Due to understandable circumstances, the awards season calendar has been thrown into disarray. Last week was supposed to be dominated by the Hollywood guilds announcing their nominees, but many chose to postpone such fanfare in the face of the LA wildfires. Still, there are two more guilds to account for now, as the VES and the WGA have issued press releases with their members' best-of-the-year picks. For those trying to predict the Oscars, the re-emergence of Dune: Part Two as a contender is a notable development, especially since Denis Villeneuve just received a Best Director BAFTA nomination. Then again, when discussing the Writers Guild, the sheer number of illegible contenders makes their precursor status a bit iffy…
Since we're all considering these nominations within the context of the film awards season, I'll limit the lists and commentary to the theatrical categories.
WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Documentary Screenplay
Congratulations to all the nominees, especially those who scrounged up some well-earned recognition thanks to the guild's strict rules. It's nice to see My Old Ass and Challengers get their day in the sun, though some might raise their brows at Civil War's appearance in Best Original Screenplay. It's notable that Saturday Night was eligible but didn't make it, a sign that the picture's chances are as good as dead.
In Adapted Screenplay, Queer's absence underlines the industry's resistance to Luca Guadaganino's superior 2024 film. If Daniel Craig nabs an Oscar nomination, we can assume he was fifth on the ballot. He's hanging by a thread in many people's predictions, and that thread is called SAG. If he hadn't secured that important precursor, most would've already dropped him from their predictions. It's a pity because Craig is legitimately great in Queer, delivering a performance of naked need, flop, sweat, and hurt, off-putting in its theatricality though never anything less than visceral.
Also, for what it's worth, Nosferatu was eligible. Nobody ever believed it could earn gold for its writing, but I must confess myself a fan of Eggers' insistence on rethinking the classic tale through his character's period-specific belief systems rather than our contemporary values and judgment.
VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY
Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature
Outstanding Visual Effects in an Animated Feature
Outstanding Character in a Photoreal Feature
Outstanding Character in an Animated Feature
Outstanding Environment in a Photoreal Feature
Outstanding Environment in an Animated Feature
Outstanding CG Cinematography
Outstanding Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project
Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature
Outstanding Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature
Outstanding Compositing & Lighting in a Feature
Outstanding Practical Effects in a Photoreal Project
Emerging Technology Award
Dune: Part Two is the nomination leader with seven nominations, positioning itself as the frontrunner. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes isn't far behind with six mentions, which should be enough industry support for pundits to lock it as a Best Visual Effects Oscar nominee. These results should put smiles on the faces of those few Better Man and Twisters fans out there.
One contender that did terribly here despite being shortlisted by the Academy was Wicked, whose only nomination came for its re-invention of the Emerald City of Oz. One should also note that The Substance got nothing at all, not even in the category meant to honor practical effects. Then again, blood geyser aside, most of those unholy visions might be deemed too closely tied to the makeup department to see recognition by the Visual Effects Society.
How do these WGA and VES nominations affect your Oscar predictions?