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89th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2016 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

MID JULY PREDICTIONS

COSTUME DESIGN


Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Florence Foster Jenkins
Consolata Boyle (1 nom)

One of the only traditional Oscar bait costume dramas (comedies) in the mix this year

 

Allied
Designer Unknown

World War II marital espionage drama. Cotillard and Pitt look great in costumes

Silence
Designer Unknown

If it's Powell, who Scorsese uses alot, it could be a shoo in. 17th Century Japan and Jesuit missionary garb

Fantastic Beasts and...
Colleen Atwood (11 noms | 3 wins)

Atwood adds another fantasty franchise to her resume. Only the first Potter film was nominated in this category, though

 

The Legend of Tarzan
Ruth Myers (2 noms)

If they don't object to pants on Tarzan (wtf?) there's plentiful costumes from an era they enjoy

 

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

How to Talk to Girls at Parties
Sandy Powell (12 noms | 3 wins)

Powell in the glam rock era again. Hello Velvet Goldmine! But release plans are awfully quiet

Rules Don't Apply
Albert Wolsky
(7 noms | 2 wins)

He's a costuming legend and he gets to do Old Hollywood here

The Birth of a Nation
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
(never nom'ed)

Civil war era dramas are nominated in this category (12 Years, Lincoln Beloved  & Amistad) except when they're not (Django, Cold Mountain)

The Founder
Daniel Orlandi 
(never nom'ed)

Fast food isn't exactly a glamourous topic but it is the 1950s so there'll be a lot of period costumes on extras and principles alike.

Miss Peregrine's Home...
Colleen Atwood (11 noms | 3 wins

Tim Burton's filmography is no stranger to Costume Design nominations.

 

 

Other Titles...

Doctor Strange -Alexandra Byrne (4 noms | 1 win), Loving - Erin Benach (never nom'ed), Batman v Superman - Michael Wilkinson (), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Colleen Atwood), Fences - Sharen Davis (2 nominations),  Suicide Squad - Kate Hawley (never nom'ed), La La Land (Mary Zophres - 1 nom), Passengers (Jany Temime - never nom'ed), Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Joseph G Aulisi - never nom'ed), Lion (Cappi Ireland - never nom'ed), The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland & Ann Roth), 20th Century Women (Jennifer Johnson), Assassin's Creed (Sammy Sheldon),The Huntsman: Winter's War (Colleen Atwood - 11 noms, 3 wins), A United Kingdom (Anushia Nieradzik), Rogue One (David Crossman & Glyn Dillon), The Lost City of Z (Sonia Grande)

 

Tier 3 - The Conscientous Voter
The following films, of interest in costume design though these are not endorsements per se, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

Hail, Caesar!
Mary Zophres
(1 nomination)

Darling and Suave and Swell  and every Old Hollywood adjective. Plus Tilda's hats! But will voters remember it?

Love & Friendship
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomh-niagh
(never nom'ed)

If it gets a second wind later in the year - Oscar loves Brit costume dramas of this era

 

Captain Fantastic
Courtney Hoffman (never nom'ed)

Wonderful ly constructive imaginative 'out of time' eclectism for this survivalist family

 

A Bigger Splash
Giulia Piersanti
(never nom'ed)

The last sumptuous Tilda/Luca collaboration was nominated in this category (I Am Love)

The Witch
Linda Muir
(never nom'ed)

Puritan plainness. But not without detail or the occassional pop of color (red)

 

 

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Silence
Rodrigo Prieto
(1 nom)

17th century Japan will give Prieto plenty of beauty to work with - and he's superb in the outdoors (see; Brokeback Mountain)

Arrival
Bradford Young
(never nom'ed)

One of our Best DPs. Will Oscar notice him now that he's got a bigger budget film?

Lion
Greig Fraser
(never nom'ed)

Australia and India should offer plenty of sun baked eye candy. Fraser is a wonder.

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
John Toll
(3 noms | 2 wins)

Toll was once an Oscar darling. Can he recapture it with a high frame rate?

La La Land
Linus Sandgren
(never nom'ed)

He's done fine work in the past but this should be showier.

 

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Passengers
Rodrigo Prieto
(1 nom)

Another opportunity for Prieto. Oscar likes visual fx films in this category nowadays

The Birth of a Nation
Elliot Davis
(never nom'ed)

If it's a powerhouse any nomination could happen

Fantastic Beasts and...
Phillipe Rousselot
(3 noms | 1 win)

Once an Oscar darling. If they want to spend more time in this world...

Nocturnal Animals
Seamus McGarvey
(2 noms)

A Single Man WASN'T nominated. But will they go for the second presumed Tom Ford directed beauty

Hail, Caesar!
Roger Deakins
(13 noms)

He still hasn't won; its a crime. Everyone knows it.

 

 

Tier 3 - Or Maybe...

Beat-Up Little Seagull (Bradford Young), Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel - 5 nominations), Fences (Charlotte Bruus Christensen), The Girl on the Train (Charlotte Bruus Christensen), Loving (Adam Stone), Sully (Tom Stern - 1 nom), Allied (Don Burgess), The Founder (John Schwartzmann - 1 nom), Assassin's Creed (Adam Arkapaw), A United Kingdom (Sam Murdy), Wild Oats (Jose Luise Alcaine), Rogue One (Greig Fraser), Miss Peregrine (Bruno Delbonnel - 4 noms), The Lost City of Z (Darius Khonjdi, 1 nom), The BFG (Janusz kaminski 6 noms/2 wins)

 

Tier Extra - The Conscientous Voter
The following films, of interest in cinematography though these are not endorsements, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

Swiss Army Man
Larkin Seiple
(never nom'ed)

A strange strange picture but it works visually

A Bigger Splash
Yorick Le Saux
(never nom'ed)

Sumptuous and sensual - everyone looks amazing and sun kissed

Jungle Book
Bill Pope
(never nom'ed)

Good reviews. They admire a tech challenge

Captain Fantastic Stéphane Fontaine
(never nom'ed)

The Witch
Jarin Blaschke
(never nom'ed)

Eerie and just right.

 

 

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Silence
Dante Ferretti
(10 noms | 3 wins)

17th century Japan. And Ferretti is popular

Passengers
Guy Hendrix Dyas (1 nom)

Which sci-fi drama will have the most showy sets. This one or Story of Your Life?

Birth of a Nation
Geoffrey Kirkland
(1 nom)

Seems likely if the film is popular

Fantastic Beast and...
Stuart Craig (10 noms | 3 wins)

They're kinda obsessed with Craig doing JK Rowling

 

Fences
David Gropman
(2 noms)

50s era poor neighborhood in Pittsburgh

 

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Arrival
Patrice Vermette
(1 nom)

What kind of visual opportunities will this story afford.

The Founder
Michael Corenblith
(2 noms)

Lots of opportunities to shine given the 50s restaurant recreations

La La Land
David Wasco
(never nom'ed)

Will they embrace theatricality this year?

 

Loving
Chad Keith
(never nom'ed)

Will they be impressed with the period recreation?

 

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Mark Friedberg
(never nom'ed)

Why do they keep resisting Friedberg's often awesome work?

 

 

Tier 3 - But Watch Out For...

Snowden (Mark Tildesley), Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall - 4 noms), Sully (James J Murakami, 1 nom), Allied (Gary Freeman), The Girl on the Train (Kevin Thompson), Assassin's Creed (Andy Nicholson - 1 nom), Captain Fantastic (Russell Barnes), The Legend of Tarzan (Stuart Craig -10 noms, 3 wins), A United Kingdom (Simon Bowles), Rogue One (Doug Chiang & Neil Lamont), Miss Peregrine's (Gavin Bocquet), Doctor Strange (Charles Wood), Alice Through Looking Glass (Dan Hennah 5 noms, 1 win), The BFG (Rick Carter, 4 noms, 2 wins)

 

Tier Extra - The Conscientous Voter
The following films, of interest in production design those these are not endorsements, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

Everybody Wants Some !!
Bruce Curtis
(never nom'ed)

sitcom steady and clever

Hail, Caesar!
Jess Gonchor
(1 nom)

Typically strong and lavish work

High Rise
Mark Tildesley
(never nom'ed)

The setting AS character

Captain Fantastic
Russell Barnes
(never nom'ed)

Amazing work in the forest

The Witch
Craig Lathrop
(never nom'ed)

Eerie and well crafted

 

 

FILM EDITING

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

The Birth of a Nation
Steven Rosenblum (3 noms)
La La Land
Tom Cross (1 nom | 1 win)
Arrival
Joe Walker (1 nom)
Passengers
Maryann Brandon
(1 nom)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
Tim Squyres (2 noms)
 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong
Silence
Thelma Schoonmaker
(7 noms | 3 wins)
The Girl on the Train Michael McCusker
(1 nom)
Rogue One
Jabez Olssen
(never nom'ed)
Lion
Alexandre de Francheschi
(never nom'ed)
Sully
Blu Murray
(never nom'ed)

 

Tier 3 - But Watch Out For...

Loving (Julie Monroe), Allied (Jeremiah O'Driscoll), The Founder (Robert Frazen), Snowden (Alex Marquez & Lee Percy)

We don't know who is editing yet

Fences, Assassin's Creed, A United Kingdom

 

Tier Extra - The Conscientous Voter. What's Already Out There?
The following films, of interest in editing those these are not endorsements per se, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

Captain Fantastic
Joseph Krings
(never nom'ed)

Beautifully crafted

 

Captain America: Civil War
Jeffrey Ford & Matthew Schmidt
(never nominated)

Action setpieces galore

Hail, Caesar!
Roderick Haynes

The Coen Bros are always on point

The Shallows
Joel Negron (never nom'ed)

Riveting despite the one character gimmick

 

The Witch
Louise Ford
(never nom'ed)

Timing is everything in horror

 

 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Tier 1 - Predicted 5

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Star Wars films score here

Jungle Book

those photorealistic animals

 

Passengers

Sci-fi with two popular stars (Pratt & Laurence)

Captain America: Civil War

supersized superhero mayhem

 

Doctor Strange

Inception inspired for some reason

 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong

Star Trek Beyond

perhaps

 

Arrival

scifi

Fantastic Beasts and...

fantasy world they love... though not really in this category

Suicide Squad

if they go more superhero than usual

The Legend of Tarzan

animals again

 

 

Tier 3 - Which other films might survive the initial bake off?

Deadpool, A Monster Calls, Max Steel, Batman v Superman, Deadpool, Midnight Special, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children, Deepwater Horizon, The Huntsman Winters War, Assassin's Creed, The BFG

 

Tier Extra - The Conscientous Voter. What's already out there?
The following films, of interest in costume design those these are not endorsements, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

Batman v Superman The BFG Ghostbusters Warcraft The Witch
 

 

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Tier 1 - Predicted 3

   
  Florence Foster Jenkins Suicide Squad Silence  
 
Tier 2 - Also Could Be Strong
Star Trek Beyond Deadpool How to Talk to Girls at Parties Doctor Strange Miss Peregrine's Home...

 

Tier 3 - Other Films

Fences, Loving, Fantastic Beasts, The BFG, Rogue One, Allied, The Birth of a Nation, Hands of Stone, The Legend of Tarzan, The Huntsman Winter's War, Assassin's Creed, La La Land, Miles Ahead, Rules Don't Apply

 

Tier 3 - The Conscientous Voter. What's already out there
The following films, of interest in makeup and hairstyling though these are not endorsements per se, have already been released. The conscientous voter will "Consider" early and throughout the year.

Sing Street Hail Caesar! Love & Friendship Captain Fantastic The Witch