by Eric Blume
Going lead was a risky move for Chase Infiniti, but it's paying off.
SAG Award nominations (for the newly-rebranded “The Actor Awards”…oy vey) were announced today. As usual, they are pretty lame.
The key thing to remember here is that the voting body for the SAG Awards consists of about 160,000 members. This number includes a large number of people who, for example, might have stood in the background of an insurance company commercial, or did a promo spot for a dishwater detergent brand. So, let’s just say these are not the most… discerning… group of people, if you know what I’m saying. And while there is some crossover between SAG Award voters and Oscar voters, it's not as big as you might think...
It's basically why you see no actors from Sentimental Value, no Wagner Moura. Actors who will absolutely be getting Oscar nominations in a few weeks. The majority of these 160,000 voters are not watching international films and their tastes are purely commercial. Almost none of the performers from foreign films who received Oscar nominations in past years (Antonio Banderas, Fernanda Torres, Sandra Hüller, Penélope Cruz) were recognized at the SAG Awards.
They also don’t watch a wide variety of movies, or a large number of them. There is a very small number of total titles mentioned in the nominations overall… they watch less and then pick their choices from those few films. So much so that One Battle After Another broke the record for most SAG nominations for a single film project ever - a cumulative even nominations across six categories.
Let’s take a look at the main awards:
Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture
- “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
- “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
To the point of watching very few films, they evidently all caught Frankenstein, because its inclusion here is a real surprise. Even if you’re a fan, as I am, you don’t in any rational state of mind think that it includes some of the best acting in a film this year. It’s exciting that Elordi’s wonderful performance has officially caught on, but outside of him, the acting is… serviceable at best. It’s a bit of a preposterous nomination. The other four films are firmly entrenched in the Best Picture conversation, so no surprises.
Male Actor in a Leading Role
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
- Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Chalamet and DiCaprio are locks for Oscar noms, and Jordan would at this point be a surprise snub if he’s excluded. The nomination is great news for Ethan Hawke, as his film is tiny. All this nomination means is that people are seeing Blue Moon, or at least have heard about it and are voting because they like him. That’s what he needs to translate this into an Oscar nomination. Plemons is probably one of the biggest surprises of the day, not because of his performance (which is spectacular), but because Bugonia is a bit of a wild card in the race overall. This is helpful for him, but Wagner Moura will definitely be on Oscar’s list next month, and Joel Edgerton is surely ranking sixth or seventh anytime he’s not making the cut: they’re the other two big contenders here. At this point, it would be a bit of a shock to see Dwayne Johnson or George Clooney go the distance.
Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
- Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
- Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
I’m still surprised to see Chase Infiniti make the cut here: I personally think it’s a result of overall love for One Battle, and perhaps that will carry her to Oscar as well, but I’m still not convinced. Buckley and Byrne seem like the two most likely to be recognized by AMPAS, and it seems there’s enough sustained love for Emma Stone to get her fifth (very well-deserved) career nomination. Hudson is a real wild card: I could see her making it but can also see her tanking beyond this. Renate Reinsve will make Oscar’s list for sure. The question is if some of the actresses not included here can take that fifth slot: Amanda Seyfried, Cynthia Erivo, Jennifer Lawrence, Tessa Thompson. Right now it’s not looking great for those four ladies, but perhaps BAFTA (which has a much, much higher crossover rate in voters) will help clarify with their longlists.
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
- Miles Caton, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
- Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
- Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Del Toro, Elordi, Mescal, and Penn have shown up everywhere and at this point, it would be a bit of a surprise if they didn’t make the Oscar slate. I’m certain that Stellan Skarsgård will make the Oscar list too, and the category feels fairly locked. If that IS our Oscar Supporting Actor lineup, those are five stunning (mostly lead) performances, but we shall see. I think at end of day, Miles Caton, Delroy Lindo, Adam Sandler, Andrew Scott and several others will be sitting this one out.
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
- Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
- Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
- Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Since at least one of the Sentimental Value actresses (Inga or Elle) will be on the Oscar list (I’m still thinking both of them), this race is still pretty volatile. It appears Madigan really will be able to pull off her nomination (and a win maybe, too???) as she’s shown up everywhere. Taylor seems set for her nom as well. Mosaku and A’Zion are less likely, their inclusion here an indication of the guild’s affection for their films overall. Both could also make it, surely (Mosaku has been named throughout the season, and A’Zion could be this year’s Monica Barbaro), but it’s a tight race. I’m wondering if Grande will be able to sneak by, seeing the fade-by-the-day lack of support for her film. And I think it looks pretty dead for Gwyneth Paltrow, Glenn Close, Emily Blunt, and Regina Hall.
Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
- F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
- “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
- “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
No big surprises here either. It’ll be curious to see if the voters go the way of the pictures they loved overall, or more in the F1/MI direction, which included many more actual stunts.
TV Categories
Since the SAG Nominations are so reflective of the recent Emmy Awards, with really no surprises whatsoever, there’s no need to go category by category. There’s nothing to say about these performances that hasn’t already been said, and none of the eventual winners will likely be particularly exciting. Not that there’s not superb acting in every single category, but to Nathaniel’s point, the way the TV cycle plays out, it feels like we’re talking about the same batch of nominees for a good solid year. Perhaps Michelle Williams will be the surprise winner for her incredible job in Dying for Sex? Ah, probably not.
What do you make of this year's SAG nominations? Sound off in the comments.