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Why No One Can Win "Best Picture" This Year

"I really don't see any of these movies as Best Picture Oscar material. "Roma" is the most artsy.
"Green Book" the most satisfying. "The Favourite" lost me with that WTF ending." -Jaragon

"All I know is there are at least 3 plausible outcomes for BP this year, and that's pretty unusual. I won't be surprised if Roma, Green Book, or Blackkklansman take it. " - Rob

"A foreign language film winning BP is weirdo, but everything is going to be weirdo this year." - Fabio

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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog 

AND THE NOMINEES ARE...
PREDICTIONS  IN BOTH WRITING CATEGORIES
(SCROLL DOWN FOR ADAPTED)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

First Reformed
Paul Schrader
1st nomination!

The Favourite

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
1st nominations

Green Book
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayed Currie, Peter Farerely
1st nominations

Roma

Alfonso Cuarón
3rd nomination for writing 

Vice
Adam McKay
2nd nomination for writing | 1 previous win for writing

 

 

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN?

 We originally suspected The Favourite would walk away with this but after Green Book's win at the Globes and it and Roma's overall strength in Best Picture, plus Paul Schrader's first nomination for First Reformed, and Vice being very much a writer's film... who the hell knows... we'll think some more on this, 

 

WHAT SHOULD WIN?

 First Reformed and The Favourite would both make honorable winners. They're sophisticated, they're thinking deeply about their subject matter, and they're devastasting and devastatingly sharp-witted, respectively, in very inimitable ways. 

 

WHAT WAS LEFT OUT?

Eighth Grade and Sorry to Bother You, both debut films from obviously talented new writer/directors were often cited for their delicious screenplays but it didn't convert into Oscar nominations.
 

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
The Coen Brothers
(7th nom in writing | 2 wins for writing)

 

BlacKkKlansman

Spike Lee (2nd nom for writing), David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, and Kevin Willmott (1st nominations for writing)

 An adaptation of the memoir by Ron Stallworth about being a black officer undercover in the Klu Klux Klan

 

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty (1st nominations)

Based on "Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Memoirs of a Literary Forger" by Lee Israel. Melissa McCarthy stars.

If Beale Street Could Talk
Barry Jenkins 
(2nd nomination for writing | 1 previous win)

 Based on James Baldwin's 1974 novel about a young pregnant woman in Harlem whose fiance is accused of rape.

A Star is Born
Bradley Cooper (1st nomination for writing), Eric Roth (5th nomination for writing | 1 previous win), Will Fetters (1st nomination)

Based on the earlier films of the same name

.

 

 

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN?

 Tough to say but might Spike Lee finally win his competitive Oscar here given that Best Picture nomination for BlacKkKlansman?

 

WHAT SHOULD WIN?

 Our heart is with Can You Ever Forgive Me?'s layered character study, and emotional crisis. It's funny. It's soulful. It gets so much right about writers, queer people, and NYC in the 1990s. 

 

WHAT WAS LEFT OUT?

Color us a bit surprised that the surge of love for Leave No Trace in the media in the last week of voting didnt make an impact in this category. Another critical darling left out was Death of Stalin and there was always the chance that Black Panther or Crazy Rich Asians  might convert their popularity into an Oscar nod in this category. But it was not to be.