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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

NOVEMBER 25th PREDICTIONS

COSTUME DESIGN


Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Florence Foster Jenkins
Consolata Boyle
(1 nomination)

The most traditional Oscar bait costume drama/comedy in the mix this year. I think it's in.

Critics Choice Nomination

 

Jackie
Madeline Fontaine
(never nominated)

She's best known for her stylish french films (Amelia, Yves Saint Laurent, etcetera) but this recreation of iconic 60s looks might wow the branch

Critics Choice Nomination

Live By Night
Jacqueline West (2 noms)

Gangster molls, Miami 50s fashions, and oversized suits. Plus evangelicals, policemen, and Klu Klux Klan -a aprawling amount of costumes.

 

Rules Don't Apply
Albert Wolsky
(7 noms | 2 wins)

He's a costuming legend and he gets to do Old Hollywood here

La La Land
Mary Zophres (1 nomination)

While contemporary films are rarely nominated, might love for this picture convince them to honor its bold color choices and elegant style?

Critics Choice Nomination 

 

Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Loving
Erin Benach
(never nom'ed)

If the branch is impressed with its low key loveliness. Benach has been doing very fine work for a few years now

The Founder
Daniel Orlandi 
(never nom'ed)

Fast food isn't exactly a glamourous topic but it is the 1950s so there'll be a lot of period costumes on extras and principles

Fences
Sharen Davis
(2 noms)

A poor family in the 1950s, a well designed film but might be too lowkey for them.

Silence
Dante Ferretti
(1 nom in this category) 

17th Century Japan and Jesuit missionary garb. Ferretti was nominated last time he did this for Scorsese (Kundun)

 

Love & Friendship
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh
(never nom'ed)

Oscar does enjoy this period. Will they remember this delightful film at all?

Critics Choice Nomination

Tier 3 - Longer Shots?

The Handmaiden -Jo Sang-gyeong
Hidden Figures
-Renee Ehrlich Kalfus
The Witch
Linda Muir
Fantastic Beasts Colleen Atwood Critics Choice Nomination
Allied Joanna Johnston
Light Between Oceans Erin Benach
Miss Peregrine's Home Colleen Atwood
Captain Fantastic Courtney Hoffman
Doctor Strange -Alexandra Byrne
20th Century Women Jennifer Johnson
A Bigger Splash Giulia Piersanti
The Birth of a Nation Francine Jamison Tanchuck

Hail Caesar!
Mary Zophres
(1 nomination)

Darling and Suave and Swell  and every Old Hollywood adjective. Plus Tilda's hats! But will voters remember it? With a campaign it could factor in.

The Legend of Tarzan
Ruth Myers
(2 noms)

 

If they don't object to pants on Tarzan (wtf?) there's plentiful costumes from an era they enjoy

 

 

 

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

La La Land
Linus Sandgren
(never nom'ed)

He's done fine work in the past but this should be showier.

Critics Choice Nomination

Arrival
Bradford Young
(never nom'ed)

One of our Best DPs. Will Oscar notice him now that he's got a bigger budget film?

Critics Choice Nomination

Lion
Greig Fraser
(never nom'ed)

Australia and India offer plenty of sun baked eye candy. Fraser is a wonder.

 

Silence
Rodrigo Prieto
(1 nom)

17th century Japan will give Prieto plenty of beauty to work with - and he's superb in the outdoors

 

Live By Night
Robert Richardson
(9 noms | 3 wins)

 Like Deakins he doesn't need the film to be well loved to make it in.

 

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Jackie
Stéphane Fontaine (never nominated)

This French DP also lensed Captain Fantastic and Elle this year. An amazing year for him.

Critics Choice Nomination

Moonlight
James Laxton
(never nominated)

Oscar can be slow to recognize new talent but this film is remarkably beautiful

 Spirit Nomination, Critics Choice Nomination

Hell or High Water
Giles Nuttgens
(never nom'ed)

With 40 titles under his belt already might he finally get some attention

Nocturnal Animals
Seamus McGarvey
(2 noms)

A Single Man was not nominated. But will they go for the second Tom Ford visual feast?

Critics Choice Nomination

Fences
Charlotte Bruus Christensen
(never nominated)

 A rising cinematographer - if they really go wild for the film

 

Tier 3 - Longer Shots

The Witch Jarin Blaschke
American Honey Robbie Ryan  Spirit Nomination
A Monster Calls Oscar Faura
A Bigger Splash
Yorick Le Saux
Fantastic Beasts Rousselot
Manchester by the Sea Jody Lee Lipes
Hidden Figures
Mandy Walker
Birth of a Nation Elliot Davis
Rules Don't Apply Caleb Deschanel
Loving Adam Stone
Allied Don Burgess
The Founder John Schwartzmann
Miss Peregrine Bruno Delbonnel
The BFG
Janusz Kaminski
Billy Lynn's... John Toll
Passengers Rodrigo Prieto

Hail Caesar
Roger Deakins
(13 noms)

just lush with Old Hollywood beauty and Coen wit

Light Between Oceans
Adam Arkapaw
(never nom'ed)

Jawdroppingly gorgeous with romantic gestures baked in.
 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Silence
Dante Ferretti
(10 noms | 3 wins)

17th century Japan. And Ferretti is popular

Passengers
Guy Hendrix Dyas (1 nom)

Which sci-fi drama will have the most showy sets. This one or Arrival

Arrival
Patrice Vermette
(1 nom)

What kind of visual opportunities will this story afford.

Critics Choice Nomination

 

Jackie
Jean Rabasse
(1 nomination)

 They might like its claustrophic takes on the rooms surrounding the grieving First Lady

Critics Choice Nomination

 

 

Florence Foster Jenkins
Alan MacDonald
(never nom'ed)

fussy & flouncy like Florence

 

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

La La Land
David Wasco
(never nom'ed)

 Will they embrace theatricality this year? Why do they keep resisting Wasco's awesome work?

Critics Choice Nomination

Fantastic Beast and...
Stuart Craig
(10 noms | 3 wins)

 They're kind of obsessed with Craig doing JK Rowling

Critics Choice Nomination

Fences
David Gropman
(2 noms)

 50s era poor neighborhood in Pittsburgh

 

The Founder
Michael Corenblith
(2 noms)

Lots of opportunities to shine given the 50s restaurant recreations

 

 

Live By Night
Jess Gonchor
(1 nom)

 His work is regularly amazing and this job is pretty epic in scope with several memorable locales

Critics Choice Nomination

 

 

Tier 3 - Longer Shots

Nocturnal Animals Shane Valentino
Love & Friendship Anna Rackard
Billy Lynn's... Mark Friedberg
The Witch Craig Lathrop
High Rise Mark Tildesley
Hell or High Water Tom Duffield
Captain Fantastic Russell Barnes
Rules Don't Apply
Jeannine Oppewall
Allied Gary Freeman
Assassin's Creed Andy Nicholson
The Legend of Tarzan Stuart Craig
Rogue One Doug Chiang & Neil Lamont
Miss Peregrine's Gavin Bocquet
Doctor Strange
Charles Wood
The BFG Rick Carter
Loving Chad Keith
Hidden Figures Wynn Thomas

A Monster Calls
Eugenio Caballero
(1 nom | 1 win)

He won the Oscar for Pan's Labyrinth

Hail, Caesar!
Jess Gonchor
(1 nom)

Typically strong and lavish work

 

 

FILM EDITING

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

La La Land
Tom Cross (1 nom | 1 win)

Critics Choice Nomination

 Hell or High Water

Jake Roberts (never nom'ed)

 

 Spirit Nomination

Lion
Alexandre de Francheschi
(never nom'ed)

 Moonlight
Joi McMillion & Nat Sanders
(never nom'ed)

 Spirit Nomination, Critics Choice Nomination

Jackie
Sebastián Sepúlveda (never nominated

 Spirit Nomination

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong
Silence
Thelma Schoonmaker
(7 noms | 3 wins)
Passengers
Maryann Brandon
(1 nom)

Fences
Hughes Winborne
(1 nom | 1 win)

If it has enough best picture heat.

Sully
Blu Murray
(never nominated)

The frequent plane crash returns could do it

Critics Choice Nomination

Arrival Joe Walker (1 nomination)

if it's a best picture contender

Critics Choice Nomination


Tier 3 - Longer Shots?


Allied
Jeremiah O'Driscoll
Hacksaw Ridge John Gilbert Critics Choice Nomination
Birth of a Nation Steve Rosenblum
The Founder
Robert Frazen
Bleed for This Zachary Stuart-Pontier
Hail Caesar "Roderick Jaynes"
The Witch Louise Ford
Captain Fantastic Joseph Krings
Hidden Figures Peter Teschner
Manchester by the Sea Jennifer Lame   Spirit Nomination
Nocturnal Animals Joan Sobel
Billy Lynn's... - Tim Squyres
Loving Julie Monroe
Live By Night William Goldenberg
Swiss Army Man Matthew Hannam  Spirit Nomination 

Captain America: Civil War
Jeffrey Ford & Matthew Schmidt
(never nominated)

Action setpieces galore

 

Rogue One
Jabez Olssen
(never nom'ed)

 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Jungle Book
 

those photorealistic animals

 

 Critics Choice Nomination

 

Doctor Strange

 Inception inspired for some reason

 

Critics Choice Nomination 

Arrival

scifi

Critics Choice Nomination

Passengers

Sci-fi with two popular stars (Pratt & Laurence)

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Star Wars films score here

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Captain America: Civil War

 

supersized superhero mayhem

 

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

a fantasy world they love but the visual effects nominations ahve been spotty

Critics Choice Nomination

Star Trek Beyond

perhaps

Kubo and the Two Strings

animated films have never been nominated but eventually something will be

Warcraft

people don't love the movie but will they admire its massive effects?

 

 

Tier 3 - Other Titles in the bakeoff

Alice Through Looking Glass, The BFG, Batman v Superman, Deadpool, Deepwater Horizon, Independence Day: Resurgence, Miss Peregrine's, Suicide Squad, Sully, X-Men Apocalypse 

DID NOT MAKE THE SEMI-FINALS: A Monster Calls (Critics Choice Nomination), Max Steel, Midnight Special, The Huntsman Winters War, Assassin's Creed, The Witch, The Legend of Tarzan, Gods of Egypt
 

 

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Tier 1 - Predicted 3

   
Florence Foster Jenkins

Star Trek Beyond

Critics Choice Nomination

Silence
 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Jackie

Critics Choice Nomination

Deadpool Miss Peregrine

Doctor Strange

Critics Choice Nomination

Live By Night

 

Tier 3 - Which will make the finals in the bakeoffs?

Hacksaw Ridge (Critics Choice Nomination), Miss Peregrine, Allied, Fences, Loving, Fantastic Beasts (Critics Choice Nomination), The BFG, Rogue One, Allied, The Birth of a Nation, Hands of Stone, The Legend of Tarzan, The Huntsman Winter's War, Assassin's Creed, La La Land, Miles Ahead, Rules Don't Apply, Suicide Squad, The Handmaiden, Hail Caesar, Love & Friendship, Captain Fantastic, The Witch