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SMACKDOWN 1954

 "I love that two people independent of one another gave Claire Trevor an extra star simply for being Claire Trevor." - Glenn

"Interesting to see the take of young people on these movies." - Les

"That was fascinating. I love the thoughts on Executive Suite, post-post-WWII and the "benevolent patriarch." " - B.D.

 

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88th Oscars. Oscar Contenders of 2015 - For prediction, discussion, entertainment purposes only

 discuss on the blog

CHARTS UPDATED ON JULY 4th

 

 

Best Costume Design Predictions
The Danish Girl
Paco Delgado
(1 nomination)
Cinderella
Sandy Powell
(10 noms | 3 wins)
Carol
Sandy Powell
(10 noms | 3 wins) 
Brooklyn
Odile Dicks-Mireau
(never nominated)
MacBeth
Jacqueline Durran
(4 noms | 1 win)
This great designer will follow up his Les Miz designs by making Redmayne even prettier   Powell's costume design is always noteworthy and she's practically directing this thing her colors are so bold Powell's other big effort this year. Hey she's pulled off a double before (see 1998) and should have one other time (2002)   The dresses are gorgeous and really help to sell Saoirse Ronan's character arc from timid immigrant to new American woman With its vivid movie stars and what looks to be a potent visual approach, Durran will have opportunities to shine again
Tier 2 - But maybe it will be these
Far From the Madding Crowd
Janet Patterson
(4 nominations)
Suffragette
Jane Petrie
(never nominated)
Pan
Jacqueline Durran
(4 noms | 1 win)
Tulip Fever
Michael O'Connor
(3 noms | 1 win)
Joy
Michael Wilkinson
(1 nomination)
Typically strong work from Patterson and it can only help that the film was a surprise hit.  Jane Petrie isn't a costume designer most have heard of but that's about to change. She has not one but three high profile films this year (see also: Genius and Icon)  We may not have needed a prequel to Peter Pan (death to prequels!) but Joe Wright makes pretty movies and this will undoubtedly be flashy 17th Century Amsterdam will give this great designer plenty of chances to show off Wilkinson has been giving most of his time to the Man of Steel so it'll be a treat to see what he does with his second Jennifer Lawrence period piece 
Tier 3 - Could They Contend?
Crimson Peak
Kate Hawley
(never nominated)
Trumbo
Daniel Orlandi
(never nominated)
The Hateful Eight
Courtney Hoffman
(never nominated)
In the Heart of the Sea
Julian Day
(never nominated)
Mad Max Fury Road
Jenny Beavan
(9 noms | 1 win)
Will Oscar feel Goth enough for this starry haunted del Toro movie? We shall see.   It's about damn time he got a nomination. Maybe doing the Blacklist era and Helen Mirren as Hedda Hopper could finally do it? Despite Tarantino's gift with iconography and his smart choice of designers, his films are never nominated in this category -- could this furry Western break that spell? If it's an Oscar hit this is possible though they ignored Day's fun colorful work on Rush Even better than the costume themselves is the realization than Jenny f'in Beaven made them - talk about range! And inspiration
Anything Could Happen

Previous Nominees:The Revenant - Jacqueline West (2 nominations) |Avengers: Age of Ultron - Alexandra Byrne (4 noms | 1 win) | The Martian - Janty Yates (1 win) | Tomorrowland - Jeffrey Kurland (1 nomination)

Never Nominated: In the Heart of the Sea - Julian Day | Mr Holmes - Keith Madden | Victor Frankenstein - Jany Temime | Freeheld - Stacey Battat | A Little Chaos - Joan Bergin | Bridge of Spies - Kasia Walicka-Maimone | I Saw the Light - Lahly Poore | Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Michael Kaplan | The Walk - Suttirat Anne Larlarb | Jane Got a Gun - Catherine George | Fantastic Four - George L Little | Black Mass - Kasia Walicka Maimone | Ex Machina - Sammy Sheldon | The Program -Jane Petrie |Self/Less - Shay Cunliffe

2015 or 2016 - waiting on release dates
Untitled Howard Hughes Project - Albert Wolsky | Silence - | The Dressmaker - Marion Boyce & Margot Wilson | Genius - Jane Petrie | Tale of Tales -Massimo Cantini Parrini

Costume Designers Unknown at this Writing (they don't go on the chart until we know who)
A Bigger Splash

 

 

Best Cinematography Predictions
The Revenant
Emmanuel Lubeszki
(7 noms | 2 wins)
Hateful Eight
Robert Richardson
(8 noms | 3 wins)
Carol
Edward Lachman
(1 nomination)
I Saw the Light
Dante Spinotti
(2 nominations)
Sicario
Roger Deakins
(12 nominations)
Lubeszki, always up for a challenge (see Gravity, Children of Men, Birdman, etcetera) will be using all natural light for this violent frontier drama  Oscar is kind of obsessed with Richardson so even if Hateful Eight doesn't quite hit (who knows) he could still be in play  Can the Far From Heaven team do it again? Lachman sure can paint a beautiful picture   Just a hunch that Spinotti, who hasn't been doing anything buzzy of late, will return to old Oscar baiting form for this music bio    Deakins can get nominated even when his film can't so...
Other Major Possibilities
In the Heart of the Sea
Anthony Dod Mantle 
(1 nom | 1 win) 
Bridge of Spies
Janusz Kaminski
(6 noms | 2 wins)
Mad Max Fury Road
John Seale
(4 noms | 1 win)
Suffragette
Eduard Grau
(never nominated)
Macbeth
Adam Arkapaw
(never nominated)
Can Mantle grab their attention again? He's been given a big possibly expressive watery canvas here  Oscar loves the ongoing Spiellberg/Kaminski collaboration. The trailer doesn't suggest a visual wow and he isn't nominated every time ... but they'll always consider him.   This could well be too outre for voters but damn if it isn't Oscar worthy. Seale didn't have great luck in the desert w/ Prince of Persia but he did WIN his Oscar shooting similarly scorched earth (English Patient) Grau made a lovely splash with A Single Man. If he keeps up that kind of hypnotic image-making Oscar will surely come around to him  Early reaction often centers around its visual boldness. Might his home branch respond to this fairly new talented DP? (He previously shot Lore & Animal Kingdom)
Anything Could Happen

Previous Nominees
The Danish Girl - Danny Cohen (1 nomination), The Program - Danny Cohen (1 nomination), Tomorrowland - Claudio Miranda (2 noms | 1 win), Jurassic World- John Schwartzman (1 nomination), Pan - John Mathieson (2 nominations) and Seamus McGarvey (2 nominations), Southpaw - Mauro Fiore (1 nom | 1 win)

Never Nominated but could they see their first?
Youth - Luca Bigazzi, Creed - Maryse Alberti, Everest - Salvatore Totino, Sea of Trees - Kasper Tuxen, Joy - Linus Sandgren, Brooklyn - Yves Belanger, Spectre - Hoyte Van Hoytema, The Walk - Dariusz Wolski, The Martian - Dariusz Wolski, A Bigger Splash - Yorick Le Saux, Concussion - Salvatore Totino, Freeheld - Maryse Alberti, Star Wars The Force Awakens - Daniel Mindel , Self/Less - Brendan Galvin | Steve Jobs - Alwin Kuchler, Ex Machina -Rob Hardy, Black Mass - Masanobu Takayanagi, The 33 - Checco Varese, Crimson Peak - Dan Laustsen, Mr Holmes -Tobias Schleisser, Ricki and the Flash - Declan Quinn,

2015 or 2016 - Waiting on Dates
Untitled Warren Beatty Howard Hughes - Caleb Deschanel (5 nominations), Genius - Ben Davis

 

 

Best Production Design Predictions
Cinderella
Dante Ferretti
(10 noms | 3 wins)
The Danish Girl
Eve Stewart (3 nominations)
Carol
Judy Becker
(1 nomination)
Crimson Peak
Thomas E Sanders
(2 nominations)
Pan
Aline Bonetto
(2 nominations)
Ferretti is an Oscar favorite and he did great work with this fairy tale  Ample opportunities for the sets here. We shall see.    Becker is undervalued so we're hoping she really shines again. Let's pretend they get really adventurous for once and don't only nominate Best Pictures   "Most" Production Design? It might well have it. 
Other Major Possibilities
Suffragette
Alice Norrington
(never nominated)
The Revenant
Jack Fisk
(1 nomination)
Mr Holmes
Martin Childs
(2 noms | 1 win)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Rick Carter (4 noms | 2 wins) and Darren Gilford (never nominated)
The Martian
Arthur Max
(2 nominations) 
If it has major Best Picture heat tech nominations could be abundant  Fisk is one of the best Production Designers despite a bizarrely weak Oscar tally. Will this old Sherlock Holmes movie be beloved by voters?  A Star Wars epic hasn't been nominated in this category since Return of the Jedi. But if this one isnt disappointing like the recent trilogy, watch out If Oscar is in the mood for more survival in space movies on the heels of Interstellar and Gravity
Anything Could Happen

Previous Nominees
Joy - Judy Becker (1 nomination), Star Wars: The Force Awakens - Rick Carter (4 noms | 2 wins) & Darren Gilford (never nominated), A Bigger Splash - Maria Djurkovic (1 nom), Bridge of Spies - Adam Stockhausen (2 noms | 1 win), Spectre -Dennis Gassner (5 noms | 1 win), Steve Jobs -Guy Hendrix Dyas (1 nomination), Victor Frankenstein -Eve Stewart (3 nominations), Sicario - Patrice Vermette (1 nomination), Untitled Howard Hughes - Jeannine Oppenwall (4 noms)

Never Nominated
Far From Madding Crowd - Kave Quinn, Tomorrowland - Scott Chambliss, Hateful Eight - Yohei Taneda, Suffragette - Alice Norrington, MacBeth - Fiona Crombie, In the Heart of the Sea -Mark Tildesley, Trumbo - Mark Ricker, Ex Machina - Mark Digby, Genius - Mark Digby, Jurassic World - Ed Verreaux, Black Mass - Stefania Cella, Brooklyn - Francois Seguin, Freeheld - Jane Musky, Mad max: Fury Road - Colin Gibson, The Sea of Trees - Alex DiGerlando

Unknown
I Saw the Light, The Walk

 

Best Film Editing Predictions
The Revenant
Stephen Mirrione
(2 noms | 1 win)
Sicario
Joe Walker
(1 nomination)
In the Heart of the Sea
Daniel P Hanley & Mike Hill (4 noms | 1 win)
Steve Jobs
Elliott Graham
(1 nom)
Bridge of Spies
Michael Kahn
(8 noms | 3 wins)
 Frontier vengeance should have ample drama and action to show off its editing If Vileneuve is right that its his best and most accessible, major nominations could be happening Hanley & Hill, Howards' go-to editors, will be there if the film is... maybe even if its not since action can help here If it has best picture heat Kahn is a favorite and if its a Best Picture nominee, expect it here. 
Other Major Possibilities
Suffragette
Barney Pilling
(1 nomination)
The Walk
Jeremiah Driscoll
(never nominated)
Brooklyn
Jake Roberts
(never nominated)
MacBeth
Chris Dickens (1 nom | 1 win)
Mad Max Fury Road
Jason Ballantine & Margaret Sixel
(never nominated)
 If it has Best Picture heat Will this film be a mere curiosity or a hit? Too early to say. If it has people en masse catching their breath, tech nominations plausible  If it has Best Picture heat  If it really grabs audiences and critics Perhaps it's wishful thinking but will the tech branches really ignore this after so many critical hosanna
Anything Could Happen

Previous Nominees
I Saw the Light - Alan Heim (2 noms | 1 win) | Concussion - William Goldenberg (5 noms | 1 win), Joy - Jay Cassidy (3 noms), Trumbo -Alan Baumgarten (1 nom), Southpaw - John Refoua (1 nom), Sea of Trees (4 noms | 2 wins) , Spectre - Lee Smith (2 noms), Genius - Chris Dickens (1 nom | 1 win), The Martian - Pietro Scalia (4 noms | 2 wins), Black Mass - David Rosenblum (1 nomination), Cinderella - Martin Walsh (1 nom | 1 win), Freeheld - Andrew Mondsheim (1 nom),

Never Nominated
Carol - Affona Gonçalves, Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens- Maryann Brandon & Mary Jo Markey, Creed - Claudia Castello & Michael P Shaver, Hateful Eight - Fred Raskin, Everest - Mick Audsley, Ricki & The Flash - Wyatt Smith, Pan - William Hoy & Paul Tothil, The Program- Valerio Bonelli, Jurassic World - Kevin Stitt, The 33 - Michael Tronick, A Bigger Splash - Walter Fasano, Crimson Peak - Bernat Vilaplana, Ex Machina - Mark Day

Editors Unknown At This Writing (often the last player announced. They don't go on the chart until we know who) 
Mr Holmes, The Danish Girl,


Best Visual Effects Predictions
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Avengers: Age of Ultron
The Martian
Jurassic World
Pan
 Of the six Star Wars film only the most recent, Revenge of the Sith, was not honored here Looks set to repeat its predecessor   Cinema Con reaction was fairly strong The dinosaurs are back - and it's a big enough hit that they probably won't ignore it... even if it's not as impressive looking as its 22 year old predecessor  Best sometimes equal Most and this will be showy
Other Major Possibilities
Furious 7 Mad Max Fury Road Ex Machina Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation Tomorrowland
 Given that it's a phenomenon - will they be like "sure"? Or are there too many practical effects with cars?  Can Oscar handle this much adrenaline? Or are there too many practical effects with cars? This would be a shoo-in if Oscar regularly went for subtle but superbly executed effects.  Can it live up to Ghost Protocol's visual impressiveness?  Brad Bird's films always look great. It wasn't too warmly received but the visual effects impress. Will they remember them?
Anything Could Happen

Other Possibilities
Terminator Genisys, Jupiter Ascending, In the Heart of the Sea, Ant-Man, Crimson Peak, Everest, Chappie, Self/Less, Spectre, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Longshots:
Cinderella, The Walk, Midnight Special, Victor Frankenstein, Tale of Tales, Kingsman: The Secret Service, The Divergent Series: Insurgent, Spy, The Man From UNCLE, Fantastic Four, Self/Less

 

Best MakeUp and Hair Predictions
   
Black Mass
The Danish Girl
Pan
   Johnny Depp balding... and human again Eddie Redmayne as a trans woman   Hugh and Rooney as living cartoons  
Other Major Possibilities
Cinderella
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Mad Max Fury Road
Jupiter Ascending
The Revenant
 If they want to honor all that hair on all those superbly costumed ladies  Could be an uphill struggle. The franchise has only won 1 nomination in this category  It's certainly memorable. But too weird for Oscar? we shall see Well this category loves werewolves and Chan's dog boy kind of applies.   There will be lots of rugged sweaty men, probably with wounds and probably with beards
Anything Could Happen

Other Possibilities: Ex Machina, Brooklyn, MacBeth, Trumbo, Victor Frankenstein, Crimson Peak, Tale of Tales, In the Heart of the Sea, The Walk, Steve Jobs, Freeheld, Carol, Suffragette, Joy, I Saw the Light, Untitled Howard Hughes Projects, The Hateful Eight, Trumbo, Ricki & The Flash, Self/Less, Southpaw, Spectre, Miles Ahead, Nina, Mr Holmes, The 33, A Little Chaos,