State of the Race: Guilds! Guilds!! Guilds!!!
Wednesday, January 14, 2026 at 4:00PM
Cláudio Alves in ADG, ASC, Annie Awards, CDG, DGA, Oscar Predictions, Oscars (25), PGA, Predictions, guild awards

by Cláudio Alves

With so many guild mentions, BUGONIA may be strutting toward some surprise Oscar nods.

The Oscar nominations are ever closer, and it’s time to start making final predictions. So far, these awards round-ups have focused on critics groups, but the guilds have spoken, and pundits must listen. After all, AMPAS voters are industry people. Not that these honors matter only as data points for accurate predictions. They represent celebration among artistic peers and, sometimes, there are even surprises that have nothing to do with the Oscar race and are all the sweeter because of it. So, without further ado, let’s run the gamut from the American Society of Cinematographers to the Visual Effects Society, going through such major plaudits as the DGA and PGA awards…

Because we’re all focused on the film awards race, I’ve only included the honors related to cinema, not those for TV, theater, music videos, other short-form content and commercials.

 

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS

Theatrical Feature Film


Spotlight Award

 
As far as snubs are concerned, Hamnet is a glaring omission, though one wonders which of these films took its presumed spot. Perchance, Marty Supreme, which is surging at the right time. Then again, Khondji is close to living legend status, so his celebration shouldn’t be surprising. I’ve long made peace with the fact Laustsen’s Frankenstein lensing is bound for major recognition, but you’ll never convince me it’s anything less than a crime against cinema – sorry, not sorry. In any case, this is a better crop of nominees than last year’s selection, which included A Complete Unknown’s Phedon Papamichael and Wicked’s Alice Brooks. 

Speaking of Brooks, it should be noted that the Sinners DP is only the fifth woman to be nominated for the ASC’s main prize. She follows in the steps of the Wicked cinematographer, Mandy Walker, Ari Wegner and Rachel Morrison. She might even become the second woman to take the trophy after Walker in 2022, for Elvis. 

As ever, the Spotlight Award nominees are a much more interesting bunch, even though they’re not necessarily to my taste. Hopefully, more people seek out The Plague, Orphan and Amrum based on these ASC citations.

 

ANNIE AWARDS

Best Feature 

 
Best Feature – Independent

 
Best Short Subject


Best FX – Feature

 
Best Character Animation – Feature


Best Character Animation – Live Action


Best Character Design – Feature 

 
Best Direction – Feature

 
Best Music – Feature

 
Best Production Design – Feature

 
Best Storyboarding – Feature 

 
Best Voice Acting – Feature


Best Writing – Feature


Best Editorial – Feature


It’s always notable to see non-Hollywood productions take up space beyond the specific category they’re usually assigned to, the Independent Feature. Arco and Little Amélie are the two major vote getters, with Scarlet and Chainsaw Man representing anime. Though, it’s sort of surprising that the new Demon Slayer movie, recently Globe-nominated and a major box office hit worldwide, was blanked altogether. In other news, KPop Demon Hunters is the only Hollywood nominee for Best Directing, a curious state of affairs that’s also a first in the Annies’ history.

 

ART DIRECTORS GUILD

Contemporary Feature Film 


Period Feature Film


Fantasy Film


Glad to see that, at least, the Art Directors remembered The Phoenician Scheme. On the other hand, the American guilds' reluctance to recognize international film leads to indefensible results, as one can attest by the lack of Sentimental Value in Contemporary design, or No Other Choice for that matter. I’ve given up on seeing Resurrection get its deserved recognition, but it’s sad that The Testament of Ann Lee is also getting ignored despite superb period design on a budget and enough Hollywood pedigree to actually break into these conversations.

I’ve already praised their inclusion of Wes Anderson’s latest, and the same praise should be given to whoever voted for Wake Up Dead Man and Bugonia, two major production design efforts. Jack Fisk continues to be a king, and Fiona Crombie got a much-deserved double mention for the supremely distinct design aesthetics of Hamnet and Mickey 17. Now, that’s range.

 

BRITISH SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS

Cinematography in a Feature Film


I’m so happy for Seamus McGarvey that I’m almost willing to overlook the Danish man and his Netflix movie. Indeed, Die My Love is the only difference between the Brits and their American counterparts, taking the spot Train Dreams secured with the ASC. Again, Hamnet misses, which might mean nothing… or everything.

For those interested, the BSC has a much older history than the ASC, and yet, their track record in recognizing women cinematographers is even. Since 1953, they've only ever nominated three – Ari Wegner, who won for The Power of the Dog, Mandy Walker and this year’s Autumn Durald Arkapaw. What have the likes of Maryse Alberti, Natasha Braier, Anne Goddard, Maria von Hausswolff, Ellen Kuras, Hélène Louvart and Claire Mathon ever done to these voters?

 

CASTING SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Feature: Big Budget – Drama 


Feature: Big Budget – Comedy


Feature: Studio or Independent – Drama


Feature: Studio or Independent – Comedy 


Feature: Low Budget – Comedy or Drama 


Feature: International


Feature: Animated


This is a shocking snub for One Battle After Another, which many pundits are predicting as the winner of the inaugural Best Casting Oscar. Then again, there’s a clear chasm between that AMPAS branch and the guild, since even the international category bears no correlation with the few non-English-language titles that made the Oscar shortlist. Instead of Sentimental Value (which was recognized elsewhere by this guild), Sirat and The Secret Agent, the Casting Society went with Kokuho, Sound of Falling and The Fisherman. It’s a surprising turn of events, though not an unwelcome one. Heaven knows those three films are incredibly dependent on their casting, with the Japanese flick having the added challenge of portraying a very specialized type of performance art through its focus on kabuki theater.

 

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD

Excellence in Contemporary Film 


Excellence in Period Film 


Excellence in Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film


Excellence in Costume Illustration


It’s rather frustrating when these guilds parrot the same few titles that have been discussed all season rather than choose something specific and unexpected. In other news, I’m a bit miffed at the Contemporary Film selection. While not a bad lot by any means, there were so many more interesting choices they could have made. All that said, Atwood is probably going to win, and she deserves it. Very happy to see Summerville pop up. 

We do get some passion votes in Period Film, with Hedda and Downton Abbey showing up after being seemingly forgotten by most other voters so far in the season. And though I won’t complain about Turzanska finally getting recognition, I’m a bit bummed that it’s for Hamnet. She has done so much more interesting work over the years in films like The Green Knight and Pearl. Hell, she’s much more award-worthy this very season for her Train Dreams designs. Overall, I assume this category boils down to Carter versus Hawley.

Lindsay Pugh secures herself double nominations and could conceivably win two trophies, though I’m not sure How to Train Your Dragon is worth celebrating. Her work is mostly based on direct adaptation of pre-existing designs, as this is one of the most faithful shot-for-shot live-action remakes of animated features Hollywood has yet produced. Anyway, congratulations on another CDG trophy, Paul Tazewell. Wicked remains the one to beat.

 

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA

Feature Film 


First-Time Theatrical Feature Film 


Documentary Film


Before everyone starts freaking out, it should be noted that the Academy’s directors branch has a much greater liking for international cinema than the DGA. In other words, I fully expect that, at least, one of these nominees will drop in favor of some NEON-backed auteur. But who will it be? Anderson and Coogler feel like locks, but everyone after them seems both likely and a viable snub

Going beyond Oscar punditry, the first-time director lineup is lovely, to the point it includes a non-English-language film in the form of The President’s Cake, one most assured debut. My vote would go to Lighton or Hadi, but I’m guessing Victor has this in the bag.

 

 

MAKE-UP ARTISTS & HAIR STYLISTS GUILD

Best Contemporary Make-Up 


Best Period and/or Character Make-Up 


Best Special Make-Up Prosthetics 


Best Contemporary Hair Styling


Best Period and/or Character Hair Styling


No The Alto Knights, Kokuho, Nuremberg, or The Ugly Stepsister, though they all made it to the Academy’s top ten. I guess, by this point, reiterating the matter of how local all these guilds feel is as redundant and repetitive as the flood of same-same winners we get from regional critics groups. Still, the Japanese and Norwegian films are such makeup showcases that it’s hard not to feel a tad bitter about their absence here. The same could be said about horror, in general, since that’s one genre where makeup is often front and center. And yet, behind the frontrunner Sinners, the Gothic romance of Frankenstein and Weapons, scary movies are unrepresented. Where’s Bring Her Back or 28 Years Later? Perhaps including all those movies would lead to an overabundance of horror, but that would feel like justice after decades ignoring it.

On the bright side, it’s fun to see Superman recognized for both the fun effects-driven cosmetics and those movie star good looks, that perfect raven curl over Corenswet’s brow and the slight distortion of the hero’s imperfect clone. The same goes for the comedic stylings of The Naked Gun, those whacky Tilda Swinton dos in The Ballad of a Small Player, the epilogue mortifications in Eddington.

 

MOTION PICTURE SOUND EDITORS

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Dialogue/ADR


Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Effects/Foley 


Outstanding Achievement in Music Editing – Feature Motion Picture


Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Animation 


Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Documentary


Outstanding Achievement in Music Editing – Documentary


Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature International


A very good showing for Oscar frontrunners Sinners and One Battle After Another. A very surprising shut-out of Warfare, though I guess it makes sense since the film also failed to make it into the Academy’s shortlist. However, Avatar and Superman made it into AMPAS’ good graces, yet are similarly absent. Same goes for the Springsteen movie, though that’s less glaring.

Historically, the effects category has the strongest Oscar correlation for those interested in predictions. With that in mind, it might be safe to lock down F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another and Sinners as future Best Sound nominees. That leaves one spot open, since Anemone is presently ineligible as it’s out of the category’s top ten. Mission: Impossible might be the logical one to sub in, though the passion behind Sirat might do it instead. That film is represented in this guild’s international category, which also includes the brilliance of Sound of Falling, whose mix made for some of the year’s most haunting aural landscapes.

 

PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA

Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures


Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures 


Outstanding Producer of Documentary Motion Pictures


Like the DGA, the Producers Guild usually has a similar taste to Academy voters, though they tend to play it safer and more Hollywood-centric than AMPAS. So, that’s horrible news for Avatar and Wicked. If they can’t make it here, then it’s unlikely they’ll make it into the Best Picture top ten. That being said, the difference in sensibility between guild and Oscar voters means their lineups rarely match 100%. Expect one or more of Neon’s international crop to make the cut. It is, however, hard to predict who’ll fall behind from this decad. F1 and Weapons feel like the more populist choices and, consequently, the most vulnerable. Bugonia and Train Dreams may also be on the chopping block come Oscar nomination morning, though the industry seems to be behind them so far.

It’s very notable that, from the season’s hottest animated contenders, Demon Slayer was the international production to which the PGA offered an olive branch. I guess those box office numbers were too good for this producers’ association to resist. But then, shouldn’t Ne Zha 2 also get some flowers?

 

SET DECORATORS SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Best Achievement in Décor/Design of a Contemporary Feature Film 


Best Achievement in Décor/Design for a Period Feature Film


Best Achievement in Décor/Design of a Fantasy or Science Fiction Feature Film


Best Achievement in Décor/Design of a Comedy or Musical Feature Film


Got to be honest and admit that it feels a tad unfair for the Set Decorators Society to include the production designer among the nominees, when the Art Directors Guild does the set decorators no such courtesy. Anyway, many of the same films already mentioned by the other, design-focused guilds appear on this list. Jay Kelly is probably the biggest surprise among these picks, all things considered. Since those two Globe nominations, it’s all been downhill for the Baumbach comedy.

In terms of great choices, one should celebrate Roofman’s recent period precision, the toy store mess as essential as the domestic details. And then, there’s the Kiss of the Spider Woman mention. Glad one guild remembered this musical existed. Was hoping Atwood was a big enough name for the CDG to have it on their radar, but this will do.

 

SOCIETY OF COMPOSERS & LYRICISTS

Outstanding Original Score for a Studio Film


Outstanding Original Score for an Independent Film 


Outstanding Original Song for a Dramatic or Documentary Visual Media Production


Outstanding Original Song for a Comedy or Musical Visual Media Production 


Hollywood composers and songwriters remain faithful to Diane Warren, and that’s why we’ll never stop seeing her up for Oscars she does not deserve. In other news, Wicked being eligible for Original Score honors remains an inexplicable aberration. And I can’t articulate how sad it is to see The Testament of Ann Lee ignored by this particular guild.

Still, enough with complaining. Bugonia making it in here is a fantastic choice, with Fendrix’s score being one of the picture’s best elements. Lower-profile movies like To Kill a Wolf and Out of the Nest should benefit from this shout-out, and perhaps the song categories could help Oscar pundits see what’s to come. Presuming “Golden” and “I Lied to You” are locks, along with the obligatory Warren tune, what’s next in the Academy’s priorities? It may be Sara Bareilles’s moving song for the even more moving Come See in the Good Light or Ed Sheeran’s contribution to the vast F1 soundtrack. It may be the Wicked duo, though that seems less likely by the day.

 

VISUAL EFFECTS SOCIETY

Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature 


Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature


Outstanding Animation in an Animated Feature


Outstanding Character in a Photoreal Feature 


Outstanding Character in an Animated Feature


Outstanding Environment in a Photoreal Feature 


Outstanding Environment in an Animated Feature


Outstanding CG Cinematography


Outstanding Model in a Photoreal or Animated Project


Outstanding Effects Simulations in a Photoreal Feature


Outstanding Effects Simulations in an Animated Feature 


Outstanding Compositing & Lighting in a Feature 


Emerging Technology Award 


Let’s get the Oscar chatter out of the way. From the ten shortlisted titles AMPAS picked, two received zero nominations – The Electric State and Frankenstein. Avatar is the nomination leader here, and presumed frontrunner, while The Lost Bus appears remarkably loved for a picture many had already dismissed.

 In some ways, this is rather pleasing to see, as this guild actually seems invested in the craft at hand rather than simply co-signing the same titles that everyone’s been discussing already. How else does one explain surprising additions like Together or Dongji Rescue? Personally, I’m very happy for all the love Elio received from this group. Its effects are a highlight, often more impressive than those seen in most of this year’s effects-driven live-action blockbusters.

 

Next, on State of the Race, there are BAFTA longlists to discuss, along with even more regional critics groups. Someone save me from regional critics groups!

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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