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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

January 20th Final Predictions

 

COSTUME DESIGN - nothing feels locked up here since none of the assumed leaders are really Oscar regulars...


Tier 1 - Predicted 5

 Florence Foster Jenkins
Consolata Boyle
(1 nomination)


He's Jackie
Madeline Fontaine
(never nominated)

She's best known for her stylish french films (Amelia, Yves Saint Laurent, etcetera) but this recreation of iconic 60s looks should  wow the branch

He's La La Land
Mary Zophres (1 nomination)

 While contemporary films are rarely nominated, might love for this picture convince them to honor its bold color choices and elegant style?

 

The Dressmaker
Marion Boyce & Margot Wilson (never nominated)

The plot revolves around the costumes so in some ways it would be a fun plot twist as a nominee

 

Hidden Figures
Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
(never nominated)

Kalfus has fun with making Henson pop in seas of men's suits and people were falling in love with the movie during voting. It'll show up somewhere surely

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Fantastic Beasts
Colleen Atwood
(11 noms | 3 wins)

If they haven't yet tired of her very very specific aesthetic... but she has a few other fantasy films this year as well, possibly splitting her votes

Silence
Dante Ferretti
(1 nom in this category) 

17th Century Japan and Jesuit missionary garb. Ferretti was nominated last time he did this for Scorsese (Kundun)

Allied
Joanna Johnston
(1 nomination)

If they're in the mood for a truly glamorous throwback it's this or Hail Caesar as options. Both have beautiful tuxes and gowns

Hail Caesar
Mary Zophres (1 nomination)

Her work is just gorgeous Old Hollywood but heightened still. But they've rarely looked at the Coen Bros films in this category despite many worthy options

The Handmaiden
Jo Sang-gyeong
(never nominated)

Foreign Films sometimes get noticed by the Academy's costume branch. Here's a great option.

Tier 3 - Vote Siphoning From...?

Kubo and the Two Strings - Deborah Cook (never nom'ed)
Live By Night
-Jacqueline West (3 noms)
Rules Don't Apply
- Albert Wolsky (7 noms | 2 wins)
Cafe Society
- Suzy Beninger (never nom'ed)
Love & Friendship - Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh
Fences - Sharen Davis (never nom'ed)
The Founder
- Daniel Orlandi (never nom'ed)
Loving
- Erin Benach (never nom'ed)
Legend of Tarzan
- Ruth Myers (2 noms | 0 wins)
The Witch
Linda Muir (never nom'ed)
Miss Peregrine's... Colleen Atwood
Captain Fantastic Courtney Hoffman (never nom'ed)
Doctor Strange -Alexandra Byrne (4 noms | 1 win)
20th Century Women Jennifer Johnson (never nom'ed)
A Bigger Splash Giulia Piersanti (never nom'ed)

 

 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

La La Land
David Wasco
(never nom'ed)

Will they embrace theatricality this year? Why do they keep resisting Wasco's awesome work?

Fantastic Beast and...
Stuart Craig
(10 noms | 3 wins)

They're kind of obsessed with Craig doing JK Rowling but AGAIN?

Jackie
Jean Rabasse
(1 nomination)

They might like its claustrophic takes on the rooms surrounding the grieving First Lady

Nocturnal Animals
Shane Valentino (never nom'ed)

Outdoor toilets, and huge slabs of souless artworld light and that glass cage of a mansion for Amy.

 

The Handmaiden

LAFCA Winner

Mighty impressive but it's always tought to know when foreign films will break through the hometown wall

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Arrival
Patrice Vermette
(1 nom)

Wonderful work but perhaps too minimalist for Oscar's Most = Best habits

Florence Foster Jenkins
Alan MacDonald
(never nom'ed)

fussy & flouncy like Florence

Silence
Dante Ferretti
(10 noms | 3 wins)

17th century Japan. And Ferretti is popular

The Founder
Michael Corenblith
(2 noms)

Lots of opportunities to admire the 50s restaurant recreations

Live By Night
Jess Gonchor
(1 nom)

 His work is regularly amazing and this job is pretty epic in scope with several memorable locales

Tier 3 - Longer Shots

Passengers Guy Hendrix Dyas (1 nom)
Hidden Figures
Wynn Thomas (never nom'ed)
Fences
David Gropman (2 noms)
A Monster Calls
Eugenio Caballero (1 nom | 1 win)
Hail Caesar Jess Gonchor (1 nom)
Love & Friendship Anna Rackard (never nom'ed)
The Witch Craig Lathrop (never nom'ed)
Rules Don't Apply
Jeannine Oppewall (4 noms)
Miss Peregrine's Gavin Bocquet (never nom'ed)
Doctor Strange
Charles Wood (never nom'ed)
The BFG Rick Carter (4 noms | 2 wins)
Loving Chad Keith (never nom'ed)

 

 

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

La La Land
Linus Sandgren
(never nom'ed)

He's done fine work in the past but this should be showier.

ASC nominee

Arrival
Bradford Young
(never nom'ed)

One of our Best DPs. Will Oscar notice him now that he's got a bigger budget film?

ASC nominee

 

Moonlight
James Laxton
(never nominated)

MyOscar can be slow to recognize new talent but this film is remarkably beautiful

ASC nominee

 

Lion
Greig Fraser
(never nom'ed)

Australia and India offer plenty of sun baked eye candy. Fraser is a wonder.

ASC nominee

 

Silence
Rodrigo Prieto
(1 nom)

17th century Japan will give Prieto plenty of beauty to work with - and he's superb in the outdoors

ASC nominee

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Nocturnal Animals
Seamus McGarvey 
(2 noms)

A Single Man was not nominated. But will they go for the second Tom Ford visual feast?

 

Hell or High Water
Giles Nuttgens
(never nom'ed)

With 40 titles under his belt already might he finally get some attention

Hail Caesar
Roger Deakins
(13 noms)

just lush with Old Hollywood beauty and Coen wit

 

Jackie
Stéphane Fontaine (never nominated)

This French DP also lensed Captain Fantastic and Elle this year. An amazing year for him.Critics Choice Nomination

Live By Night

Robert Richardson 
(9 noms | 3 wins)

 Like Deakins he doesn't need the film to be well loved to make it in. They tend to be obsessed with him.

 

Tier 3 - Longer Shots

Hacksaw Ridge Simon Duggan
The Jungle Book
Bill Pope
The Handmaiden
 Chung Chung-hoon
Light Between Oceans
Adam Arkapaw
The Witch
Jarin Blaschke
American Honey Robbie Ryan  Spirit Nomination
Fantastic Beasts Philippe Rousselot
Rules Don't Apply Caleb Deschanel
The BFG
Janusz Kaminski
Manchester by the Sea Jody Lee Pipes
Cafe Society Vittorio Storaro

 

 

FILM EDITING

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

 

La La Land
Tom Cross (1 nom | 1 win)

 

Hacksaw Ridge John Gilbert

 Arrival
Joe Walker (1 nomination)

Moonlight
Joi McMillion & Nat Sanders
(never nom'ed)

Hell or High Water
Jake Roberts (never nom'ed)

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Manchester by the Sea
Jennifer Lame
(never nominated)

Sully
Blu Murray
(never nominated)

The frequent plane crash returns could do it

 OJ Made in America
Bret Granato, Maya Mumma, Ben Sozanski (never nominated)

 

 

 Nocturnal Animals
Joan Sobel

 

Lion
Alexandre de Francheschi
(never nom'ed)

Tier 3 - Longer Shots?

Rogue One Jabez Olssen
Jackie
Sebastian Sepulveda
Silence
Thelma Schoonmaker
Hidden Figures Peter Teschner
Deadpool Julian Clarke
Swiss Army Man Matthew Hannam  Spirit Nomination 

 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

 

My Jungle Book

those photorealistic animals sure wowed people. but dont you think King Louie had some scale problems?

 

 

Doctor Strange

 Inception inspired for some reason but god its insane and admirably ambitious

Arrival

This year's classy option in the category (like Ex Machina last year)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Star Wars films score here - though the CG humans are controversial

Kubo and the Two Strings

only 1 animated film has been nominated (Nightmare Before Christmas) but the fact that this one made the finals may be telling
 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

 

Passengers

People don't love the movie but the effects sure are terrific

 

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

a fantasy world they love but the visual effects nominations have been spotty

 

 

Captain America: Civil War

supersized superhero mayhem

The BFG

The Spielberg film may have to sit this category out

 

Deepwater Horizon

it made the finals which is something!

 

 

Made The Semi-Finals but not the finals in the Bakeoffs
Alice Through Looking Glass, Batman v Superman, Deadpool, Independence Day: Resurgence, Miss Peregrine's, Suicide Squad, Star Trek Beyond, Sully, X-Men Apocalypse , Warcraft

Did not even make the semi-finals:
A Monster Calls
(Critics Choice Nomination), Max Steel, Midnight Special, The Huntsman Winters War, Assassin's Creed, The Witch, The Legend of Tarzan, Gods of Egypt

 

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
More discussion of the finalists, here.   

Tier 1 - Predicted 3

 

Deadpool

Florence Foster Jenkins

Star Trek Beyond

 
Tier 2 -Watch out for these other finalists
 

 

A Man Called Ove

The Dressmaker

Suicide Squad

Hail Caesar

 

Tier "Didn't Make the Finals" for some reason

Jackie (Critics Choice Nom), Hacksaw Ridge (Critics Choice Nom), Doctor Strange (Critics Choice Nom), Fantastic Beasts (Critics Choice Nom), Silence, Miss Peregrine, Allied, Fences, Loving, The BFG, Rogue One, Allied, The Birth of a Nation, Hands of Stone, The Legend of Tarzan, The Huntsman Winter's War, Assassin's Creed, La La Land, Miles Ahead, Rules Don't Apply, The Handmaiden, Hail Caesar, Love & Friendship, Captain Fantastic, The Witch