmgoers. When it comes to the end of the year, without the benefit of never-ending junkets and promotion, which films will automatically come to mind? Also, those actors had a good round of press already in the can before the strikes started. The promotional wheel had been spinning furiously before they had to clam up.
December releases have a tendency to be catnip for the Oscars anyway, but some shrewd release dates might bode well for the Oscars chances. With only a 16-day window from the end of the eligibility period (December 31) to the end of nomination voting (January 16th), films like the musical version of The Color Purple, Michael Mann's Ferrari, Sean Durkin's The Iron Claw, and George Clooney's The Boys in the Boat could rely on short-term word of mouth and find themselves with nominations.
Hope for the Best/Inspire Passion
Richard Linklater's Hit Man starring Glenn Powell debuted at the festivals as a surprise crowd-pleaser with Powell's performance being singled out. Where does that film go from here? Who gets the distribution, and will it be released in time? Will it be a big studio win with hopes of box office dollars, or will a smaller arthouse studio grab it? It might seem like we have a ways to go in the season, but the Oscars window only has around 100 days to go.
On the flip side, look at film like Celine Song's Past Lives. The film had a rapturous reception from critics, despite a smaller profile. In a normal year, Past Lives would be the passionate pick from critics groups and niche organizations that gets swallowed up by the big campaign dollars of other films. But not this year. Not only that, the studio behind Past Lives - A24, has agreed to all of SAG-AFTRA's demands. Which studio do you think would be getting waivers left and right? That's right... A24!
Have someone do the campaigning for you
This is where things get interesting. Writers and actors are on strike, but directors aren't. Any film with a smart campaign and a director that can push the narrative stands to get a boost. Take a look at Ben Affleck's Air from all the way back in April. The film received largely positive reviews and made a decent amount of money before moving over to Amazon Prime. Affleck has shown his willingness to press the flesh in the past. He can be the film's mouthpiece to get it the attention he wants.
Affleck isn't alone. Other stars like Bradley Cooper, Ethan Hawke, Michael Keaton, Anna Kendrick, Chris Pine, Kristin Scott Thomas, and Viggo Mortensen all premiered films they directed at film festivals. If any narrative forms for those films, the directors can do the pushing.
This runs into another dilemma. Usually Oscar campaigns are put on by studios and they have a tendency to be expensive. If the studios are unwilling to foot the bill, how much push does a film get? Does someone like Affleck do the work himself and pay the tab? If the studios do pay the way, what kind of resources are they going to give to actors they clearly have no desire to pay fairly?
This all leads to a season of unpredictability. Which, in the course of the standard Oscar cycle, would be refreshing if it weren't for the damage being done to the livelihoods of actors and writers. Now if studios would fairly pay the talent that creates their product, we could get back to the normal campaign cycle we all complain about and also long for.