The Film Experience

...after a brief holiday break, the Oscar Volleys continue with Elisa Giudici and Abe Friedtanzer on Best Supporting Actor...

Denzel Washington in GLADIATOR II | © Paramount Pictures

ELISA: This year’s Oscar race seems wide open for surprises, which, after years of things being more or less decided in advance, is pretty exciting, right? Unfortunately, due to local release schedules, I haven’t seen a few of the candidates, but I wouldn’t bet on anyone being "locked" exactly.

Take Denzel Washington, for example. He’s been widely praised for his performance in Gladiator II—arguably the only part of the film that everyone agrees is of high quality. It’s the classic, showy, theatrical role that could easily land an actor like Washington yet another nomination, especially given the respect and fame he commands...

If you can make such an over-the-top character work in a film that’s far from flawless, doesn’t that deserve recognition? Maybe this is the year we see several actors nominated without the boost of a Best Picture nomination?

On the flip side, Guy Pearce in The Brutalist gives off completely different vibes. He’s never really disappeared from the movies, but this role feels like the kind of Big Comeback that can really make waves. His talent lets him play into that narrative of the respected actor whose greatness we've maybe forgotten about. He might not have the massive popularity of Denzel, but his openness about being sidelined by Warner Bros. could give him that extra edge—or possibly backfire, who knows?

Guy Pearce in THE BRUTALIST | © A24

ABE: I do agree that both Washington and Pearce should have no trouble getting nominated since one has been honored so many times, including for films like Roman J. Israel, Esq. that otherwise had zero buzz, while the other has somehow never been nominated, with acclaimed performances in L.A. Confidential and Memento likely his closest would-be bids. While Gladiator II doesn’t seem to be a certifiable awards juggernaut, The Brutalist definitely is.

There’s a third lock in this category though those who vigilantly oppose category fraud will tell you that he doesn't belong here. That’s Kieran Culkin, riding a wave of lingering popularity from Succession. He has the added bonus of being great in a well-received film. A Real Pain may or may not show up in a handful of other categories. However the film performs on nomination morning, though, Culkin is in for sure.

After those three, things are less certain. There are definitely a few men people competing for the last two slots, and with groups like the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Association nominating six people, it’s hard to know who’s ahead. Who do you have next in line?

Yura Borisov in ANORA | © NEON

ELISA: My pick is Yura Borisov, though I must admit I’m surprised by my own answer. The general consensus seems to place him among the frontrunners to secure one of the two up-for-grabs slots in the lineup, thanks to his role in Anora (which, for once, is decidedly supporting by nature).

There’s little doubt about Borisov’s acting chops. Here, his role mirrors a narrative arc somewhat similar to his international breakout work in Finland's Compartment No. 6, with the added surprise of a character that is amusing yet understated. Early in the movie you might wonder, "Why cast Borisov in a secondary role?" only for the finale to provide the answer.

Borisov is undoubtedly the Russian actor of the moment—much more so than his co-star Mark Eydelshteyn—and one of the most acclaimed in the festival circuit within his age range. With a touch of cynicism, though, I wonder how much NEON's masterful campaigning for the film plays into his chances. Will the buzz around Mikey Madison’s remarkable performance help draw attention to Borisov as well? We’ve already seen him deliver outstanding performances that were completely overlooked. Sometimes, it’s also about being in the right film, and this Palme d’Or winner provides quite the head start.

Do you agree on Borisov? Who’s next on your list?

ABE: I do think that Borisov is terrific in the film. There was a point at which I thought that Anora could end up with multiple supporting actor nominations as a surefire Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture. I think that time has (slightly) passed, but I do feel that Borisov is safe. Eydelshteyn is also terrific and would be worthy.

Clarence Maclin in SING SING | © A24

That brings us to the final slot, and it's quite competitive. I'm rooting for Clarence Maclin, a formerly incarcerated individual who helps tell his own story in Sing Sing. But his Golden Globe miss, while not all that significant in terms of Oscar relevance, does remind us that he's not a "name," and there are plenty of other options for voters. Edward Norton is a three-time nominee and also happens to be terrific in the very late-breaking A Complete Unknown. He's popping up in places along with star Timothée Chalamet. There's also Jeremy Strong, fresh off an extended awards run for Succession with a very different but equally focused performance in The Apprentice. Will Trump's reelection matter for his nomination? I'm not sure.

I mentioned the Globes and CCA before, which, with six nominations, left off Maclin and Strong, respectively. As far as any other contenders go, I think that both September 5 and Conclave have a few good options but not enough attention has materialized around any of them. I'd love to hold out hope for Adam Pearson in A Different Man, but I don't think his Gotham and Spirit nods are enough to get him there, regardless of the quality of the performance.

Who do you have for the fifth slot, and is there anyone else on your radar?

ELISA: From this point on, it really feels like a guessing game, with predictions diverging on who will secure a spot in the final five. Will it be Edward Norton riding the Timothée Chalamet wave for A Complete Unknown? Or will Sing Sing claim another nomination with Clarence Maclin following in Colman Domingo’s footsteps? It seems to come down to who has the stronger momentum, buoyed by a powerful leading performance. If Conclave overperforms in nominations (and it might) even Stanley Tucci could find his way in.

But if Kieran Culkin is so locked in, also thanks to / but not only because of the Succession wave, my suggestion is: why not Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice ? That film, for obvious reasons, is this season’s true wild card. In promoting the film, Sebastian Stan has managed to cleverly and without stepping on anyone’s toes highlight how the film faced pressures and missed opportunities due to its “controversial” subject matter. I wonder if, in the privacy of the voting booth, this could work in his and Strong’s favor, in a race where everything could hinge on just a handful of votes.

ABE: All good points! But I think I'll go with this final five: Culkin, Pearce, Washington, Borisov, Maclin. What's your final list?

ELISA: Mhhhm, I’m sticking to the conservative side: Culkin, Pearce, Washington, Borisov—but I’ll swap in Strong for Maclin, just for variety’s sake.

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