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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog


Predictions as of - Nov 17th
SUBMISSION CHARTS - 83 Official Contenders

Pt. 1 Afghanistan through Ethiopia - 25 submissions 
Pt. 2 Finland through Nepal -30 submissions
Pt. 3 The Netherlands through Venezuela -28 submissions

LET'S PREDICT THE "FINALIST" LIST
That list precedes the Nominated Shortlist and will narrow the field from 83 to 9 films from which AMPAS will then choose 5 nominees. We wish, for the sake of empathy and symmetry that their finalist list would be 15 wide like Documentary but we don't always get what we want.

So herewith, in order (for entertainment purposes only) TFE's assumptions about the 15 most likely films.

Tier 1 - Most Likely For Finalist List?

Ida
Pawel Pawlikowski
POLAND
Timbuktu
director
MAURITANIA

Wild Tales
Damian Szifron

WILD TALES

Force Majeure
Ruben Ostlund

SWEDEN

Two Days One Night
Dardennes Bros

BELGIUM

A major hit at the US arthouse and a potential winner. Stands out from the crowd for brevity, impact and aesthetic
People are really impressed with this one and wet-eyedwhen they leave it, too. It could become a threat for the win.
This outre comedy is memorable and plays great with a crowd - a bonus since they don't watch this category on screeners
One of hte year's most acclaimed festival hits. Might be too chilly for Oscar but on the other hand its quite funny and beautifully produced
Oscar hasn't caught the Dardennes bug but Cotillard could help. Then again it might feel slight to them since they often like huge scope
Tier 2 -And...

Leviathan

RUSSIA

Mommy
Xavier Dolan

CANADA

Behavior
Ernesto Daranas

CUBA

Tangerines
Damián Szifron
ESTONIA

Human Capital
Paolo Virzi

ITALY

This angry political film about a fisherman losing his beloved home to corrupt government is engaging, darkly funny and critically acclaimed. Okay. Let's get it out of the way: Dolan is too young, too queer, too aggressive, too vulgar for AMPAS love. BUT this is widely regarded as his best film. Executive committee save? Oscar loves old / young person paired dramas in this category. Bonus points: the film about a teacher and troubled student is very good and lingers emotionally The people who've seen this war time drama about a farmer and a wounded man seem to be very very fond of it. It'll be a surprise only in that it's low profile. Italian cinema is second only to France in Most-Nominated. This one was even more popular than last year's winner The Great Beauty at home.
Tier 3 - Potential Spoilers

Saint Laurent
Bertrand Bonello

FRANCE

Gett
Ronit Elkabetz

ISRAEL

White God
Kornel Mundruczo

HUNGARY

Beloved Sisters
director

GERMANY

Winter Sleep
Nuri Bilge Ceylan

TURKEY

It's very gay/risque for AMPAS but they're far more partial to French cinema than any other kind. So... Israel has been popular with Oscar in recent times, Elkabetz is a familiar face and very talented and they love a courtroom drama. This allegorical wild dog thriller could be an executive committee pick if the committee at large doesnt go for it. This branch has often been kind fo lush costume dramas and this one is big, romantic and spans decades and 3 hour run time. Ceylan isn't eactly a crowd pleaser but this was hot at Cannes and seems likely to be an executive committee pick.

Or Surprises from...?
Egypt (Factory Girl), Hong Kong (The Golden Era), Iceland (Life in a Fishbowl), The Phillipines (Norte: The End of History), Venezuela (The Liberator)

Anyway there are so many films on the...

SUBMISSION CHARTS 

Pt. 1 Afghanistan through Ethiopia
Pt. 2 Finland through Nepal
Pt. 3 The Netherlands through Venezuela