by Nathaniel R
Can ZOOTOPIA 2 overcome the Academy's resistance to animated sequels?
It's often hard to know from a distance whether a year will be competitive in Best Animated Feature or not. It isn't always based on the quality of the eligibility pool. The default situation is that the early hyped Disney or Disney/Pixar stays dominant from first buzz to Oscar night, whether there's week or strong competition (Coco and Toy Story 4, respectively, being good examples) though occassionally the Mouse House competitor that looks strongest from a distance concedes quickly to a less hyped sibling that proves more popular (Luca to Encanto or Moana to Zootopia). But in a solid amount of years the race eventually does get competitive albeit only between two films.What usually happens is that the original frontrunner manages to stave off an unexpectedly strong or deserving competition (Pinocchio vs Puss in Boots: The Last Wish or Soul vs Wolfwalkers). In the past two years, though, we've had a strong frontrunner that lost its strangehold on "Best" prizes when an international title soared in the 11th hour (Boy and the Heron vs Into the Spider-Verse and, even more dramatically, Flow vs Wild Robot). On rare occassions the race gets ultra competitive wherein three or more nominees feel possible (remember 2012?) only for the Academy to default to Pixar again. What kind of year will the 98th Academy Awards bring?
This year the crystal ball looks quite cloudy...
Can ELIO overcome its slow start with audiences?
DISNEY and DISNEY/PIXAR
The Mouse has been hugely dominant in the first 24 years of this category, collectively hogging 31% of all nominations and 60% of the all wins since 2001. To be fair, part of this is due to consistent quality but that's not the only reason. There is also the simply fact of voter laziness; titles that get seen the most have a leg up on underscreened competition, no matter how fabulous. If your branch members are all watching a lot of options, there will be more diversity. The traditionally safe bet this early on would be to say that the Mouse House will score 40% of the nominations this year, with Pixar's Elio and Disney's Zootopia 2 in the five-wide lineup. But will they? Elio has not been as enthusiastically received by audiences as previous Pixar films have been and, beyond the Toy Story franchise, Oscar voters have regularly proven averse to rewarding sequels in this category. It would be shocking if both were left out (there has never been a year without Disney in the mix) but neither are slam dunks at this point. Disney still might be able to dominate but this would be an ideal year for...
LAIKA, that wondrous stop-motion studio, to sweep in and finally win the Oscar they're long overdue for. The problem is that their next feature Wildwood is slated for 2026. We suppose there's a small chance it could be ready in time but stop motion animation is not exactly known for its swiftness in production.
DOG MAN
DREAMWORKS has snagged 14% of all Best Animated Feature nominations over the years but they rarely win (just twice) and they aren't nominated every year. Their most high profile releases this year are Dog Man and Bad Guys 2. The former does not feel like a slam dunk (though it's quite entertaining) given Oscar's current predilections in the category and the latter feels like a non-starter, at least in terms of awards. As noted this branch is averse to sequels, this sequels predecessor was not an awards player, and the big joke in the trailer i a poisonous fart (sigh).
KPOP DEMON HUNTERS
NETFLIX has been gobbling up animated films at an alarming rate. The streaming giant releases so many each year now that it's impossible to get a sense of which ones they will truly back for awards. Is there a plan or do they wait and see which ones spark engagement from their viewers? This year they've already released the romantic Lost in Starlight and the silly fun musically oriented KPop Demon Hunters.
FIXED
Later in the year they'll release the darkly comic The Twits, the fantastical In Your Dreams and Genndy Tartakovsky's R rated dog comedy Fixed. But which of those will they really get behind? It won't be all three.
Could MAGNIFICENT LIFE finally bring Sylvain Chomet his Oscar?
FRENCH POSSIBILITIES?
Despite the Academy's Disney addiction, this branch has proven fairly receptive to international titles and France tends to do well, scoring about 7% of the nominations in the category. This year France has three somewhat high profile possibilities. If Magnificent Life is great it would be wonderful to see three-time Oscar nominee Sylvain Chomet (most famous for Triplets of Belleville and The Illusionist) finally triumph. His latest is a biographical fantasy about the famous writer Marcel Pagnol. Another French production that could factor in is Oscar winner Michel Hazanavicius' (The Artist) World War II era The Most Precious of Cargoes but if it's strong contender why has buzz been so muted from its various festival showings?
ARCO
Finally the big "Crtisal" winner at the important animation festival, Annecy, was a film called Arco. It's a time travelling fantasy about a boy from the distant future who travels by rainbow. NEON will be releasing Arco in the US so we have to consider it a strong contender -- they're quite adept at Oscar campaigns. The starry French voice cast includes Louis Garrel and Swann Arlaud and Natalie Portman produced. A note of caution though: Annecy provides a beautiful window into what other countries are offering up in terms to lovers of ths cinematic medium, but it's not an Oscar precursor in a traditional sense and juried prizes at festlvals can always be misleading when it comes to future awards appeal. For instance, Latvia's Flow played at Annecy last year and lost to a film it later handily beat at the Oscars, Australia's Memoir of a Snail.
France has a big animation industry so those aren't the only possiblities. Another award winner is Little Amelie or the Character of Rain about a three-year old Belgian child living in Japan, which won the Audience Award at Annecy. Planètes (sometimes known as Dandelion's Odyssey) is another French produced award winner from Annecy and Cannes which is about four friends searching for a new home after Earth's nuclear annihilation.
MAYA, GIVE ME A TITLE
Finally, Oscar winner Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) premiered his first fully animated movie Maya, Give Me a Title at Berlinale earlier this year. It's an autobiographical film as it concerns Michel's attempts to keep in touch with his daughter overseas by sending her animated stories from her spontaneous suggestions. Pierre Niney does voicework.
SCARLET
JAPANESE POSSIBILITIES
Japanese anime is, of course, wildly popular globally. That enthusiasm doesn't extend to the Oscars, though. If it's not from Studio Ghibli, the Academy just isn't interested. Consider that they passed over films as popular as Weathering With You, Your Name, The First Slam Dunk, The Secret World of Arriety, and Suzume, in their years and some of those one the Japanese equivalent of Best Animated Feature in their home country! Of thise year's Japanese titles that might be eligible we're most curious about the following two: ChaO (by Asihru Aoki) which is an interspecies romance film and was a winner at at Annecy; The only Japanese film outside of Studio Ghibli to win Oscar's attention, was Mamoru Hosada's Mirai so we have to consider his latest Scarlet, which is about a revenge story about a princess trapped in the land of the dead. We're throwing caution to the wind and predicting it... as well as predicting that this year will skew more international in this category than usual.
LESBIAN SPACE PRINCESS
A FEW OTHER INTERNATIONAL FILMS WE'RE CURIOUS...
It's such a relief that outside of the US filmmakers seem to underrstand that animation can traverse all sorts of genres and doesn't even have to be aimed at children! There's an upcoming South Korean animated film called Square which is a romantic drama about a Swedish diplomat and a North Korean traffic officer. And Australia has an LGBTQ+ animated film called Lesbian Space Princess which won the Teddy at Berlinale. It's a comedy about an introverted princess out to save her ex-girlfriend from "Straight White Maliens". Fandor has US distribution rights.
ENDLESS COOKIE
Now that more countries are submitting animated features AND documentaries in Best International Feature Film, (Denmark's Flee famously scored a triple nomination this way), we wonder if Canada will consider Endless Cookie which is a memoir documentary from half brothers Seth (the animator) and Peter Scriver who share a father but different mothers and life experiences, Peter's mother being an indigenous woman. It previously played at Sundance, HotDocs, Annecy, and Thessaloniki (winning big prizes at three of those four festivals).
OLIVIA AND THE INVISIBLE EARTHQUAKE
We also want to highlight Spain's Olivia and the Invisible Earthquake because it's a stop motion film (and those are always in too short supply!). It's about a 12 year old girl whose family is evicted from their home. Norway has a new animated feature called The Polar Bear Prince which is up for the Amanda Awards in August.
We sense that enthusiasm about this category is waning with the public but perhaps we're wrong. Do you care abiout this artform and, if so, which 2025 toon are you most looking forward to?
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