Who Will Be This Year's "Out-of-Nowhere" Oscar Nominee?
Sunday, January 3, 2016 at 8:39AM 
Coco here, ready to talk about the current Oscar race and the surprises that might pop up.
Last week, we discussed SAG's bizarre taste. The math works against it but we're desperately hoping the Academy breaks free of their influence. Perhaps we should focus our hope on a recent wave of surprising, "out-of-nowhere" nominations at the Oscars. Ever since 2011 (the year the Academy turned Best Picture into a flexible category with as little as 5 and as many as 10 nominees), there's been at least one acting nominee that landed on Oscar's list without being previously nominated at either the Golden Globes, SAG, or BAFTA.
Here are the stats...
2011 - The shocking inclusion of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close in Best Picture came with the legendary Max von Sydow in tow for his mute performance in Best Supporting Actor.
2012 - Everyone was surprised by the amount of support Silver Linings Playbook had considering the supporting Actress nomination for Jacki Weaver. (Various precursors had usually included Nicole Kidman in the divisive Lee Daniels film The Paperboy or random shout outs to Dames Judi Dench (Skyall) and Maggie Smith (Marigold Hotel) and even the then lesser known Ann Dowd (who was pitched as supporting in Compliance though she had the film's central role). It's also hard to remember now, but Quvenzhané Wallis had none of the big three precursor nominations before she made the Best Actress line-up for Beasts of the Southern Wild (though she was included at Critics Choice and at the Spirit Awards)
2013 & 2014 stats. Plus 2015 speculation after the jump...
Nothing like a surprise Laura Dern nomination to brighten your day!
2013 - The Wolf of Wall Street broke big late into the race, and thus Jonah Hill didn't get any nominations before Oscar named him a Best Supporting Actor.
2014 - Last year actually had three "out-of-nowhere" nominees. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) in Best Actor, Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) in Best Actress, and Laura Dern (Wild) in Best Supporting Actress.
This trend suggests we will get at least one such surprise (happy or otherwise depending on your tastes) this year, but who will it be?
The BAFTA nominations will be announced this coming Friday by Stephen Fry and Gugu Mbatha-Raw. The BAFTAs usually bring a couple of surprises, so some of the people we;re speculating about here won't be such left of field choices if they show up there. But here are a list of likeliest possibilities to find Oscar's favor without precursor support.
Joan Allen (Room) - If there's gathering momentum for the film it could only help Allen, who is a previously-nominated veteran in a beloved film just like Jacki Weaver was back in 2012.
Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) - There's been a lot of talk about the Spotlight guys cancelling each other out at the Globes and SAG, but Supporting Actor is a wild enough category in terms of disagreements that there could easily be room for either of them. The question, of course, is which one? Mark Ruffalo has the showiest "Oscar clip" but Keaton brings the film the gravitas it needs to resonate.
Tom Hardy (The Revenant) - The last time DiCaprio had an Oscar-nominated role, he brought his co-star an unlikely Supporting Actor nomination. If Jonah Hill could get nominated, why not Hardy who's had quite a talked about year on movie screens?
Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy) - This film keeps popping up when you least expect it (including a Supporting Actor nomination for Paul Dano at the Golden Globes). Supporting Actress is a potentially volatile category IF Oscar really absorbs the "category fraud" conversation that's been extra heated this year. If they do there's plenty of room for surprises.
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) - It is very likely that Rampling, being a respected British veteran, will get a BAFTA nomination in Best Actress. If she doesn't, however, she would be the perfect candidate for the kind of spot Marion Cotillard took last year -- a late year performance that's just too strong to ignore, prompting everyone who sees it to nod there heads in "of course" solidarity.
Has the recent trend convinced you? Who do you want to be the big surprise of January 14 OR who do you fear it might be?
Reader Comments (60)
It might be Joan Allen if "Room" has enough fans within the Academy. She has two good scenes: One where she argues with Brie Larson and another scene where Jacob Tremblay says "I love you" to her. The former is quite showy and the latter is a quiet emotional gut punch.
My random nomination is Alicia Vikander for Supporting Actress...for Ex Machina. Weird how Ruffalo and Keaton are now surprise contenders for Supporting Actor when they seemed like locks 2 months ago.
If they see 45 Years it's hard to imagine Rampling not getting it. My dream lineup for best actress would be Rampling, Larson, Ronan, Blanchett and Mara
I'd be over the moon if Hardy and Banks got in
And while we might consider the category locked, there's also Dame Mags!
I'm thinking one out of "nowhere" surprise is going to be Steve Carell for The Big Short. Michael B. Jordan will probably also get in (financially popular movie that will be showing up on more top 10 lists than the Globe shut-out would imply), but I actually think (in spite of being more visible) only one of "the disappointing movie brigade" (The Danish Girl (critically and financially), Steve Jobs (financially, but massively disappointing on that front), Trumbo (critically, viewed almost entirely as a three star movie), Black Mass (critically) can realistically make it through to nomination morning, and it's probably Cranston. Fassbender's a young, cinematically focused actor, already on the Academy's mind, with a prior nomination to his credit, and is in a computer movie. (If The Social Network couldn't beat The King's Speech in Picture, why is a financially disappointing computer movie going to slice up a Lead Actor slot?) Depp is predictable and repetitive in a crime film, which isn't really the Academy's #1 passion. And The Danish Girl, if it manages it, is a complete coaster nomination because the film's not good enough to fully justify a slot if the actor's already WON. Cranston, meanwhile is old, TV focused (quick, quick, people love this guy but he's old and not really focused on our medium!), hasn't even been nominated before and is in a movie designed to push their buttons. One I'd want to see that would ACTUALLY be out of nowhere is John Cusack netting a supporting actor nod for Chi-Raq, but I know THAT won't happen.
Rami: me too! That would be an all-time great lineup... So get ready for Woman in Gold to spoil it. ;(
Geza Rohrig!
LEAD ACTOR:
Steve Carell seems most likely. Even Ian McKellen maybe.
LEAD ACTRESS:
Rampling, but it wouldn't be a surprise.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Hardy, Keaton, Ruffalo, Del Toro... any number of contenders as there is literally zero consensus beyond Rylance.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Allen makes the most sense. Stewart could get a Cotillard/Riva type nomination. I could see her getting a BAFTA nom which would be interesting. Banks also as a reward for the year.
Geza Rohrig would be a shocking and good addition to the four losing Best Actor nominees.
Cate and Rooney both landing in Lead would be a fun surprise.
I could also see Tangerine splitting things wide open in the same way Beasts of the Southern Wild did with BP and Director nods, a supporting nod for Mya Taylor.
Is Rampling really that shocking? I think she's safely #4 (should be first) and Lawrence is the one in trouble.
The supporting categories are where it seems most likely though.
What about Julie Walters for Supporting Actress? People like Brooklyn, it's made a lot of money, and Walters is beloved. However, I have a suspicion that SAG has predicted the final lineup of Supporting Acresss nominees correctly - Mara, McAdams, Mirren, Vikander, Winslet. Although, even though I thought Laura Linney was awful in Mr. Holmes she might surprise as the Academy loves her.
I believe that Keaton will be nominated in Supp. Actor and he might even pull off a Marcia Gay Harden win since he still has great momentum from Birdman.
I have a feeling that Michael Fassbinder will be the big snub of this year's Oscars. He's an actor who plays viscerally raw roles in intense movies. He'd probably be a lock if he was around in the 70s.
What is the possibility that Stephen Daldry's "Trash" surprises?
It's gonna be Tom Hardy Leo always brings his men along with him - Hill,Housou & Alda
My guess for a likely surprise candidate would be Harrison Ford for Supporting Actor in Star Wars. Longtime movie star in one of his iconic roles.
My dream candidate would be Frederick Wiseman as Best Director. His body of work blows most of these other guys away.
Ha Mike , my biggest worry is category fraud for spoiling the best actress race. But I do think Mirren gets on for Trumbo in supporting no matter what
I would absolutely love it if Geza Rohrig made it in to the top 5. I put a bet on him at 50/1 back in November and would win £500 if he actually wins the award. Which I think he could if he's nominated and people actually watch the film.
I've just never been able to imagine DiCaprio winning the Oscar for The Revenant. As it stands right now, I think this is Cranston's.
Leo even brings his men when he is not nominated Wahlberg & Shannon.
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck (screenplay)
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
I just wish everything wasn't so foretold that we have to beg for the one or two surprise nominees, like Cotillard last year. When was the last time any actual winner was a surprise.
That said, I think Cohen was an integral part of "Brooklyn"'s retro appeal, and likewise for Paulson in "Carol". True supporting players.
I'm doubling down on Charlize Theron for Mad Max.
Mary -- ooh good point. I guess we should be inking Tom Hardy in.
Andrew -- i'm confused by what you mean about "literally zero consensus" around Mark Rylance because he's already won a lot of stuff and all the nominations.
I'd love the out of nowhere nomination to really be out of nowhere. Give us Mya Taylor in Tangerine for Supporting Actress or an original screenplay nomination for It Follows. Something no sane person would predict even if there is a good bit of love for the property. Shit, throw us Charlize Theron in Mad Max: Fury Road.
I'm actually thinking the big surprise is that we're only going to get 6 or 7 Best Picture nominees. A lot of films have support, but I can't see it stretching out to another year of 9 reaching the 5% threshold.
My guess: Michael Caine for Youth #nogutsnoglory ;)
I agree with some of the other posters, I think the same thing about Carell being the surprise nominee. Usually surprise acting noms come with surprise love for a certain movie and I think the big short is that movie this year. Best picture, best actor, and best supporting for Bale are coming I think. I thought all this until I realized Carrel doesn't count as a surprise cause he was a globe nominee. We always forget about comedy don't we?
Agreed with Volvagia: There seems to be so little collective fervor for so many of the precursor Best Actor performances that I can easily see as many as three "surprises" emerging: most likely Steve Carell, Tom Courtenay, and Geza Rohrig. But then you also have Michael B. Jordan, and Ian McKellen, and -- if voters choose to ignore FYC ads -- Paul Dano, Jacob Tremblay, Michael Keaton ... . It's only a bland category this year because there have been so few outside-the-box precursor nominees!
Rampling feels like a lock to me. And I think Joan Allen's chances are being wildly underestimated.
And NATHANIEL R: Matthew actually wrote that there's "zero consensus BEYOND Rylance," implying that he's the only lock. :-)
I'm with Adam Tawfik, Julie Walters and Michael Keaton all the way! I really wish she was getting proper attention for Brooklyn, but maybe she'll at least show up at BAFTA like Imelda Staunton did for Pride. And if he gets nominated I really feel like he could pull it out at the last second. All the categories feel shaky enough to all have some weird nominees the morning of, though.
Like Andrew above, I wouldn't be too surprised to see McKellen and Del Toro sneak in. I'd be really happy if K. Stewart made it in, in part to give the film she's in some attention, in part because I think she's been the victim of a lot of misogyny from people--and she's good in the damn film.
Saint Laurent in for Costume Design
Tom Courtenay in for Best Actor
Oscar Isaac in for Best Supporting Actor
Mike -- thanks. don't know how i misread that.
Carlos -- it's not a bad guess. The Academy loves Caine WAY MORE than anyone else does.
Rami -- i'm coming around to Mirren being a sure thing. I JUST DIDN'T WANT TO.
NYT film critics nomination wish list for the "top 8" categories
They cray cray.
I'm starting to think that Mara and Vikander could be the big snubs. Picture the voters marking their ballots. One marks them for Actress, another for Supporting. The split then effectively halves their chances against the others, who have no category confusion. And then, Vikander also takes votes away with Ex Machina (which is personally my favorite supporting actress performance of the year). Also, Blanchett is on shaky ground as well. Mara has won everything for the two of them since Cannes. Most people believe it's a performance very similar to Blue Jasmine, which she was already celebrated for.
I can't for the life of me, understand why Oscar Isaac is not in the conversation for Ex Machina. THE performance of the year.
@ Paul Outlaw
NYT only consensus choices:
Carol - Picture, Director, Screenplay
Bel Powly - Best Actress
Kristen Stewart - Best Supporting Actress
Inside Out - Screenplay
The Big Short - Screenplay
Tangerine - Screenplay
Jordan! Jordan!
Rampling! Rampling!
My wish for surprise acting nominees:
Actor: Michael B Jordan
Actress: Emily Blunt
Supporting Actor: Nicholas Hoult
Supporting Actress: Rose Byrne
Christian Bale for American Hustle was also quite an out-of-nowhere nominee
No Guts, No Glory
The Force Awakens for Best Picture
Alex Garland (Ex Machina) and Denis Villeneuve (Sicario) in, Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Todd Haynes (Carol) out for Best Director
Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish GIrl) for Best Actress
Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies) in, Matt Damon (The Martian) out for Best Actor
Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina) for Best Supporting Actress
Harrison Ford or Adam Driver (The Force Awakens) and Tom Hardy (The Revenant) for Best Supporting Actor
Predicting Benicio feels less bold than one of the Star Wars fellas, but I kinda feel like/hope that Sicario might be the big surprise appearance.
Supporting actress -- Julie Walters, Brooklyn
She will ride the wave created by Saoirse Ronan, adapted screenplay and a possible best pic nom.
I wanna wake up on Oscar morning and find that once again David O Russell somehow got four actors nominated again. Nearly impossible I know but I'd love the shock and outrage if that happened.
I am really pulling for Lawrence though because I find her phenomenal in the film and maybe one of my favorite performances of the year. Her strongest work by far since Winter's Bone.
Pete -- that would be so pleasant :) but sadly less than 5 real supporting actresses have been discussed at all so it's hard to imagine Oscar voters thinking of them for themselves since critics now refuse to champion actors without gigantic parts.
Tyson -- UGH. I get what you're saying -- i think Joy is much better than its reputation... but frankly it's not well enough acted to deserve that happening! (not that silver linings or american hustle were either but you get my point. I can easily get behind all the Fighter acting nominations though.
Surprises I'd like to see:
ACTRESS: BLYTHE DANNER "I'll See You in My Dreams"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: NICHOLAS HOULT "Mad Max: Fury Road"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: MICKEY O'HAGAN "Tamgerine"
MYA TAYLOR "Tangerine"
Paul Dano in "Love & Mercy"!! I think he's highly underrated as an actor.
Oh, and "Ex Machina" for "Best Picture"
Like many have said, Steve Carell. And I'm totally on board with that cause I thought he was outstanding in the film.
I think the best supporting actor race will be the most volatile. I do think Tom Hardy can make it though.
Also, Charlize Theron. I think she could be the shock of the morning. Not sure I would nominate her but there's no denying that performance is certainly MEMORABLE.
Cynthia Nixon in Supporting Actress. I'm probably the only one who thinks it could happen.
Eddie -- that'd be so awesome. that film really need more time to gestate and get people interested. sad it didn't open in the spring or something and get a revival on dvd or streaming when people could be like "jesus, this acting is great!"
My surprise acting nom:
Best Actress: Nina Hoss (Phoenix)
Best Actor: Geza Rohring (Son of Saul)
Best Supp Actress: Sarah Paulson (Carol)
Best Supp Actor: Oscar Isaac (Ex-Machina)
My dream line-up:
Best Actress: Blanchett, Larson, Mara, Rampling & Ronan
Best Actor: Cranston, Damon, DiCaprio, Fassbender & Redmayne
Best Supp Actress: Fonda, JJL, K-Stew, Vikander (Ex-Machina) & Winslet
Best Supp Actor: Dano, Keaton, Rylance, Shannon & Stallone
There a lot I am rooting for, but I'm kind of surprised by the lack of Tom Hardy support so far. The Revenant is getting a lot of ink and Hardy has been on a role AND he's a total villain, which that category loves. Oh well.
I'm rooting for Hardy as a surprise nominee in Legend, though I think it's about 99.999% not gonna happen since the film outside of him isn't very good.