We'll talk more this weekend but I want to get this posted. I'll be applauding loudly when The Artist wins. Everyone always complains that Oscar doesn't appreciate comedies and then when they do, everyone always screams "trifle!" with holier than thou disgust; the Academy can't win! But this (presumed) winner is a beauty. All twinkly-eyed, big hearted and (mostly) light on its feet. The only real question seems to be how many Oscars will it win. I'm guessing seven... though three of those guesses are easy to see flopping (Actor, Costumes, Cinematography). I don't see it any scenario where it wins Art Direction, Supporting Actress or Screenplay so I'm guessing seven is the maximum. Since you can make such a viable argument for literally any of the five nominees to win Costume Design, I'm guessing the showiness / baitiness of all of them will tip things ever so slightly into the Artist column, which is also I think what's going in Cinematography. I just can't quite believe that "El Chivo" will finally win the gold he's deserved for so long (the latest chance being with The Tree of Life). I've highlighted the true nailbiter categories in red; if you get them right you win the Office Pool.
Best Picture
Will Win: The Artist
Spoiler: The Descendants and The Help are the only films with spoiler heat but even if you try and talk yourself into them, you think you're lying right?
Should Win: Haters gon' hate but The Artist is a beautiful funny rare gift.
Best Director
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Spoiler: Martin Scorsese started precursor season strong with Hugo but the movie has been cooling so I have to wonder if it isn't Alexander Payne in second position for The Descendants
Should Win: I'll clap loudly for Hazanavicius but if they decide not to give the Artist everything, a surprise career win for Terrence Malick would be delicious
all categories after the jump...
Best Actress
Will Win: Viola ... but it's probably a squeaker and a tie would be wondrous.
Spoiler: The Streep
Should Win: Viola
Best Actor
Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Spoiler: George Clooney... and I worry that he actually will win since this year's presumed winner list in major categories is way too deserving almost across the board. That never happens. And though I think Clooney was superb in his last two Oscar nominated performances, I can't buy this particular performance. It has some nice beats here and there but it's the least authentic feeling of the five nominated star turns.
Should Win: Brad Pitt
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Spoiler: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids (more on this performance)
Should Win: It's dangerous to give an actor and Oscar too early in their career but I admit that I'd probably vote for Jessica Chastain here, given the year she had and how much I also like her work as Celia Foote in The Help. But none of my three favorites were nominated in this category.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Spoiler: Some people have floated the notion that Max von Sydow could surprise but I just don't feel there's enough love for the film out there. It's nominations felt extremely exact-timing based. Release the movie a week earlier or push the nominations a week later or whatnot and it vanishes, right?
Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Midnight in Paris was well loved and widely seen, and that's often a winning combination.
Spoiler: A Separation's fandom has been growing but Woody Allen will be tough to beat in the category that loves him most.
Should Win: A Separation
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Though I don't understand all the praise for The Descendants writing, I'm fully aware that I'm in the minority about its value and about the film in general which is, my least favorite Best Picture nominee.
Spoiler: Moneyball has star screenwriters and if the movie can win anywhere, isn't it here?
Should Win: Moneyball
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: A Separation
Spoiler: As Robert was just discussing, foreign film frontrunners often fail to win and if the Academy isn't truly crazy about A Separation, Poland's In Darkness fits right into the subgenre they love (World War II Holocaust related)
Should Win: A Separation
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Pina
Spoiler: Hell and Back Again
Should Win: I have to abstain here as I haven't seen all the films.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Rango
Spoiler: Chico and Rita
Should Win: I should abstain as I haven't had the time to watch Chico and Rita which I know that Jose is rooting for but I personally love Rango.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Most people think The Tree of Life's gorgeousity is a surefire win here, but I'm not so sure. Emmanuel Lubezki is a genius and his films often deserve to win but he never does. I'm guessing the black and white nostalgic beauty of The Artist surprises.
Spoiler: It's worth noting that The Tree of Life is Emmanuel Lubeszki's first cinematography nomination connected to a Best Picture nominee, so perhaps I shouldn't worry that he's going to lose again.
Should Win: The Tree of Life
Best Art Direction
Will Win: Hugo seems to have it locked up given that it's Most Art Direction and Hugo is the most nominated film. It has to win somewhere, right?
Spoiler: But if they want to finally give the Harry Potter series a win, this is the best category for it.
Should Win: If you're one of those people who is okay with career wins, shouldn't Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 win this for the whole series? The Art Direction is definitely the most worthy element of that scene franchise for trophies.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: Best Picture usually takes this so The Artist it is.
Spoiler: Unless The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo surprises to give Kirk Baxter & Angus Wall a second consecutive statue.
Should Win: Moneyball's editing is the clear champ here if you ask me. That movie flows beautifully.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Such a tough category to predict. W.E. and Anonymous are underseen but they both feature royalty porn which Oscar voters go wild for. Will they split each other's vote? Sandy Powell doesn't really care about winning these but Hugo is showy and a film with supporters everywhere (but for maybe the actor's branch). Jane Eyre is deserving but the film was the earliest of the candidates reach. Can love for The Artist make this an easy win given that so many of the film's seem viable? Or is it a five way race? Given the votes going every which way let's guess that The Artist just barely perseveres.
Spoiler: W.E.
Should Win: Jane Eyre
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Spoiler: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Makeup
Will Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Spoiler: Albert Nobbs
Should Win: The Iron Lady... In reality any of these films could win but the reason I am doubting The Iron Lady as a frontrunner is that the Oscar voters en masse tend to like to view tremendous biopic transformations as solely the job of the actor in question. I'm still pissed that the great makeup team on Monster (2003) was snubbed.
Best Original Score
Will Win: The Artist... though I do wonder if John Williams might surprise for either of his films since he hasn't been working regularly.
Spoiler: War Horse
Should Win: The Artist regardless of the whole Vertigo brouhaha. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy would also be a worthy winner.
Best Original Song
Will Win: "Man or Muppet"
Spoiler: "Real in Rio"
Should Win: "Man or Muppet"... though really what's even the point of the category with those voting systems that make the state of songwriting for the movies look even more pauper-like than it actually is.
Best Sound Mixing
Will Win: I'm predicting Hugo for both sound categories but honestly I have no idea what the general voting body of the Academy will go for. Maybe they'll even finally give it to a Transformers movie if the Best Picture type films divvy up all the non action-oriented support?
Spoiler: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Should Win: Moneyball
Best Sound Editing
Will Win: Hugo
Spoiler: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Should Win: Drive
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: Saving Face
Spoiler:
Should Win:
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Raju
Spoiler: Tuba Atlantic
Should Win: I have to abstain but Amir thinks it should go to Tuba Atlantic.
Best Animated Short
Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore (which I quite liked)
Spoiler: Wild Life
Should Win: I have to abstain but Amir thinks it should go to Wild Life.