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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 


Tier 1 - Prediction


Alfonso Cuarón (2 noms for writing)

Even though it's strength is more in the sucession of images, than it's observational year-in-the-life writing, the writer's branch loves Cuaron


The Favourite
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

Seems like a done deal unless something weird goes awry


Green Book
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayed Currie, Peter Farerely
(never nom'ed)

Never underestimate a funny crowd pleaser with a weighty topic.


Adam McKay
1 nomination for writing

If the movie is the last minute powerhouse to shake up the race (or, we suppose even if it's not)

Eighth Grade
Bo Burnham
(never nominated)

if A24 pushes, here's a perfect place to reward this funny fresh wholly contemporary take on the coming of age genre


Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

First Reformed
Paul Schrader
(never nominated if you can believe that)

If they want to correct past slights of Schrader for this sophisticated success

At Eternity's Gate
Jean Claude Carriere (3 noms for writing & 1 honorary) & Julian Schnabel
(never nom'ed for writing)

The writers branch loves Carriere


Isle of Dogs
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Jason Schwartzman, Kunichi Nomura

If there's a campaign to revive interest

Alfonso Cuaron (2 noms for writing)

If the writers branch wants Cuaron to get a ton of nominations for this (it's more visual then written per se)


What They Had
Elizabeth Chomko (never nominated)

If the campaign is sufficient and people are in the mood for a well honed family drama


Tier 3 - Other Originals

The Mule
On the Basis of Sex
A Quiet Place

Sorry to Bother You

Welcome to Marwen



Tier 1- Prediction


First Man
Josh Singer (1 nom & win) and Nicole Perlman (never nominated)

Based on the 2005 biography by James R Hansen "First Man: The Life of Neil A. Armstrong"

If Beale Street Could Talk
Barry Jenkins (1 nom for writing)

Based on James Baldwin's 1974 novel about a young pregnant woman in Harlem whose fiance is accused of rape.

Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty (never nominated)

Based on "Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Memoirs of a Literary Forger" by Lee Israel. Melissa McCarthy stars.

Spike Lee (1 nom for writing), David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott (never nominated)

An adaptation of the memoir by Ron Stallworth about being a black officer undercover in the Klu Klux Klan


Gillian Flynn (never nominated) and Steve McQueen (never nominated for writing)

BasedAdapted from the characters created by Lynda La Plante for the TV miniseries Widows. 


Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

Paul Dano and Zoe Kazan (never nominated)

Based on Richard Ford's novel about a young man seeing his parent's marriage fall apart in the 1950s.

Crazy Rich Asians
Peter Ciarelli and Adele Lim (never nominated)

Occassionally the writers branch likes to honor big hits. Here's a chance to do that.

A Star is Born
Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth, Will Fetters

Based on the earlier films of the same name.

Boy Erased
Joel Edgerton (never nominated)

Based on the book by Garrard Conley about a preacher's son sent to a conversion camp for gay kids. Could be a tearjerker and the cast is A list.

Black Panther
Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole

Based on the Marvel characters

Tier 3 - Other Key Adaptations


Beautiful Boy
Death of Stalin
The Frontrunner
Incredibles 2
The Kindergarten Teacher
The Sisters Brothers
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
Miseducation of Cameron Post
Old Man and the Gun
A Star is Born