Shed a tear for Andrew Haigh's Oscar hopes.
What many believed was bound to happen finally did. Despite Warner Bros. campaigning Barbie's script as original, an Academy committee formed by members of the Writers branch - Howard A. Rodman and Dana Stevens took precedence as governors, while Eric Roth recused himself - and chose to uphold the usual rules for IP-based material. That means Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach will have to compete in Best Adapted Screenplay, shaking up the race in a big way. The pink fantasy was the assumed frontrunner in the other category, facing off against The Holdovers as its biggest competition. Now, it's up against a veritable battalion of Best Picture contenders, including titles wrestling for the honor of nomination leader – Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things…
But there's also American Fiction, a likely nominee with a narrative swirling around a writer's crisis in both personal and professional circles. Nathaniel has it at his number one prediction, as locked as Nolan and Lanthimos' pictures. But Barbie seems sure to get that golden lock, too, making it a race between heavy hitters with little to no space for surprise. Gerwig's ascendance spells doom for Andrew Haigh's queered-up version of Taichi Yamada's ghost story, Jonathan Glazer's minimalist take on Martin Amis' The Zone of Interest, and Kelly Fremon Craig's Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. Shed a tear for them, whose chance depends on the branch contradicting the season's assumed trajectory. They've done it in the past, so hope remains, faint as it might be.
In Best Original Screenplay, Barbie's absence leaves a power vacuum that can benefit either longshots beyond the Best Picture race or some big names. The Holdovers now consolidates its frontrunner status, while Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall get ever closer to lock status. May December is one of the most talked about screenplays of 2023, but is it too risky for the Academy's taste? Maestro could secure another nod for its multi-hyphenated star and even become a surprise threat for the win if he gets snubbed elsewhere. Air, Saltburn, and The Iron Claw are other possibilities, lurking in the shadows, waiting for the opportunity to pounce and stake their claim on one of the five slots.
The guilds could shed light on this. Not the Writers Guild, however, since they've moved their nominees will be announced after the Oscars have had their say. The same goes for the ceremony proper, denuding them of their so-called precursor fame. This is a consequence of the strike of course and, either way, Barbie was deemed original by the guild. Some may disagree, but I love this voluntary repudiation of the awards timeline, announcing the WGA's value beyond the Oscar race. Hopefully, this will mean their choices are bolder than usual or, at the very least, less in step with the Academy's taste. Perhaps they can become a place to honor the great screenplays AMPAS overlooks. Time will tell.
How would you categorize Barbie? Original or Adapted?