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Amy Adams for Janis Joplin

"It's baffling to me that Amy Adams will potentially have as many nominations as Blanchett, Winslet, Maggie Smith, Vanessa Redgrave, Thelma Ritter, Deborah Kerr, Sissy Spacek, and Glenn Close. This is weird, right?" -Aaron

"What is happening with Nina Arianda's Janis film with Sean Durkin? It's still listed as "announced" on her IMDB. Are we to assumed that it is a lost cause?" -Ryan


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87th Oscars. The Oscar Contenders of 2014 - For prediction, discussion and entertainment purposes only. This is not a endorsement of quality work, especially since no one has seen the pictures yet!

 discuss on the blog

Predictions as of - Nov 17th
SUBMISSION CHARTS - 83 Official Contenders

Pt. 1 Afghanistan through Ethiopia - 25 submissions 
Pt. 2 Finland through Nepal -30 submissions
Pt. 3 The Netherlands through Venezuela -28 submissions

That list precedes the Nominated Shortlist and will narrow the field from 83 to 9 films from which AMPAS will then choose 5 nominees. We wish, for the sake of empathy and symmetry that their finalist list would be 15 wide like Documentary but we don't always get what we want.

So herewith, in order (for entertainment purposes only) TFE's assumptions about the 15 most likely films.

Tier 1 - Most Likely For Finalist List?

Pawel Pawlikowski

Wild Tales
Damian Szifron


Force Majeure
Ruben Ostlund


Two Days One Night
Dardennes Bros


A major hit at the US arthouse and a potential winner. Stands out from the crowd for brevity, impact and aesthetic
People are really impressed with this one and wet-eyedwhen they leave it, too. It could become a threat for the win.
This outre comedy is memorable and plays great with a crowd - a bonus since they don't watch this category on screeners
One of hte year's most acclaimed festival hits. Might be too chilly for Oscar but on the other hand its quite funny and beautifully produced
Oscar hasn't caught the Dardennes bug but Cotillard could help. Then again it might feel slight to them since they often like huge scope
Tier 2 -And...



Xavier Dolan


Ernesto Daranas


Damián Szifron

Human Capital
Paolo Virzi


This angry political film about a fisherman losing his beloved home to corrupt government is engaging, darkly funny and critically acclaimed. Okay. Let's get it out of the way: Dolan is too young, too queer, too aggressive, too vulgar for AMPAS love. BUT this is widely regarded as his best film. Executive committee save? Oscar loves old / young person paired dramas in this category. Bonus points: the film about a teacher and troubled student is very good and lingers emotionally The people who've seen this war time drama about a farmer and a wounded man seem to be very very fond of it. It'll be a surprise only in that it's low profile. Italian cinema is second only to France in Most-Nominated. This one was even more popular than last year's winner The Great Beauty at home.
Tier 3 - Potential Spoilers

Saint Laurent
Bertrand Bonello


Ronit Elkabetz


White God
Kornel Mundruczo


Beloved Sisters


Winter Sleep
Nuri Bilge Ceylan


It's very gay/risque for AMPAS but they're far more partial to French cinema than any other kind. So... Israel has been popular with Oscar in recent times, Elkabetz is a familiar face and very talented and they love a courtroom drama. This allegorical wild dog thriller could be an executive committee pick if the committee at large doesnt go for it. This branch has often been kind fo lush costume dramas and this one is big, romantic and spans decades and 3 hour run time. Ceylan isn't eactly a crowd pleaser but this was hot at Cannes and seems likely to be an executive committee pick.

Or Surprises from...?
Egypt (Factory Girl), Hong Kong (The Golden Era), Iceland (Life in a Fishbowl), The Phillipines (Norte: The End of History), Venezuela (The Liberator)

Anyway there are so many films on the...


Pt. 1 Afghanistan through Ethiopia
Pt. 2 Finland through Nepal
Pt. 3 The Netherlands through Venezuela