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91st Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2018 (for the 2019 Ceremony) - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

 

December 9th Predictions
 
PREDICTIONS IN ALL THE VISUAL CATEGORIES
(SCROLL DOWN FOR ADDITIONAL CHARTS)

 

COSTUME DESIGN

Tier 1 - Prediction

BLACK PANTHER
Ruth E Carter
(2 nominations)

People have been chanting "Wakanda Forever" all year and her costumes are deliciously bold. If she receives a third nomination she'll tie Octavia and Viola as most Oscar nominated woman of color

THE FAVOURITE
Sandy Powell
(12 noms | 3 wins)

BIFA Winner

Queen Anne's court should give Powell plenty to work with and Academy voters L-O-V-E films about royalty in costume design. That said we're still surprised Lanthimos is doing a costume drama!

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
Alexandra Byrne
(4 noms | 1 win)

This story (albeit in subplot form) has already won the Oscar for the very same designer for Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007). Will the costume branch feel its a retread or go for it?

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Sandy Powell
(12 noms | 3 wins)

Sandy Powell is sure to put a colorful lux spin on this classic property. 13th nomination? Could she even win?

IF BEALE STREET...

Caroline Eselin
(never nom'ed)

If Oscar responds to its colorful melancholy aesthetic. It could make a grand showing in craft categories, actually.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

FIRST MAN
Mary Zophres
(2 nominations)

Zophres's Oscar record isn't half what it should be but her work is often arguably too subtle for Oscar's love of MOST. But if this one is a frontrunner she could surface for dressing astronauts and their wives in the 1960s

FANTASTIC BEASTS 2

Colleen Atwood
(12 noms | 4 wins)

Her win for the first entry in this Harry Potter spinoff was a surprising Oscar choice. Newt never changes costumes but she has some new characters to work with. Will they go for it a second time?

BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
Julian Day
never nominated

Will the design guild love the recreation of Freddie's unique fashions? It's possible given the overall popularity of the film.

THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS

Jenny Beavan
10 nominations | 2 wins

She's certainly on a tear lately. British royal dramas, Post apocalypse desert wear, and now Disney ballet fantasy. Most Costumes often helps.

GREENBOOK
Betsy Heimann
never nominated

The Best Picture heat always helps movies in the craft categories though we wish each branch would think about that element rather than the movie itself. But the 60s is a good time frame for costume design.

 
Tier 3 - Other Possibilities

If they didn't ignore contemporary designs
A Simple Favor - Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
Crazy Rich Asians
-Mary E Vogt

Previous nominees

Sisters Brothers
- Milena Canonero (9/4)
Alpha -Sharen Davis (2/0)
Welcome to Marwen - Joanna Johnston (2/0)

Never nominated
At Eternity's Gate - Karen Muller Serreau
Vice
-Susan Matheson
Blackkklansman - Marci Rodgers
Bohemian Rhapsody - Julian Day
Colette
- Andrea Flesch
Cold War - Ola Staszko
The Little Stranger
-Steven Noble
Roma -
Anna Terrazas
Suspiria
-Guilia Persanti
Wildlife -Amanda Ford

 

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Tier 1 - Prediction

ROMA
Alfonso Cuaron (never nominated in this category)

NYFCC Winner

Breathtaking imagery - unless they object to him shooting his own film.

A STAR IS BORN
Matthew Libatique
(1 nomination)

Those electric dramatic concert scenes should give him nom #2

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK James Paxton
(1 nomination)

His work on Moonlight was something else. This one's beautiful too.

COLD WAR
Lukasz Zal (1 nomination)

Even more beautiful in black and white than his previous nomination for Ida

 

FIRST MAN

Linus Sandgren
(1 nom | 1 win)

Reteaming with Chazelle (he won for La La Land) on this man goes to the moon bio. It's gorgeous to look at.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

THE FAVOURITE
Robbie Ryan
(never nominated)

BIFA Winner

Amazing DP (see Fish Tank, American Honey, etc) but generally not working in the kind of films Oscar has gone for. We shall see...

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Dion Beebe
(2 noms | 1 win)

Reteaming with Rob Marshall with whom he snagged his other nods (Chicago, Memoirs of a Geisha)

MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
John Mathieson (2 noms)

The visuals are already winning praise.

AT ETERNITY'S GATE
Benoit Delhomme
(never nominated)

He's done beautiful work in the past but a nomination has eluded him. This Van Gogh biopic will almost certainly be pretty to look at.

A QUIET PLACE
Charlotte Bruus Christensen
(never nom'ed)

It was a huge hit, it's visually engaging and surely they don't want Rachel Morrison to maintain that "only female DP ever nominated" title

 
Tier 3- Other Possibilities

Previously nominated
Vice
-Greig Frasier (1/0)
Black Panther -Rachel Morrison (1/0)
Mary Queen of Scots - John Mathieson (2/0)
Nutcracker and Four Realms -Linus Sandgren (1/1)

Waiting on first nomination
Beautiful Boy
- Ruben Impens
Boy Erased
- Eduard Grau
Colette
-Giles Nuttgens
BlacKkKlansmen -Chayse Irvin
Sisters Brothers - Benoit Debie
Suspiria - Sayombhu Mukdeeprom (Spirit nomination)
Wildlife - Diego Garcia  (Spirit nomination)
Welcome to Marwen - C Kim Myles
Madeline's Madeline - Ashley Connor  (Spirit nomination)
Mandy - Benjamin Loeb  (Spirit nomination)
We the Animals - Zak Mulligan  (Spirit nomination)

 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Tier 1 - Prediction

THE FAVOURITE
Fiona Crombie
(never nominated)

BIFA Winner

Oscar loves royalty porn. But then again oscar is moving away from Oscar Bait this past decade.

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
John Myhre
(5 noms | 1 win)

The original film was a box office smash and major Oscar hit. Can the sequel follow suit? 

FIRST MAN

Nathan Crowley 
(4 noms)

The year's Most Likely To film in so many categories. If it's any good of course.

BLACK PANTHER

Hannah Beachler
(never nominated)

At least we hope they'll be saying "Wakanda Forever" in this category

ROMA
Eugenio Caballero
(1 nom | 1 win)

Those breathtaking visuals insure lots of Oscar love.

 

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
Mark Friedberg
(never nominated)

One of the best production designers and they just never honor him. Grrr.

FANTASTIC BEASTS 2

Stuart Craig 
(11 noms | 3 wins)

Oscar voters never tire of this series in this category. Time for a break or just more of the same?

NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS
Guy Hendrix Dyas
(2 nominations) 

If it's a critical and commercial hit, you might see a campaign. 

MORTAL ENGINES
Dan Hennah
(5 noms / 1 win)

They like Hennah's work quite a lot. That said the Peter Jackson era is over with Oscar.

WELCOME TO MARWEN
Stefan Dechant
(never nominated)

Plenty of opportunities to show off the art direction here in this movie about a man who creates a whole miniature world to deal with his own

 
Tier 3 - Other Possibilities

Previously nominated
Mortal Engines
Dan Hennah (5/0)
Vice
- Patrice Vermette (2/0)
A Quiet Place
- Jeffrey Beecroft (1/0)
Ready Player One
- Adam Stockhausen (3/1)
Widows
- Adam Stockhausen (3/1)

Waiting on first nomination...
Aquaman
- Bill Brzeski
Annihilation -Mark Digby
Blackkklansman - Curt Beech
Colette - Michael Carlin
Hereditary - Grace Yun
Mary Queen of Scots
- James Merifield
The Sisters Brothers -Michel Barthelemy
Suspiria - Inbal Weinberg

 

 

FILM EDITING

Tier 1 - Prediction

A STAR IS BORN
Jay Cassidy
(3 nominations)

BLACK KLANSMAN
Barry Alexander Brown (never nominated in this category)

THE FAVOURITE
Sam Sneade
(never nominated)

VICE
Hank Corwin
(1 nomination) 

ROMA
Alfonso Cuaron (2 noms / 1 win in this category) and Adam Gough
(never nominated)

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT
Eddie Hamilton
(never nominated)

MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Wyatt Smith
(never nominated)

FIRST MAN 
Tom Cross
(2 noms | 1 win)

BLACK PANTHER

Debbie Berman & Michael Shawver (never nom'ed)

GREEN BOOK
Patrick J Don Vito
(never nominated)

 
Tier 3 - Other Possibilities

Previously nominated
Beautiful Boy - Stephen Mirrione (3/1)
If Beale Street Could Talk
- Joi MicMillon & Nat Sanders (1 nomination)
Mary Queen of Scots
- Chris Dickens (1/1)
A Quiet Place - Christopher Tellefsen (1/0) Widows - Joe Walker (2/0)
Sisters Brothers - Juliette Welfling (1/0)

Waiting on first nomination
The Frontrunner - Stefan Grube
Mary Poppins Returns
- Wyatt Smith
Suspiria - Walter Fasano
Tully - Stefan Grube
You Were Never Really Here - Joe Bini (Spirit nomination)
Mid 90s- Nick Huoy (Spirit nomination)
We the Animals - Keiko Deguchi & Brian A Kates  (Spirit nomination)

 

 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tier 1 - Prediction

BLACK PANTHER

I'm hesistatn to call it a lock only because competition is so stiff in this category each year but on the other hand, it's a lock. ;) 

FIRST MAN

That moon landing! Will they appreciate visual effects in a supporting role? That'd be nice.

AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR

For epic scale it'll be tough to beat. But though the effects work is > than Black Panther, it won't be as well loved which could hurt it here. 

READY PLAYER ONE

If they want this category to be Animated Film friendly

MISSION IMPOSSIBLE -FALLOUT

If they want practical effects this year.

 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY

Believe it or not Oscar HAS skipped Star Wars films before in this category. But still that franchise is a safer bet than most.

ANT MAN AND THE WASP

If they suddenly get discerning about Marvel films - the movie might not be as strong overall but the vfx are better than those in Black Panther

CHRISTOPHER ROBIN

For bringing those iconic stuffed animals back to life

MORTAL ENGINES

If people like the film?

FANTASTIC BEASTS 2

If they're feeling super generous.

 
Tier 3 - 10 OTHER SEMI-FINALISTS ALREADY ANNOUNCED

 

  • AQUAMAN
  • BUMBLEBEE
  • INCREDIBLES 2
  • ISLE OF DOGS
  • JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM
  • MARY POPPINS RETURNS
  • THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS
  • PADDINGTON 2
  • A QUIET PLACE
  • WELCOME TO MARWEN

 

FILMS WHICH DID NOT MAKE THE SEMI-FINALS:
Annihilation (WTF?), Deadpool 2, Suspiria, Venom , and A Wrinkle in Time.

 

 

 

MAKEUP AND HAIR

This category is notoriously difficult to foresee so consider this stabbing in the dark. Lots of strong contenders this year though.

Tier 1 - Prediction

 

VICE

BORDER AT ETERNITY'S GATE
 
Tier 2 - Or Maybe It'll Be
BLACK PANTHER
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

DESTROYER

THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS

THE FAVOURITE

BIFA Winner

 
Tier 3 - Other possibilities for the bake-offs?

 

Alpha, Aquaman, BlacKkKlansman, Border, Crazy Rich Asians, Deadpool 2, Fantastic Beasts 2, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Mortal Engines, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Suspiria, Vox Lux and A Wrinkle in Time