Coco here, ready to talk about the current Oscar race and the surprises that might pop up.
Last week, we discussed SAG's bizarre taste. The math works against it but we're desperately hoping the Academy breaks free of their influence. Perhaps we should focus our hope on a recent wave of surprising, "out-of-nowhere" nominations at the Oscars. Ever since 2011 (the year the Academy turned Best Picture into a flexible category with as little as 5 and as many as 10 nominees), there's been at least one acting nominee that landed on Oscar's list without being previously nominated at either the Golden Globes, SAG, or BAFTA.
Here are the stats...
2011 - The shocking inclusion of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in Best Picture came with the legendary Max von Sydow in tow for his mute performance in Best Supporting Actor.
2012 - Everyone was surprised by the amount of support Silver Linings Playbook had considering the supporting Actress nomination for Jacki Weaver. (Various precursors had usually included Nicole Kidman in the divisive Lee Daniels film The Paperboy or random shout outs to Dames Judi Dench (Skyall) and Maggie Smith (Marigold Hotel) and even the then lesser known Ann Dowd (who was pitched as supporting in Compliance though she had the film's central role). It's also hard to remember now, but Quvenzhané Wallis had none of the big three precursor nominations before she made the Best Actress line-up for Beasts of the Southern Wild (though she was included at Critics Choice and at the Spirit Awards)
2013 & 2014 stats. Plus 2015 speculation after the jump...
Nothing like a surprise Laura Dern nomination to brighten your day!
2013 - The Wolf of Wall Street broke big late into the race, and thus Jonah Hill didn't get any nominations before Oscar named him a Best Supporting Actor.
2014 - Last year actually had three "out-of-nowhere" nominees. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) in Best Actor, Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) in Best Actress, and Laura Dern (Wild) in Best Supporting Actress.
This trend suggests we will get at least one such surprise (happy or otherwise depending on your tastes) this year, but who will it be?
The BAFTA nominations will be announced this coming Friday by Stephen Fry and Gugu Mbatha-Raw. The BAFTAs usually bring a couple of surprises, so some of the people we;re speculating about here won't be such left of field choices if they show up there. But here are a list of likeliest possibilities to find Oscar's favor without precursor support.
Joan Allen (Room) - If there's gathering momentum for the film it could only help Allen, who is a previously-nominated veteran in a beloved film just like Jacki Weaver was back in 2012.
Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) - There's been a lot of talk about the Spotlight guys cancelling each other out at the Globes and SAG, but Supporting Actor is a wild enough category in terms of disagreements that there could easily be room for either of them. The question, of course, is which one? Mark Ruffalo has the showiest "Oscar clip" but Keaton brings the film the gravitas it needs to resonate.
Tom Hardy (The Revenant) - The last time DiCaprio had an Oscar-nominated role, he brought his co-star an unlikely Supporting Actor nomination. If Jonah Hill could get nominated, why not Hardy who's had quite a talked about year on movie screens?
Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy) - This film keeps popping up when you least expect it (including a Supporting Actor nomination for Paul Dano at the Golden Globes). Supporting Actress is a potentially volatile category IF Oscar really absorbs the "category fraud" conversation that's been extra heated this year. If they do there's plenty of room for surprises.
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) - It is very likely that Rampling, being a respected British veteran, will get a BAFTA nomination in Best Actress. If she doesn't, however, she would be the perfect candidate for the kind of spot Marion Cotillard took last year -- a late year performance that's just too strong to ignore, prompting everyone who sees it to nod there heads in "of course" solidarity.
Has the recent trend convinced you? Who do you want to be the big surprise of January 14 OR who do you fear it might be?